<p>在 2000 年代初，优质烈酒的市场发生了剧变。随着新财富、新买家的出现以及全球文化的转变，对陈年威士忌和优质葡萄酒的需求激增。每个人都能看到这一变化。但供应无法响应，因为供应在几年前就已经 “决定”，当时酒桶已经装满。再多的钱也无法加快日历的进程。结果是剧烈的。价格不仅上涨；它们与现实脱节。</p>
<p>今天，我们正走入同样的陷阱。但这一次，涉及的不是奢侈消费品，而是现代经济的基本基石：硅。</p>
<p>我们正在目睹一场 “硅震”。它正在发生——其规模让威士忌危机显得微不足道。与 1970 年代的石油危机不同，后者是由供应禁运驱动的，这场危机是由需求的猛烈、不可阻挡的爆炸驱动的。世界突然意识到，它需要以超越物理学的速度将沙子转化为 “智能”。</p>
<p>先进的硅或半导体是在科学的前沿制造的，那里晶体管的尺寸已经小于病毒。全球只有大约五家公司能够制造如此先进的芯片——无论是逻辑芯片还是存储芯片。</p>
<p>对计算的需求，特别是处理人工智能（AI）令牌所需的高性能硅的需求，并没有增加 50% 或 100%。根据你如何衡量 AI 思维的基本单位，过去 18 个月的需求激增了 40 到 100 倍。即使你削减头条数字并使用保守的混合，增长范围仍在 40 到 60 倍之间。</p>
<p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/WsXmR1FtC3gbEiz5iA2ykMqWHuvdwk3o.jpg?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1450" height="1002" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/WsXmR1FtC3gbEiz5iA2ykMqWHuvdwk3o.jpg"/></p>
<p>供应链无法承受。它正在崩溃。建立一个新的制造厂需要三到五年。扩展高带宽内存生产需要两到三年。增加先进封装能力需要 18 到 24 个月。在耗尽备用产能并将库存降至危机水平后，世界已经达到瓶颈不断增加的地步。</p>
<p>市场错误估计这一冲击严重性的主要原因是对消耗硅的需求的根本误解。在 2023 年和 2024 年的大部分时间里，AI 需求的心理模型是 “人类速度” 的互动：用户在聊天机器人中输入提示，聊天机器人回复，交易结束。那个时代已经结束。在 2025 年末，工作负载的性质发生了根本性的变化。</p>
<p>我们从聊天机器人转向了智能体，从模式匹配转向推理。新的主导工作负载是智能体 AI。这些系统不等待提示。它们在连续的自主循环中运行，同时进行规划、执行、检查和纠正。来自人类的单个指令可以触发数千个内部推理步骤的级联，这些步骤 24 小时运行，对用户不可见，但对硬件却是巨大的负担。</p>
<p>与此同时，AI 的集成将数十亿个琐碎的互动转变为重负载推理任务。当谷歌将其搜索 AI 概述切换到增强推理模型时，它对每天超过 40 亿个查询应用了计算密集型推理。单个决策将低成本的关键词查找转变为高成本的生成任务。将这一情况扩展到微软的 Copilot、Meta 的 WhatsApp 和腾讯的微信，整体需求变得天文数字。</p>
<p>一些观察者可能会将硅震视为 AI 泡沫的泡沫过剩。这种批评误解了需求的本质。这一短缺并不是由廉价融资的空数据中心的投机性扩建造成的。它是来自真实用户在真实应用中生成真实令牌的操作推理负载。AI 并不是在资金紧张时会被放弃的产品；它正在成为基础设施。</p>
<p>硅震最隐蔽的部分是 “级联效应”。由于 AI 需求实际上是无限的且对价格无弹性，半导体行业已经合理化了其整个生产线以服务于 AI。三星和 SK 海力士正在积极将生产线从标准消费内存转向为 AI 加速器制造高带宽内存。</p>
<p>这就是 “吸血鬼效应”：AI 正在吸走其他电子市场的生命线。结果是用于笔记本电脑、手机和汽车的 “无聊” 芯片短缺。标准随机存取内存的价格飙升，因为晶圆被用于 AI。行业内存库存水平从 2024 年底的约 15 周下降到 2025 年 10 月的仅两到四周。没有剩余的缓冲。</p>
<p>在过去的八周里，低语变成了尖叫。我们统计了近 20 家主要公司的高管，从芯片制造商如台积电和美光到消费巨头如戴尔和小米，所有人都表达了同样的警报。他们不再隐藏问题；他们正在为此定价。</p>
<p>戴尔首席运营官杰夫·克拉克警告称，“（我们）从未见过内存芯片成本如此迅速上涨”，并指出需求远远超过供应。美光首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉表示，他的公司只能满足主要客户 “50% 到三分之二” 的需求。</p>
<p>在代工层面，情况更加严峻。台积电首席执行官魏哲家表示，产能 “短缺三倍” 于需求。</p>
<p>或许最具说明性的是 SK 海力士董事长崔泰源的评论。他承认，收到的内存请求如此之多，以至于他担心如何处理这些请求，并警告客户可能面临 “根本无法开展业务” 的情况。</p>
<p>一位 Winbond 高管指出，客户现在正在乞求六年的供应协议，这在现代供应链中是罕见的恐慌程度。</p>
<p>我们正面临一场供应链危机，这场危机看起来更像是地缘政治资源冲击，而不是技术周期。最近几个季度，人们听到了很多关于 “电力墙” 的讨论——即人工智能中心的电力短缺。这在某种程度上是可以通过人类的智慧或监管变革来解决的问题。然而，我们无法想到任何体面的解决方案来应对全球所面临的硅片冲击。</p>
<p>解决这个问题所需的工厂尚未建成。如果未来几年的需求增长保持在同一轨迹上，当前的规划远远不够。局势已经确定，短缺已经到来。就像过去的石油冲击一样，痛苦即将从数据中心蔓延到你的笔记本电脑、手机和钱包。</p>
<p>硅片可能是或可能不是新的石油，但硅片冲击有潜力成为 2026 年的主导宏观、政治和市场主题。</p>
<p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/gMetuTPTiPYScX7EGhQKUsKMvUpHNBYN.jpg?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="860" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/gMetuTPTiPYScX7EGhQKUsKMvUpHNBYN.jpg"/></p>
<h2><strong>硅片冲击对亚洲和新加坡的影响</strong></h2>
<p>我们才刚刚开始。虽然硅片冲击迄今为止表现为电子产品价格上涨以及人工智能和尖端科技企业争抢硅片产能，但这种情况可能在未来几个月迅速蔓延到所有科技产品和供应链。这将对亚洲关键硬件的可用性和消费者通胀产生影响。</p>
<p>对于像新加坡这样一个以科技为主导的社会，监测这种脆弱性比恐慌更为重要。服务器和先进组件的产能可能在几个季度内受到限制。现在可能不宜过于急躁，但保持持续关注是重要的。</p>
<p>话虽如此，仍有一线希望：随着定价权回归电子供应链，新加坡深度融入全球硬件网络，使其在潮流转变时能够捕捉价值。该国可能成为这些领域投资回流的最大受益者之一。</p>
<p>作者是 GenInnov 的首席执行官，</p>
