<p>中国汽车产业预计在经历多年增长后，今年将面临停滞。新能源车（NEV）可能会继续增加市场份额，但增长幅度将远低于近年来，渗透率预计将达到约 60%。\n“内卷” 是去年的主要主题，尽管政府和制造商进行了努力，但由于经济疲软和消费者观望态度，情况在下半年之前不太可能改善。这对制造商的盈利能力产生了显著影响，1 月至 11 月的平均利润率为 4.4%，仅比 2024 年的历史低点高出 0.1 个百分点。2026 年国内汽车销量可能保持平稳，最多增长 3%，上半年销量同比下降。\n 在这样的市场中，成功将取决于出口和技术创新。自 2021 年以来，中国汽车出口迅速增长，预计去年总量超过 700 万辆，其中比亚迪（BYD）单独超过 100 万辆。\n 国内竞争激烈，财务成功往往与海外竞争能力相关。预计汽车出口将继续上升，但由于保护主义加剧，增速将放缓，预计今年将达到约 850 万辆。\n 不过，有一个趋势是中国汽车在海外生产的数量上升。长安汽车最近成为继比亚迪之后第二家在泰国出口汽车到欧洲的中国汽车制造商。比亚迪一直忙于在全球开设工厂，预计今年将在匈牙利开设工厂，这是迄今为止中国制造商在欧洲最大的组装厂。\n\n\n 比亚迪和吉利将成为出口驱动的最大受益者，国有企业（SOEs）如奇瑞汽车和上汽集团也将受益。\n 在三家美国上市的新能源车初创公司中，小鹏汽车在出口方面最为成功，蔚来（Nio）和理想汽车（Li Auto）也将寻求复制这一成功。尽管蔚来自 2021 年以来一直在进行出口，但该品牌在欧洲的销量一直不理想。它的新希望是 Firefly 品牌。另一方面，理想汽车一直依赖于国内市场，但其增程电动车（EREVs）的需求波动，且在全电动车型上未能取得成功，促使公司扩展到出口市场。\n 在价格处于低谷的情况下，预计制造商必须主要依靠技术竞争。比亚迪在 2025 年售出了 455 万辆汽车，比 2024 年略有增加，如果不是因为出口，销量可能会更差。它声称将通过技术创新来应对销售放缓。其中之一预计将是期待已久的 Blade 2.0 电池，以及更多配备超快充电的车型。\n 比亚迪的领导地位正面临多方面的挑战。值得注意的是，吉利的新能源车销量现在占其总销量的一半以上。随着吉利和奇瑞的持续崛起，它们将挑战比亚迪在最有效的插电式混合动力电动车（PHEV）系统方面的地位。小米自 2024 年推出首款汽车以来，已成为一个现象，预计今年将推出两款 EREV 车型，届时其销量可能超过 60 万辆。\n 初创公司的市场环境今年将非常具有挑战性，但也会有一些赢家。我预计小鹏和蔚来各自的销量将达到约 50 万辆，而零跑汽车（Leapmotor）可能会更好，达到 70 万辆。其他公司可能会停滞不前或经历销量下降。\n\n\n 芯片将成为新的战场。中国汽车主要依赖于 Nvidia Orin X 和 Thor 芯片用于驾驶辅助系统，以及高通 Snapdragon 系列用于信息娱乐系统。小鹏和蔚来已开始用自研硅芯片替代 Nvidia 芯片。吉利子公司 SiEngine 正在生产用于自动驾驶的 7 纳米芯片。预计中国汽车将迅速减少对 Nvidia 和高通芯片的依赖。\n 中国汽车市场大约有 30 家中国制造商和 10 家国际厂商，共同提供超过 100 个品牌。自 2007 年我开始撰写中国汽车产业以来，一直在谈论整合。整合比以往任何时候都更为必要，但在今年发生的可能性极小。\n 整合在电池行业的可能性要大得多。该行业由宁德时代（CATL）和比亚迪主导，两者共同控制了中国电动车总装机量的近三分之二。\n\n\n 作为一个新兴行业，电池市场没有根深蒂固的国有企业，主要是私营公司。技术和监管的逆风正在创造条件，使较弱的参与者消失。固态电池和钠电池的推进需要大量投资。此外，新的国家电池标准将于 7 月 1 日生效，规定电动车电池不得着火或爆炸。\n 例如，电池制造商顺络电子（Sunwoda）最近因质量问题被吉利起诉，索赔金额为 23.1 亿元人民币（约合 3.3026 亿美元）。索赔金额几乎等于顺络 2023 年和 2024 年合并净利润的总和。理想汽车也 reportedly 在说服预订其 i6 汽车的客户接受顺络电池而非宁德时代电池方面遇到困难。顺络电池被认为便宜 15-20%，但消费者认为其质量较低。\n 鉴于这些问题，顺络在行业整合的一年中是较小参与者中最有可能消失的候选者。最强者将以其他参与者的代价获得市场份额，汽车出口和技术是盈利的关键。</p>

吉利汽车(ADR)

吉利汽车

<p>中国的汽车产业预计将在 2026 年停滞，尽管新能源汽车（NEVs）的市场份额有所增加，但增速放缓。盈利能力受到疲软经济的影响，国内销售预计仅增长 3%。出口对成功至关重要，比亚迪和吉利在这方面处于领先地位。随着公司在技术上进行创新，尤其是在电池开发方面，竞争将加剧。市场面临挑战，但一些初创企业如小鹏汽车和零跑汽车可能会蓬勃发展。电池行业可能会出现整合，受技术进步和监管变化的推动</p>

<p>China’s car industry is expected to stagnate this year as it tries to catch its breath after years of growth. New energy vehicles (NEVs) are likely to continue increasing their market share but growth will be much lower than in recent years, with the penetration rate reaching around 60 per cent.