<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>银现在处于一场关于关键元素的地缘政治角力的中心。</p>
<p>显然，中国最近宣布对银的出口控制，旨在控制市场。这可能会加剧全球供应短缺，已经造成了显著的银价压力。</p>
<p>根据于 1 月 1 日生效的政策，只有年产银能力达到 80 吨且信用额度超过 3000 万美元的大型、获得国家批准的公司才能出口银。分析师表示，这些规则将使数百家中小型出口商被排除在外。这些小型企业是全球工业用户和银精炼商的关键供应商。</p>
<p>政府最近发布了 44 家根据新规则获准出口银的公司名单。根据 CNBC 的报道，一位匿名行业内部人士表示，该政策将银从普通商品提升为战略物资，使其出口控制与稀土金属处于同一监管水平。</p>
<p>美国也认识到银日益重要的地位。美国地质调查局最近将银指定为 “关键矿物”。USGS 关键矿物名单于 2017 年建立，指导联邦战略、投资和矿山许可决策。</p>
<p>除了银，中国政府还对钨和锑实施了出口限制，这些元素在国防技术中至关重要。</p>
<p>出口控制是中国地缘政治手册中的标准举措。中国政府曾使用类似规则来控制其他稀土金属的市场。分析师 Faysal Amin 表示，中国使用出口控制 “<em>以确保国内工业优势和全球定价权</em>。”</p>
<p>中国在全球银矿生产中排名第二，但通过其庞大的精炼能力主导了银市场。该国控制着全球 60% 至 70% 的精炼银供应。</p>
<p>根据伦敦金银市场协会的数据，中国拥有 27 家获得认证的银精炼厂。第二多的精炼厂在日本，仅有 13 家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-refining-capacity-2025-min.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="470" height="551" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-refining-capacity-2025-min.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>武器化银</strong></h3>
<p>LiveMint.com 表示，中国庞大的精炼能力实际上使该国成为 “精炼银供应的守门人”。</p>
<p> “这个模式很简单：中国进口银矿石和基础金属浓缩物，在国内精炼，然后出口成品。”</p>
<p>中国在 2025 年前 11 个月出口了 4600 吨银。进口总量仅为 220 吨。</p>
<p>在《MarketWatch》发表的一篇社论中，R360 创始人 Charlie Garcia 直言不讳。</p>
<p> “中国刚刚武器化了银。而他们是在美国人忙于争论比特币是否是真正货币的时候做到的。”</p>
<p>Garcia 解释说，这是中国手册中的常见策略，他们在稀土金属上成功实施过。</p>
<p> “2010 年，北京开始对稀土出口进行 ‘许可’。并不是禁止它们，而是要求文书工作、批准、配额，这些配额总是无法满足需求。效果是外科手术般的；随着价格飙升至 4500%，西方制造商发现他们无法在没有中国许可的情况下制造智能手机或导弹——一代供应链高管以艰难的方式学会了普通话。稀土的紧缩并不戏剧化，而是官僚化的。通过成千上万的表格填写而导致的死亡。”</p>
<p>西方通过加大对这些金属的开采逃脱了稀土的束缚。但在银方面，这并非易事。即使在价格上涨的情况下，分析师表示，银的生产也需要数年才能达到需求水平。</p>
<p>全球矿产产量自 2016 年达到峰值以来一直在下降。</p>
<p>Metals Focus 预测，尽管我们将在未来五年看到创纪录的银价，但 “<em>矿供应增长可能仍然温和，全球仅有微小的增加</em>。”</p>
<p>为什么银的生产不会增加以满足需求并利用这些更高的价格？</p>
<p>Metals Focus 将价格的非弹性归因于超过一半的银是作为基础金属操作的副产品开采的。</p>
<p> “尽管银可以成为重要的收入来源，但这些矿山的经济和生产计划主要受铜、铅和锌市场的驱动。因此，即使银价显著上涨，也不太可能影响依赖其他金属的生产计划。”</p>
<p>约 28% 的银供应来自主要银矿，其生产与价格的关系更为紧密。但银矿面临自身的挑战，包括矿石品位下降和快速上升的开采成本。</p>
<p>2024 年，美国银矿产量约增长 6%，达到约 1100 吨。然而，美国的矿产产量近年来也保持平稳。</p>
<p>平稳的矿产生产加剧了供应紧张。</p>
<p>银的需求在连续四年超过供应。去年的结构性市场赤字为 1.489 亿盎司。这使得四年的市场短缺达到 6.78 亿盎司，相当于 2024 年 10 个月的矿产供应。</p>
<p>银研究所预计今年将出现第五年连续的供应赤字。</p>
<p>Garcia 指出，从新发现的银矿中开采出一盎司金属需要 10 到 20 年。</p>
<p> “供应骑兵不会到来。它在地质上被困在交通中。”</p>
<p>Garcia 还对铜能否在关键技术应用中替代银的希望提出质疑，例如太阳能。虽然工程师已经证明铜可以替代太阳能电池板中的银，但这并不意味着你会在明天看到掺铜的太阳能农场。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“实验室结果没有告诉你的是：将单个太阳能电池厂转换为铜需要 18 个月。全球有 300 个这样的工厂。最大并行转换能力约为每年 60 个工厂。算一下。这至少需要四年才能达到一半的目标，假设有无限的资本和完美的执行。太阳能制造商并不傻。他们已经吸收了银价 180% 的上涨。他们继续购买，因为别无选择。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>加西亚估计，银价必须上涨到每盎司 134 美元，才能在太阳能行业看到显著的需求破坏。</p>
<p>中国为什么要垄断银市场？加西亚表示，这是经济主导权的问题。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“北京并不是因为担心投机而限制出口。中国限制出口是因为它需要银，并且已经发现了华盛顿没有意识到的事情。清洁能源转型依赖于金属，谁控制金属，谁就控制转型。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>而且不要忘记，国防工业也严重依赖银。由于行业的保密性质，没有关于国防应用中使用多少银的确切数据。然而，分析师表示，这个数量是相当可观的。</p>
<p>加西亚表示，进口限制向西方传达了一个信息。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“如果你想建设未来的能源，你需要与北京谈判。也许你的银货物会被批准。也许会有延误。也许你会突然对中国的合资企业和技术转让产生兴趣。真有趣……中国刚刚告诉我们一些重要的事情，而且并不复杂。银不再是一种商品。它是资源战争中的战略资产，而大多数美国人并不知道这场战争正在进行。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>鉴于不断变化的动态，加西亚表示，持有一些实物银可能不是个坏主意。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“持有金属的理由是有的。没有对手方风险。没有保证金要求。只有银，静静地增值，而北京的官僚们将出口申请搁置在 “待处理” 堆中。”</p>
</blockquote>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美联储悄然转向的 5 个迹象（黄金的下一步？）</p>
