<p><strong>公司：</strong> 滴滴全球公司</p>
<p><strong>股票代码：</strong> DIDIY (OTC ADR)</p>
<p><strong>撰写时价格：</strong> $5.45</p>
<p>** 日期:**2025 年 12 月 24 日</p>
<p><strong>投资论点</strong></p>
<p><strong>公司业务概述</strong></p>
<p>滴滴全球在中国运营着主导的打车平台，这是全球最大的打车市场，并在其运营的每个主要国际市场（包括巴西和墨西哥）中占据领先地位（第一或第二）。该业务轻资产、盈利且已实现规模化。</p>
<p><strong>为何股票今天被低估</strong></p>
<p>滴滴的定价并不是因为其业务疲弱，而是被视为不可投资的证券。在被迫从纽约证券交易所退市后，滴滴在一个排除大多数长期机构基金、基准任务和被限制持有 OTC 或粉单证券的投资者的 OTC 状态中交易。这种由于流动性不足导致的折价主导了估值。</p>
<p><strong>为何在 12 个月内出现两种结果是合理的</strong></p>
<p>朝着 <strong>香港重新上市</strong> 或正式监管批准的可信举措将恢复机构投资者的进入，并使交易条件正常化。滴滴并不需要盈利加速，只需从结构性排除转变为政治上被容忍和可交易的状态。</p>
<p>仅这一转变就可以在一年内合理地将股权重新定价 <strong>50-100%</strong>。</p>
<p><strong>估值锚</strong></p>
<p>一个有用的方式来锚定滴滴的估值是将其与全球打车同行进行比较，假设滴滴是流动的并且可以被机构投资者访问。</p>
<p><strong>收入规模（大致估算）：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>滴滴全球: ~$300 亿</li>
<li>优步科技: ~$4550 亿</li>
<li>Grab 控股: ~$120 亿</li>
</ul>
<p>滴滴的规模远大于 Grab，并且在运营规模上更接近优步，同时在其核心市场的主导地位超过两者。</p>
<p><strong>市值：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Grab: ~$200 亿</li>
<li>优步: ~$1700 亿</li>
</ul>
<p>考虑到滴滴的规模、盈利能力和市场领导地位，一旦市场准入恢复，<strong>在 Grab 和优步之间的正常化估值</strong> 是 <strong>合理的</strong>。这意味着市值范围为$500-1000 亿，足以支持股权价值从当前水平翻倍。</p>
<p><strong>催化剂</strong></p>
<p>滴滴最可能的最终状态不是被迫从 OTC 迁移到香港，而是类似于阿里巴巴或网易的可流通双重上市结构。根据滴滴的投资者关系，现有的 <strong>OTC 股票</strong> 预计将通过经纪请求机制 <strong>转换为香港上市股票</strong>，而不是自动转换。这种结构很重要，因为：</p>
<ul>
<li>套利将市场连接起来，防止持续的估值差距</li>
<li>投资者群体大幅扩大，因为能够持有香港上市股票的投资者池远大于被允许持有 OTC 证券的投资者</li>
</ul>
<p>即使是无法直接持有香港股票的投资者，也应通过价格趋同受益。</p>
<p>这种重新定价有强有力的先例。阿里巴巴、京东、网易和百度在香港的二次上市后都看到估值韧性改善，而中国移动在纽约证券交易所退市后重新上市香港后经历了显著的重新评级。在每种情况下，关键驱动因素不是基本面改善，而是 <strong>恢复流动性和政治正常化</strong>。</p>
<p>在 12 个月的时间范围内，以下发展可能合理地解锁价值：</p>
<ul>
<li>与香港重新上市相关的正式公告或备案</li>
<li>明确的监管批准或正常化的公开信号</li>
<li>OTC 和香港股票之间的可流通性确认</li>
<li>纳入香港跟踪指数或符合南向资本流动的资格</li>
<li>恢复分析师覆盖和机构参与</li>
</ul>
<p>重要的是，完成并不是必需的。仅仅是可信的进展通常就足以触发急剧的重新定价。</p>
<p><strong>熊市情景</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>香港重新上市无限期延迟</li>
<li>监管收紧或网络安全行动的重新出现</li>
<li>国家影响限制股权上行空间</li>
<li>股票仍然停滞在 OTC 状态</li>
</ul>
<p>在这种情况下，股票可能停滞或进一步下跌。这是一个二元的制度风险论点，而不是传统的价值投资论点。</p>
<p><strong>投资者活动</strong></p>
<p>尽管滴滴处于 OTC 状态，但几位受尊敬的长期投资者一直在增持滴滴：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund (交易，投资组合)</strong>，一家专注于亚洲的新兴市场的长期管理者，全年持续买入。</li>
<li><strong>Robert Vinall</strong>（RV Capital），他管理着高度集中、以所有者为导向的投资组合，为客户持有滴滴。</li>
</ul>
<p>这种持股结构表明，一些投资者并不是将滴滴视为短期交易，而是作为一个主导平台，其估值因市场准入限制而被人为压制。</p>
<p><strong>最后说明</strong></p>
<p>我提交这个想法 <strong>出于讨论</strong>，作为编辑而非为了奖项，而是为了促进讨论。滴滴是一个有用的案例研究，展示了市场准入、监管正常化和上市机制如何主导价格走势，即使基础业务已经强劲。</p>
<p>这不是：</p>
<ul>
<li>经典的价值投资论点</li>
<li>不是长期复合增长的论点</li>
<li>但在比赛规则下，由于波动性、结构性错误定价和单一主导催化剂，成为一个可信的在一年内翻倍的候选者</li>
</ul>

滴滴出行

<p>滴滴出行（DiDi Global Inc.）在中国运营着领先的打车平台，由于在纽约证券交易所退市后其场外交易（OTC）状态，导致其股价被低估。如果滴滴实现香港重新上市或获得监管批准，股价在一年内可能会增长 50-100%。与 Uber 和 Grab 等同行相比，滴滴的收入规模使其在市场上处于有利位置，暗示其潜在市值为 500 亿至 1000 亿美元。关键催化因素包括关于重新上市的正式公告和改善市场准入，而风险则包括监管延迟和持续的场外交易限制。一些投资者正在增持股份，认为滴滴被低估</p>

<p><strong>Company:</strong> DiDi Global Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>公司：</strong> 滴滴全球公司</p>
</div><p><strong>Ticker:</strong> DIDIY (OTC ADR)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>股票代码：</strong> DIDIY (OTC ADR)</p>
</div><p><strong>Price</strong> at time of writing: $5.45</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>撰写时价格：</strong> $5.45</p>