\n“Involution” was the major theme last year, and despite efforts by the government and manufacturers, the situation is unlikely to improve until the second half of the year, due to a tepid economy and a wait-and-see consumer attitude. This has had a significant impact on manufacturers’ profitability, with the January-November average profit rate at 4.4 per cent, just 0.1 percentage point above 2024’s record low. Domestic car sales for 2026 are likely to remain flat, with at best an increase of 3 per cent and first-half sales lower year over year.\nSuccess in such a marketplace will be determined by both exports and technological innovation. Since 2021, Chinese car exports have grown rapidly and last year’s total is expected to have exceeded 7 million units, with BYD alone surpassing 1 million.\nCutthroat domestic competition means financial success is often tied to the ability to compete overseas. Car exports are expected to keep rising, but more slowly due to increasing protectionism, to around 8.5 million this year.\nOne trend, though, will be the rise in Chinese cars produced outside China. Changan Automobile recently became the second Chinese carmaker in Thailand after BYD to export cars to Europe. BYD, which has been busy opening factories around the world, is due to open its factory in Hungary this year, the largest assembly plant to date from a Chinese producer in Europe.\n\n\nBYD and Geely are set to be the largest beneficiaries of the export drive, as are state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with more competitive brands such as Chery Automobile and SAIC Motor.\nAmong the three US-listed NEV start-ups, Xpeng has the most success in exports, and both Nio and Li Auto will seek to replicate this. Although Nio has been exporting since 2021, the brand has struggled to gain sales in Europe. Its new hope is the Firefly brand. Li Auto, on the other hand, has always relied on the domestic market. But it has found demand for its extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) wavering, and has not achieved success with its all-electric offerings, prompting the company to expand into export markets.\nWith prices at rock bottom, expect producers must compete largely on technology. BYD sold 4.55 million cars in 2025, a small increase over 2024, and would have done worse if not for its exports. It claims it will counter slowing sales with technological innovations. One of these is expected to be the long-awaited Blade 2.0 battery – and more models featuring ultra-fast charging.