<p>当彼得·蒂尔采取行动时，往往引人注目。他是 <strong>首次投资 Facebook</strong> 的人，后来 Facebook 变成了 Meta，帮助创建了 PayPal，当时金融科技时代仍处于初期阶段，他还 <strong>创立了 Palantir</strong>。</p>
<p>蒂尔的名字并不与炒作相符，相反，他总是第一个到达并在众人意识到之前就离开。这无疑引发了投资者的疑问，他看到了什么是其他人所没有的。</p>
<h2>为什么蒂尔的投资组合变动如此重要</h2>
<p>由于彼得·蒂尔的对冲基金 Thiel Macro 超过 <strong>1 亿美元</strong>，它必须通过向美国证券交易委员会提交季度 Form 13F 报告来披露其股权持有情况。</p>
<p>这些报告在每个季度结束后公开 45 天，提供了对这位最具影响力的投资者如何定位自己的独特洞察。</p>
<p>最新的信息代表截至 9 月 30 日的股票情况，即使市场变化迅速，蒂尔的决策规模仍然证明了其在几个月后仍值得审视。</p>
<h2>离开特斯拉和英伟达</h2>
<p>在第二季度末，蒂尔持有超过 <strong>272,613 股</strong> 特斯拉和 <strong>537,000 股英伟达</strong>。到第三季度结束时，这一情况发生了根本性的变化。他持有的特斯拉股票数量减少到约 65,000 股，而英伟达的股票则 <strong>完全清空</strong>。</p>
<p>考虑到英伟达在人工智能市场中的关键角色以及其在 AI 投资者中几乎具有魔力的吸引力，英伟达的股票出售尤为戏剧化。</p>
<p>然而，蒂尔并没有完全放弃科技。与其选择医疗或工业等更安全的领域，他将资金投入了两家知名的大型公司，即苹果和微软。这一举动并不意味着他放弃了人工智能，而是更好地从中获利。</p>
<h2>苹果并不是主要赌注</h2>
<p>苹果出现在名单上是意外的，因为到目前为止，它的人工智能计划并未成功吸引投资者的兴趣。尽管该公司表示将更广泛地参与人工智能，但仍落后于那些全力开发基于人工智能的产品和服务的竞争对手。</p>
<p>考虑到苹果目前的情况，蒂尔在购买该股票时很可能并没有直接押注于人工智能，除非他知道其他投资者所不知道的事情。这种不确定性使得苹果成为交易中较不具吸引力的一方。</p>
<h2>微软的复杂历史</h2>
<p>微软已经被纳入蒂尔的投资组合，并且是他投资的一部分。然而，他与该股票的关系并不稳定。在 2024 年第四季度末，他没有持有微软的股票。</p>
<p>在第一季度，他 <strong>收购了约 80,000 股</strong>，在第二季度卖掉了全部头寸，然后在第三季度以近 50,000 股的数量回归。自 9 月 30 日以来，微软的股票下跌了约 6%，仍比 6 月底的价格低约 2%。</p>
<p>这一回调意味着，蒂尔的时机现在看起来确实比交易首次出现在文件中时要好。如果他的信念足够强烈以至于坚持持有，那么可以说当前的价格比他最初选择的价格更具吸引力。</p>
<h2>微软的人工智能战略</h2>
<p>微软决定采取与其他公司不同的战略。微软通过与 OpenAI 的合作 <strong>迈出了巨大的步伐</strong>，获得了 OpenAI Group, PBC 约 27% 的利润份额。</p>
<p>这一合作为微软提供了在其产品中应用最先进的人工智能的机会，而无需经历模型开发的风险。</p>
<p>ChatGPT 已成为覆盖微软 Office 套件、Bing 搜索引擎和 Windows 操作系统的 Copilot 的驱动力。然而，OpenAI 并不是微软唯一的人工智能合作伙伴。</p>
<p>通过其 Azure，微软为用户提供了多个 <strong>人工智能模型</strong> 的访问，包括 Anthropic 的 Claude、xAI 的 Grok、Meta 的 Llama、成本效益高的 <strong>DeepSeek 的 R1 模型</strong> 等。</p>
<p>这一系列模型使微软不仅仅是某一模型的倡导者，而是一个中立的平台，促进整个人工智能生态系统的增长。</p>
<h2>Azure 是明星</h2>
<p>这种中立战略的优势显而易见。Azure 是微软 2026 财年第一季度（截至 9 月 30 日）报告的 40% 增长率的主要贡献者之一。</p>
<p>云计算领域一直是整个微软生态系统的核心，而以人工智能驱动的需求是赋予其更多时间和空间发展的关键因素。</p>
<p>微软的人工智能基础设施层战略，选择不去追求单一赢家，清楚地证明了公司的明智管理。如果 Azure 的增长率在 2026 年前保持如此高的水平，蒂尔的投资可能被视为更具洞察力而非矛盾。</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>蒂尔并不是在追逐最明显的人工智能赢家，相反，他似乎在支持那些从其他成功中获益的公司。微软作为人工智能赋能者而非仅仅参与者的区别，使其在快速饱和的市场中拥有了更多的优势。</p>
<p>尽管强烈建议投资者不要盲目跟随亿万富翁的交易，但蒂尔对微软的信心重燃提醒我们，有时最聪明的人工智能投资并不是最显而易见的。</p>

<p>亿万富翁彼得·蒂尔已经改变了他的投资策略，转向微软和苹果，远离特斯拉和英伟达，原因是人工智能的蓬勃发展。蒂尔的对冲基金 Thiel Macro 披露了其投资组合的重大变化，将特斯拉的股份从超过 272,000 股减少到约 65,000 股，并完全出售了英伟达的股份。尽管苹果目前缺乏强大的人工智能产品，但蒂尔的投资表明他看到了潜力。微软与 OpenAI 的合作以及强大的 Azure 云平台使其具备增长潜力，预计将推动其 2026 财年第一季度收入增长 40%</p>

<p>When Peter Thiel makes a move, it is very noticeable. As he was the person who <strong>first invested in Facebook</strong>, which later on became Meta, assisted in the making of PayPal, the fintech era was still in its infancy, and he <strong>founded Palantir</strong> as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当彼得·蒂尔采取行动时，往往引人注目。他是 <strong>首次投资 Facebook</strong> 的人，后来 Facebook 变成了 Meta，帮助创建了 PayPal，当时金融科技时代仍处于初期阶段，他还 <strong>创立了 Palantir</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Thiel’s name does not align with hype, instead he is the one to arrive first and depart just before the crowd acknowledges it. This definitely raises questions among the investors that what does he see that others do not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蒂尔的名字并不与炒作相符，相反，他总是第一个到达并在众人意识到之前就离开。这无疑引发了投资者的疑问，他看到了什么是其他人所没有的。</p>