</div><p><strong>Date:</strong> December 24th 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>** 日期:**2025 年 12 月 24 日</p>
</div><p><strong>Thesis</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>投资论点</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>What the company does</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>公司业务概述</strong></p>
</div><p>DiDi Global operates the dominant ride-hailing platform in China the world's largest ride-hailing market and holds leading positions (No. 1 or No. 2) in every major international market where it operates, including Brazil and Mexico. The business is asset-light, profitable, and already scaled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滴滴全球在中国运营着主导的打车平台，这是全球最大的打车市场，并在其运营的每个主要国际市场（包括巴西和墨西哥）中占据领先地位（第一或第二）。该业务轻资产、盈利且已实现规模化。</p>
</div><p><strong>Why the stock is mispriced today</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>为何股票今天被低估</strong></p>
</div><p>DiDi is not priced as a weak business. It is priced as an uninvestable security. Following its forced NYSE delisting, DiDi trades in an OTC limbo that excludes most long-only institutional funds, benchmark mandates, and investors restricted from owning OTC or pink-sheet securities. This plumbing discount not operating performance dominates valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滴滴的定价并不是因为其业务疲弱，而是被视为不可投资的证券。在被迫从纽约证券交易所退市后，滴滴在一个排除大多数长期机构基金、基准任务和被限制持有 OTC 或粉单证券的投资者的 OTC 状态中交易。这种由于流动性不足导致的折价主导了估值。</p>
</div><p><strong>Why a 2 outcome within 12 months is plausible</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>为何在 12 个月内出现两种结果是合理的</strong></p>
</div><p>A credible move toward a <strong>Hong Kong relisting</strong> or formal regulatory clearance to pursue one would restore institutional access and normalize trading conditions. DiDi does not need earnings acceleration. It only needs to move from structurally excluded to politically tolerated and tradable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>朝着 <strong>香港重新上市</strong> 或正式监管批准的可信举措将恢复机构投资者的进入，并使交易条件正常化。滴滴并不需要盈利加速，只需从结构性排除转变为政治上被容忍和可交易的状态。</p>
</div><p>That shift alone can plausibly reprice the equity by <strong>50100% within a year</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅这一转变就可以在一年内合理地将股权重新定价 <strong>50-100%</strong>。</p>
</div><p><strong>Valuation Anchor</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>估值锚</strong></p>
</div><p>A useful way to anchor DiDi's valuation is to compare it to global ride-hailing peers on both scale and dominance, assuming DiDi were liquid and institutionally accessible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个有用的方式来锚定滴滴的估值是将其与全球打车同行进行比较，假设滴滴是流动的并且可以被机构投资者访问。</p>
</div><p><strong>Revenue scale (approximate):</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>收入规模（大致估算）：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>DiDi Global: ~$30B</li>
<li>Uber Technologies: ~$4550B</li>
<li>Grab Holdings: ~$12B</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>滴滴全球: ~$300 亿</li>
<li>优步科技: ~$4550 亿</li>
<li>Grab 控股: ~$120 亿</li>
</ul>
</div><p>DiDi is vastly larger than Grab and closer to Uber in operating scale, while being more dominant in its core market than either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滴滴的规模远大于 Grab，并且在运营规模上更接近优步，同时在其核心市场的主导地位超过两者。</p>
</div><p><strong>Market capitalizations:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市值：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Grab: ~$20B</li>