<p>中央银行的黄金购买势头在 11 月持续</p>
<p>金融系统出现紧张迹象</p>

<p>中国已对银的出口实施管制，限制出口仅限于大型国有批准公司，这可能加剧全球供应短缺。这一举措将银提升为战略物资，类似于稀土金属。分析师警告称，这些限制将使小型出口商被排除在外，而小型出口商对工业用户至关重要。中国在精炼银市场占主导地位，控制着 60-70% 的供应。美国将银视为关键矿物，专家预测在持续的供应短缺中，银价将创下新高。结构性市场赤字已持续四年，预计短缺将继续</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Silver now finds itself at the center of a geopolitical wrestling match over critical elements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银现在处于一场关于关键元素的地缘政治角力的中心。</p>
</div><p>In what is clearly an effort to control the market, China recently announced export controls on silver. This could exacerbate global supply shortages already creating a significant silver squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，中国最近宣布对银的出口控制，旨在控制市场。这可能会加剧全球供应短缺，已经造成了显著的银价压力。</p>
</div><p>Under the policy that took effect on January 1, only large, licensed, state-approved companies with an annual silver production capacity of 80 tonnes and a credit line exceeding $30 million can export silver. According to analysts, the rules will lock hundreds of small and mid-sized exporters out of the system. These smaller firms are key suppliers to industrial users and silver refiners around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据于 1 月 1 日生效的政策，只有年产银能力达到 80 吨且信用额度超过 3000 万美元的大型、获得国家批准的公司才能出口银。分析师表示，这些规则将使数百家中小型出口商被排除在外。这些小型企业是全球工业用户和银精炼商的关键供应商。</p>
</div><p>The government recently released a list of 44 companies approved to export silver under the new rules. According to CNBC, a Chinese state news source quoted an unnamed industry insider who said the policy elevates silver from an ordinary commodity to a strategic material, placing its export controls on the same regulatory footing as rare earth metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府最近发布了 44 家根据新规则获准出口银的公司名单。根据 CNBC 的报道，一位匿名行业内部人士表示，该政策将银从普通商品提升为战略物资，使其出口控制与稀土金属处于同一监管水平。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. also recognizes the growing importance of silver. The U.S. Geological Survey recently designated silver a “critical mineral.” The USGS critical mineral list was established in 2017, and it guides federal strategy, investment, and mine permitting decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国也认识到银日益重要的地位。美国地质调查局最近将银指定为 “关键矿物”。USGS 关键矿物名单于 2017 年建立，指导联邦战略、投资和矿山许可决策。</p>
</div><p>Along with silver, the Chinese government slapped export restrictions on tungsten and antimony, elements critical in defense technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了银，中国政府还对钨和锑实施了出口限制，这些元素在国防技术中至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Export controls are a standard move in China’s geopolitical playbook. The Chinese government has used similar rules to control the market for other rare earth metals. Analyst Faysal Amin said China uses export controls “ <em>to secure domestic industrial advantage and global pricing power</em>.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>出口控制是中国地缘政治手册中的标准举措。中国政府曾使用类似规则来控制其他稀土金属的市场。分析师 Faysal Amin 表示，中国使用出口控制 “<em>以确保国内工业优势和全球定价权</em>。”</p>
</div><p>China ranks second in global silver mine production, but the Chinese dominate the silver market through their massive refining capacity. The country controls 60 to 70 percent of the world’s refined silver supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国在全球银矿生产中排名第二，但通过其庞大的精炼能力主导了银市场。该国控制着全球 60% 至 70% 的精炼银供应。</p>
