<p>周二交易中，<strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: SOFI) 是最活跃交易的证券之一，但其股价下跌约 9%，因此获得了这一不光彩的称号。更令人困惑的是，似乎并没有明显的催化剂导致这一崩溃。可能，SOFI 股票是对过高估值和加密货币领域疲软的担忧做出的反应。不过，亏损可能隐藏着一个逆向投资的机会。</p>
<p>从基本面来看，专家可能会指出 SOFI 股票吸引了&#34;高&#34;的倍数。目前，SOFI 的交易价格超过 49 倍的未来收益和近 11 倍的过去一年销售额。需要注意的是，估值比率并不是普遍的真理。当 SoFi 被标记为&#34;高估&#34;或&#34;完美定价&#34;时，您应该记住，这一说法是相对于一个主观框架的。</p>
<p>换句话说，如果您改变框架，价值的定义也会随之改变。然而，必须承认，人类情感在企业的感知中起着作用——这种感知可以改变现实，这种现象被称为反身性。因此，如果足够多的人认为 SOFI 股票价格过高，那么这一描述可能最终会成为定义标签。</p>
<p>在更具体的层面上，持续的加密货币疲软也可能对这家金融科技公司造成压力。确实，区块链生态系统的波动并不是新现象。然而，SoFi 的加密服务对该品牌来说是一个稳固的业务。任何对该业务产生负面影响的因素——包括持续的熊市周期——都可能对 SOFI 股票造成伤害。</p>
<p>不过，有一点需要坚持的是，反身性可以朝两个方向发挥作用。虽然 SOFI 股票可能看起来被高估，但也有可能——尤其是在今天的崩盘之后——交易者可能很快会看到潜在的折扣在前方。</p>
<h2>SOFI 股票可能为反弹而结构化</h2>
<p>作为一个经验法则，每当您在市场上进行交易——尤其是在期权领域——您应该假设自己处于劣势。这是因为您处于几乎所有事情的下游，从交易速度到数据流，甚至到专家意见。在关键信息到达您之前，它可能已经经过了其他几个实体。</p>
<p>然而，散户交易者相对于华尔街机器的一个优势是分析灵活性。具体来说，市场制造商或多或少必须单调定价风险，这意味着风险与现货价格的距离成正比。用体育类比，投篮比三分球更容易，主要是因为距离篮筐的差异。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="422" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>然而，在某些比赛情况下，通往投篮的路线可能会受到严密防守。在这些情况下，更为概率上明智的举动是将球传给站在三分线外的空位球员。虽然后续的投篮尝试在纸面上会更困难，但在上下文中，这是一项更轻松的努力。</p>
<p>截至周二收盘，SOFI 股票在过去 10 周内仅上涨了三周，导致下行趋势。通常，这种情况会被视为对多头交易者的风险，因为空头似乎掌控了局面。然而，我们知道通过过去的 3-7-D（上涨三周，下跌七周，下行趋势）序列的类比，未来 10 周通常会向上解决。</p>
<p>展望未来，与 3-7-D 序列相关的结果通常在$25.50 到$28.50 之间（假设现货价格为$26.25）。主要概率密度可能在$27.10 左右达到峰值，标志着理想的上行目标。然而，也可能有理由将目标推得更远。</p>
<h2>风险地形揭示进一步的洞察</h2>
<p>为了更好地理解如何应用上述洞察，我们可以查看风险地形，这是对需求结构的三维视图。风险地形涵盖预期（终端）价格、概率密度和人口发生。基本上，这个工具回答了交易者常问的三个问题：多少、可能性有多大和频率如何？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>关于 SOFI 股票，我们知道多少（就预期价格分布而言）和可能性（概率质量的高度）。通过风险地形，我们可以回答频率问题。在$27 到$28 之间，预计在接下来的 10 周内会出现显著活动。</p>
<p>如前所述，终端结果可能会瞄准$27.10。然而，股票市场是极其流动的，预计在$27 到$28 之间的活动增加支持了 SOFI 股票可能在上边界附近终止的观点。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，我关注的是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 27/28 牛市看涨期权价差。这笔交易将$46 置于风险之中，以换取最大利润$54，或超过 117% 的最大回报。盈亏平衡点在$27.46 附近，接近峰值概率密度。</p>
<p>关于上述盈亏平衡价格的重要一点是，在像 Black-Scholes 这样的单调风险模型下，盈亏平衡价格低于$26.70 的期权交易具有更高的成功概率，这很有道理。然而，在我使用的非单调模型下，$26.70 和$27.46 的相对风险大致相同。</p>
<p>换句话说，如果相对风险没有惩罚，我理性地倾向于选择更高整体回报的赌注。这就是为什么我选择 27/28 看涨期权价差而不是其他提议。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

SOFI

<p>SoFi Technologies（纳斯达克代码：SOFI）因估值担忧和加密货币行业疲软而经历了 9% 的下跌，这引发了人们对其被高估的看法的质疑。尽管如此，一些分析师建议，随着交易者可能很快将 SOFI 股票视为潜在折扣，可能会出现逆向机会。历史趋势表明，在经历三周上涨后再经历七周下跌，股票通常会反弹，预计 SOFI 在接下来的 10 周内目标在 25.50 美元到 28.50 美元之间，峰值约为 27.10 美元。正在考虑进行牛市看涨价差交易以获取潜在收益</p>

<p>One of the most actively traded securities on Tuesday, <strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: SOFI) earned this distinction dubiously, with its security falling about 9%. Adding to the perplexing development is that there doesn't seem to be a distinct catalyst for the implosion. Possibly, SOFI stock is responding to concerns associated with excessive valuations, along with weakness in the cryptocurrency sector. Still, the red ink may be hiding a contrarian opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二交易中，<strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: SOFI) 是最活跃交易的证券之一，但其股价下跌约 9%，因此获得了这一不光彩的称号。更令人困惑的是，似乎并没有明显的催化剂导致这一崩溃。可能，SOFI 股票是对过高估值和加密货币领域疲软的担忧做出的反应。不过，亏损可能隐藏着一个逆向投资的机会。</p>
</div><p>Fundamentally, experts may point to the &#34;rich&#34; multiples that SOFI stock has attracted. Currently, SOFI trades for over 49-times forward earnings and almost 11-times trailing-year sales. To be sure, valuation ratios are not universal truth claims. When SoFi is labeled as &#34;overvalued&#34; or &#34;priced for perfection,&#34; you should keep in mind that this assertion is relative to a subjective framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从基本面来看，专家可能会指出 SOFI 股票吸引了&#34;高&#34;的倍数。目前，SOFI 的交易价格超过 49 倍的未来收益和近 11 倍的过去一年销售额。需要注意的是，估值比率并不是普遍的真理。当 SoFi 被标记为&#34;高估&#34;或&#34;完美定价&#34;时，您应该记住，这一说法是相对于一个主观框架的。</p>