\nBYD’s leadership is being challenged on multiple fronts. Notably, Geely’s NEV sales now account for more than half its total sales. As Geely and Chery continue to rise, they will be challenging BYD for the most efficient plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) system. Xiaomi, meanwhile, has been a phenomenon since it launched its first car in 2024 and will reportedly introduce two EREV models this year, when its sales are likely to exceed 600,000.\nMarket conditions for start-ups will be very challenging this year but there will be some winners. I expect Xpeng and Nio to achieve sales of around 500,000 each, while Leapmotor will do even better, hitting possibly 700,000. Others are likely to stagnate or experience sales decreases.\n\n\nChips will be a new battleground. Chinese cars have relied mainly on Nvidia Orin X and Thor chips for driver-assistance systems and the Qualcomm Snapdragon series for infotainment. Xpeng and Nio have begun replacing Nvidia chips with self-developed silicon. Geely subsidiary SiEngine is producing a 7-nanometre chip for autonomous driving. Expect Chinese cars to rapidly lose their reliance on Nvidia and Qualcomm chips.\nThere are around 30 Chinese producers and 10 international players in the Chinese car market, together offering over 100 brands. Since I began writing about China’s car industry in 2007, there has been talk of consolidation. Consolidation is more necessary than ever – but highly unlikely to happen this year.\nConsolidation is far more likely in the battery sector. This is dominated by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL) and BYD, who together control nearly two-thirds of total installations in Chinese electric vehicles.\n\n\nAs a new industry, the battery market has no entrenched SOEs, with companies largely private. Technological and regulatory headwinds are creating conditions for weaker players to disappear. There is the push into solid-state and sodium batteries, which requires considerable investment. Then there is the new national standard for batteries coming into force on July 1, which specifies that electric vehicle batteries must not catch fire or explode.\nBattery maker Sunwoda Electronic Co, for instance, was recently hit with a 2.31 billion yuan (US$330.26 million) lawsuit by Geely over quality issues. The damages claimed are nearly equal to Sunwoda’s combined net profit for 2023 and 2024. Li Auto has also reportedly struggled to persuade customers who pre-ordered its i6 car to accept Sunwoda batteries over CATL ones. Sunwoda batteries are thought to be 15-20 per cent cheaper but consumers perceive them to be of lower quality.