<li>Uber: ~$170B</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Grab: ~$200 亿</li>
<li>优步: ~$1700 亿</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Given DiDi's scale, profitability, and market leadership, a <strong>normalized valuation between Grab and Uber</strong> is <strong>reasonable</strong> once market access is restored. That implies a $50100B market cap range, which comfortably supports a doubling of equity value from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到滴滴的规模、盈利能力和市场领导地位，一旦市场准入恢复，<strong>在 Grab 和优步之间的正常化估值</strong> 是 <strong>合理的</strong>。这意味着市值范围为$500-1000 亿，足以支持股权价值从当前水平翻倍。</p>
</div><p><strong>Catalyst</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>催化剂</strong></p>
</div><p>The most likely end state for DiDi is not a forced migration from OTC to Hong Kong, but a fungible dual-listing structure, similar to Alibaba or NetEase. According to DiDi's investor relations, existing <strong>OTC shares</strong> are expected to be <strong>convertible into Hong Konglisted shares</strong> through a broker request mechanism, rather than automatic conversion. This structure matters because:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>滴滴最可能的最终状态不是被迫从 OTC 迁移到香港，而是类似于阿里巴巴或网易的可流通双重上市结构。根据滴滴的投资者关系，现有的 <strong>OTC 股票</strong> 预计将通过经纪请求机制 <strong>转换为香港上市股票</strong>，而不是自动转换。这种结构很重要，因为：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Arbitrage links the markets, preventing persistent valuation gaps</li>
<li>The investor universe expands materially, as the pool of investors able to own HK-listed equities is far larger than those permitted to own OTC securities</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>套利将市场连接起来，防止持续的估值差距</li>
<li>投资者群体大幅扩大，因为能够持有香港上市股票的投资者池远大于被允许持有 OTC 证券的投资者</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Even investors unable to hold Hong Kong shares directly should benefit through price convergence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是无法直接持有香港股票的投资者，也应通过价格趋同受益。</p>
</div><p>There is strong precedent for this kind of repricing. Alibaba, JD.com, NetEase, and Baidu all saw valuation resilience improve after secondary Hong Kong listings, while China Mobile experienced a material re-rating after relisting in Hong Kong following NYSE delisting. In each case, the key driver was not improved fundamentals, but <strong>restored liquidity and political normalization</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种重新定价有强有力的先例。阿里巴巴、京东、网易和百度在香港的二次上市后都看到估值韧性改善，而中国移动在纽约证券交易所退市后重新上市香港后经历了显著的重新评级。在每种情况下，关键驱动因素不是基本面改善，而是 <strong>恢复流动性和政治正常化</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Within a 12-month horizon, the following developments could plausibly unlock value:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 个月的时间范围内，以下发展可能合理地解锁价值：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A formal announcement or filing related to a Hong Kong relisting</li>
<li>Explicit regulatory clearance or public signals of normalization</li>
<li>Confirmation of fungibility between OTC and HK shares</li>
<li>Inclusion in Hong Kongtracked indices or eligibility for southbound capital flows</li>
<li>Restoration of analyst coverage and institutional participation</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>与香港重新上市相关的正式公告或备案</li>
<li>明确的监管批准或正常化的公开信号</li>
