<p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<p>蓬勃发展的预测市场正面临真正的挑战。</p>
<p>在美国当地时间 1 月 9 日，<strong>田纳西州体育博彩委员会（SWC）对 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等预测市场平台发布了禁令，要求这些平台停止向该州居民提供体育预测合同，理由是这些公司在没有州政府许可的情况下从事非法赌博活动。</strong></p>
<p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<p>蓬勃发展的预测市场正面临真正的挑战。</p>
<p>在美国当地时间 1 月 9 日，<strong>田纳西州体育博彩委员会（SWC）对 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等预测市场平台发布了禁令，要求这些平台停止向该州居民提供体育预测合同，理由是这些公司在没有州政府许可的情况下从事非法赌博活动。</strong></p>
<p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="391" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<h2><strong>聚焦田纳西州，体育博彩意味着什么？</strong></h2>
<p>让我们把目光转向田纳西州，这一事件的中心州。在 2019 年，田纳西州通过了田纳西州体育博彩法，正式合法化体育博彩。虽然时任州长比尔·李对赌博持保留态度，但他允许该法案通过而没有否决。从 2021 年到 2022 年，田纳西州立法机构通过立法成立了一个专门的监管委员会，负责监督许可和监管。这个委员会，前身为体育博彩咨询委员会，后来更名为田纳西州体育博彩委员会（SWC），正是本文开头提到的对 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 发布禁令的委员会。目前，SWC 是田纳西州唯一的体育博彩监管机构，负责运营许可证、合规监督、规则制定和执行。州体育委员会（SWC）要求所有体育博彩提供商必须获得 SWC 的许可证才能在该州运营；到目前为止，已发放了 11 个许可证（见上文）。只有 21 岁及以上的居民才能使用这些服务，投注必须通过地理定位进行验证，以确保在该州内进行。关于税收，州政府对总投注额征收 1.85% 的税——之前是基于收入的税制，2023 年改为基于总投注的税制。体育博彩市场对田纳西州的税收收入贡献显著。根据体育书评（Sports Book Review）的统计数据（见下图，数据截至 2025 年 7 月），田纳西州的体育博彩市场在 2024 年产生了 52.68 亿美元的总投注收入，税收贡献达到 9716 万美元；在 2025 年的前七个月，总投注收入达到 24 亿美元，税收贡献达到 5640 万美元。</p>
<p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="703" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<p>但这个庞大且仍在增长的市场现在正逐渐被 Polymarkets 侵蚀。</p>
<h2>预测市场如何侵蚀旧世界？</h2>
<h2>预测市场如何侵蚀旧世界？</h2>
<h2>在 2025 年 12 月 3 日，Polymarket 宣布已获得 CFTC 的许可证，并将在近四年后重返美国市场。在此之前，Kalshi 和 Crypto.com 的预测市场平台 Truth Predict 已经获得 CFTC 批准，向美国用户开放。目前，体育博彩被明确归类为赌博服务，监管权属于各州。然而，像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场平台通常被视为提供 “事件合同” 交易服务的新实体。从资产性质上看，“事件合同” 被视为金融衍生品，属于 CFTC 的监管范围。这使得预测市场能够规避对博彩服务的严格监管——它们不需要州许可证、用户保护法规（如成瘾控制）或向州支付的高额博彩税；然而，它们仍然可以提供类似于传统博彩的体育博彩服务，客观上创造了一定程度的 “监管套利”。如果预测市场仍然只是小规模的试验场，那倒是另一回事，但现实是它们的增长速度甚至比已经非常惊人的体育博彩市场还要更为惊人——在 2025 年，预测市场的总交易量约为 400 亿美元，比 2024 年的 90 亿美元增长了约 400%。Dune 编制的数据仪表板（见下文）显示，体育相关的事件合同长期以来一直是预测市场中交易量最高的类别。资本市场已经感受到 Polymarket 对传统体育博彩服务日益增长的威胁。体育博彩市场的两大巨头 DraftKings 和 Flutter Entertainment 在过去一年分别录得 11.7% 和 16.1% 的下降。这与美国股市的牛市相吻合，标准普尔 500 指数在一年内上涨了 12.97%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 20.36%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 16.39%；此外，体育博彩市场继续保持八年的上升趋势。</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425754_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="474" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425754_image3.png"/></p>
<p><strong>无论是依赖体育博彩获取税收的田纳西州，还是有效控制体育博彩市场的资本力量，都不太可能同意像预测市场这样的新参与者的出现。</strong></p>
<h2>这种摩擦并不是个案。预测市场将如何反击？</h2>
<h2>事实上，田纳西州对预测市场的禁令并不是个例。马里兰州、俄亥俄州、伊利诺伊州、新泽西州、内华达州、蒙大拿州、密歇根州和康涅狄格州都曾因类似原因对预测市场进行打压。自从 Polymarket 去年十二月重新进入美国市场以来，Kalshi 面临的监管审查更加严格。作为回应，Kalshi 对内华达州、新泽西州和马里兰州提起诉讼，辩称其已遵守更高优先级的联邦法规，不再需要遵守州法规，但结果并不理想。内华达州的诉讼是第一个进行的。地方法院最初支持 Kalshi，但去年十一月改变了立场，裁定不利于 Kalshi。法官安德鲁·戈登认为，Kalshi 的体育赛事合同与体育博彩非常相似，因此属于内华达州博彩法规的管辖范围。Kalshi 已向美国第九巡回上诉法院提出上诉。在新泽西州，地方法院裁定支持 Kalshi，但该州的博彩监管机构已向美国第三巡回上诉法院提出上诉。在马里兰州，地方法院审理了博彩监管机构的案件。法官亚当·B 裁定 Kalshi... Kalshi 已向美国第四巡回上诉法院提出上诉，理由是未能证明 “国会有明确和明确的意图剥夺各州对赌博的监管权。” 律师事务所 Benesch 评论称，“随着全国辩论的持续，类似的分歧预计将在上诉法院层面出现，这将为最高法院在未来几年解决这一问题奠定基础……如果上诉法院恰好一致支持 Kalshi 的立场，其他预测市场可能会效仿，并在最高法院审理案件之前开始类似的运营；然而，如果上诉法院得出不同的结论，处于类似情况的公司可能会在采取行动之前等待更明确的法律信号。无论如何，Kalshi 的诉讼将为国家体育博彩和赌博行业创造一个具有直接和深远影响的先例。” 总之，预测市场是否应遵守州赌博法规仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。根本矛盾在于预测市场与体育博彩在产品和服务提供者方面的相似性，以及监管要求的差异。这是一场关于监管适应的拉锯战。在上诉法院甚至最高法院作出最终裁决之前，预测市场与体育博彩之间的灰色地带将长期存在，监管冲突将难以避免。在短期内，各州可能会通过执法和诉讼继续捍卫其监管权利和税基；而预测市场平台将试图利用联邦合规和创新叙事作为盾牌，以获得更大的生存空间。</h2>