</div><p>According to the London Bullion Market Association, China is home to 27 accredited silver refineries. The second largest number of refineries is in Japan, with only 13.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据伦敦金银市场协会的数据，中国拥有 27 家获得认证的银精炼厂。第二多的精炼厂在日本，仅有 13 家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-refining-capacity-2025-min.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-refining-capacity-2025-min.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Weaponizing Silver</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>武器化银</strong></h3>
</div><p>LiveMint.com said China’s huge refining capacity effectively makes the country “the gatekeeper of the refined silver supply.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LiveMint.com 表示，中国庞大的精炼能力实际上使该国成为 “精炼银供应的守门人”。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The model is straightforward: China imports silver ore and base metal concentrates, refines them domestically, and exports the finished product.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> “这个模式很简单：中国进口银矿石和基础金属浓缩物，在国内精炼，然后出口成品。”</p>
</div><p>China exported 4,600 tonnes of silver through the first 11 months of 2025. Imports totaled just 220 tonnes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国在 2025 年前 11 个月出口了 4600 吨银。进口总量仅为 220 吨。</p>
</div><p>In an editorial published by <em>MarketWatch</em>, R360 founder Charlie Garcia put it bluntly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《MarketWatch》发表的一篇社论中，R360 创始人 Charlie Garcia 直言不讳。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“China just weaponized silver. And they did it while Americans were busy arguing about whether bitcoin is real money.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> “中国刚刚武器化了银。而他们是在美国人忙于争论比特币是否是真正货币的时候做到的。”</p>
</div><p>Garcia explains how this is a common play from the Chinese playbook, one they successfully ran against rare earth metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Garcia 解释说，这是中国手册中的常见策略，他们在稀土金属上成功实施过。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“In 2010, Beijing started 'licensing' rare-earth exports. Not banning them, mind you. Just requiring paperwork. Approvals. Quotas that somehow never quite met demand. The effect was surgical; as prices spiked up to 4,500 percent, Western manufacturers discovered they couldn’t build smartphones or missiles without Chinese permission — and a generation of supply-chain executives learned Mandarin the hard way. The rare-earth squeeze wasn’t dramatic. It was bureaucratic. Death by a thousand forms filed in triplicate.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> “2010 年，北京开始对稀土出口进行 ‘许可’。并不是禁止它们，而是要求文书工作、批准、配额，这些配额总是无法满足需求。效果是外科手术般的；随着价格飙升至 4500%，西方制造商发现他们无法在没有中国许可的情况下制造智能手机或导弹——一代供应链高管以艰难的方式学会了普通话。稀土的紧缩并不戏剧化，而是官僚化的。通过成千上万的表格填写而导致的死亡。”</p>
</div><p>The West escaped the rare earth noose by ramping up mining of these metals. But that’s easier said than done when it comes to silver. Even with higher prices, analysts say it will take years for silver production to rise to the level of demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西方通过加大对这些金属的开采逃脱了稀土的束缚。但在银方面，这并非易事。即使在价格上涨的情况下，分析师表示，银的生产也需要数年才能达到需求水平。</p>
</div><p>Globally, mine output has sagged since peaking in 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球矿产产量自 2016 年达到峰值以来一直在下降。</p>
</div><p>Metals Focus forecasts that while we will see record silver prices over the next five years, “ <em>mine supply growth is likely to remain modest, with only minimal increases globally</em>.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Metals Focus 预测，尽管我们将在未来五年看到创纪录的银价，但 “<em>矿供应增长可能仍然温和，全球仅有微小的增加</em>。”</p>