<p>这是对首次发布于 https://www.geninnov.ai/blog/ 的文章的改编。</p>

台积电

<p>随着人工智能需求压倒全球芯片供应，迫在眉睫的 “硅震荡” 可能在亚洲的科技供应链中引发连锁反应——这不仅带来了通胀风险，也为新加坡等硬件中心带来了潜在的机遇</p>

<p>IN THE early 2000s, the world of fine spirits broke. Demand for aged whiskey and fine wine exploded with new wealth, new buyers and a global culture shift. Everyone could see it happening. But supply could not respond because supply had been “decided” years earlier when the barrels were filled. No amount of money could speed up a calendar. The result was violent. Prices did not just rise; they decoupled from reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2000 年代初，优质烈酒的市场发生了剧变。随着新财富、新买家的出现以及全球文化的转变，对陈年威士忌和优质葡萄酒的需求激增。每个人都能看到这一变化。但供应无法响应，因为供应在几年前就已经 “决定”，当时酒桶已经装满。再多的钱也无法加快日历的进程。结果是剧烈的。价格不仅上涨；它们与现实脱节。</p>
</div><p>Today, we are walking into the exact same trap. But this time, it is not about luxury consumables. It is about the fundamental substrate of the modern economy: silicon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我们正走入同样的陷阱。但这一次，涉及的不是奢侈消费品，而是现代经济的基本基石：硅。</p>
</div><p>We are witnessing a “silicon shock”. It is happening now – at a scale that makes the whiskey crisis look like a rounding error. Unlike the 1970s oil shocks, which were driven by supply embargoes, this crisis is driven by a ferocious, unyielding explosion in demand. The world has suddenly realised it needs to convert sand into “intelligence” at a rate that defies physics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们正在目睹一场 “硅震”。它正在发生——其规模让威士忌危机显得微不足道。与 1970 年代的石油危机不同，后者是由供应禁运驱动的，这场危机是由需求的猛烈、不可阻挡的爆炸驱动的。世界突然意识到，它需要以超越物理学的速度将沙子转化为 “智能”。</p>
</div><p>Advanced silicon, or semiconductors, are manufactured at the frontier of science, where transistors are now smaller than a virus. Globally, only about five companies can make chips – whether logic or memory – so advanced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>先进的硅或半导体是在科学的前沿制造的，那里晶体管的尺寸已经小于病毒。全球只有大约五家公司能够制造如此先进的芯片——无论是逻辑芯片还是存储芯片。</p>
</div><p>The demand for compute, specifically the high-performance silicon required to process artificial intelligence (AI) tokens, has not increased by 50 per cent or 100 per cent. Depending on how you measure the fundamental unit of AI thought, demand has exploded by anywhere from 40 to 100 times in the last 18 months. Even if you cut the headline numbers and use a conservative blend, you still land in the range of 40 to 60 times growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对计算的需求，特别是处理人工智能（AI）令牌所需的高性能硅的需求，并没有增加 50% 或 100%。根据你如何衡量 AI 思维的基本单位，过去 18 个月的需求激增了 40 到 100 倍。即使你削减头条数字并使用保守的混合，增长范围仍在 40 到 60 倍之间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/WsXmR1FtC3gbEiz5iA2ykMqWHuvdwk3o.jpg?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/WsXmR1FtC3gbEiz5iA2ykMqWHuvdwk3o.jpg"/></p>
<p>The supply chain cannot hold. It is breaking. Building a new fabrication plant takes three to five years. Expanding high-bandwidth memory production takes two to three years. Adding advanced packaging capacity takes 18 to 24 months. After exhausting spare capacity and drawing down inventories to crisis levels, the world has reached a point where the bottlenecks are multiplying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应链无法承受。它正在崩溃。建立一个新的制造厂需要三到五年。扩展高带宽内存生产需要两到三年。增加先进封装能力需要 18 到 24 个月。在耗尽备用产能并将库存降至危机水平后，世界已经达到瓶颈不断增加的地步。</p>