FLTR

DKNG

<p>田纳西州体育博彩委员会已对预测市场平台如 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 发布禁令，理由是其进行非法赌博活动。这一举措是在田纳西州于 2019 年合法化体育博彩并成立体育博彩委员会作为监管机构之后进行的。虽然传统体育博彩受到严格监管，但预测市场被归类为金融衍生品，使其能够在较少的监管下运营。预测市场的快速增长对传统体育博彩公司构成威胁，导致 DraftKings 和 Flutter Entertainment 等主要玩家的业绩下滑</p>

<p>Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
</div><p>The booming prediction market is facing a real challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓬勃发展的预测市场正面临真正的挑战。</p>
</div><p>On January 9th, US local time, <strong>The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued injunctions to prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, requiring these platforms to stop offering sports prediction contracts to residents of the state, on the grounds that these companies are engaged in illegal gambling operations without state government permission.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国当地时间 1 月 9 日，<strong>田纳西州体育博彩委员会（SWC）对 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等预测市场平台发布了禁令，要求这些平台停止向该州居民提供体育预测合同，理由是这些公司在没有州政府许可的情况下从事非法赌博活动。</strong></p>
</div><p>Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
</div><p>The booming prediction market is facing a real challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓬勃发展的预测市场正面临真正的挑战。</p>
</div><p>On January 9th, US local time, <strong>The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued injunctions to prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, requiring these platforms to stop offering sports prediction contracts to residents of the state, on the grounds that these companies are engaged in illegal gambling operations without state government permission.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国当地时间 1 月 9 日，<strong>田纳西州体育博彩委员会（SWC）对 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等预测市场平台发布了禁令，要求这些平台停止向该州居民提供体育预测合同，理由是这些公司在没有州政府许可的情况下从事非法赌博活动。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png"/></strong></p>
</div><h2><strong>Focusing on Tennessee, what does sports betting mean?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>聚焦田纳西州，体育博彩意味着什么？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Let's turn our attention to Tennessee, the central state of this event. In 2019, Tennessee passed the Tennessee Sports Gaming Act, officially legalizing sports betting. While then-Governor Bill Lee held reservations about gambling, he allowed the bill to pass without vetoing it. Between 2021 and 2022, the Tennessee legislature passed legislation establishing a dedicated regulatory committee to oversee licensing and regulation. This committee, formerly known as the Sports Wagering Advisory Council, was later renamed the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC), the same committee mentioned at the beginning of this article that issued injunctions against Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. Currently, the SWC is the only sports betting regulatory body in Tennessee, responsible for operating licenses, compliance oversight, rulemaking, and enforcement. The State Sports