<p>根据 2025 年第四季度的 Aquila 资产管理者指数（AVI），瑞士资产管理者在 SIP 中看到了最大的机会，该指数于 1 月初发布。</p>
<p>当被问及哪个市场在 2026 年将提供最具吸引力的风险回报特征时，42% 的受访者提到了瑞士股票指数，其次是新兴市场（MSCI EM ex China，18%）和美国蓝筹股指数 S&amp;P 500（14%）。欧洲股票（MSCI EMU，7%）、纳斯达克 100 指数和 MSCI 中国的科技股（各 9%）排名明显较低。英国 FTSE 100 和日本日经 225 指数则完全没有被提及。</p>
<p>资产管理者对由人工智能驱动的股票市场泡沫的担忧显然并不普遍。只有 13% 的受访者预计估值会出现 “破裂”。相比之下，61% 的人自称为 “半乐观者”，认为存在一定程度的高估，并预计会有轻微降温——但不会崩盘。同时，26% 的人继续将人工智能视为增长驱动力，并认为市场高点尚未到达。</p>
<p>当被问及将使用哪些资产来分散与人工智能相关的风险时，约 66% 的人提到了黄金。瑞士房地产（36%）、现金（32%）、基础设施/能源（29%）和商品（26%）也被广泛视为对冲工具。</p>
<p>展望未来，受访者对 SMI 在 12 个月内的预期比上次调查更为乐观。现在有 64% 的人预计会出现上涨，而上次为 55%。28% 的人预计将保持稳定，只有 8% 的人预计价格会下降。对于 10 年期瑞士政府债券，大多数（64%）受访者预计利率将保持不变。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg"/></p>
<p>«在 11 月近期疲软之后，我们略微增加了股票敞口，并选择性地利用了有吸引力的投资机会，»<strong>Manuela Rupf</strong>，Alpique Swiss Partners 的创始人和合伙人评论道。«我们保持乐观，主要关注高质量公司。牛市在降息阶段很少结束。»她补充道，广泛的多元化和严谨的投资方法仍然至关重要。«在客户方面，我们看到对商品敞口的需求增加——尤其是尽管价格大幅波动，白银仍然显得有吸引力。»</p>
<p><strong>黄金作为核心构建块</strong></p>
<p><strong>Sam Harsch</strong>，Gotthard Partners 的董事会主席和合伙人，也专注于贵金属。«黄金多年来一直是我们战略资产配置的核心构建块。故意在债券上超配并不是基于短期市场预期，而是基于这样的评估：在政府债务上升、地缘政治分裂和货币政策不确定性增加的环境中，贵金属继续履行其作为价值储存和稳定资产的角色。»</p>
<p>此外，针对欧元和美元计价资产的敞口在一些委托中已经减少了一段时间。Harsch 指出，债务水平持续高企、财政权衡和美国及欧元区日益增加的 “货币政策灵活性”。«我们假设，除了美元，欧元也将逐渐发展为软货币。»</p>
<p>根据调查，股票、流动性和黄金的资产配置权重明显高于传统平衡投资组合，而债券配置则低于。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg"/></p>

<p>一项针对瑞士资产管理公司的调查显示，受访者对 2026 年持乐观态度，42% 的人认为瑞士股票具有吸引人的风险回报特征。黄金和国内房地产也因其多样化的优势而受到欢迎。对于人工智能驱动的市场泡沫的担忧很小，61% 的人认为市场轻微高估。对瑞士市场指数（SMI）的预期更加积极，64% 的人预计会出现上涨。资产管理者强调黄金在债务上升和地缘政治不确定性中作为稳定资产的重要性，同时减少对欧元和美元资产的敞口。总体而言，股票和黄金的配置超过了传统投资组合的标准，而债券则不太受欢迎</p>