</div><p>In other words, if you change the framework, the definition of value would also change as well. However, it must be acknowledged that human emotions play into how an enterprise is perceived — and that perception can alter reality, a phenomenon known as reflexivity. So, if SOFI stock appears richly priced to enough people, that descriptor could end up being the defining label.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，如果您改变框架，价值的定义也会随之改变。然而，必须承认，人类情感在企业的感知中起着作用——这种感知可以改变现实，这种现象被称为反身性。因此，如果足够多的人认为 SOFI 股票价格过高，那么这一描述可能最终会成为定义标签。</p>
</div><p>On a more tangible note, lingering crypto weakness could also be weighing the fintech specialist down. Sure, volatility in the blockchain ecosystem is not a new development. However, SoFi's crypto service is a solid business for the brand. Anything that negatively disrupts that business — including extended bearish cycles — is liable to hurt SOFI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在更具体的层面上，持续的加密货币疲软也可能对这家金融科技公司造成压力。确实，区块链生态系统的波动并不是新现象。然而，SoFi 的加密服务对该品牌来说是一个稳固的业务。任何对该业务产生负面影响的因素——包括持续的熊市周期——都可能对 SOFI 股票造成伤害。</p>
</div><p>Still, one point to hold onto is that reflexivity can work in either direction. While SOFI stock may have appeared overvalued, it's also possible that — especially with today's fallout — traders may soon perceive a potential discount over the horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，有一点需要坚持的是，反身性可以朝两个方向发挥作用。虽然 SOFI 股票可能看起来被高估，但也有可能——尤其是在今天的崩盘之后——交易者可能很快会看到潜在的折扣在前方。</p>
</div><h2>SOFI Stock May Be Structured For A Rebound</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>SOFI 股票可能为反弹而结构化</h2>
</div><p>As a rule of thumb, any time you place a trade in the market — especially in the options arena — you should assume that you're trading at a disadvantage. That's because you're downstream of pretty much everything, from transaction speed to data flow to even expert opinion. By the time critical information gets to you, it has probably gone through several other entities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一个经验法则，每当您在市场上进行交易——尤其是在期权领域——您应该假设自己处于劣势。这是因为您处于几乎所有事情的下游，从交易速度到数据流，甚至到专家意见。在关键信息到达您之前，它可能已经经过了其他几个实体。</p>
</div><p>However, the one advantage that retail traders have over the Wall Street machinery is analytical flexibility. Specifically, market makers more or less must price risk monotonically, which means that risk rises in proportion to distance away from the spot price. To use a sports analogy, making a layup is easier than sinking a three-pointer, primarily due to the variance in distance to the basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，散户交易者相对于华尔街机器的一个优势是分析灵活性。具体来说，市场制造商或多或少必须单调定价风险，这意味着风险与现货价格的距离成正比。用体育类比，投篮比三分球更容易，主要是因为距离篮筐的差异。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>However, in certain game situations, the route to the layup may be heavily defended. Under these scenarios, the more probabilistically prudent move is to pass the ball to the open player standing outside the arc. While the subsequent shot attempt will be more difficult on paper, in context, it's an easier effort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在某些比赛情况下，通往投篮的路线可能会受到严密防守。在这些情况下，更为概率上明智的举动是将球传给站在三分线外的空位球员。虽然后续的投篮尝试在纸面上会更困难，但在上下文中，这是一项更轻松的努力。</p>
