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照片由 Taylor Brandon 提供，来源于 Unsplash
以色列银行昨日将其政策利率下调四分之一个百分点至 4%，这一举动令市场感到意外，尤其是在了解到自加沙冲突结束以来，经济一直处于扩张状态的情况下。在一份广泛的声明中，以色列银行提供了非常有说服力的理由，说明为何认为经济需要降息。
通货膨胀控制良好。 在过去 12 个月中，消费者价格仅上涨了 2.4%，远低于以色列银行设定的 1%-3% 的目标范围。更重要的是，银行预测通货膨胀可能会保持在目标范围内，甚至可能低于 2%。
货币过于强势。 尽管以色列银行并未明确针对以色列谢克尔，但它特别注意到，自 2025 年 4 月以来，谢克尔升值了 14%。以色列的经常账户余额持续保持在较高水平，每季度约为 50 亿美元。每季度还有额外的 50 亿美元通过外国直接投资流入该国，主要集中在其科技行业。
以色列谢克尔兑美元
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信贷市场健康 。 银行强调，国家的金融状况非常健康，风险溢价（以 CDS 利差衡量，作为一种债券保险）已恢复到战前水平。此外，特拉维夫股市表现出色，超越了经济合作与发展组织（OECD）中的所有其他市场。科技行业继续以往年高水平从国内外投资者那里筹集资金。
消费者支出再次增长。 消费信贷正在增长，2026 年的消费预测超过 7%，远高于通货膨胀率。过去一年，私营部门的工资平均增长了 5.5%，表明工人的实际工资持续增长。劳动力市场相对紧张，职位空缺与失业人数相比相对较高。
劳动力市场状况 由于军事预备役义务和参与率的显著下降，就业率已恢复到战前水平。换句话说，正常的劳动力市场条件已经恢复。
经济预测已被上调。 银行在假设加沙停火将持续以及征召的预备役人数将继续减少的前提下进行了预测。预计 2026 年 GDP 将增长 5.2%；通货膨胀将低于 2%；预算赤字将占 GDP 的 3.9%；债务与 GDP 比率为 68.5%。最后，银行预计到年底其利率将进一步降至 3.5%。
令许多观察者感到惊讶的是，银行在 11 月降息后如此迅速地在 1 月再次降息。显然，谢克尔的飙升及其对未来通货膨胀的影响为降息提供了空间，并为表现优于同类经济体的经济提供了更多刺激。
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以色列经济正在经历积极的转变，以色列银行意外将政策利率下调至 4%。这一决定是在通胀得到控制、谢克尔强劲以及信贷市场健康的背景下做出的。预计消费者支出将显著增长，工资上涨和紧张的劳动力市场是主要因素。对 2026 年的经济预测显示，国内生产总值（GDP）增长将达到 5.2%，通胀率低于 2%。银行预计在年底前将进一步降息，表明加沙冲突后的经济复苏势头强劲