<p>Swiss asset managers see the greatest opportunities in the SIP, according to the Aquila Asset Manager Index (AVI) for the fourth quarter of 2025, published in early January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 2025 年第四季度的 Aquila 资产管理者指数（AVI），瑞士资产管理者在 SIP 中看到了最大的机会，该指数于 1 月初发布。</p>
</div><p>Asked which market would offer the most attractive risk-return profile in 2026, 42 percent cited the Swiss equity index, followed by emerging markets (MSCI EM ex China, 18 percent) and the US blue-chip index S&amp;P 500 (14 percent). European equities (MSCI EMU, 7 percent), technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI China (9 percent each) ranked significantly lower. The UK FTSE 100 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 were not mentioned at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当被问及哪个市场在 2026 年将提供最具吸引力的风险回报特征时，42% 的受访者提到了瑞士股票指数，其次是新兴市场（MSCI EM ex China，18%）和美国蓝筹股指数 S&amp;P 500（14%）。欧洲股票（MSCI EMU，7%）、纳斯达克 100 指数和 MSCI 中国的科技股（各 9%）排名明显较低。英国 FTSE 100 和日本日经 225 指数则完全没有被提及。</p>
</div><p>Concerns about an AI-driven equity market bubble are clearly not widespread among asset managers. Only 13 percent of respondents expect a «burst» in valuations. By contrast, 61 percent describe themselves as «semi-optimists», identifying some degree of overvaluation and expecting a mild cooling—but no crash. Meanwhile, 26 percent continue to see AI as a growth driver and believe market highs have not yet been reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资产管理者对由人工智能驱动的股票市场泡沫的担忧显然并不普遍。只有 13% 的受访者预计估值会出现 “破裂”。相比之下，61% 的人自称为 “半乐观者”，认为存在一定程度的高估，并预计会有轻微降温——但不会崩盘。同时，26% 的人继续将人工智能视为增长驱动力，并认为市场高点尚未到达。</p>
</div><p>When asked which assets they would use to diversify away AI-related risk, around 66% cited gold. Swiss real estate (36 percent), cash (32 percent), infrastructure/energy (29 percent) and commodities (26 percent) were also widely viewed as hedging instruments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当被问及将使用哪些资产来分散与人工智能相关的风险时，约 66% 的人提到了黄金。瑞士房地产（36%）、现金（32%）、基础设施/能源（29%）和商品（26%）也被广泛视为对冲工具。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, expectations for the SMI over a 12-month horizon are more optimistic than in the previous survey. A rise is now expected by 64 percent, compared with 55 percent. Stable levels are anticipated by 28 percent, while only 8 percent expect declining prices. For 10-year Swiss government bonds, the majority (64 percent) expects interest rates to remain unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，受访者对 SMI 在 12 个月内的预期比上次调查更为乐观。现在有 64% 的人预计会出现上涨，而上次为 55%。28% 的人预计将保持稳定，只有 8% 的人预计价格会下降。对于 10 年期瑞士政府债券，大多数（64%）受访者预计利率将保持不变。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg"/></p>
<p>«Following the recent weakness in November, we slightly increased our equity exposure and selectively took advantage of attractive investment opportunities,» comments <strong>Manuela Rupf,</strong> founder and partner at Alpique Swiss Partners. «We remain optimistic and are focusing primarily on high-quality companies. Bull markets rarely end during phases of interest rate cuts.» Broad diversification and a disciplined investment approach remain essential, she adds. «On the client side, we are seeing increased demand for commodity exposure—silver in particular still appears attractive despite the strong price move.»</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>«在 11 月近期疲软之后，我们略微增加了股票敞口，并选择性地利用了有吸引力的投资机会，»<strong>Manuela Rupf</strong>，Alpique Swiss Partners 的创始人和合伙人评论道。«我们保持乐观，主要关注高质量公司。牛市在降息阶段很少结束。»她补充道，广泛的多元化和严谨的投资方法仍然至关重要。«在客户方面，我们看到对商品敞口的需求增加——尤其是尽管价格大幅波动，白银仍然显得有吸引力。»</p>
</div><p><strong>Gold as a core building block</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>黄金作为核心构建块</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Sam Harsch</strong>, chairman of the board and partner at Gotthard Partners, is also focused on precious metals. «Gold has been a central building block of our strategic asset allocation for many years. The deliberate overweighting at the expense of bonds is not based on short-term market expectations, but on the assessment that, in an environment of rising government debt, geopolitical fragmentation and increasing monetary policy uncertainty, the precious metal continues to fulfill its role as a store of value and a stabilizing asset.»</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Sam Harsch</strong>，Gotthard Partners 的董事会主席和合伙人，也专注于贵金属。«黄金多年来一直是我们战略资产配置的核心构建块。故意在债券上超配并不是基于短期市场预期，而是基于这样的评估：在政府债务上升、地缘政治分裂和货币政策不确定性增加的环境中，贵金属继续履行其作为价值储存和稳定资产的角色。»</p>
</div><p>In addition, exposure to euro- and dollar-denominated assets has been reduced across mandates for some time. Harsch points to persistently high debt levels, fiscal trade-offs and increasing «monetary policy flexibilisation» in the U.S. and the euro area. «We assume that, alongside the US dollar, the euro will also gradually develop into a soft currency.»</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，针对欧元和美元计价资产的敞口在一些委托中已经减少了一段时间。Harsch 指出，债务水平持续高企、财政权衡和美国及欧元区日益增加的 “货币政策灵活性”。«我们假设，除了美元，欧元也将逐渐发展为软货币。»</p>
</div><p>According to the survey, asset allocation weightings in equities, liquidity and gold are clearly above those of a traditional balanced portfolio, while bond allocations are below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据调查，股票、流动性和黄金的资产配置权重明显高于传统平衡投资组合，而债券配置则低于。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg"/></p>

瑞士资产管理公司在 2026 年看到的进一步潜力