Commission (SWC) mandates that all sports betting providers must obtain a license from the SWC to operate in the state; 11 licenses have been issued so far (see above). Only residents aged 21 and older can access the services, and betting must be verified through geolocation to ensure it takes place within the state. Regarding taxation, the state levies a 1.85% tax on total bets—previously an income-based tax scheme, it switched to a total betting-based tax in 2023. The sports betting market contributes significantly to Tennessee's tax revenue. According to statistics from Sports Book Review (see chart below, data as of July 2025), Tennessee's sports betting market generated $5.268 billion in total betting revenue in 2024, with tax contributions reaching $97.16 million; in the first seven months of 2025, total betting revenue reached $2.4 billion, with tax contributions reaching $56.4 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们把目光转向田纳西州，这一事件的中心州。在 2019 年，田纳西州通过了田纳西州体育博彩法，正式合法化体育博彩。虽然时任州长比尔·李对赌博持保留态度，但他允许该法案通过而没有否决。从 2021 年到 2022 年，田纳西州立法机构通过立法成立了一个专门的监管委员会，负责监督许可和监管。这个委员会，前身为体育博彩咨询委员会，后来更名为田纳西州体育博彩委员会（SWC），正是本文开头提到的对 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 发布禁令的委员会。目前，SWC 是田纳西州唯一的体育博彩监管机构，负责运营许可证、合规监督、规则制定和执行。州体育委员会（SWC）要求所有体育博彩提供商必须获得 SWC 的许可证才能在该州运营；到目前为止，已发放了 11 个许可证（见上文）。只有 21 岁及以上的居民才能使用这些服务，投注必须通过地理定位进行验证，以确保在该州内进行。关于税收，州政府对总投注额征收 1.85% 的税——之前是基于收入的税制，2023 年改为基于总投注的税制。体育博彩市场对田纳西州的税收收入贡献显著。根据体育书评（Sports Book Review）的统计数据（见下图，数据截至 2025 年 7 月），田纳西州的体育博彩市场在 2024 年产生了 52.68 亿美元的总投注收入，税收贡献达到 9716 万美元；在 2025 年的前七个月，总投注收入达到 24 亿美元，税收贡献达到 5640 万美元。</p>
</div><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png"/></strong></p>
</div><p>But this huge and still growing pie is now being gradually eroded by Polymarkets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这个庞大且仍在增长的市场现在正逐渐被 Polymarkets 侵蚀。</p>
</div><h2>How are prediction markets eroding the old world?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测市场如何侵蚀旧世界？</h2>
</div><h2>How do prediction markets erode the old world?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测市场如何侵蚀旧世界？</h2>
</div><h2>On December 3, 2025, Polymarket announced that it had received a license from the CFTC and would return to the US market after nearly four years. Prior to this, Kalshi and Crypto.com's prediction market platform, Truth Predict, had already opened its doors to US users with CFTC approval. Currently, sports betting is explicitly classified as a gambling service, with regulatory authority belonging to individual states. However, prediction market platforms like Polymarket are generally considered new entities providing &#34;event contract&#34; trading services. &#34;Event contracts,&#34; in terms of their asset nature, are considered financial derivatives and fall under the CFTC's regulatory scope. This allows prediction markets to circumvent the stringent regulations governing betting services—they don't need state licenses, user protection regulations such as addiction control, or high betting taxes paid to states; yet they can still offer sports betting services similar to traditional betting, objectively creating a degree of &#34;regulatory arbitrage.