<p>今晚 21:30，华尔街屏息以待 12 月非农就业报告。</p><p>非农就业人数预计在 12 月份增加 60,000</p><p>失业率预计将从 4.6% 降至 4.5%</p><p>平均时薪预计较去年上涨 3.6%</p><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p><p>华盛顿，1 月 9 日（路透社）——由于企业对招聘的谨慎态度，受进口关税和人工智能投资上升的影响，美国的就业增长在 12 月份可能放缓，尽管预计失业率将降至 4.5%，这可能支持美联储本月维持利率不变的预期。劳工部备受关注的就业报告预计将在周五发布，显示劳动力市场仍然处于经济学家和政策制定者所称的 “无招聘、无解雇” 模式。这也将确认经济处于无就业扩张状态。经济增长和劳动生产率在第三季度激增，部分归因于人工智能支出的繁荣。</p><p>“这并不是需求疲软，因为经济似乎表现不错，但企业在招聘新员工方面非常谨慎，” BMO 资本市场的高级经济学家 Sal Guatieri 表示。“这可能与希望控制成本有关，或许是面对关税的压力，但也因为许多企业相信，人工智能驱动的自动化将带来一些生产力的回报。”</p><p>非农就业人数在上个月可能增加了 60,000 个职位，预计在 11 月份反弹了 64,000 个职位，路透社对经济学家的调查估计。经济在 10 月份失去了 105,000 个职位，这是近五年来的最大降幅，主要是联邦政府员工因推迟离职而造成的。他们在 9 月底收到了最后一笔工资。</p><p>经济学家估计，每月需要创造 50,000 到 120,000 个职位，以跟上适龄劳动人口的增长。</p><p>去年，劳动力市场失去了相当大的动力，估计新增职位不到一百万。2024 年大约创造了 200 万个职位，但当劳工统计局下个月发布 1 月份就业报告时，这一数字可能会被下调。</p><p>劳工统计局估计，在截至 3 月份的 12 个月中，创造的职位比之前报告的少约 911,000 个。过度统计被归咎于出生 - 死亡模型，该模型用于估计因公司在某个月开业或关闭而增加或减少的职位数量。</p><p>上个月，劳工统计局表示，从 1 月份开始，将通过每月纳入当前样本信息来改变出生 - 死亡模型。</p><h3 id="q4cn5zya">去年就业增长急剧放缓</h3><p>去年就业增长的急剧放缓主要归因于唐纳德·特朗普总统的激进贸易和移民政策，经济学家和政策制定者表示，这减少了对工人需求和供应。一些经济学家表示，低供应阻止了失业率的急剧上升。</p><p>失业率在 11 月份从 9 月份的 4.4% 上升至超过四年的高点 4.6%，部分受到 43 天联邦政府停摆的扭曲影响，这也阻止了 10 月份家庭数据的收集。自 1948 年政府开始跟踪该系列以来，10 月份的失业率首次未发布。</p><p>“对关税的持续不确定性一直存在，” 安联贸易北美的高级经济学家 Dan North 表示。“我们也面临着劳动力供应的下降，因为外籍劳动力正在迅速减少。”</p><p>政府将在发布 12 月份就业报告时，公布过去五年的季节性调整家庭调查的年度修订。失业率是根据家庭调查计算的。通常与 1 月份就业报告一起纳入的年度人口控制调整将被推迟。</p><p>尽管路透社对经济学家的调查中，失业率的中位数预测是 12 月份降至 4.5%，但一些人认为失业率可能上升至 4.7%，他们认为这将为本月降息打开大门。他们警告不要将任何好于预期的 12 月份非农就业数据视为劳动力市场改善的迹象，指出年末数据调整的困难。</p><p>“12 月份 4.7% 的失业率不仅将确认 11 月份相对没有与停摆相关的测量问题，而且表明自美联储 12 月份会议以来，劳动力市场的下行风险进一步增加，” 花旗集团经济学家 Veronica Clark 表示。美国中央银行在 12 月份将基准利率下调了四分之一个百分点至 3.50%-3.75% 的区间，但官员们表示，他们可能会暂停进一步降低借贷成本，以更好地了解经济的方向。</p><p>上个月的就业增长可能仍然较窄，集中在医疗保健和社会援助部门。由于关税和人工智能等因素阻止公司招聘更多员工，经济学家越来越将劳动力市场的挑战视为结构性而非周期性。</p><p>“降低利率可能在边际上有助于提振经济，但不太可能促使因关税相关的不确定性而暂时搁置招聘决策的公司增加员工，” 桑坦德美国资本市场的首席经济学家 Stephen Stanley 表示。“美联储显然无力应对与人工智能相关的担忧。”</p>

<p>( )</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>( )</p>
</div><p>Nonfarm payrolls are forecast increasing 60,000 in December</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非农就业人数预计在 12 月份增加 60,000</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate is expected to have eased to 4.5% from 4.6%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率预计将从 4.6% 降至 4.5%</p>
</div><p>Average hourly earnings are projected to have risen 3.6% from a year ago</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均时薪预计较去年上涨 3.6%</p>
</div><p>By Lucia Mutikani</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely slowed in December amid business caution about hiring because of import tariffs and rising artificial intelligence investment, though an anticipated easing in the unemployment rate to 4.5% could support expectations the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this month. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show the labor market remained stuck in what economists and policymakers have called a “no hire, no fire” mode. It would also confirm the economy was in a jobless expansion. Economic growth and worker productivity surged in the third quarter, in part attributed to the AI spending boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿，1 月 9 日（路透社）——由于企业对招聘的谨慎态度，受进口关税和人工智能投资上升的影响，美国的就业增长在 12 月份可能放缓，尽管预计失业率将降至 4.5%，这可能支持美联储本月维持利率不变的预期。劳工部备受关注的就业报告预计将在周五发布，显示劳动力市场仍然处于经济学家和政策制定者所称的 “无招聘、无解雇” 模式。这也将确认经济处于无就业扩张状态。经济增长和劳动生产率在第三季度激增，部分归因于人工智能支出的繁荣。</p>
