<p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<p>道琼斯理论信号本周首次触发，时隔一年多</p>
<p>道琼斯理论指标本周首次触发。这个看涨信号意味着什么？</p>
<p>一个被投资分析师使用了超过一个世纪的股市指标本周发出了看涨信号。</p>
<p>在一年多以来的第一次，道琼斯理论在周二发出了买入信号，当时道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）和道琼斯运输平均指数（DJT）在同一天都创下了历史收盘新高。</p>
<p>对于技术策略师来说，这标志着自 2022 年底以来的牛市仍然稳固，尽管一些高飞的人工智能股票最近表现不佳。</p>
<p>对于道琼斯工业平均指数来说，周二是自 1 月 5 日以来的首次创纪录高点。但道琼斯运输平均指数则更久没有创下新高；根据道琼斯市场数据，周二之前，其最近的纪录收盘是在 2024 年 11 月 25 日。</p>
<p>“这确认了长期牛市依然健康，” CMT 协会的联合创始人 Ralph Acampora 在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示。</p>
<p>在过去两个月中，美国股票经历了一场轮换交易，导致一些热门科技股如 Nvidia（NVDA）和 Broadcom（AVGO）回落，同时推动了价值股、周期性股票以及小型和中型指数中的小公司股票。Acampora 指出，运输股票尤其受益于这一趋势。</p>
<p>见：美国股市正在发生重大变化。这可能意味着 2026 年投资者将有更多机会。</p>
<p>Craig Johnson，Piper Sandler 的首席市场技术分析师表示，投资者对美国经济感到乐观。预计美联储将降息，分析师预测广泛的盈利增长，投资者押注于那些错过了火热的人工智能交易的股票在 2026 年仍然会有不错的表现。</p>
<p>“我认为毫无疑问，经济正在朝着正确的方向发展，” Johnson 告诉 MarketWatch。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，道琼斯理论的触发并不是本周美国股市中唯一出现的看涨信号：数据显示，标准普尔 400 中型股指数（MID）在周二创下自 12 月 11 日以来的首次历史收盘新高。</p>
<p>什么是道琼斯理论？</p>
<p>道琼斯理论基于道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数之间的共生关系，因为运输公司负责运输和交付工业公司生产的商品。该理论最初由道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数的创始人 Charles Dow 提出。（他还是道琼斯公司（Dow Jones &amp; Co.）的联合创始人，该公司出版 MarketWatch 和其他金融出版物，包括《华尔街日报》。）</p>
<p>为了发出看涨信号，两个平均指数需要 “确认” 对方的最新纪录高点。两个纪录收盘不需要在同一天发生，但应尽量接近，Acampora 指出。</p>
<p>从档案中看，不要因为道琼斯理论已有 100 多年历史而小觑它</p>
<p>自该指标首次创建以来，这两个平均指数发生了显著变化。道琼斯工业平均指数现在包括金融服务和科技公司的股票，而不仅仅是工业名称。同样，道琼斯运输平均指数也包括了共享出行巨头 Uber Technologies（UBER）和租车公司 Avis Budget Group（CAR）。</p>
<p>然而，Acampora 表示，该指标背后的基本逻辑仍然成立。当道琼斯在 19 世纪末创建运输平均指数时，它被称为道琼斯铁路平均指数。铁路股票仍然包含在运输平均指数中，尽管现在它们与航空公司以及像 FedEx（FDX）和联合包裹服务（UPS）这样的运输和物流公司共享空间。结果是：运输平均指数仍然专注于帮助在全国范围内运输商品和人员的公司。</p>
<p>周三，两个道琼斯平均指数均出现回落。道琼斯工业平均指数在最近的交易中下跌 391 点，或 0.8%，报 49,070 点。道琼斯运输平均指数则下跌 0.8%，报 17,894 点。</p>
<p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>01-07-26 1528ET</p>

<p>道琼斯理论指标首次在一年多以来发出买入信号，暗示股市前景看涨。该信号出现在道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数在同一天创下历史新高时。分析师认为，这表明自 2022 年底以来开始的牛市仍然强劲。市场正经历向价值股和小型公司的轮动，投资者对美国经济和美联储可能的降息持乐观态度</p>