&#34; If prediction markets were still just small-scale testing grounds, that would be one thing, but the reality is that their growth rate is even more outrageous than the already phenomenal sports betting market—in 2025, the total transaction volume of prediction markets was approximately $40 billion, an increase of about 400% from $9 billion in 2024. Data Dashboards (see below) compiled by Dune show that sports-related event contracts have long been the category with the highest trading volume in the prediction market. The capital market has already sensed the growing threat that Polymarket poses to traditional sports betting services. The two giants in the sports betting market, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, recorded declines of 11.7% and 16.1% respectively over the past year. This coincided with a bull market in US stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 12.97% for the year, the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 20.36%, and the S&amp;P 500 Index rising 16.39%; moreover, the sports betting market continued its eight-year upward trend.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在 2025 年 12 月 3 日，Polymarket 宣布已获得 CFTC 的许可证，并将在近四年后重返美国市场。在此之前，Kalshi 和 Crypto.com 的预测市场平台 Truth Predict 已经获得 CFTC 批准，向美国用户开放。目前，体育博彩被明确归类为赌博服务，监管权属于各州。然而，像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场平台通常被视为提供 “事件合同” 交易服务的新实体。从资产性质上看，“事件合同” 被视为金融衍生品，属于 CFTC 的监管范围。这使得预测市场能够规避对博彩服务的严格监管——它们不需要州许可证、用户保护法规（如成瘾控制）或向州支付的高额博彩税；然而，它们仍然可以提供类似于传统博彩的体育博彩服务，客观上创造了一定程度的 “监管套利”。如果预测市场仍然只是小规模的试验场，那倒是另一回事，但现实是它们的增长速度甚至比已经非常惊人的体育博彩市场还要更为惊人——在 2025 年，预测市场的总交易量约为 400 亿美元，比 2024 年的 90 亿美元增长了约 400%。Dune 编制的数据仪表板（见下文）显示，体育相关的事件合同长期以来一直是预测市场中交易量最高的类别。资本市场已经感受到 Polymarket 对传统体育博彩服务日益增长的威胁。体育博彩市场的两大巨头 DraftKings 和 Flutter Entertainment 在过去一年分别录得 11.7% 和 16.1% 的下降。这与美国股市的牛市相吻合，标准普尔 500 指数在一年内上涨了 12.97%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 20.36%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 16.39%；此外，体育博彩市场继续保持八年的上升趋势。</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425754_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425754_image3.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Whether it's Tennessee, which relies on sports betting for tax revenue, or the capital forces that effectively control the sports betting market, neither is likely to agree to the emergence of a new player like the prediction market.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>无论是依赖体育博彩获取税收的田纳西州，还是有效控制体育博彩市场的资本力量，都不太可能同意像预测市场这样的新参与者的出现。</strong></p>
</div><h2>This friction is not an isolated case. How will the prediction market retaliate?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这种摩擦并不是个案。预测市场将如何反击？</h2>
</div><h2>In fact, Tennessee's ban on prediction markets is not an isolated case. Maryland, Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada, Montana, Michigan, and Connecticut have all previously cracked down on prediction markets for similar reasons. Since Polymarket only returned to the US market last December, Kalshi has faced even greater regulatory scrutiny. In response, Kalshi filed lawsuits against Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland, arguing that it had already complied with higher-priority federal regulations and was no longer required to comply with state regulations, but the results were unsatisfactory. The lawsuit in Nevada was the first to proceed. The district court initially supported Kalshi, but then reversed course last November, ruling against