</div><h2>What Makes Thiel’s Portfolio Moves So Important</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么蒂尔的投资组合变动如此重要</h2>
</div><p>Due to Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro, being over <strong>$100 million</strong>, it has to make its disclosure of equity holdings via quarterly Form 13F filings with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于彼得·蒂尔的对冲基金 Thiel Macro 超过 <strong>1 亿美元</strong>，它必须通过向美国证券交易委员会提交季度 Form 13F 报告来披露其股权持有情况。</p>
</div><p>These filings, which are open to the public for 45 days after each quarter end, give a unique insight into how one of the most influential investors is positioning himself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些报告在每个季度结束后公开 45 天，提供了对这位最具影响力的投资者如何定位自己的独特洞察。</p>
</div><p>The latest information represents stocks as of 30th September, and even if the markets change quickly, the magnitude of Thiel’s decisions still justifies their examination even after a few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的信息代表截至 9 月 30 日的股票情况，即使市场变化迅速，蒂尔的决策规模仍然证明了其在几个月后仍值得审视。</p>
</div><h2>Leaving Tesla and Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>离开特斯拉和英伟达</h2>
</div><p>Thiel’s holdings at the end of the second quarter included more than <strong>272,613 shares</strong> of Tesla and <strong>537,000 shares of Nvidia</strong>. By the time the third quarter was over, it had undergone a radical transformation. The number of Tesla shares he owned was reduced to about 65,000, while the Nvidia shares were <strong>completely eliminated</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度末，蒂尔持有超过 <strong>272,613 股</strong> 特斯拉和 <strong>537,000 股英伟达</strong>。到第三季度结束时，这一情况发生了根本性的变化。他持有的特斯拉股票数量减少到约 65,000 股，而英伟达的股票则 <strong>完全清空</strong>。</p>
</div><p>The Nvidia share sale was particularly dramatic, considering the company’s crucial part in the artificial intelligence market and its almost magical appeal among AI investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到英伟达在人工智能市场中的关键角色以及其在 AI 投资者中几乎具有魔力的吸引力，英伟达的股票出售尤为戏剧化。</p>
</div><p>However, Thiel did not entirely give up on technology. Instead of going for the safer sectors like healthcare or industrials, he put money into two well-known mega cap companies, which is Apple and Microsoft. This move does not indicate that he has given up on AI, but is a better way of earning from it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，蒂尔并没有完全放弃科技。与其选择医疗或工业等更安全的领域，他将资金投入了两家知名的大型公司，即苹果和微软。这一举动并不意味着他放弃了人工智能，而是更好地从中获利。</p>
</div><h2>Apple is not the Main Bet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果并不是主要赌注</h2>