<p>By Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi</p>
</div><p>The Dow Theory signal triggered this week for the first time in more than a year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯理论信号本周首次触发，时隔一年多</p>
</div><p>The Dow Theory indicator just triggered for the first time in more than a year. Here's what the bullish signal suggests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯理论指标本周首次触发。这个看涨信号意味着什么？</p>
</div><p>A stock-market indicator that has been used by investment analysts for more than a century flashed a bullish signal this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个被投资分析师使用了超过一个世纪的股市指标本周发出了看涨信号。</p>
</div><p>For the first time in more than a year, the Dow Theory flashed a buy signal on Tuesday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT both tallied record closing highs on the same day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一年多以来的第一次，道琼斯理论在周二发出了买入信号，当时道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）和道琼斯运输平均指数（DJT）在同一天都创下了历史收盘新高。</p>
</div><p>To technical strategists, this amounts to the latest sign that the bull market that began in late 2022 remains on solid footing, even if some highflying artificial-intelligence plays have struggled recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于技术策略师来说，这标志着自 2022 年底以来的牛市仍然稳固，尽管一些高飞的人工智能股票最近表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>For the Dow industrials average, Tuesday marked its first record high since Jan. 5. But the Dow transportation average had gone much longer without a fresh record high; prior to Tuesday, its most recent record finish occurred on Nov. 25, 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于道琼斯工业平均指数来说，周二是自 1 月 5 日以来的首次创纪录高点。但道琼斯运输平均指数则更久没有创下新高；根据道琼斯市场数据，周二之前，其最近的纪录收盘是在 2024 年 11 月 25 日。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It confirms that the secular bull market is alive and well,&#34; said Ralph Acampora, co-founder of the CMT Association, during an interview with MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这确认了长期牛市依然健康，” CMT 协会的联合创始人 Ralph Acampora 在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示。</p>
</div><p>For the past two months, U.S. stocks have been caught up in a rotation trade that has seen some air come out of hot tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) while boosting value stocks, cyclical names and shares of smaller companies included in small-cap and midcap indexes. Transportation stocks, in particular, have been big beneficiaries of this trend, Acampora pointed out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两个月中，美国股票经历了一场轮换交易，导致一些热门科技股如 Nvidia（NVDA）和 Broadcom（AVGO）回落，同时推动了价值股、周期性股票以及小型和中型指数中的小公司股票。Acampora 指出，运输股票尤其受益于这一趋势。</p>
</div><p>See: Big changes are afoot in the U.S. stock market. That could mean more opportunities for investors in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>见：美国股市正在发生重大变化。这可能意味着 2026 年投资者将有更多机会。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway is that investors are feeling optimistic about the U.S. economy, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates and analysts penciling in broad-based earnings growth, investors are betting that stocks that have missed out on the red-hot AI trade could still have a pretty good year in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Craig Johnson，Piper Sandler 的首席市场技术分析师表示，投资者对美国经济感到乐观。预计美联储将降息，分析师预测广泛的盈利增长，投资者押注于那些错过了火热的人工智能交易的股票在 2026 年仍然会有不错的表现。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think there's no question the economy is moving in the right direction,&#34; Johnson told MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为毫无疑问，经济正在朝着正确的方向发展，” Johnson 告诉 MarketWatch。</p>
</div><p>It also is worth noting that the Dow Theory trigger wasn't the only bullish signal to emerge from the U.S. equity market this week: The S&amp;P 400 midcap index MID tallied its first record closing high since Dec. 11 on Tuesday, data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，道琼斯理论的触发并不是本周美国股市中唯一出现的看涨信号：数据显示，标准普尔 400 中型股指数（MID）在周二创下自 12 月 11 日以来的首次历史收盘新高。</p>
</div><p>What is Dow Theory?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>什么是道琼斯理论？</p>
</div><p>Dow Theory is based on the assumption that the Dow industrials and the Dow transports have a symbiotic relationship, because transportation companies take and deliver what industrial companies make. The theory was first developed by Charles Dow, creator of both the Dow transportation and Dow industrials averages. (He also was the co-founder of Dow Jones &amp; Co., which publishes MarketWatch and other financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯理论基于道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数之间的共生关系，因为运输公司负责运输和交付工业公司生产的商品。该理论最初由道琼斯工业平均指数和道琼斯运输平均指数的创始人 Charles Dow 提出。（他还是道琼斯公司（Dow Jones &amp; Co.）的联合创始人，该公司出版 MarketWatch 和其他金融出版物，包括《华尔街日报》。）</p>
</div><p>For a bullish signal to be issued, both averages need to &#34;confirm&#34; a fresh record high in the other. The two record finishes don't need to happen on the same day, but they should occur close together, Acampora noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了发出看涨信号，两个平均指数需要 “确认” 对方的最新纪录高点。两个纪录收盘不需要在同一天发生，但应尽量接近，Acampora 指出。</p>
</div><p>From the archives Don't dis the Dow Theory just because it's over 100 years old</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从档案中看，不要因为道琼斯理论已有 100 多年历史而小觑它</p>
</div><p>Both averages have changed significantly since the indicator was first created more than a century ago. The Dow industrials now includes shares of financial-services and technology firms, not just industrial names. Similarly, the Dow transports includes ride-share giant Uber Technologies (UBER) and Avis Budget Group (CAR), a car-rental company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自该指标首次创建以来，这两个平均指数发生了显著变化。道琼斯工业平均指数现在包括金融服务和科技公司的股票，而不仅仅是工业名称。同样，道琼斯运输平均指数也包括了共享出行巨头 Uber Technologies（UBER）和租车公司 Avis Budget Group（CAR）。</p>
</div><p>Yet the underlying logic behind the indicator still holds, Acampora said. When Dow first created the transportation average in the late 19th century, it was called the Dow Jones Railroad Average. Railroad stocks are still included in the transportation average, although they now share space with airlines as well as shipping and logistics firms like FedEx (FDX) and United Parcel Service (UPS). The upshot: The transportation average remains squarely focused on companies that help move goods, and people, around the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Acampora 表示，该指标背后的基本逻辑仍然成立。当道琼斯在 19 世纪末创建运输平均指数时，它被称为道琼斯铁路平均指数。铁路股票仍然包含在运输平均指数中，尽管现在它们与航空公司以及像 FedEx（FDX）和联合包裹服务（UPS）这样的运输和物流公司共享空间。结果是：运输平均指数仍然专注于帮助在全国范围内运输商品和人员的公司。</p>
</div><p>Both Dow averages were in retreat on Wednesday. The Dow industrials were off by 391 points, or 0.8%, at 49,070 in recent trade. The Dow transports, meanwhile, were down 0.8% at 17,894.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，两个道琼斯平均指数均出现回落。道琼斯工业平均指数在最近的交易中下跌 391 点，或 0.8%，报 49,070 点。道琼斯运输平均指数则下跌 0.8%，报 17,894 点。</p>
</div><p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>01-07-26 1528ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-07-26 1528ET</p>
</div>

这个已有 100 年历史的股票市场指标刚刚发出了买入信号。投资者应该这样解读它