<li>OTC 和香港股票之间的可流通性确认</li>
<li>纳入香港跟踪指数或符合南向资本流动的资格</li>
<li>恢复分析师覆盖和机构参与</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Importantly, completion is not required. Credible progress alone is often enough to trigger a sharp repricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，完成并不是必需的。仅仅是可信的进展通常就足以触发急剧的重新定价。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bear Case</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>熊市情景</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Hong Kong relisting delayed indefinitely</li>
<li>Renewed regulatory tightening or cybersecurity actions</li>
<li>State influence caps equity upside</li>
<li>Stock remains stuck in OTC limbo</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>香港重新上市无限期延迟</li>
<li>监管收紧或网络安全行动的重新出现</li>
<li>国家影响限制股权上行空间</li>
<li>股票仍然停滞在 OTC 状态</li>
</ul>
</div><p>In this scenario, the stock may stagnate or decline further. This is a binary, regime-risk thesis, not a traditional value investment thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，股票可能停滞或进一步下跌。这是一个二元的制度风险论点，而不是传统的价值投资论点。</p>
</div><p><strong>Guru Activity</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>投资者活动</strong></p>
</div><p>Several respected long-term investors have been accumulating DiDi despite its OTC status:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管滴滴处于 OTC 状态，但几位受尊敬的长期投资者一直在增持滴滴：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund (Trades, Portfolio) (Trades, Portfolio)</strong>, a long-tenured Asia-focused emerging-market manager, has been a steady buyer throughout the year.</li>
<li><strong>Robert Vinall</strong> (RV Capital), who runs a highly concentrated, owner-oriented portfolio, owns DiDi for his clients.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund (交易，投资组合)</strong>，一家专注于亚洲的新兴市场的长期管理者，全年持续买入。</li>
<li><strong>Robert Vinall</strong>（RV Capital），他管理着高度集中、以所有者为导向的投资组合，为客户持有滴滴。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>This ownership profile suggests some investors are underwriting DiDi not as a near-term trade, but as a dominant platform whose valuation is artificially suppressed by market-access constraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种持股结构表明，一些投资者并不是将滴滴视为短期交易，而是作为一个主导平台，其估值因市场准入限制而被人为压制。</p>
</div><p><strong>Final Note</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>最后说明</strong></p>
</div><p>I am submitting this idea <strong>out of contest</strong> as an editor not for prizes, but to contribute to the discussion. DiDi is a useful case study in how market access, regulatory normalization, and listing mechanics can dominate price action even when the underlying business is already strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我提交这个想法 <strong>出于讨论</strong>，作为编辑而非为了奖项，而是为了促进讨论。滴滴是一个有用的案例研究，展示了市场准入、监管正常化和上市机制如何主导价格走势，即使基础业务已经强劲。</p>
</div><p>This is:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不是：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Not a classic value investment thesis</li>
<li>Not a long-term compounder thesis</li>
<li>But a credible double-within-a-year candidate under the contest rules due to volatility, structural mispricing, and a single dominant catalyst</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>经典的价值投资论点</li>
<li>不是长期复合增长的论点</li>
<li>但在比赛规则下，由于波动性、结构性错误定价和单一主导催化剂，成为一个可信的在一年内翻倍的候选者</li>
</ul>
</div>

滴滴出行全球：从不可投资到再次值得拥有