<p>系好安全带，华尔街的预测模型预计到 2026 年将进一步上涨，尽管 2025 年标准普尔 500 指数的表现令人印象深刻，达到 <strong>16.39%</strong>，但类似的高峰不会很快重现。</p>
<p>该指数在 2025 年收于 6,845.5 点，标志着连续第三年收益超过 10% 的前所未有的成就，这与 1990 年代的繁荣表现相呼应。</p>
<p>然而，分析师警告称，关税、<strong>人工智能</strong> 的乐观情绪以及美联储政策的转变可能会使这一看涨趋势变得更加不稳定。</p>
<h2>三连冠设定了高标准</h2>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年经历了最动荡但回报丰厚的一年。四月因总统关税计划的激烈而突然下跌，挑战了市场的稳定性，但一旦贸易威胁消除，该指数便迅速恢复。</p>
<p>尽管存在衰退担忧，人工智能的乐观情绪、利率降低以及经济的持续增长都促成了美国股市牛市自 2022 年 10 月的开始。</p>
<p>在特朗普政府四月宣布高于预期的关税后，股市经历了一年动荡，股价暴跌。</p>
<p>在 2024 年上涨 23% 和 2023 年上涨 24% 之后，基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）开启了新的一页，在 2025 年上涨超过 <strong>16%</strong>。</p>
<p>Yardeni Research 的总裁 Ed Yardeni 预计到 2026 年底，标准普尔 500 指数将上涨至 7,700 点，暗示几乎 <strong>12.5%</strong> 的增长。</p>
<p><strong>Yardeni 在一份报告中表示</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>“我们对 2026 年底标准普尔 500 指数的目标假设经济和盈利将保持韧性。由于衰退担忧或实际衰退引发的严重修正或熊市的可能性仍然较低，仅为 20%。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>华尔街的水晶球</h2>
<p>预测性预测也高度分散，表明市场往往处于二元状态。</p>
<ul>
<li>美国银行预测 2026 年将达到 7,100 点，代表微不足道的增长 3.72%。</li>
<li>德意志银行预测将达到 8,000 点，暗示上涨 16.87%。</li>
</ul>
<p>高盛的 Peter Oppenheimer 预计回报将低于 2025 年，但解释称由于牛市的增长，估值正在上升，标准普尔的前瞻市盈率为 22.5 倍，显著高于长期平均的 17 倍。</p>
<p><strong>根据 Yardeni 的说法</strong>，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>我们的目标基于经济状况和盈利将保持健康。Fundstrat 的 Hardika Singh 补充说，股市处于看涨状态，市场充满动力，没有刹车，温和的通胀、利率下降和盈利增加使其更像是股市的 “金发姑娘” 世界。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>清晰的前景</h2>
<p>未来的道路取决于盈利增长是否能够继续超过估值。如果基于人工智能的资本支出投资成为现实，牛市将是合理的，即通过 Nvidia 数据中心的收入证明，2026 财年第一季度为 <strong>391 亿美元</strong>，只有在盈利高于 22.5 倍的估值时，牛市才会成立。</p>
<p>最重要的是，市场参与的广度至关重要；七大巨头占据了 <strong>35% 的标准普尔权重</strong>，因此必须向滞后者轮换以维持长期表现。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者，应更加重视高质量的 <strong>人工智能股票</strong>、地缘政治对冲，并关注劳动力市场数据。</p>
<p>尽管存在偏向积极的上行空间，但预计会有波动，建议进行战略定位以适应上行牛市的反弹和下行熊市的急剧波动。</p>

<p>华尔街预测标准普尔 500 指数将持续上涨，预计到 2025 年将增长 16.39%，收于 6,845.5 点。分析师警告称，关税、对人工智能的乐观情绪以及美联储政策变化可能会引发市场波动。Ed Yardeni 预测 2026 年底目标为 7,700 点，而美国银行和德意志银行分别预测为 7,100 点和 8,000 点。市场的未来取决于盈利增长超过估值，重点关注人工智能投资和优质股票。尽管前景乐观，但预计将出现波动，投资者需要进行战略布局</p>