<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_taylor-brandon-y8r0rtnriwm-unsplash.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_taylor-brandon-y8r0rtnriwm-unsplash.webp"/>
Photo by Taylor Brandon on Unsplash
<div class="lb-trans">照片由 Taylor Brandon 提供，来源于 Unsplash
</div>When the Bank of Israel lowered its policy rate by one-quarter point to 4% yesterday it caught the market by surprise, especially knowing how expansionary the economy has been since the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. In a wide ranging statement, the Bank of Israel offered very compelling reasons as to why it concluded that the economy needed a rate cut.
<div class="lb-trans">以色列银行昨日将其政策利率下调四分之一个百分点至 4%，这一举动令市场感到意外，尤其是在了解到自加沙冲突结束以来，经济一直处于扩张状态的情况下。在一份广泛的声明中，以色列银行提供了非常有说服力的理由，说明为何认为经济需要降息。
</div>Inflation is well under control. Over the past 12 months consumer prices have increased by a very modest 2.4%, well within the Bank’s target range of 1%-3%. More importantly, the Bank forecasts that inflation will likely remain within the target range, possibly going below 2%.
<div class="lb-trans">通货膨胀控制良好。 在过去 12 个月中，消费者价格仅上涨了 2.4%，远低于以色列银行设定的 1%-3% 的目标范围。更重要的是，银行预测通货膨胀可能会保持在目标范围内，甚至可能低于 2%。
</div>Currency is too strong. Although the Bank does not target the Israeli shekel explicitly, it does take particular note the shekel appreciated by 14% since April, 2025. Israel continues to run large current account balances, approximately $ 5 billion a quarter. An additional $ 5 billion a quarter enters the country through foreign direct investment, principally into its tech sector.
<div class="lb-trans">货币过于强势。 尽管以色列银行并未明确针对以色列谢克尔，但它特别注意到，自 2025 年 4 月以来，谢克尔升值了 14%。以色列的经常账户余额持续保持在较高水平，每季度约为 50 亿美元。每季度还有额外的 50 亿美元通过外国直接投资流入该国，主要集中在其科技行业。
</div>Israeli Shekel per USD
<div class="lb-trans">以色列谢克尔兑美元
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_isr.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_isr.webp"/>
<div class="lb-trans"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_isr.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/mirjana-mishevska/user_content/ckimages/orig_isr.webp"/>
</div>Credit markets are healthy . The Bank emphasizes that the nation’s financial situation is very healthy, as risk premia, as measured by CDS spreads ( a form of bond insurance) are back to pre-war levels. Also, the Tel Aviv stock market had an outstanding year, outpacing all other markets in the OECD. The tech sector continues to raise capital from domestic and overseas investors at previous high levels.
<div class="lb-trans">信贷市场健康 。 银行强调，国家的金融状况非常健康，风险溢价（以 CDS 利差衡量，作为一种债券保险）已恢复到战前水平。此外，特拉维夫股市表现出色，超越了经济合作与发展组织（OECD）中的所有其他市场。科技行业继续以往年高水平从国内外投资者那里筹集资金。
</div>Consumer spending once again. Consumer credit is growing, and2026 forecasts for consumption are in excess of 7%, well above the inflation rate.Wage increases in the private sector averaged 5.5% over the last year, indicating workers' real wages continue to grow. The labour market remains relatively tight with job openings relativelyhigh in relation to the number of unemployed.
<div class="lb-trans">消费者支出再次增长。 消费信贷正在增长，2026 年的消费预测超过 7%，远高于通货膨胀率。过去一年，私营部门的工资平均增长了 5.5%，表明工人的实际工资持续增长。劳动力市场相对紧张，职位空缺与失业人数相比相对较高。
</div>Labour market conditions have improved due to a dramatic decline in military reserve duty and participation rates and employment rates returning to pre-war levels. In other words, normal labour market conditions have returned.
<div class="lb-trans">劳动力市场状况 由于军事预备役义务和参与率的显著下降，就业率已恢复到战前水平。换句话说，正常的劳动力市场条件已经恢复。
</div>Economic forecasts have been upgraded. The Bank conducted its forecast on the assumption the ceasefire in Gaza will be maintained and that the number of reservists called up willcontinue to decline. GDP for 2026 is forecasted to expand by 5.2% ;inflation will be under 2%; the budget deficit will be 3.9% of GDP; and, the debt to GDP ratio at 68.5% Finally, the Bank expects that its interest rate will decline further to 3.5% by year’s end.
<div class="lb-trans">经济预测已被上调。 银行在假设加沙停火将持续以及征召的预备役人数将继续减少的前提下进行了预测。预计 2026 年 GDP 将增长 5.2%；通货膨胀将低于 2%；预算赤字将占 GDP 的 3.9%；债务与 GDP 比率为 68.5%。最后，银行预计到年底其利率将进一步降至 3.5%。
</div>What surprised many observers was that the Bank followedits Novemberrate cut so soon in January. Clearly, the surge in the shekel and its impact on future inflation provided the roomto cut the rate and provide even more stimulus to an economy that is performing better than its peer group.
<div class="lb-trans">令许多观察者感到惊讶的是，银行在 11 月降息后如此迅速地在 1 月再次降息。显然，谢克尔的飙升及其对未来通货膨胀的影响为降息提供了空间，并为表现优于同类经济体的经济提供了更多刺激。
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>More By This Author:
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</div>

Israel’s Economy Enters A Sweet Spot

- 以色列银行将政策利率下调至 4%，出乎市场意料。
- 通胀控制在 2.4%，且预计未来保持在目标范围内。
- 经济预测显示 2026 年 GDP 增长 5.2%，预算赤字 3.9%。

以色列的经济进入了一个理想的状态