<p>英伟达从一家专业的图形芯片制造商转变为全球最有价值公司的过程，成为了本十年最伟大的股市故事之一。该公司的价值在短时间内 <strong>增加到数万亿美元</strong>，这是现代金融历史上罕见的现象。然而，进入 2026 年，股价的动能已不再受到质疑。</p>
<p>但在经历了几乎直线增长的多年后，英伟达的市值现在面临更严峻的条件。英伟达的估值正面临现实检验，包括竞争、利润压力以及投资者对人工智能支出周期可行性的质疑。</p>
<p>自去年十月底达到峰值以来，英伟达的股价 <strong>下跌了 8%</strong>，与更广泛的标准普尔 500 指数相比，这一跌幅相当显著。这个跌幅看似微小，但考虑到英伟达之前的上涨，实际上是相当沉重的。</p>
<p>从 2022 年底到最近的峰值，股价上涨超过 <strong>1300%</strong>，使公司的市值突破了 <strong>5 万亿美元</strong> 大关。此外，公司市值在短短几个月内减少了 4600 亿美元，这表明投资者已将关注点从公司的乐观前景转向当前的状况。</p>
<h2>英伟达股票对整个市场的意义</h2>
<p>英伟达不仅荣幸地成为一家大型科技公司，而且也是推动股市整体看涨趋势的原因。自 2022 年 10 月上升趋势开始以来，英伟达对标准普尔 500 指数总收益的贡献约为 <strong>16%</strong>，是苹果公司 7% 影响的两倍多。</p>
<p>这种影响力意味着英伟达股票的任何微小缺陷都会通过全球投资组合、ETF 和退休基金在市场上产生广泛的影响。</p>
<p>这种系统性的重要性是投资者现在比以往任何时候都更加关注可能出现的风险的原因。英伟达的主导地位是建立在对人工智能加速器需求增加的基础上，但市场对当前的支出水平提出了质疑。当一只股票具有如此大的影响力时，即使是小幅下跌也可能导致巨大的后果。</p>
<h2>竞争不再是遥远的威胁</h2>
<p>英伟达巧妙地控制着 <strong>超过 90%</strong> 的人工智能加速器市场，但它也逐渐面临挑战。AMD 取得了显著进展，甚至成功吸引了 OpenAI 和 Oracle 等顶级数据中心用户。</p>
<p>预计到 2026 年，AMD 来自数据中心的收入将接近 260 亿美元，这一 <strong>60% 的巨大增长</strong> 表明人们对 GPU 替代品的信心正在增强。</p>
<p>此外，英伟达最大的客户正成为其最严峻的竞争对手。Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和 Meta 占据了英伟达 <strong>超过 40% 的收入</strong>，但每家公司都在大力投资芯片设计，以摆脱对英伟达昂贵硬件的依赖。</p>
<p>单个 GPU 的价格通常超过 3 万美元，因此在超大规模水平上开发内部解决方案的逻辑尤其强烈。</p>
<p>在十多年的持续改进中，谷歌的张量处理单元现在已成为谷歌 Gemini AI 模型的驱动力。传言称 Meta 正在考虑未来使用谷歌云芯片，而博通则在向应用特定集成电路的转变中成为主要赢家。</p>
<p>ASIC 的成功反映了行业中的一种主要趋势，即性能是一个重要因素，但可负担性也越来越重要。</p>
<h2>英伟达对变化市场的战略响应</h2>
<p>英伟达持续前进。决定授权技术并从初创公司 Groq 招聘人才表明，该公司意识到人工智能计算的未来可能不是标准解决方案。</p>
<p>英伟达通过在下一代产品中实施低延迟和更具针对性的芯片设计来捍卫其生态系统，同时也满足市场对灵活性和价格控制的需求。</p>
<p>整体上，人工智能计算能力的需求仍然相当庞大。亚马逊、微软、Alphabet 和 Meta 的资本支出预计在 2026 年将超过 <strong>4000 亿美元</strong>，其中很大一部分将用于数据中心和人工智能基础设施。</p>
<p>英伟达的定制芯片被用于大多数顶级人工智能公司的部署，即使它们正在尝试不同的供应商。此外，分析师认为，人工智能工作负载将使英伟达在短期内保持其主导地位。</p>
<h2>利润率、估值和投资者预期</h2>
<p>利润率将是市场在 2026 年密切关注的英伟达表现的重要指标。2024 和 2025 财年，毛利率保持在 70% 左右，这清楚地表明了英伟达的定价能力。</p>
<p>而在 2026 财年，由于高昂的支出，毛利率缩减，受到 Blackwell 芯片平台开发的影响。管理层对盈利能力很快恢复到更高水平充满信心，但如果利润率出现长期下滑的情况，必然会对公司在市场上的强势地位产生质疑。</p>
<p>然而，英伟达的估值将仍然是其抵御任何竞争挑战的最强盾牌。该公司的股票交易约为前瞻性收益的 25 倍，远低于大多数 “七大奇迹” 竞争对手，甚至低于标准普尔 500 中许多增长缓慢的公司。</p>
<p>看涨的投资者将这一情景解读为市场已经考虑到人工智能支出将大幅下降。另一方面，持怀疑态度的投资者则认为，在竞争日益激烈的市场中，盈利预测是否仍然过于乐观。</p>
<h2>总结</h2>
<p>英伟达在 2026 年正处于一个转折点。像 Rubin 这样的新芯片平台正在进一步推动性能极限。另一方面，公司的客户、竞争对手和投资者并不认为增长会永远持续，并对其主导地位提出了挑战。</p>
<p>近期股价的回调并不是英伟达人工智能故事结束的信号，而是一种语气的变化。经过多年的上涨，市场在要求证明英伟达能够保护其利润率、价值，并在一个不再存在硬件稀缺的人工智能世界中仍然是必不可少的。</p>
<p>公司是否能够满足或让市场失望将是决定其历史性反弹是否还有机会的关键因素。</p>

<p>Nvidia 已经转变为一家领先的科技巨头，市值超过 5 万亿美元。然而，进入 2026 年，该公司面临着包括竞争加剧、利润压力以及对人工智能支出持怀疑态度等挑战。自十月以来，其股价已下跌 8%，引发投资者的担忧。Nvidia 在人工智能加速器市场占据主导地位，但正受到 AMD 等竞争对手以及主要客户开发内部解决方案的挑战。尽管面临这些挑战，人工智能计算的需求依然强劲，分析师认为 Nvidia 在短期内将保持其市场地位，利润率将是 2026 年的关键关注点</p>

<p>Nvidia’s transformation from a specialized graphic chipmaker to the world’s most valuable company results in the great stock market stories of the decade. The company’s value <strong>increased to trillions of dollars</strong> within a very short time span, which is something rarely seen in modern financial history. However, entering into 2026, the momentum of the stock is no longer doubted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达从一家专业的图形芯片制造商转变为全球最有价值公司的过程，成为了本十年最伟大的股市故事之一。该公司的价值在短时间内 <strong>增加到数万亿美元</strong>，这是现代金融历史上罕见的现象。然而，进入 2026 年，股价的动能已不再受到质疑。</p>