</div><p>“It’s not so much weak demand because the economy seems to be doing not bad, but businesses are very cautious about taking on new workers,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “That’s possibly related to the desire to keep costs under control, perhaps in the face of tariffs, but also because many businesses believe there will be some productivity payoff from AI-driven automation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这并不是需求疲软，因为经济似乎表现不错，但企业在招聘新员工方面非常谨慎，” BMO 资本市场的高级经济学家 Sal Guatieri 表示。“这可能与希望控制成本有关，或许是面对关税的压力，但也因为许多企业相信，人工智能驱动的自动化将带来一些生产力的回报。”</p>
</div><p>Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 60,000 jobs last month after rebounding by 64,000 in November, a Reuters survey of economists estimated. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, the largest decrease in nearly five years, mostly federal government employees who took deferred buyouts. They received their last paycheck at the end of September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非农就业人数在上个月可能增加了 60,000 个职位，预计在 11 月份反弹了 64,000 个职位，路透社对经济学家的调查估计。经济在 10 月份失去了 105,000 个职位，这是近五年来的最大降幅，主要是联邦政府员工因推迟离职而造成的。他们在 9 月底收到了最后一笔工资。</p>
</div><p>Economists estimate that between 50,000 and 120,000 jobs need to be created each month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家估计，每月需要创造 50,000 到 120,000 个职位，以跟上适龄劳动人口的增长。</p>
</div><p>The labor market lost considerable momentum last year, with well-below one million jobs estimated to have been added. Roughly 2 million jobs were created in 2024, though this number could be revised lower when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its payrolls benchmark revision next month with the January employment report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，劳动力市场失去了相当大的动力，估计新增职位不到一百万。2024 年大约创造了 200 万个职位，但当劳工统计局下个月发布 1 月份就业报告时，这一数字可能会被下调。</p>
</div><p>The BLS has estimated about 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously reported. The overcounting has been blamed on the birth-death model, which is used by the BLS to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳工统计局估计，在截至 3 月份的 12 个月中，创造的职位比之前报告的少约 911,000 个。过度统计被归咎于出生 - 死亡模型，该模型用于估计因公司在某个月开业或关闭而增加或减少的职位数量。</p>
</div><p>Last month, the BLS said it would, starting in January, change the birth-death model by incorporating current sample information each month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月，劳工统计局表示，从 1 月份开始，将通过每月纳入当前样本信息来改变出生 - 死亡模型。</p>
</div><h3>JOB GROWTH SLOWED SHARPLY LAST YEAR</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>去年就业增长急剧放缓</h3>
</div><p>The sharp moderation in job growth last year was largely blamed on President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and immigration policies, which economists and policymakers said reduced both demand for and supply of workers. Some economists say low supply has prevented a sharp rise in the unemployment rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年就业增长的急剧放缓主要归因于唐纳德·特朗普总统的激进贸易和移民政策，经济学家和政策制定者表示，这减少了对工人需求和供应。一些经济学家表示，低供应阻止了失业率的急剧上升。</p>
</div><p>The jobless rate increased to a more than four-year high of 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September, partially distorted by the 43-day federal government shutdown, which also prevented the collection of household data for October. The unemployment rate for October was not published for the first time since the government started tracking the series in 1948.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率在 11 月份从 9 月份的 4.4% 上升至超过四年的高点 4.6%，部分受到 43 天联邦政府停摆的扭曲影响，这也阻止了 10 月份家庭数据的收集。自 1948 年政府开始跟踪该系列以来，10 月份的失业率首次未发布。</p>