</div><p>Why won’t silver production ramp up to meet the demand and take advantage of these higher prices?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么银的生产不会增加以满足需求并利用这些更高的价格？</p>
</div><p>Metals Focus blames the price inelasticity on the fact that more than half of silver is mined as a byproduct of base metal operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Metals Focus 将价格的非弹性归因于超过一半的银是作为基础金属操作的副产品开采的。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Although silver can be a significant revenue stream, the economics and production plans of these mines are primarily driven by the markets for copper, lead and zinc. Consequently, even significant increases in silver prices are unlikely to influence production plans that are dependent on other metals.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> “尽管银可以成为重要的收入来源，但这些矿山的经济和生产计划主要受铜、铅和锌市场的驱动。因此，即使银价显著上涨，也不太可能影响依赖其他金属的生产计划。”</p>
</div><p>About 28 percent of the silver supply is derived from primary silver mines, where production is more tightly tied to price. But silver mines face their own challenges, including declining ore grades and rapidly rising mining costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>约 28% 的银供应来自主要银矿，其生产与价格的关系更为紧密。但银矿面临自身的挑战，包括矿石品位下降和快速上升的开采成本。</p>
</div><p>U.S. silver mine output was up about 6 percent in 2024 at around 1,100 tonnes. However, U.S. mine output has also been flat in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年，美国银矿产量约增长 6%，达到约 1100 吨。然而，美国的矿产产量近年来也保持平稳。</p>
</div><p>Flat mine production is exacerbating tight supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平稳的矿产生产加剧了供应紧张。</p>
</div><p>Silver demand has outstripped supply for four straight years. The structural market deficit came in at 148.9 million ounces last year. That drove the four-year market shortfall to 678 million ounces, the equivalent of 10 months of mining supply in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银的需求在连续四年超过供应。去年的结构性市场赤字为 1.489 亿盎司。这使得四年的市场短缺达到 6.78 亿盎司，相当于 2024 年 10 个月的矿产供应。</p>
</div><p>The Silver Institute projects a fifth straight supply deficit this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银研究所预计今年将出现第五年连续的供应赤字。</p>
</div><p>Garcia pointed out that it takes 10 to 20 years before an ounce of metal is mined from a newly discovered silver deposit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Garcia 指出，从新发现的银矿中开采出一盎司金属需要 10 到 20 年。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The supply cavalry isn’t coming. It’s geologically stuck in traffic.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p> “供应骑兵不会到来。它在地质上被困在交通中。”</p>
</div><p>Garcia also took aim at the hope that copper can replace silver in critical tech applications, such as solar energy. While engineers have proven copper can replace silver in solar panels, that doesn’t mean you’re going to see copper-infused solar farms tomorrow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Garcia 还对铜能否在关键技术应用中替代银的希望提出质疑，例如太阳能。虽然工程师已经证明铜可以替代太阳能电池板中的银，但这并不意味着你会在明天看到掺铜的太阳能农场。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Here’s what the lab results don’t tell you: Converting a single solar-cell factory to copper takes 18 months. There are 300 such factories worldwide. Maximum parallel conversion capacity is about 60 factories per year. Do the math. That’s a minimum of four years to get halfway there, assuming unlimited capital and perfect execution. Solar manufacturers aren’t stupid. They’ve been absorbing silver’s 180 percent price increase all year. They keep buying because they have no choice.