</div><p>Up until Tuesday's close, SOFI stock had printed only three up weeks in the last 10 weeks, leading to a downward slope. Ordinarily, such a circumstance would be considered risky for long-side traders as the bears would appear to have control. However, we know through past analogs of this 3-7-D (three up, seven down, downward trend) sequence that the forward 10 weeks generally tend to resolve upward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周二收盘，SOFI 股票在过去 10 周内仅上涨了三周，导致下行趋势。通常，这种情况会被视为对多头交易者的风险，因为空头似乎掌控了局面。然而，我们知道通过过去的 3-7-D（上涨三周，下跌七周，下行趋势）序列的类比，未来 10 周通常会向上解决。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, outcomes tied to the 3-7-D sequence typically land between $25.50 and $28.50 (assuming a spot price of $26.25). Predominantly, probability density would likely peak at around $27.10, marking an ideal upside target. However, there might be a case for pushing the needle a bit further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，与 3-7-D 序列相关的结果通常在$25.50 到$28.50 之间（假设现货价格为$26.25）。主要概率密度可能在$27.10 左右达到峰值，标志着理想的上行目标。然而，也可能有理由将目标推得更远。</p>
</div><h2>Risk Topography Reveals Further Insight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险地形揭示进一步的洞察</h2>
</div><p>To better understand how we can apply the insights above, we can look at risk topography, a three-dimensional view of demand structure. Risk topography encompasses expected (terminal) price, probability density and population occurrence. Essentially, this tool answers three common questions that traders ask: how much, how likely and how frequently?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了更好地理解如何应用上述洞察，我们可以查看风险地形，这是对需求结构的三维视图。风险地形涵盖预期（终端）价格、概率密度和人口发生。基本上，这个工具回答了交易者常问的三个问题：多少、可能性有多大和频率如何？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>Regarding SOFI stock, we're aware of how much (in terms of expected price distribution) and how likely (height of probability mass). With risk topography, we can answer the frequency question. Between $27 and $28, significant activity is expected to materialize over the course of the next 10 weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于 SOFI 股票，我们知道多少（就预期价格分布而言）和可能性（概率质量的高度）。通过风险地形，我们可以回答频率问题。在$27 到$28 之间，预计在接下来的 10 周内会出现显著活动。</p>
</div><p>As stated earlier, the terminal outcome would likely target $27.10. However, the equities market is incredibly fluid and the heightened anticipated activity between $27 and $28 lends credence to the idea that SOFI stock could terminate near the upper boundary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，终端结果可能会瞄准$27.10。然而，股票市场是极其流动的，预计在$27 到$28 之间的活动增加支持了 SOFI 股票可能在上边界附近终止的观点。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, I'm focused on the 27/28 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. This trade puts $46 at risk for the chance to make a maximum profit of $54, or a max payout of over 117%. Breakeven comes in at $27.46, which is near peak probability density.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，我关注的是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 27/28 牛市看涨期权价差。这笔交易将$46 置于风险之中，以换取最大利润$54，或超过 117% 的最大回报。盈亏平衡点在$27.46 附近，接近峰值概率密度。</p>
</div><p>An important point about the above breakeven price is that, under monotonic risk models such as Black-Scholes, options trades with a lower breakeven price of $26.70 feature a higher probability of success, which makes sense. However, under the non-monotonic model that I'm using, the relative risk of $26.70 and $27.46 is about the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于上述盈亏平衡价格的重要一点是，在像 Black-Scholes 这样的单调风险模型下，盈亏平衡价格低于$26.70 的期权交易具有更高的成功概率，这很有道理。然而，在我使用的非单调模型下，$26.70 和$27.46 的相对风险大致相同。</p>
</div><p>In other words, if there's no penalty in relative risk, I'm rationally inclined to take the wager with the greater holistic reward. That's why I'm targeting the 27/28 call spread over other propositions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，如果相对风险没有惩罚，我理性地倾向于选择更高整体回报的赌注。这就是为什么我选择 27/28 看涨期权价差而不是其他提议。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

期权角：SoFi Technologies 的崩溃提供了一个潜在的逆向交易机会