</div><p>But after years of almost straight-line growth, Nvidia’s market capitalization is now facing tougher conditions. Nvidia’s valuation is facing a reality check in terms of competition, pressure on margins, and the questioning of the feasibility of the AI spending cycle by the investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在经历了几乎直线增长的多年后，英伟达的市值现在面临更严峻的条件。英伟达的估值正面临现实检验，包括竞争、利润压力以及投资者对人工智能支出周期可行性的质疑。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia’s shares have <strong>fallen 8%</strong> since its peak in late October, which is a significant drop when compared to the broader S&amp;P 500. This drop might seem very small, but it is quite heavy considering the prior rise of Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自去年十月底达到峰值以来，英伟达的股价 <strong>下跌了 8%</strong>，与更广泛的标准普尔 500 指数相比，这一跌幅相当显著。这个跌幅看似微小，但考虑到英伟达之前的上涨，实际上是相当沉重的。</p>
</div><p>The stock price went up more than <strong>1,300%</strong> from the end of 2022 to its recent peak, which drove the company’s market capitalization past the <strong>$5 trillion</strong> mark. Also, the company’s market capitalization being reduced by $460 billion in only a few months is a signal that the investors have shifted their focus from the company’s optimistic prospects to the current situation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2022 年底到最近的峰值，股价上涨超过 <strong>1300%</strong>，使公司的市值突破了 <strong>5 万亿美元</strong> 大关。此外，公司市值在短短几个月内减少了 4600 亿美元，这表明投资者已将关注点从公司的乐观前景转向当前的状况。</p>
</div><h2>Significance of Nvidia’s Stock to the Whole Market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达股票对整个市场的意义</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia does not only have the honor of being a big tech company, but it is the reason for the overall bullish trend that the stock market is experiencing. Since the beginning of the uptrend in October 2022, Nvidia’s contribution to the total gain of the S&amp;P 500 has been about <strong>16%</strong>, which is more than twice the impact of Apple that stands at 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达不仅荣幸地成为一家大型科技公司，而且也是推动股市整体看涨趋势的原因。自 2022 年 10 月上升趋势开始以来，英伟达对标准普尔 500 指数总收益的贡献约为 <strong>16%</strong>，是苹果公司 7% 影响的两倍多。</p>
</div><p>This kind of power means that any tiny flaw in Nvidia’s shares would be felt widely in the markets through global portfolios, ETFs, and retirement funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种影响力意味着英伟达股票的任何微小缺陷都会通过全球投资组合、ETF 和退休基金在市场上产生广泛的影响。</p>
</div><p>Such systemic significance is the reason why investors are now more watchful than ever for the risks that may arise. Nvidia’s supremacy has been created on the increased demand of AI accelerators, but the market is questioning today’s spending levels. When a single stock has this much influence, even a little fall can lead to enormous effects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种系统性的重要性是投资者现在比以往任何时候都更加关注可能出现的风险的原因。英伟达的主导地位是建立在对人工智能加速器需求增加的基础上，但市场对当前的支出水平提出了质疑。当一只股票具有如此大的影响力时，即使是小幅下跌也可能导致巨大的后果。</p>
</div><h2>Competition Is No Longer a Distant Threat</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>竞争不再是遥远的威胁</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia skilfully controls <strong>more than 90%</strong> of the AI accelerator market, but it is gradually being challenged as well. AMD has progressed significantly and even managed to get top-notch data center users like OpenAI and Oracle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达巧妙地控制着 <strong>超过 90%</strong> 的人工智能加速器市场，但它也逐渐面临挑战。AMD 取得了显著进展，甚至成功吸引了 OpenAI 和 Oracle 等顶级数据中心用户。</p>