<p>Buckle up, the predicting models of Wall Street project further rise in 2026 with the impressive performance of the S&amp;P 500 by <strong>16.39% in 2025</strong>, although a similar peak will not be repeated soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>系好安全带，华尔街的预测模型预计到 2026 年将进一步上涨，尽管 2025 年标准普尔 500 指数的表现令人印象深刻，达到 <strong>16.39%</strong>，但类似的高峰不会很快重现。</p>
</div><p>The index closed 2025 at 6,845.5 points, thus marking an unprecedented third consecutive year of gains above 10%, which echoed the thriving 1990s performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指数在 2025 年收于 6,845.5 点，标志着连续第三年收益超过 10% 的前所未有的成就，这与 1990 年代的繁荣表现相呼应。</p>
</div><p>However, analysts warn that tariffs, <strong>artificial-intelligence</strong> optimism and Fed switch in policy may turn this bullish trend into a more unstable sequence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，分析师警告称，关税、<strong>人工智能</strong> 的乐观情绪以及美联储政策的转变可能会使这一看涨趋势变得更加不稳定。</p>
</div><h2>A Three Peat that Sets a High Bar</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三连冠设定了高标准</h2>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 delivered one of its most turbulent yet rewarding years in 2025. A sudden fall in April triggered by the intensive presidential tariff plans challenged the strength of market bearings but as soon as the threats of trade were eliminated, the index recovered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年经历了最动荡但回报丰厚的一年。四月因总统关税计划的激烈而突然下跌，挑战了市场的稳定性，但一旦贸易威胁消除，该指数便迅速恢复。</p>
</div><p>AI optimism, interest rate reductions, and the economy’s continued growth in spite of recession concerns have all contributed to the October 2022 start of the U.S. stock market bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在衰退担忧，人工智能的乐观情绪、利率降低以及经济的持续增长都促成了美国股市牛市自 2022 年 10 月的开始。</p>
</div><p>The gains came during a turbulent year in which shares plummeted following the Trump administration’s announcement in April of higher-than-expected tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普政府四月宣布高于预期的关税后，股市经历了一年动荡，股价暴跌。</p>
</div><p>After rising 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2023, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX), opened a new tab, increasing by more than <strong>16% in 2025</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年上涨 23% 和 2023 年上涨 24% 之后，基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）开启了新的一页，在 2025 年上涨超过 <strong>16%</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, expects the S&amp;P 500 to rise to 7,700 at year-end 2026, suggesting a gain of almost <strong>12.5%</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yardeni Research 的总裁 Ed Yardeni 预计到 2026 年底，标准普尔 500 指数将上涨至 7,700 点，暗示几乎 <strong>12.5%</strong> 的增长。</p>
</div><p><strong>Yardeni said</strong> in a note</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Yardeni 在一份报告中表示</strong></p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Our year-end 2026 target for the S&amp;P 500 assumes that the economy and earnings will remain resilient, Our odds of a severe correction or a bear market, triggered by either recession fears or an actual recession, remain low at 20%.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“我们对 2026 年底标准普尔 500 指数的目标假设经济和盈利将保持韧性。由于衰退担忧或实际衰退引发的严重修正或熊市的可能性仍然较低，仅为 20%。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Wall Street’s Crystal Ball</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街的水晶球</h2>
</div><p>The predictive forecasts are also highly dispersed as they are indicative that the market tends to be in a dualistic form.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测性预测也高度分散，表明市场往往处于二元状态。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The Bank of America forecasts a 7,100-point level in 2026 representing a trivial growth by 3.72%.</li>
<li>The Deutsche bank forecasts an 8,000-point level implying an up-side by 16.87 %.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国银行预测 2026 年将达到 7,100 点，代表微不足道的增长 3.72%。</li>
<li>德意志银行预测将达到 8,000 点，暗示上涨 16.87%。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Peter Oppenheimer of Goldman Sachs would expect lower returns than those of 2025 but explains by their growing bull market where valuations are running and the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S and P is at 22.5x, significantly higher than the long-term average of 17x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛的 Peter Oppenheimer 预计回报将低于 2025 年，但解释称由于牛市的增长，估值正在上升，标准普尔的前瞻市盈率为 22.5 倍，显著高于长期平均的 17 倍。</p>
</div><p><strong>According to Yardeni</strong>,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>根据 Yardeni 的说法</strong>，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>our target is based on the economic condition and profits will be healthy. Fundstrat Hardika Singh adds that the stock market is in a bullish position and says that the market is full of gas, no brakes, benign inflation, declining rates and increasing earnings all make it be more like a Goldilocks world to equities.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我们的目标基于经济状况和盈利将保持健康。Fundstrat 的 Hardika Singh 补充说，股市处于看涨状态，市场充满动力，没有刹车，温和的通胀、利率下降和盈利增加使其更像是股市的 “金发姑娘” 世界。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Crystal Clear Outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>清晰的前景</h2>
</div><p>The path forward hinges on whether earnings growth can continue to outpace valuations. The bulls will be valid in case AI-based investments on capital spending become a reality, i.e. demonstrated by Nvidia data center revenue that in FY 2026 Q1 is <strong>$39.1 billion</strong> and the bulls will be valid only in case earnings are higher than valuations at 22.5x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来的道路取决于盈利增长是否能够继续超过估值。如果基于人工智能的资本支出投资成为现实，牛市将是合理的，即通过 Nvidia 数据中心的收入证明，2026 财年第一季度为 <strong>391 亿美元</strong>，只有在盈利高于 22.5 倍的估值时，牛市才会成立。</p>
</div><p>Most importantly, the width of the market participation is decisive; the Magnificent Seven represents <strong>35% of the S&amp;P weight</strong>, making the cycling to the laggards necessary to maintain long-term performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是，市场参与的广度至关重要；七大巨头占据了 <strong>35% 的标准普尔权重</strong>，因此必须向滞后者轮换以维持长期表现。</p>
</div><p>For long-horizon investors ought to put more emphasis on the high quality <strong>AI stocks</strong>, geopolitical hedge, and watch the labor market data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者，应更加重视高质量的 <strong>人工智能股票</strong>、地缘政治对冲，并关注劳动力市场数据。</p>
</div><p>In spite of a skewed positive upside, volatility is to be expected, strategic positioning is recommended to accommodate the upside bull rallies and downside bear precipitous movements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在偏向积极的上行空间，但预计会有波动，建议进行战略定位以适应上行牛市的反弹和下行熊市的急剧波动。</p>
</div>

2026 年股票市场展望：牛市能否在估值和波动的挑战下存活？