Kalshi. Judge Andrew Gordon determined that Kalshi's contracts for sports events were very similar to sports betting and therefore fell under the jurisdiction of Nevada betting regulations. Kalshi has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. In New Jersey, the district court ruled in favor of Kalshi, but the state's betting regulator has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. In Maryland, the district court heard the betting regulator's case. Judge Adam B ruled that Kalshi... Kalshi has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit for failing to prove that &#34;Congress has a clear and explicit intention to strip states of their power to regulate gambling.&#34; The law firm Benesch commented that, &#34;As the national debate continues, similar disagreements are expected at the appeals court level, which will lay the groundwork for the Supreme Court to resolve this issue in the coming years… If the appeals courts happen to unanimously support Kalshi's position, other prediction markets may follow suit and begin similar operations before the Supreme Court hears the case; however, if the appeals courts reach a different conclusion, companies in similar situations may wait for clearer legal signals before taking action. In any case, Kalshi's lawsuit will create a precedent with a direct and far-reaching impact on the national sports betting and gambling industry.&#34; In conclusion, whether prediction markets should comply with state gambling regulations remains an open question. The fundamental contradiction lies in the similarities between prediction markets and sports betting in terms of product and service providers, and the differences in regulatory requirements. This is a tug-of-war over regulatory adaptation. Until the appellate courts and even the Supreme Court issue a final ruling, the gray area between prediction markets and sports betting will persist for a long time, and regulatory conflicts will be difficult to avoid. In the short term, states may continue to defend their regulatory rights and tax base through enforcement and litigation; while prediction market platforms will attempt to use federal compliance and innovation narratives as a shield to gain greater room for survival.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>事实上，田纳西州对预测市场的禁令并不是个例。马里兰州、俄亥俄州、伊利诺伊州、新泽西州、内华达州、蒙大拿州、密歇根州和康涅狄格州都曾因类似原因对预测市场进行打压。自从 Polymarket 去年十二月重新进入美国市场以来，Kalshi 面临的监管审查更加严格。作为回应，Kalshi 对内华达州、新泽西州和马里兰州提起诉讼，辩称其已遵守更高优先级的联邦法规，不再需要遵守州法规，但结果并不理想。内华达州的诉讼是第一个进行的。地方法院最初支持 Kalshi，但去年十一月改变了立场，裁定不利于 Kalshi。法官安德鲁·戈登认为，Kalshi 的体育赛事合同与体育博彩非常相似，因此属于内华达州博彩法规的管辖范围。Kalshi 已向美国第九巡回上诉法院提出上诉。在新泽西州，地方法院裁定支持 Kalshi，但该州的博彩监管机构已向美国第三巡回上诉法院提出上诉。在马里兰州，地方法院审理了博彩监管机构的案件。法官亚当·B 裁定 Kalshi... Kalshi 已向美国第四巡回上诉法院提出上诉，理由是未能证明 “国会有明确和明确的意图剥夺各州对赌博的监管权。” 律师事务所 Benesch 评论称，“随着全国辩论的持续，类似的分歧预计将在上诉法院层面出现，这将为最高法院在未来几年解决这一问题奠定基础……如果上诉法院恰好一致支持 Kalshi 的立场，其他预测市场可能会效仿，并在最高法院审理案件之前开始类似的运营；然而，如果上诉法院得出不同的结论，处于类似情况的公司可能会在采取行动之前等待更明确的法律信号。无论如何，Kalshi 的诉讼将为国家体育博彩和赌博行业创造一个具有直接和深远影响的先例。” 总之，预测市场是否应遵守州赌博法规仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。根本矛盾在于预测市场与体育博彩在产品和服务提供者方面的相似性，以及监管要求的差异。这是一场关于监管适应的拉锯战。在上诉法院甚至最高法院作出最终裁决之前，预测市场与体育博彩之间的灰色地带将长期存在，监管冲突将难以避免。在短期内，各州可能会通过执法和诉讼继续捍卫其监管权利和税基；而预测市场平台将试图利用联邦合规和创新叙事作为盾牌，以获得更大的生存空间。</h2>
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预测市场已经撼动了数十亿美元的赌博行业，如今正受到传统势力的追赶