<p>2026 年 1 月 5 日，中国山东省烟台市的房地产项目。</p>
<p>Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images</p>
<p>北京——中国政策制定者可能终于开始重视应对日益严重的房地产低迷，提升了人们对今年晚些时候可能出台更强有力支持措施的期望。</p>
<p>中共中央的官方期刊《求是》在 2026 年 1 月 1 日发表了一篇文章，呼吁采取 “更有力和更精准的措施” 来稳定房地产市场预期。</p>
<p>自那时以来，包含万科和世联行等开发商的恒生中国 A 股房地产指数在年初上涨了超过 6%，反映出投资者的乐观情绪日益增强。</p>
<p>《求是》的评论因其广泛性而引人注目，野村证券首席中国经济学家陆挺表示。</p>
<p>陆挺在本周早些时候的一份报告中表示：“这是自 2021 年中期该行业崩溃以来，《求是》上发布的对中国房地产市场最全面的评估。其重要性不容忽视。”</p>
<p>公众的中国官方评论，如《求是》文章，受到密切关注，因为它通常预示着内部政策辩论和官方思维的潜在转变，通常在决策宣布之前。</p>
<p>这篇文章出现在中国每年 3 月的全国人大会议之前，届时最高领导人将聚集在一起设定未来一年的政策目标。今年，会议还将发布下一五年发展计划的完整细节。</p>
<p>陆挺表示：“北京不能让其房地产行业无限期下滑，需要采取更果断的行动来真正稳定房地产行业和整体经济。”</p>
<p>他表示：“考虑到日益加剧的贸易紧张局势和出口行业可能不可持续的强劲表现，北京最终可能被迫大幅加强政策措施。”</p>
<p>尽管 2024 年 9 月最高领导人明确呼吁停止该行业的衰退，但中国的房地产低迷仍在持续。根据中国房地产信息公司本周的一份报告，自北京开始打击开发商对债务的过度依赖以来，新房销售几乎减半，2025 年的销售面积降至 2009 年水平。</p>
<p>迄今为止出台的措施主要集中在放宽一些原本旨在遏制投机的购房者限制。</p>
<p>《求是》文章呼吁房地产政策 “一次性实施”，而不是 “零散的做法”。</p>
<p>中国建设银行国际首席经济学家赵峥同意，政策确实需要更加积极，而对大城市的有针对性的支持可以在不产生过多成本的情况下发挥重要作用。</p>
<p>他补充说，具体细节可能只会在 3 月的全国人大会议或后续的高层城市发展会议上公布。</p>
<h2>拒绝当前对房地产的看法</h2>
<p>虽然官方语言常常将房地产低迷描述为 “调整期”，但《求是》文章直接呼吁紧迫性，称政策制定者必须 “尽可能缩短调整期”，根据 CNBC 对中文评论的翻译。</p>
<p>此外，《求是》反对北京的一种观点，即房地产对中国经济的重要性已不再，并警告政策制定者需要为仍在高债务水平下挣扎的房地产公司的可能破产做好准备。</p>
<p>整个行业的财务压力依然明显。</p>
<p>曾经是中国最大的房地产公司之一的万科，面临偿还债务的困难，导致标准普尔全球评级下调了该开发商的债务评级。最近几周，万科在一笔原定于 2025 年 12 月 15 日到期的 20 亿元人民币（约合 2.83 亿美元）的境内债券上险些违约，随后获得了延期。</p>
<p>根据 Wind 信息获取的官方数据，作为更广泛的压力迹象，中国房地产开发商的未偿贷款余额在第三季度首次同比下降，时隔十多年。</p>
<p>根据《求是》文章，预计政府将实施更多创新和有针对性的措施，汇丰银行亚洲房地产及香港股票研究负责人 Michelle Kwok 在周四的一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>报告称：“最具影响力的政策可能是那些显著减轻购房者财务负担的政策。” 她表示：“在我们看来，更加关注消化过剩库存将是解决瓶颈的关键一步。”</p>
<p>中国开发商长期以来在房屋完工前就出售公寓，导致购房者在未完成的房屋上背负抵押贷款。但由于缺乏新销售的资金或借款能力，开发商也难以完成建设。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>考虑到日益加剧的贸易紧张局势和出口行业可能不可持续的强劲表现，北京最终可能被迫大幅加强政策措施。</p>
<p>陆挺</p>
<p>野村证券首席中国经济学家</p>
</blockquote>
<p>目前，麦格理首席中国经济学家 Larry Hu 预测，未来一年房屋建设完工将下降 12%，而去年下降了 17%。他还预计今年新房销售将再次下降，销售面积将下降 7%。</p>
<p>胡表示，北京不太可能在出口下降之前增加太多支持，可能 “由于 [人工智能泡沫或美联储收紧政策]”，他在本周的一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>他说：“如果是这样，北京将不得不依赖国内刺激来实现其增长目标。” 他指出，“最可能的选择” 将是支持住房。</p>
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<p>野村的陆挺警告说，《求是》文章并不意味着政策制定者会对每一点采取行动。他指出，作者是住房部下属研究中心的副主任，“这表明这些观点可能尚未得到高层的完全认可。”</p>
<p>相比之下，卢表示，一篇在七月发表的《求是》文章暗示了北京计划抵制过度竞争，使用了 “伪签名”，这表明该评论得到了领导层的充分认可。</p>
<p>这一差异表明，在房地产支持方面建立高层共识可能需要时间，特别是因为北京可能会继续优先考虑与美国的科技竞争。</p>

<p>中国政策制定者正在重新评估对疲软房地产行业的应对措施，正如最近《求是》杂志中的一篇文章所指出的。该文章呼吁在三月份的全国人大会议之前采取更强有力的措施来稳定市场。投资者的乐观情绪有所上升，反映在恒生中国 A 股房地产指数上涨了 6%。专家建议需要采取更果断的行动来应对持续的下滑，重点是减轻购房者的财务负担以及解决开发商的高债务问题</p>

<p>Real Estate Projects in Yantai, Shandong, China on January 5, 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 1 月 5 日，中国山东省烟台市的房地产项目。</p>
</div><p>Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images</p>
</div><p>BEIJING — Chinese policymakers may be finally warming to the idea of tackling the country's worsening real estate slump, raising expectations that stronger support measures could be coming later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京——中国政策制定者可能终于开始重视应对日益严重的房地产低迷，提升了人们对今年晚些时候可能出台更强有力支持措施的期望。</p>
