<p>随着新年的交易开始，黄金和白银上涨，延续了自 1979 年以来最佳的年度表现。</p>
<p>黄金上涨至每盎司 4375 美元，而白银上涨超过 2%。</p>
<p>尽管交易员指出，随着美国进一步降息和美元走弱，金属在今年可能表现良好，但近期担忧广泛指数的再平衡可能会对价格施加压力。</p>
<p>鉴于金属价格已经上涨，被动跟踪基金可能会出售一些合约以匹配确认的新权重。</p>
<p>“我们预计在接下来的两周内，Comex 白银市场将有多达 13% 的总未平仓合约被出售，导致价格大幅下调，” TD 证券高级商品策略师 Daniel Ghali 在一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>Ghali 表示，假期后的流动性降低可能会放大价格波动。</p>
<p>尽管去年贵金属经历了猛烈的上涨，但上个月底由于一些投资者获利了结，交易指标显示超买状态，市场波动显著。</p>
<p>去年黄金创下了一系列记录，得益于中央银行的购买、美国联邦储备政策的放松以及美元走弱。</p>
<p>由于地缘政治紧张局势和美国主导的贸易摩擦，避险资产的需求也得到了支持。</p>
<p>去年白银的涨幅甚至超过黄金，创下记录并突破了直到最近对大多数市场观察者而言似乎不可思议的水平。</p>
<p>除了推动黄金的因素外，白银还受益于对美国政府最终可能对精炼金属征收进口关税的持续担忧。</p>
<p>在主要银行中，支持今年黄金进一步上涨的声音较强，尤其是在预计美联储将进一步降息以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普重塑中央银行领导层的背景下。</p>
<p>高盛集团上个月表示，其基本预期是黄金将上涨至每盎司 4900 美元，且存在上行风险。</p>
<p>在新加坡，黄金在中午 12:01 上涨 1.3%，至每盎司 4375.15 美元。彭博美元现货指数下跌 0.1%。</p>
<p>白银上涨 2.5%，至每盎司 73.4459 美元。钯金和铂金也大幅上涨。</p>

高盛

<p>黄金和白银价格在新年初上涨，延续了 2022 年的强劲表现。黄金价格达到每盎司 4,375 美元，而白银上涨超过 2%。分析师预测，由于指数再平衡，可能会出现价格压力，预计将有大量白银合约被出售。尽管存在担忧，但由于预期美国利率将下调以及地缘政治紧张局势，市场对进一步价格上涨持乐观态度。高盛预测，今年黄金价格可能上涨至每盎司 4,900 美元</p>

<p>Gold and silver advanced as trading began in the new year, building on their best annual performances since 1979.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着新年的交易开始，黄金和白银上涨，延续了自 1979 年以来最佳的年度表现。</p>
</div><p>Bullion rose to US$4,375 an ounce, while silver gained more than 2 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金上涨至每盎司 4375 美元，而白银上涨超过 2%。</p>
</div><p>While traders have flagged that the metals could do well this year on further US interest rate cuts and US dollar weakness, there is near-term concern that broad index rebalancing could pressure prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管交易员指出，随着美国进一步降息和美元走弱，金属在今年可能表现良好，但近期担忧广泛指数的再平衡可能会对价格施加压力。</p>
</div><p>Given that the metals have rallied, passive tracking funds could sell some contracts to match new weightings as they are confirmed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于金属价格已经上涨，被动跟踪基金可能会出售一些合约以匹配确认的新权重。</p>
</div><p>“We expect a massive 13 percent of aggregate open interest in Comex silver markets will be sold over the coming two weeks, to result in a dramatic repricing lower,” TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali wrote in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们预计在接下来的两周内，Comex 白银市场将有多达 13% 的总未平仓合约被出售，导致价格大幅下调，” TD 证券高级商品策略师 Daniel Ghali 在一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>Lower post-holiday liquidity could amplify price moves, Ghali said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ghali 表示，假期后的流动性降低可能会放大价格波动。</p>
</div><p>Precious metals posted a ferocious run higher last year, although there was significant volatility late last month as some investors booked profits and trading metrics pointed to overbought conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管去年贵金属经历了猛烈的上涨，但上个月底由于一些投资者获利了结，交易指标显示超买状态，市场波动显著。</p>
</div><p>Gold notched a series of records last year, aided by central bank buying, easing US Federal Reserve policy and a weaker US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年黄金创下了一系列记录，得益于中央银行的购买、美国联邦储备政策的放松以及美元走弱。</p>
</div><p>Demand for haven assets driven by geopolitical tensions and US-led trade frictions was also supportive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于地缘政治紧张局势和美国主导的贸易摩擦，避险资产的需求也得到了支持。</p>
</div><p>Silver rallied even harder than gold last year, hitting records and blowing through levels that until recently had seemed unthinkable to all but the most enthusiastic of market watchers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年白银的涨幅甚至超过黄金，创下记录并突破了直到最近对大多数市场观察者而言似乎不可思议的水平。</p>
</div><p>In addition to the factors that aided gold, silver has also been a beneficiary of sustained concerns that the US administration could eventually impose import tariffs on the refined metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了推动黄金的因素外，白银还受益于对美国政府最终可能对精炼金属征收进口关税的持续担忧。</p>
</div><p>Among leading banks, there is support for further rises in gold this year, especially with the Fed expected to deliver additional rate reductions and US President Donald Trump reshaping the central bank’s leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在主要银行中，支持今年黄金进一步上涨的声音较强，尤其是在预计美联储将进一步降息以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普重塑中央银行领导层的背景下。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc last month said that its base case was for a rally to US$4,900 an ounce, with risks to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛集团上个月表示，其基本预期是黄金将上涨至每盎司 4900 美元，且存在上行风险。</p>
</div><p>Gold gained 1.3 percent to US$4,375.15 an ounce at 12:01pm in Singapore. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was 0.1 percent lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新加坡，黄金在中午 12:01 上涨 1.3%，至每盎司 4375.15 美元。彭博美元现货指数下跌 0.1%。</p>
</div><p>Silver advanced 2.5 percent to US$73.4459. Palladium and platinum also surged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银上涨 2.5%，至每盎司 73.4459 美元。钯金和铂金也大幅上涨。</p>
</div>

黄金和白银在新年开局上涨