<p>永久去中心化交易所（DEX）领域在 Lighter 推出其代币 LIT 后，正迎来新的动态转变。</p>
<p>这款以隐私为重点、基于以太坊的永久去中心化交易所最近在永久合约交易量方面表现突出，专家将这一现象归因于空投农民。</p>
<p>随着农作几乎结束，且已有 6.25 亿美元的 LIT 分发给早期用户，分析师预测这些交易者将转向另一个平台，尤其是 Hyperliquid [HYPE]。</p>
<p>根据分析公司 Bubblemaps 的说法，这一预测可能在 TGE（代币生成事件）后 DEX 的大规模提款中得到了验证。</p>
<p>该公司指出，在 TGE 后一天，DEX 提款达到了 2.5 亿美元。在资本外流的背景下，Bubblemaps 提出了疑问，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“所有的农民都离开了吗？”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>考虑到存款，DEX 的整体净流出约为 1.01 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Net-Deposits.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Net-Deposits.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Artemis</p>
<p>对此，一位用户反驳 Bubblemaps，称提款是 “正常的”。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“这算是正常的。看到 6.5 亿美元的空投分配，2.5 亿美元并不算多。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>另一位分析师反驳称，提款并非来自交易者，而是来自流动性提供者。</p>
<h2>Lighter 的永久合约交易量放缓</h2>
<p>也就是说，自 11 月底以来，Lighter 的永久合约交易量急剧下降。每周交易量从 660 亿美元下降到 12 月底的 310 亿美元——下降了 50%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Perpetuals-Volume.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Perpetuals-Volume.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Artemis</p>
<p>值得指出的是，Hyperliquid 的永久合约交易量在同一时期也下降了一半，从 410 亿美元降至 260 亿美元。简而言之，得出 Lighter 用户已经有效转向 Hyperliquid 的结论还为时尚早。</p>
<h2>LIT 价格表现混合</h2>
<p>尽管如此，6.25 亿美元的空投对该代币施加了显著的卖压。在首次亮相后，LIT 从 3.30 美元跌至 2.20 美元，跌幅达 32%。在撰写本文时，这种山寨币已回升 18%，达到 2.6 美元。</p>
<p>事实上，另一位分析师预测 LIT 可能会进一步上涨，引用了 HYPE 和 ASTER 在各自推出后的历史表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/LITUSDT.P_2026-01-01_14-55-26.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/LITUSDT.P_2026-01-01_14-55-26.png"/></p>
<p>来源：LIT/USDT，TradingView</p>
<p>与此同时，在衍生品市场上，做空该山寨币的人数略多于买入的人。根据 Coinglass 的数据，54% 的 Binance 顶级账户在对 LIT 做空，而只有 45% 在关注其反弹。这突显了短期的看跌压力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-01-154931.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-01-154931.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>Lighter 在其 LIT 代币推出后记录了显著的资本外流。</em></li>
<li><em>短期头寸略微倾向于看跌，因为做空的押注压倒了做多。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

<p>Lighter 最近推出的 LIT 代币导致其去中心化交易所（DEX）出现 2.5 亿美元的资金外流，分析师指出在代币生成事件（TGE）后资金的显著撤回。尽管进行了 6.25 亿美元的空投，LIT 的价格最初下跌了 32%，但随后略有回升。永续合约交易量也显著下降，引发了对用户留存率的质疑。市场情绪似乎偏向看跌，做空 LIT 的交易者数量超过了买入者，表明该代币的表现可能面临挑战</p>