</div><p>The primary reason the market has miscalculated the severity of this shock is a fundamental misunderstanding of what is consuming the silicon. For most of 2023 and 2024, the mental model for AI demand was “human-speed” interaction: a user types a prompt into a chatbot, the chatbot replies, and the transaction ends. That era is over. In late 2025, the nature of the workload shifted fundamentally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场错误估计这一冲击严重性的主要原因是对消耗硅的需求的根本误解。在 2023 年和 2024 年的大部分时间里，AI 需求的心理模型是 “人类速度” 的互动：用户在聊天机器人中输入提示，聊天机器人回复，交易结束。那个时代已经结束。在 2025 年末，工作负载的性质发生了根本性的变化。</p>
</div><p>We moved from chatbots to agents, and from pattern-matching to reasoning. The new dominant workload is agentic AI. These systems do not wait for a prompt. They run in continuous, autonomous loops while planning, executing, checking and correcting. A single instruction from a human can trigger a cascade of thousands of internal inference steps running 24 hours a day, invisible to the user but punishing to the hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们从聊天机器人转向了智能体，从模式匹配转向推理。新的主导工作负载是智能体 AI。这些系统不等待提示。它们在连续的自主循环中运行，同时进行规划、执行、检查和纠正。来自人类的单个指令可以触发数千个内部推理步骤的级联，这些步骤 24 小时运行，对用户不可见，但对硬件却是巨大的负担。</p>
</div><p>Simultaneously, the integration of AI into “default” surfaces has converted billions of trivial interactions into heavy inference tasks. When Google switched its Search AI Overviews to reasoning-enhanced models, it applied compute-intensive inference to more than four billion daily queries. A single decision converted low-cost keyword lookups into high-cost generative tasks. Multiply this across Microsoft’s Copilot, Meta’s WhatsApp and Tencent’s WeChat, and the aggregate demand becomes astronomical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，AI 的集成将数十亿个琐碎的互动转变为重负载推理任务。当谷歌将其搜索 AI 概述切换到增强推理模型时，它对每天超过 40 亿个查询应用了计算密集型推理。单个决策将低成本的关键词查找转变为高成本的生成任务。将这一情况扩展到微软的 Copilot、Meta 的 WhatsApp 和腾讯的微信，整体需求变得天文数字。</p>
</div><p>Some observers may dismiss the silicon shock as the frothy excess of an AI bubble. This critique misunderstands the nature of the demand. This shortage is not a speculative buildout of empty data centres financed cheaply. It is an operational inference load from real users generating real tokens in real applications. AI is not a product that will be abandoned when funding tightens; it is becoming infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些观察者可能会将硅震视为 AI 泡沫的泡沫过剩。这种批评误解了需求的本质。这一短缺并不是由廉价融资的空数据中心的投机性扩建造成的。它是来自真实用户在真实应用中生成真实令牌的操作推理负载。AI 并不是在资金紧张时会被放弃的产品；它正在成为基础设施。</p>
</div><p>The most insidious part of the silicon shock is the “cascade effect”. Because AI demand is effectively infinite and price-inelastic, the semiconductor industry has rationalised its entire production line to serve AI. Samsung and SK Hynix are actively converting production lines away from standard consumer memory to make High Bandwidth Memory for AI accelerators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>硅震最隐蔽的部分是 “级联效应”。由于 AI 需求实际上是无限的且对价格无弹性，半导体行业已经合理化了其整个生产线以服务于 AI。三星和 SK 海力士正在积极将生产线从标准消费内存转向为 AI 加速器制造高带宽内存。</p>