\nGiven these problems, Sunwoda is a prime candidate among the smaller players to disappear in a year of industry consolidation. The strongest will gain market share at the expense of the rest, with car exports and technology the keys to profitability.\n</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国汽车产业预计在经历多年增长后，今年将面临停滞。新能源车（NEV）可能会继续增加市场份额，但增长幅度将远低于近年来，渗透率预计将达到约 60%。\n“内卷” 是去年的主要主题，尽管政府和制造商进行了努力，但由于经济疲软和消费者观望态度，情况在下半年之前不太可能改善。这对制造商的盈利能力产生了显著影响，1 月至 11 月的平均利润率为 4.4%，仅比 2024 年的历史低点高出 0.1 个百分点。2026 年国内汽车销量可能保持平稳，最多增长 3%，上半年销量同比下降。\n 在这样的市场中，成功将取决于出口和技术创新。自 2021 年以来，中国汽车出口迅速增长，预计去年总量超过 700 万辆，其中比亚迪（BYD）单独超过 100 万辆。\n 国内竞争激烈，财务成功往往与海外竞争能力相关。预计汽车出口将继续上升，但由于保护主义加剧，增速将放缓，预计今年将达到约 850 万辆。\n 不过，有一个趋势是中国汽车在海外生产的数量上升。长安汽车最近成为继比亚迪之后第二家在泰国出口汽车到欧洲的中国汽车制造商。比亚迪一直忙于在全球开设工厂，预计今年将在匈牙利开设工厂，这是迄今为止中国制造商在欧洲最大的组装厂。\n\n\n 比亚迪和吉利将成为出口驱动的最大受益者，国有企业（SOEs）如奇瑞汽车和上汽集团也将受益。\n 在三家美国上市的新能源车初创公司中，小鹏汽车在出口方面最为成功，蔚来（Nio）和理想汽车（Li Auto）也将寻求复制这一成功。尽管蔚来自 2021 年以来一直在进行出口，但该品牌在欧洲的销量一直不理想。它的新希望是 Firefly 品牌。另一方面，理想汽车一直依赖于国内市场，但其增程电动车（EREVs）的需求波动，且在全电动车型上未能取得成功，促使公司扩展到出口市场。\n 在价格处于低谷的情况下，预计制造商必须主要依靠技术竞争。比亚迪在 2025 年售出了 455 万辆汽车，比 2024 年略有增加，如果不是因为出口，销量可能会更差。它声称将通过技术创新来应对销售放缓。其中之一预计将是期待已久的 Blade 2.0 电池，以及更多配备超快充电的车型。\n 比亚迪的领导地位正面临多方面的挑战。值得注意的是，吉利的新能源车销量现在占其总销量的一半以上。随着吉利和奇瑞的持续崛起，它们将挑战比亚迪在最有效的插电式混合动力电动车（PHEV）系统方面的地位。小米自 2024 年推出首款汽车以来，已成为一个现象，预计今年将推出两款 EREV 车型，届时其销量可能超过 60 万辆。\n 初创公司的市场环境今年将非常具有挑战性，但也会有一些赢家。我预计小鹏和蔚来各自的销量将达到约 50 万辆，而零跑汽车（Leapmotor）可能会更好，达到 70 万辆。其他公司可能会停滞不前或经历销量下降。\n\n\n 芯片将成为新的战场。中国汽车主要依赖于 Nvidia Orin X 和 Thor 芯片用于驾驶辅助系统，以及高通 Snapdragon 系列用于信息娱乐系统。小鹏和蔚来已开始用自研硅芯片替代 Nvidia 芯片。吉利子公司 SiEngine 正在生产用于自动驾驶的 7 纳米芯片。预计中国汽车将迅速减少对 Nvidia 和高通芯片的依赖。\n 中国汽车市场大约有 30 家中国制造商和 10 家国际厂商，共同提供超过 100 个品牌。自 2007 年我开始撰写中国汽车产业以来，一直在谈论整合。整合比以往任何时候都更为必要，但在今年发生的可能性极小。\n 整合在电池行业的可能性要大得多。该行业由宁德时代（CATL）和比亚迪主导，两者共同控制了中国电动车总装机量的近三分之二。\n\n\n 作为一个新兴行业，电池市场没有根深蒂固的国有企业，主要是私营公司。技术和监管的逆风正在创造条件，使较弱的参与者消失。固态电池和钠电池的推进需要大量投资。此外，新的国家电池标准将于 7 月 1 日生效，规定电动车电池不得着火或爆炸。\n 例如，电池制造商顺络电子（Sunwoda）最近因质量问题被吉利起诉，索赔金额为 23.1 亿元人民币（约合 3.3026 亿美元）。索赔金额几乎等于顺络 2023 年和 2024 年合并净利润的总和。理想汽车也 reportedly 在说服预订其 i6 汽车的客户接受顺络电池而非宁德时代电池方面遇到困难。顺络电池被认为便宜 15-20%，但消费者认为其质量较低。\n 鉴于这些问题，顺络在行业整合的一年中是较小参与者中最有可能消失的候选者。最强者将以其他参与者的代价获得市场份额，汽车出口和技术是盈利的关键。</p>
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Innovation and exports will winnow China’s car industry in 2026

- 中国汽车行业预计将在今年 stagnate，面临经济放缓和消费者观望态度。  
- 新能源汽车市场份额将继续上升，预计渗透率约为 60% 。  
- 出口和技术创新将决定成功，外资品牌如比亚迪和吉利将受益。

创新和出口将在 2026 年对中国汽车行业进行筛选