<p>The perpetual DEX (decentralized exchange) space is set to enter a new dynamic shift after Lighter launched its token LIT.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永久去中心化交易所（DEX）领域在 Lighter 推出其代币 LIT 后，正迎来新的动态转变。</p>
</div><p>The privacy-focused, Ethereum-based perp DEX has been punching above its weight in terms of perp volumes lately, a move that experts attributed to aidrop farmers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这款以隐私为重点、基于以太坊的永久去中心化交易所最近在永久合约交易量方面表现突出，专家将这一现象归因于空投农民。</p>
</div><p>With farming almost over and after $625 million LIT has been shared with early users, analysts projected that these traders will move to another platform, especially Hyperliquid [HYPE].</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着农作几乎结束，且已有 6.25 亿美元的 LIT 分发给早期用户，分析师预测这些交易者将转向另一个平台，尤其是 Hyperliquid [HYPE]。</p>
</div><p>According to the analytics firm Bubblemaps, the projection may have been validated amid massive withdrawals from the DEX post-TGE (token generation event).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据分析公司 Bubblemaps 的说法，这一预测可能在 TGE（代币生成事件）后 DEX 的大规模提款中得到了验证。</p>
</div><p>The firm noted that $250M was withdrawn from the DEX a day after TGE. Amid the capital flight, Bubblemaps wondered,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司指出，在 TGE 后一天，DEX 提款达到了 2.5 亿美元。在资本外流的背景下，Bubblemaps 提出了疑问，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Are all the farmers leaving?”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“所有的农民都离开了吗？”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Factoring in the deposits, the overall net outflow from DEX amounted to approximately $101 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到存款，DEX 的整体净流出约为 1.01 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Net-Deposits.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Net-Deposits.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Artemis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Artemis</p>
</div><p>In response, one user clapped back at Bubblemaps, calling the withdrawals “normal.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对此，一位用户反驳 Bubblemaps，称提款是 “正常的”。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“That’s kind of normal. Seeing the $650M airdrop distribution, $250m ain’t huge.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“这算是正常的。看到 6.5 亿美元的空投分配，2.5 亿美元并不算多。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Another analyst countered that the withdrawals weren’t from traders but from liquidity providers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一位分析师反驳称，提款并非来自交易者，而是来自流动性提供者。</p>
</div><h2>Lighter perp volumes slow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lighter 的永久合约交易量放缓</h2>
</div><p>That said, Lighter’s perp volumes have fallen off the cliff since late November. The weekly volume has declined from $66 billion to $31 billion in late December – A 50% drop in traction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，自 11 月底以来，Lighter 的永久合约交易量急剧下降。每周交易量从 660 亿美元下降到 12 月底的 310 亿美元——下降了 50%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Perpetuals-Volume.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Lighter-Perpetuals-Volume.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Artemis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Artemis</p>
</div><p>Worth pointing out, however, that Hyperliquid’s perp volumes also dropped by half from $41 billion to $26 billion over the same period. In short, it was still too early to conclude that Lighter users have effectively switched to Hyperliquid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得指出的是，Hyperliquid 的永久合约交易量在同一时期也下降了一半，从 410 亿美元降至 260 亿美元。简而言之，得出 Lighter 用户已经有效转向 Hyperliquid 的结论还为时尚早。</p>
</div><h2>LIT price post mixed results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>LIT 价格表现混合</h2>
</div><p>Still, the $625 million aidrop exerted significant selling pressure on the token. After its debut, LIT fell 32% from $ 3.30 to $ 2.20. At the time of writing, the altcoin had recovered 18% to $2.6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，6.25 亿美元的空投对该代币施加了显著的卖压。在首次亮相后，LIT 从 3.30 美元跌至 2.20 美元，跌幅达 32%。在撰写本文时，这种山寨币已回升 18%，达到 2.6 美元。</p>
</div><p>In fact, another analyst projected that LIT could rally higher, citing the past performance of rivals such as HYPE and ASTER after their respective launches.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，另一位分析师预测 LIT 可能会进一步上涨，引用了 HYPE 和 ASTER 在各自推出后的历史表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/LITUSDT.P_2026-01-01_14-55-26.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/LITUSDT.P_2026-01-01_14-55-26.png"/></p>
<p>Source: LIT/USDT, TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：LIT/USDT，TradingView</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, there were slightly more people shorting the altcoin than buying it on the derivatives market. According to Coinglass, 54% of Binance top accounts were betting against LIT compared to only 45% eyeing a recovery at press time. This underscored short-term bearish pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，在衍生品市场上，做空该山寨币的人数略多于买入的人。根据 Coinglass 的数据，54% 的 Binance 顶级账户在对 LIT 做空，而只有 45% 在关注其反弹。这突显了短期的看跌压力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-01-154931.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-01-154931.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Lighter recorded significant capital outflows just after its LIT token launch.</em></li>
<li><em>Short-term positioning was slightly tilted towards bears as short bets overwhelmed longs.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Lighter 在其 LIT 代币推出后记录了显著的资本外流。</em></li>
<li><em>短期头寸略微倾向于看跌，因为做空的押注压倒了做多。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

Lighter 在代币首次发行后面临 2.5 亿美元的资金外流——LIT 的未来将如何发展？