</div><p>“There has been continuous uncertainty over tariffs,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “We also have a falling supply of labor since the foreign-born labor is shrinking fairly rapidly.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对关税的持续不确定性一直存在，” 安联贸易北美的高级经济学家 Dan North 表示。“我们也面临着劳动力供应的下降，因为外籍劳动力正在迅速减少。”</p>
</div><p>The government will together with the December employment report publish annual revisions to the seasonally adjusted household survey for the past five years. The unemployment rate is calculated from the household survey. The annual population control adjustments, normally incorporated with the January employment report, will be delayed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府将在发布 12 月份就业报告时，公布过去五年的季节性调整家庭调查的年度修订。失业率是根据家庭调查计算的。通常与 1 月份就业报告一起纳入的年度人口控制调整将被推迟。</p>
</div><p>While the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists was for the jobless rate to have eased to 4.5% in December, some saw the rate ticking higher to 4.7%, which they argued would open the door to a rate cut this month. They cautioned against viewing any better-than-expected December payrolls print as a sign of labor market improvement, citing difficulties adjusting the data around year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管路透社对经济学家的调查中，失业率的中位数预测是 12 月份降至 4.5%，但一些人认为失业率可能上升至 4.7%，他们认为这将为本月降息打开大门。他们警告不要将任何好于预期的 12 月份非农就业数据视为劳动力市场改善的迹象，指出年末数据调整的困难。</p>
</div><p>“A 4.7% unemployment rate in December would not only confirm that November was relatively free of shutdown-related measurement issues, but that downside risks to the labor market have increased even more since the Fed’s December meeting,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. The U.S. central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.50%-3.75% range in December, but officials indicated they were likely to pause further reductions in borrowing costs for now to get a better sense of the economy’s direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“12 月份 4.7% 的失业率不仅将确认 11 月份相对没有与停摆相关的测量问题，而且表明自美联储 12 月份会议以来，劳动力市场的下行风险进一步增加，” 花旗集团经济学家 Veronica Clark 表示。美国中央银行在 12 月份将基准利率下调了四分之一个百分点至 3.50%-3.75% 的区间，但官员们表示，他们可能会暂停进一步降低借贷成本，以更好地了解经济的方向。</p>
</div><p>Job growth last month likely remained narrow, concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors. Given that factors like tariffs and AI were preventing companies from hiring more workers, economists are increasingly viewing the labor market’s challenges as more structural than cyclical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月的就业增长可能仍然较窄，集中在医疗保健和社会援助部门。由于关税和人工智能等因素阻止公司招聘更多员工，经济学家越来越将劳动力市场的挑战视为结构性而非周期性。</p>
</div><p>“Lowering interest rates may help to buoy the economy at the margin, but it is unlikely to push companies that are on temporary hold as it relates to hiring decisions due to tariff-related uncertainty to add workers,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. “The Fed is certainly powerless to counteract the concerns related to AI.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“降低利率可能在边际上有助于提振经济，但不太可能促使因关税相关的不确定性而暂时搁置招聘决策的公司增加员工，” 桑坦德美国资本市场的首席经济学家 Stephen Stanley 表示。“美联储显然无力应对与人工智能相关的担忧。”</p>
</div>

Wall Street holds its breath for the December non-farm payroll report

- 预计非农就业人数在十二月增加 60,000，失业率降至 4.5%。
- 企业因关税和人工智能投资谨慎，招聘增长缓慢。
- 劳动力市场面临结构性挑战，企业招聘决策受不确定性影响。

华尔街屏息以待 12 月非农就业报告，失业率可能有所下降，就业增长预计放缓