</div><p>Apple’s arrival in the list was unexpected, as so far its AI plan has not managed to capture the investors’ interest. Even though the company has indicated a more extensive AI involvement, it still lags behind the competition that has gone all out with developing AI-based products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果出现在名单上是意外的，因为到目前为止，它的人工智能计划并未成功吸引投资者的兴趣。尽管该公司表示将更广泛地参与人工智能，但仍落后于那些全力开发基于人工智能的产品和服务的竞争对手。</p>
</div><p>Considering Apple’s current situation, it is very likely that Thiel was not betting directly on AI when buying the stock, unless he is aware of something that the rest of the investors do not know. This uncertainty makes Apple the less attractive side of the deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到苹果目前的情况，蒂尔在购买该股票时很可能并没有直接押注于人工智能，除非他知道其他投资者所不知道的事情。这种不确定性使得苹果成为交易中较不具吸引力的一方。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft’s Complicated History</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软的复杂历史</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft has already been included in Thiel’s portfolio and was a part of his investments. However, he has not had a steady relationship with the stock. At the end of Q4 2024, he had no Microsoft shares in his possession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软已经被纳入蒂尔的投资组合，并且是他投资的一部分。然而，他与该股票的关系并不稳定。在 2024 年第四季度末，他没有持有微软的股票。</p>
</div><p>In Q1, he <strong>acquired around 80,000 shares</strong>, sold the entire position in Q2, and then came back in Q3 with nearly 50,000 shares. Microsoft’s stock has dropped about 6% since 30th September, and is still around 2% lower than its June-end price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，他 <strong>收购了约 80,000 股</strong>，在第二季度卖掉了全部头寸，然后在第三季度以近 50,000 股的数量回归。自 9 月 30 日以来，微软的股票下跌了约 6%，仍比 6 月底的价格低约 2%。</p>
</div><p>This pullback means that Thiel’s timing may indeed look better now than when the trade first showed up in the documents. If his belief is strong enough for him to hold onto it, then arguably the current price is more inviting for him to enter than the one he initially picked.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一回调意味着，蒂尔的时机现在看起来确实比交易首次出现在文件中时要好。如果他的信念足够强烈以至于坚持持有，那么可以说当前的价格比他最初选择的价格更具吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft’s AI Strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软的人工智能战略</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft has decided to go for a different approach in strategy than the others. Instead of building an in-house system, Microsoft took a <strong>giant step forward by partnering</strong> with OpenAI, and gained an approximate 27% stake in the profit-making OpenAI Group, PBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软决定采取与其他公司不同的战略。微软通过与 OpenAI 的合作 <strong>迈出了巨大的步伐</strong>，获得了 OpenAI Group, PBC 约 27% 的利润份额。</p>
</div><p>The partnership provides Microsoft with the opportunity to apply the most advanced AI in its products without having to experience the model development risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一合作为微软提供了在其产品中应用最先进的人工智能的机会，而无需经历模型开发的风险。</p>