</div><p>The Communist Party's official journal Qiushi, which means &#34;seeking truth,&#34; kicked off 2026 with a Jan. 1 article calling for &#34;more powerful and precise measures&#34; to stabilize property market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中共中央的官方期刊《求是》在 2026 年 1 月 1 日发表了一篇文章，呼吁采取 “更有力和更精准的措施” 来稳定房地产市场预期。</p>
</div><p>Since then, the Hang Seng China A Properties Index, which includes developers Vanke and Seazen, has climbed more than 6% to start the year, reflecting growing investor optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，包含万科和世联行等开发商的恒生中国 A 股房地产指数在年初上涨了超过 6%，反映出投资者的乐观情绪日益增强。</p>
</div><p>The Qiushi commentary was notable for its scope, said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《求是》的评论因其广泛性而引人注目，野村证券首席中国经济学家陆挺表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is the most comprehensive assessment of China's property markets published in <em>Qiushi</em> since the sector's collapse in mid-2021,&#34; Ting said in a report earlier this week. &#34;Its significance should not be overlooked.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陆挺在本周早些时候的一份报告中表示：“这是自 2021 年中期该行业崩溃以来，《求是》上发布的对中国房地产市场最全面的评估。其重要性不容忽视。”</p>
</div><p>Public Chinese official commentary, such as Qiushi articles, is closely watched because it often signals internal policy debates and potential shifts in official thinking before decisions are announced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公众的中国官方评论，如《求是》文章，受到密切关注，因为它通常预示着内部政策辩论和官方思维的潜在转变，通常在决策宣布之前。</p>
</div><p>The article appeared ahead of China's annual parliamentary meeting in March, when top leaders gather to set policy goals for the year ahead. This year, the meeting will also release full details on its next five-year development plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章出现在中国每年 3 月的全国人大会议之前，届时最高领导人将聚集在一起设定未来一年的政策目标。今年，会议还将发布下一五年发展计划的完整细节。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Beijing cannot afford to let its property sector slide indefinitely, and much more decisive action is needed to truly stabilize the property sector and the overall economy,&#34; Lu said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陆挺表示：“北京不能让其房地产行业无限期下滑，需要采取更果断的行动来真正稳定房地产行业和整体经济。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;Given rising trade tensions and the likely unsustainable strength in the export sector, Beijing might eventually be compelled to ramp up its policy measures significantly.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示：“考虑到日益加剧的贸易紧张局势和出口行业可能不可持续的强劲表现，北京最终可能被迫大幅加强政策措施。”</p>
</div><p>China's property downturn has dragged on despite a clear call from top leaders in Sept. 2024 to halt the sector's decline. New home sales have nearly halved since Beijing started cracking down on developers' heavy reliance on debt for growth, with floor space sold in 2025 falling to levels seen back in 2009, according to a report this week by the China Real Estate Information Corp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 2024 年 9 月最高领导人明确呼吁停止该行业的衰退，但中国的房地产低迷仍在持续。根据中国房地产信息公司本周的一份报告，自北京开始打击开发商对债务的过度依赖以来，新房销售几乎减半，2025 年的销售面积降至 2009 年水平。</p>
</div><p>Measures introduced so far have focused on easing some restrictions on buyers, originally intended to stem speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迄今为止出台的措施主要集中在放宽一些原本旨在遏制投机的购房者限制。</p>