</div><p>AMD’s revenue from data centers is expected to get close to $26 billion in 2026, which is a huge <strong>increase of 60%</strong> that shows people are more confident about GPU alternatives to Nvidia’s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计到 2026 年，AMD 来自数据中心的收入将接近 260 亿美元，这一 <strong>60% 的巨大增长</strong> 表明人们对 GPU 替代品的信心正在增强。</p>
</div><p>Besides, the biggest customers of Nvidia are becoming its most serious competitors. Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta represent more than <strong>40% of Nvidia’s revenue</strong>, but each one is heavily investing in chip designs to be free from dependence on Nvidia’s costly hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英伟达最大的客户正成为其最严峻的竞争对手。Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和 Meta 占据了英伟达 <strong>超过 40% 的收入</strong>，但每家公司都在大力投资芯片设计，以摆脱对英伟达昂贵硬件的依赖。</p>
</div><p>The prices of individual GPUs are often above $30,000, and the logic for developing in-house solutions is specifically strong at hyperscale levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>单个 GPU 的价格通常超过 3 万美元，因此在超大规模水平上开发内部解决方案的逻辑尤其强烈。</p>
</div><p>In more than 10 years of continuous improvement, Google’s Tensor Processing Units are now the driving force behind Google’s Gemini AI models. Rumor has it that Meta is thinking about future use of Google Cloud chips, while Broadcom has become a major winner in the shift towards the use of application-specific integrated circuits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在十多年的持续改进中，谷歌的张量处理单元现在已成为谷歌 Gemini AI 模型的驱动力。传言称 Meta 正在考虑未来使用谷歌云芯片，而博通则在向应用特定集成电路的转变中成为主要赢家。</p>
</div><p>The success of ASICs reflects on a supreme trend in the industry, where performance is a major factor but affordability is gaining importance too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASIC 的成功反映了行业中的一种主要趋势，即性能是一个重要因素，但可负担性也越来越重要。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia’s Strategic Response to a Changing Market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达对变化市场的战略响应</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia keeps on moving. The decision to license technology and hire talent from startup Groq indicates that the company realizes the future of AI computing might not be a standard solution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达持续前进。决定授权技术并从初创公司 Groq 招聘人才表明，该公司意识到人工智能计算的未来可能不是标准解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is defending its ecosystem with the implementation of lower-latency and more niche chip designs in next-generation products, while at the same time also meeting the market’s demand for flexibility and price control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达通过在下一代产品中实施低延迟和更具针对性的芯片设计来捍卫其生态系统，同时也满足市场对灵活性和价格控制的需求。</p>
</div><p>The demand overall for AI computing power is still quite massive. Capital expenses from Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, are likely to surpass more than <strong>$400 billion</strong> in 2026, with a large part going to data centers and AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整体上，人工智能计算能力的需求仍然相当庞大。亚马逊、微软、Alphabet 和 Meta 的资本支出预计在 2026 年将超过 <strong>4000 亿美元</strong>，其中很大一部分将用于数据中心和人工智能基础设施。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia’s custom chips are used to power most of the top AI companies’ deployments, even while they are experimenting with different vendors. Also, analysts do believe that the AI workloads will enable Nvidia to keep its supremacy for some time, at least up to the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的定制芯片被用于大多数顶级人工智能公司的部署，即使它们正在尝试不同的供应商。此外，分析师认为，人工智能工作负载将使英伟达在短期内保持其主导地位。</p>
