<p>55 美元的水平在轻质原油市场上一直是一个重要的支撑位。</p>
<h3><strong>原油</strong></h3>
<p>在 12 月份，原油市场总体表现消极，我们继续密切关注下行趋势线。但更重要的是，我认为我们将继续关注 55 美元的水平。55 美元的水平在轻质原油市场上一直是一个主要的支撑位，我认为这仍然是一个主要的争夺战场。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp"/></p>
<p>我们是否能够跌破这个水平，仍然是一个待解答的问题，但我一点也不惊讶在 1 月份看到与 11 月和 12 月相似的走势。坦率地说，过去几个月市场上唯一的生机来自于对俄罗斯的新制裁。而这种看涨行为几乎立即被压制。</p>
<h3><strong>主要阻力</strong></h3>
<p>这表明 62 美元的水平是一个主要的阻力位，我认为需要某种外部压力才能突破。我还相信，从周期性角度来看，1 月份的表现将相对疲软，因为通常情况下，1 月份的市场表现会比较软。所有因素相等，我认为 1 月份的表现将与我们看到的原油市场整体表现相同，每当出现某种反弹时，你都应该在首次出现疲软迹象时卖出。</p>
<p>我不想在短期内做多原油，因为我们有大量的供应来自圭亚那和美国，仅举这两个地方。换句话说，市场上充斥着原油，因此认为价格会在短期内上涨是违反直觉的。是的，我认为对俄罗斯会有更多的制裁，但归根结底，俄罗斯的石油仍然会流入欧洲和亚洲，甚至在较小程度上流入美国。所以，这一切都是一个空壳游戏。市场上有大量的原油，我认为我们仍然会看到大量的卖压。</p>
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<p>WTI 原油市场目前在 55 美元水平面临显著的支撑位，预计在 2026 年 1 月将继续成为争夺战场。尽管近期对俄罗斯的制裁带来了短暂的看涨行为，但市场整体呈现负面趋势，62 美元是主要阻力位。由于季节性趋势，1 月份预计将表现疲软，加上来自圭亚那和美国等地区的供应充足，价格不太可能很快上涨。随着市场仍然过剩，卖压预计将持续</p>

<p>The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>55 美元的水平在轻质原油市场上一直是一个重要的支撑位。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Crude Oil</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>原油</strong></h3>
</div><p>Crude oil markets have been generally negative during December as we continue to pay close attention to a downtrend line. But perhaps more importantly, I think we're going to continue to pay a lot of attention to the $55 level. The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market, and I think that continues to be a major battleground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月份，原油市场总体表现消极，我们继续密切关注下行趋势线。但更重要的是，我认为我们将继续关注 55 美元的水平。55 美元的水平在轻质原油市场上一直是一个主要的支撑位，我认为这仍然是一个主要的争夺战场。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp"/></p>
<p>Whether or not we can break down below, there is still a question that remains to be answered, but I would not be surprised at all to see more of the same action in January that we have seen in both November and December. Quite frankly, the only sign of life in this market over the last couple of months has been due to new sanctions against Russia. And that bullish behavior was squashed almost immediately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们是否能够跌破这个水平，仍然是一个待解答的问题，但我一点也不惊讶在 1 月份看到与 11 月和 12 月相似的走势。坦率地说，过去几个月市场上唯一的生机来自于对俄罗斯的新制裁。而这种看涨行为几乎立即被压制。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Major Resistance</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>主要阻力</strong></h3>
</div><p>This has shown that the $62 level is a major resistance barrier that I think is going to take some type of external pressure to break above. I also believe that January will end up being fairly weak from a cyclical standpoint as well, as typically speaking, January is somewhat soft. All things being equal, I think that January will behave in the same way we have seen the oil market behave in general, that anytime we get some type of rally, you're looking to sell the first signs of exhaustion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明 62 美元的水平是一个主要的阻力位，我认为需要某种外部压力才能突破。我还相信，从周期性角度来看，1 月份的表现将相对疲软，因为通常情况下，1 月份的市场表现会比较软。所有因素相等，我认为 1 月份的表现将与我们看到的原油市场整体表现相同，每当出现某种反弹时，你都应该在首次出现疲软迹象时卖出。</p>
</div><p>I do not want to get long of oil anytime soon because we do have massive amounts of supply coming out of Guyana and the United States, just to name a couple of places. In other words, the market is awash in oil, and therefore, it's counterintuitive to think that prices will rise anytime soon. Yes, there will be more sanctions against Russia, would be my bet, but really, at the end of the day, Russian oil still ends up in Europe and Asia, and to a lesser extent, even the United States. So, it's all a shell game. We have plenty of oil out there. I think we continue to see a lot of overhang as far as selling pressure is concerned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不想在短期内做多原油，因为我们有大量的供应来自圭亚那和美国，仅举这两个地方。换句话说，市场上充斥着原油，因此认为价格会在短期内上涨是违反直觉的。是的，我认为对俄罗斯会有更多的制裁，但归根结底，俄罗斯的石油仍然会流入欧洲和亚洲，甚至在较小程度上流入美国。所以，这一切都是一个空壳游戏。市场上有大量的原油，我认为我们仍然会看到大量的卖压。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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</div>

2026 年 1 月 WTI 原油价格预测