</div><p>ChatGPT has become the driving force of Copilot that covers Microsoft’s Office suite, Bing search engine, and the Windows operating system. Still, OpenAI does not represent the only AI friend of Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ChatGPT 已成为覆盖微软 Office 套件、Bing 搜索引擎和 Windows 操作系统的 Copilot 的驱动力。然而，OpenAI 并不是微软唯一的人工智能合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>The company, through its Azure, provides users access to several <strong>AI models</strong>, including Claude by Anthropic, Grok by xAI, Llama from Meta, the cost-efficient <strong>R1 model from DeepSeek</strong>, and others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过其 Azure，微软为用户提供了多个 <strong>人工智能模型</strong> 的访问，包括 Anthropic 的 Claude、xAI 的 Grok、Meta 的 Llama、成本效益高的 <strong>DeepSeek 的 R1 模型</strong> 等。</p>
</div><p>This wide range of models give power not to Microsoft as an advocate for one model, but as a neutral platform that encourages the growth of the entire AI ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一系列模型使微软不仅仅是某一模型的倡导者，而是一个中立的平台，促进整个人工智能生态系统的增长。</p>
</div><h2>Azure is the Star</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Azure 是明星</h2>
</div><p>The advantage of this neutral strategy can be observed. Azure was one of the main contributors to the 40% growth rate, which was reported for the first quarter of Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 period that was concluded on 30th September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种中立战略的优势显而易见。Azure 是微软 2026 财年第一季度（截至 9 月 30 日）报告的 40% 增长率的主要贡献者之一。</p>
</div><p>The cloud sector has been the chief of the entire Microsoft ecosystem, and demand being AI-driven is the pivotal factor that is granting it more time and space to grow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>云计算领域一直是整个微软生态系统的核心，而以人工智能驱动的需求是赋予其更多时间和空间发展的关键因素。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft’s infrastructure layer strategy for AI, instead of choosing a sole winner, is clear evidence of the company’s wise management. If Azure’s growth rate remains this high until 2026, Thiel’s bet could be considered more insightful than being conflicting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的人工智能基础设施层战略，选择不去追求单一赢家，清楚地证明了公司的明智管理。如果 Azure 的增长率在 2026 年前保持如此高的水平，蒂尔的投资可能被视为更具洞察力而非矛盾。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom Line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>Thiel is not after the most apparent AI winners, instead he seems to be giving his support to the firm that gains from the success of others. The distinction of Microsoft being an AI enabler rather than just a participant gives it a lot more than just a commanding advantage in a rapidly saturating market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蒂尔并不是在追逐最明显的人工智能赢家，相反，他似乎在支持那些从其他成功中获益的公司。微软作为人工智能赋能者而非仅仅参与者的区别，使其在快速饱和的市场中拥有了更多的优势。</p>
</div><p>Although investors are strongly advised to not follow the trades of billionaires’ blindly, Thiel’s renewal of faith in Microsoft provides an attractive reminder that sometimes the smartest AI investment is not the most visible one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管强烈建议投资者不要盲目跟随亿万富翁的交易，但蒂尔对微软的信心重燃提醒我们，有时最聪明的人工智能投资并不是最显而易见的。</p>
</div>

在人工智能热潮中，亿万富翁彼得·蒂尔选择了微软，而非英伟达和特斯拉