</div><h2>Profit Margins, Valuation, and Investor Expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利润率、估值和投资者预期</h2>
</div><p>Profit margins will be one of the most important signs to be monitored closely by the market in Nvidia’s performance for 2026. Gross margins stayed put in the middle of the 70% range during fiscal 2024 and 2025, which was a clear signal of Nvidia’s pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利润率将是市场在 2026 年密切关注的英伟达表现的重要指标。2024 和 2025 财年，毛利率保持在 70% 左右，这清楚地表明了英伟达的定价能力。</p>
</div><p>The opposite was the case in fiscal 2026 when the gross margins shrunk due to the high expenses, which suffered from the development of the Blackwell chip platform. The management is confident that the profitability will get back to the higher level soon, but the scenario where there is a long-lasting downturn in margins would definitely lead to questioning of the company’s stronghold position in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而在 2026 财年，由于高昂的支出，毛利率缩减，受到 Blackwell 芯片平台开发的影响。管理层对盈利能力很快恢复到更高水平充满信心，但如果利润率出现长期下滑的情况，必然会对公司在市场上的强势地位产生质疑。</p>
</div><p>However, Nvidia’s valuation will remain its strongest shield against any competitive challenge to its position. The company’s stock is trading at around 25 times forward earnings, where the stock is significantly lower than most of the Magnificent Seven competitors and even lower than many slow-growing companies in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，英伟达的估值将仍然是其抵御任何竞争挑战的最强盾牌。该公司的股票交易约为前瞻性收益的 25 倍，远低于大多数 “七大奇迹” 竞争对手，甚至低于标准普尔 500 中许多增长缓慢的公司。</p>
</div><p>Bullish investors interpret this scenario as the market having already factored in a very sharp decline in AI spending. On the other hand, skeptical investors see it as a question whether the earnings forecasts are still too optimistic in an ever more fierce market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看涨的投资者将这一情景解读为市场已经考虑到人工智能支出将大幅下降。另一方面，持怀疑态度的投资者则认为，在竞争日益激烈的市场中，盈利预测是否仍然过于乐观。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom Line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>总结</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia is now at a turning point in the year 2026. The new chip platforms like Rubin are pushing the performance limits even further. While, on the other hand, the company’s customers, competitors, and investors are not assuming the growth forever and are challenging its dominance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在 2026 年正处于一个转折点。像 Rubin 这样的新芯片平台正在进一步推动性能极限。另一方面，公司的客户、竞争对手和投资者并不认为增长会永远持续，并对其主导地位提出了挑战。</p>
</div><p>The recent pullback in stock price is not a signal for the end of the AI story of Nvidia, but a change of tone. The market after years of gains is asking for proof that Nvidia can protect its margins, value, and still be a must-have in an AI world that no longer has hardware scarcity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期股价的回调并不是英伟达人工智能故事结束的信号，而是一种语气的变化。经过多年的上涨，市场在要求证明英伟达能够保护其利润率、价值，并在一个不再存在硬件稀缺的人工智能世界中仍然是必不可少的。</p>
</div><p>The company’s ability to either live up to or disappoint the market’s expectations will be the deciding factor in whether its historic rally has another chance or not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司是否能够满足或让市场失望将是决定其历史性反弹是否还有机会的关键因素。</p>
</div>

英伟达在 2026 年进入市场时，虽然拥有强大的统治力，但也面临一些疑虑