</div><p>And this is the “vampire effect”: AI is sucking the lifeblood out of the rest of the electronics market. The result is a shortage of the “boring” chips used in laptops, phones and cars. Prices for standard random access memory are skyrocketing because the wafers are being used for AI instead. Industry memory inventory levels fell from roughly 15 weeks in late 2024 to just two to four weeks by October 2025. There is no cushion remaining.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是 “吸血鬼效应”：AI 正在吸走其他电子市场的生命线。结果是用于笔记本电脑、手机和汽车的 “无聊” 芯片短缺。标准随机存取内存的价格飙升，因为晶圆被用于 AI。行业内存库存水平从 2024 年底的约 15 周下降到 2025 年 10 月的仅两到四周。没有剩余的缓冲。</p>
</div><p>In the last eight weeks alone, the whispers turned into screams. We counted executives from nearly 20 major firms, ranging from chipmakers such as TSMC and Micron to consumer giants including Dell and Xiaomi, all expressing the same alarm. They are no longer hiding the problem; they are pricing for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的八周里，低语变成了尖叫。我们统计了近 20 家主要公司的高管，从芯片制造商如台积电和美光到消费巨头如戴尔和小米，所有人都表达了同样的警报。他们不再隐藏问题；他们正在为此定价。</p>
</div><p>Jeff Clarke, chief operating officer of Dell, warned that it “(has) never seen memory chip costs rise this fast”, noting that demand is way ahead of supply. Sanjay Mehrotra, chief executive of Micron, stated that his company can only meet “50 per cent to two-thirds” of the demand from its main customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>戴尔首席运营官杰夫·克拉克警告称，“（我们）从未见过内存芯片成本如此迅速上涨”，并指出需求远远超过供应。美光首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉表示，他的公司只能满足主要客户 “50% 到三分之二” 的需求。</p>
</div><p>The situation is even more dire at the foundry level. CC Wei, CEO of TSMC, has stated that capacity is “three times short” of demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在代工层面，情况更加严峻。台积电首席执行官魏哲家表示，产能 “短缺三倍” 于需求。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps most telling is the comment from Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Hynix. He admitted that it is receiving so many requests for memory that it is worried about how it will be able to handle it, warning that clients could face a situation where they “can’t do business at all” without supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许最具说明性的是 SK 海力士董事长崔泰源的评论。他承认，收到的内存请求如此之多，以至于他担心如何处理这些请求，并警告客户可能面临 “根本无法开展业务” 的情况。</p>
</div><p>A Winbond executive noted that customers are now begging for six-year supply agreements, a level of panic rarely seen in modern supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位 Winbond 高管指出，客户现在正在乞求六年的供应协议，这在现代供应链中是罕见的恐慌程度。</p>
</div><p>We are staring down the barrel of a supply chain crisis that looks less like a tech cycle and more like a geopolitical resource shock. One has heard a lot about the “Power Wall” – power shortages for AI centres – in recent quarters. These are, to some degree, solvable problems with human ingenuity or regulatory changes. We cannot think of any half-decent solution for the silicon shock the world has entered into.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们正面临一场供应链危机，这场危机看起来更像是地缘政治资源冲击，而不是技术周期。最近几个季度，人们听到了很多关于 “电力墙” 的讨论——即人工智能中心的电力短缺。这在某种程度上是可以通过人类的智慧或监管变革来解决的问题。然而，我们无法想到任何体面的解决方案来应对全球所面临的硅片冲击。</p>