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“实验室结果没有告诉你的是：将单个太阳能电池厂转换为铜需要 18 个月。全球有 300 个这样的工厂。最大并行转换能力约为每年 60 个工厂。算一下。这至少需要四年才能达到一半的目标，假设有无限的资本和完美的执行。太阳能制造商并不傻。他们已经吸收了银价 180% 的上涨。他们继续购买，因为别无选择。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Garcia estimates that silver will have to rise to $134 an ounce before we see significant demand destruction in the solar sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加西亚估计，银价必须上涨到每盎司 134 美元，才能在太阳能行业看到显著的需求破坏。</p>
</div><p>Why is China seeking to corner the silver market? Garcia said it’s a matter of economic dominance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国为什么要垄断银市场？加西亚表示，这是经济主导权的问题。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Beijing isn’t restricting exports because the government is worried about speculation. China is restricting exports because it needs the silver and has figured out something Washington hasn’t. The clean-energy transition runs on metals, and whoever controls the metals controls the transition.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“北京并不是因为担心投机而限制出口。中国限制出口是因为它需要银，并且已经发现了华盛顿没有意识到的事情。清洁能源转型依赖于金属，谁控制金属，谁就控制转型。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>And don’t forget that the defense industry is also heavily dependent on silver. There are no hard figures on how much silver is used in defense applications due to the secretive nature of the industry. However, analysts say that it's significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且不要忘记，国防工业也严重依赖银。由于行业的保密性质，没有关于国防应用中使用多少银的确切数据。然而，分析师表示，这个数量是相当可观的。</p>
</div><p>Garcia said the import restrictions send a message to the West.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加西亚表示，进口限制向西方传达了一个信息。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“If you want to build the future of energy, you will need to negotiate with Beijing. Maybe your silver shipment will be approved. Maybe there will be delays. Maybe you’ll find yourself suddenly interested in Chinese joint ventures and technology transfers. Funny how that works. … China just told us something important, and it wasn’t complicated. Silver is no longer a commodity. It’s a strategic asset in a resource war that most Americans don’t know is being fought.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“如果你想建设未来的能源，你需要与北京谈判。也许你的银货物会被批准。也许会有延误。也许你会突然对中国的合资企业和技术转让产生兴趣。真有趣……中国刚刚告诉我们一些重要的事情，而且并不复杂。银不再是一种商品。它是资源战争中的战略资产，而大多数美国人并不知道这场战争正在进行。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Given the evolving dynamics, Garcia said it might not be a bad idea to hold on to some physical silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于不断变化的动态，加西亚表示，持有一些实物银可能不是个坏主意。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“There’s an argument for keeping metal in your possession. No counterparty risk. No margin calls. Just silver, sitting there, quietly appreciating while bureaucrats in Beijing shuffle export applications into the 'pending' pile.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“持有金属的理由是有的。没有对手方风险。没有保证金要求。只有银，静静地增值，而北京的官僚们将出口申请搁置在 “待处理” 堆中。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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中国正在利用出口限制将白银作为武器