</div><p>The Qiushi article called for property policies to be implemented &#34;in one go,&#34; rather than a &#34;piecemeal approach.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《求是》文章呼吁房地产政策 “一次性实施”，而不是 “零散的做法”。</p>
</div><p>Cliff Zhao, chief economist at China Construction Bank International, agreed. Policy does need to be more assertive, while targeted support for larger cities could go a long way without too much cost, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国建设银行国际首席经济学家赵峥同意，政策确实需要更加积极，而对大城市的有针对性的支持可以在不产生过多成本的情况下发挥重要作用。</p>
</div><p>He added that details are likely to only emerge at the parliamentary meeting in March or at later high-level meetings focused on urban development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，具体细节可能只会在 3 月的全国人大会议或后续的高层城市发展会议上公布。</p>
</div><h2>Rejecting a current view on real estate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>拒绝当前对房地产的看法</h2>
</div><p>While official language has often framed the real estate slump as merely a &#34;period of adjustment,&#34; the Qiushi article made a direct call for urgency, saying policymakers must &#34;shorten the adjustment period as much as possible,&#34; according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese commentary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然官方语言常常将房地产低迷描述为 “调整期”，但《求是》文章直接呼吁紧迫性，称政策制定者必须 “尽可能缩短调整期”，根据 CNBC 对中文评论的翻译。</p>
</div><p>In addition, Qiushi argued against a view in Beijing that real estate is no longer that important to China's economy, and warned that policymakers need to prepare for possible bankruptcies of real estate companies still struggling with high debt levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，《求是》反对北京的一种观点，即房地产对中国经济的重要性已不再，并警告政策制定者需要为仍在高债务水平下挣扎的房地产公司的可能破产做好准备。</p>
</div><p>Financial stress across the sector remains evident.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整个行业的财务压力依然明显。</p>
</div><p>Vanke, once one of China's largest real estate companies, has struggled to meet its debt obligations, prompting S&amp;P Global Ratings to downgrade the developer's debt. In recent weeks, Vanke narrowly avoided default on a 2 billion yuan ($283 million) onshore bond initially due Dec. 15, 2025, before getting an extension.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾经是中国最大的房地产公司之一的万科，面临偿还债务的困难，导致标准普尔全球评级下调了该开发商的债务评级。最近几周，万科在一笔原定于 2025 年 12 月 15 日到期的 20 亿元人民币（约合 2.83 亿美元）的境内债券上险些违约，随后获得了延期。</p>
</div><p>In a broader sign of strain, Chinese real estate developers' outstanding loan balance fell in the third quarter from a year ago for the first time in more than a decade, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Wind 信息获取的官方数据，作为更广泛的压力迹象，中国房地产开发商的未偿贷款余额在第三季度首次同比下降，时隔十多年。</p>
</div><p>Based on the Qiushi article, the government is expected to implement more innovative and targeted measures, Michelle Kwok, HSBC's head of Asia real estate and Hong Kong equity research, wrote in a report Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据《求是》文章，预计政府将实施更多创新和有针对性的措施，汇丰银行亚洲房地产及香港股票研究负责人 Michelle Kwok 在周四的一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The most impactful policies will likely be those that meaningfully reduce the financial burden on home buyers,&#34; the report said. &#34;In our view, more focus on acquiring excess inventory will be a key step to resolving bottlenecks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告称：“最具影响力的政策可能是那些显著减轻购房者财务负担的政策。” 她表示：“在我们看来，更加关注消化过剩库存将是解决瓶颈的关键一步。”</p>