</div><p>The factories required to solve this problem have not yet been built. What is being planned for the coming years is not remotely sufficient if demand growth remains on the same trajectory. The die is cast. The shortage is here. Just like the oil shocks of the past, the pain is about to cascade from the data centre down to your laptop, your phone and your wallet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解决这个问题所需的工厂尚未建成。如果未来几年的需求增长保持在同一轨迹上，当前的规划远远不够。局势已经确定，短缺已经到来。就像过去的石油冲击一样，痛苦即将从数据中心蔓延到你的笔记本电脑、手机和钱包。</p>
</div><p>Silicon may or may not be the new oil, but the silicon shock has the potential to be a dominant macro, political and market theme of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>硅片可能是或可能不是新的石油，但硅片冲击有潜力成为 2026 年的主导宏观、政治和市场主题。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/gMetuTPTiPYScX7EGhQKUsKMvUpHNBYN.jpg?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/cms/2026/0/gMetuTPTiPYScX7EGhQKUsKMvUpHNBYN.jpg"/></p>
<h2><strong>What the Silicon shock means for Asia and Singapore</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>硅片冲击对亚洲和新加坡的影响</strong></h2>
</div><p>We are barely getting started. While the silicon shock has so far manifested as price rises in electronic gadgets and a scramble for silicon capacity among AI and cutting-edge tech players, this could escalate rapidly across all tech products and supply chains in the coming months. This carries consequences for the availability of critical hardware and consumer inflation across Asia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们才刚刚开始。虽然硅片冲击迄今为止表现为电子产品价格上涨以及人工智能和尖端科技企业争抢硅片产能，但这种情况可能在未来几个月迅速蔓延到所有科技产品和供应链。这将对亚洲关键硬件的可用性和消费者通胀产生影响。</p>
</div><p>For a tech-dominant society such as Singapore, monitoring this vulnerability matters more than panic. Server and advanced component capacity may become constrained within quarters. It might be prudent not to jump the gun too quickly for now, but keeping constant vigil on this is important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像新加坡这样一个以科技为主导的社会，监测这种脆弱性比恐慌更为重要。服务器和先进组件的产能可能在几个季度内受到限制。现在可能不宜过于急躁，但保持持续关注是重要的。</p>
</div><p>That said, there is a silver lining: as pricing power returns to the electronics supply chain, Singapore’s deep integration into global hardware networks positions it to capture value as the tide turns. The country could emerge as one of the biggest winners from returning investments in these segments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，仍有一线希望：随着定价权回归电子供应链，新加坡深度融入全球硬件网络，使其在潮流转变时能够捕捉价值。该国可能成为这些领域投资回流的最大受益者之一。</p>
</div><p>The writer is CEO at GenInnov，</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者是 GenInnov 的首席执行官，</p>
</div><p>This is an adaptation of an article first published on https://www.geninnov.ai/blog/</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是对首次发布于 https://www.geninnov.ai/blog/ 的文章的改编。</p>
</div>

The ‘silicon shock’: When AI demand broke the supply chain

- 全球半导体市场面临严重供需危机，需求激增 40 至 100 倍。  
- 仅有少数公司能生产高级芯片，产能无法满足市场。  
- 硅片短缺将影响电子产品和消费者通胀，尤其在亚洲影响深远。

‘硅震惊’: 当人工智能的需求打破了供应链