<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>来源</em></p>
<p>以下是我本周遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
<p>本周，Michael Santoli 向金融界介绍了 David Snyder，他是真正的 “神秘经纪人”，也是他的一位消息来源，过去二十年里定期且准确地预测了重要的市场转折点。在他网站上的一份详细报告中，Snyder 认为：“几乎所有投资者用来判断一个长期牛市即将结束的标准都已满足。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="719" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>图表</strong></p>
<p>与 Snyder 一样，Jurrien Timmer 也指出：“回顾 1949-1968 年和 1982-2000 年的长期牛市，这一次似乎也进入了最后阶段。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="353" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>图表</strong></p>
<p>目前股市中最重要的晚期动态可能是科技投资周期。Callum Thomas 写道：“随着美国及全球对人工智能霸权的竞争加剧，科技行业的固定资产投资激增——挤压了市场其他部分的资本支出。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="421" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>统计</strong></p>
<p>然而，这种支出对未来回报并不是一个好兆头。《环球邮报》报道：“在 1968 年至 2007 年间，低资产增长公司的年均回报率为 26%，而高资产增长公司的回报率仅为微薄的 4%。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="430" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>链接</strong></p>
<p>最后，随着当前股市周期的老化，华尔街向一位在其辉煌职业生涯中成功驾驭多个周期的人告别。Roger Lowenstein 写道：“巴菲特惊人成功的秘密是什么？我认为是他的品格。华尔街充满了聪明且雄心勃勃的男女，但很少有人展现出巴菲特那种坚定的诚信和对原则的奉献。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="410" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>泡沫无处不在</p>
<p>疲弱的盈利基础使市场愈发脆弱</p>
<p>搜索活动是否预示着 ‘人工智能股票’ 即将下跌？</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>本周，金融专家的见解表明，当前的长期牛市可能接近尾声，David Snyder 和 Jurrien Timmer 提出了这一观点。科技投资周期，特别是在人工智能领域，正在主导资本支出，这可能对未来的回报不利。历史数据显示，低资产增长的公司显著优于高资产增长的公司。此外，对沃伦·巴菲特成功的反思强调了他的诚信和原则是他辉煌职业生涯的关键因素</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源</em></p>
</div><p>Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我本周遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
</div><p>This week, Michael Santoli introduced the world of finance to David Snyder, the true identity of the “mystery broker” and a source of his who has regularly and accurately called important market turning points over the past two decades. In an extensive report on his website, Snyder argues, “Just about all of the boxes have been checked that an investor would look for to determine that the end of a secular bull market is near.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，Michael Santoli 向金融界介绍了 David Snyder，他是真正的 “神秘经纪人”，也是他的一位消息来源，过去二十年里定期且准确地预测了重要的市场转折点。在他网站上的一份详细报告中，Snyder 认为：“几乎所有投资者用来判断一个长期牛市即将结束的标准都已满足。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>图表</strong></p>
</div><p>Like Snyder, Jurrien Timmer, too, points out that, “Looking at the 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 secular bull markets, this one appears to be in its final innings.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 Snyder 一样，Jurrien Timmer 也指出：“回顾 1949-1968 年和 1982-2000 年的长期牛市，这一次似乎也进入了最后阶段。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>图表</strong></p>
</div><p>Perhaps the most important late-cycle dynamic in the stock market at present is the tech investment cycle. “As the race for AI supremacy both within the USA and globally rages on, tech sector fixed asset investment has surged — crowding out capex by the rest of the market,” writes Callum Thomas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前股市中最重要的晚期动态可能是科技投资周期。Callum Thomas 写道：“随着美国及全球对人工智能霸权的竞争加剧，科技行业的固定资产投资激增——挤压了市场其他部分的资本支出。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>STAT</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>统计</strong></p>
</div><p>However, this sort of spending is not a great sign for forward returns. “Between 1968 and 2007, low-asset-growth firms had an average return of 26% annually, while high-asset-growth firms returned a meagre 4%,” reports The Globe And Mail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种支出对未来回报并不是一个好兆头。《环球邮报》报道：“在 1968 年至 2007 年间，低资产增长公司的年均回报率为 26%，而高资产增长公司的回报率仅为微薄的 4%。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>链接</strong></p>
</div><p>Finally, as the current stock market cycle ages, Wall Street says goodbye to one who has successfully navigated several in his storied career. “What is the secret of Buffett’s astounding success? I believe it is his character. Wall Street is full of intelligent — and ambitious — men and women, but few have displayed Buffett’s unswerving integrity and dedication to principle,” writes Buffett biographer, Roger Lowenstein.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，随着当前股市周期的老化，华尔街向一位在其辉煌职业生涯中成功驾驭多个周期的人告别。Roger Lowenstein 写道：“巴菲特惊人成功的秘密是什么？我认为是他的品格。华尔街充满了聪明且雄心勃勃的男女，但很少有人展现出巴菲特那种坚定的诚信和对原则的奉献。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Bubbles Are Everywhere You Look</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泡沫无处不在</p>
</div><p>A Weakening Earnings Foundation Leaves The Market Increasingly Fragile</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的盈利基础使市场愈发脆弱</p>
</div><p>Is Search Activity Forecasting An Imminent Fall For ‘AI Stocks’?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>搜索活动是否预示着 ‘人工智能股票’ 即将下跌？</p>
</div>

The Secret Of Warren Buffett’s Storied Success

- 本周，迈克尔·圣托利介绍了市场中的 “神秘经纪人” 大卫·斯奈德。  
- 斯奈德表示，所有迹象表明长期牛市即将结束。  
- 当前股市循环加剧了技术投资周期，可能影响未来回报。

沃伦·巴菲特传奇成功的秘诀