</div><p>Chinese developers have long sold apartments before completion, leaving buyers with mortgages on unfinished homes. But without funds from new sales or the ability to borrow, developers have also struggled to complete construction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国开发商长期以来在房屋完工前就出售公寓，导致购房者在未完成的房屋上背负抵押贷款。但由于缺乏新销售的资金或借款能力，开发商也难以完成建设。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Given rising trade tensions and the likely unsustainable strength in the export sector, Beijing might eventually be compelled to ramp up its policy measures significantly.</p>
<p>Ting Lu</p>
<p>Nomura, chief China economist</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>考虑到日益加剧的贸易紧张局势和出口行业可能不可持续的强劲表现，北京最终可能被迫大幅加强政策措施。</p>
<p>陆挺</p>
<p>野村证券首席中国经济学家</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>For now, Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, predicts home construction completions will fall by 12% in the year ahead, after a 17% drop last year. He also expects new home sales to fall again this year, down by 7% in terms of floor space sold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，麦格理首席中国经济学家 Larry Hu 预测，未来一年房屋建设完工将下降 12%，而去年下降了 17%。他还预计今年新房销售将再次下降，销售面积将下降 7%。</p>
</div><p>Hu said Beijing is unlikely to add much support until exports decline, possibly &#34;due to [an] AI bust or Fed tightening,&#34; he said in a report this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>胡表示，北京不太可能在出口下降之前增加太多支持，可能 “由于 [人工智能泡沫或美联储收紧政策]”，他在本周的一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If so, Beijing would have to rely on domestic stimulus to achieve its growth target,&#34; he said, noting the &#34;most likely option&#34; would be to support housing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说：“如果是这样，北京将不得不依赖国内刺激来实现其增长目标。” 他指出，“最可能的选择” 将是支持住房。</p>
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</div><p>Nomura's Lu cautioned that the Qiushi article doesn't mean policymakers will act on every point. He noted that the author is a deputy director of a research center under the housing ministry, &#34;which suggests these views may not yet be fully endorsed at the top level.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村的陆挺警告说，《求是》文章并不意味着政策制定者会对每一点采取行动。他指出，作者是住房部下属研究中心的副主任，“这表明这些观点可能尚未得到高层的完全认可。”</p>
</div><p>By contrast, Lu said, a Qiushi article published in July, which signaled Beijing's plans to push back against excessive competition, used &#34;a pseudo-signature which suggests the commentary was fully endorsed by the leadership.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，卢表示，一篇在七月发表的《求是》文章暗示了北京计划抵制过度竞争，使用了 “伪签名”，这表明该评论得到了领导层的充分认可。</p>
</div><p>That difference suggests that building high-level consensus on property support could take time, particularly as Beijing may continue to prioritize tech competition with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一差异表明，在房地产支持方面建立高层共识可能需要时间，特别是因为北京可能会继续优先考虑与美国的科技竞争。</p>
</div>

在关键的三月会议前，对中国房地产支持的期望上升