<p>（这里表达的观点是作者的个人观点，他是 Panmure Liberum 的投资策略师）</p>
<p>作者：乔阿希姆·克莱门特</p>
<p>伦敦，1 月 12 日（路透社）——经过两年的显著低迷，欧洲汽车行业终于显示出复苏的迹象。这个备受诟病的行业在 2026 年会成为表现优异的行业吗？欧洲的汽车制造商正处于困境。该行业面临多重结构性压力。首先，向电动车的转型需要大量投资，因为欧洲制造商急于追赶特斯拉（TSLA.O）和中国制造商的技术进步。这些投资将在未来几年对欧洲汽车制造商的利润率造成压力，相较于 COVID-19 疫情前投资者所习惯的利润率。同时，来自中国消费者的疲软需求对欧洲汽车制造商的增长造成了影响，同时也推动中国电动车制造商进入单一市场，以追求自身的增长目标。中国竞争对手在这里具有明显的优势，因为他们受益于大量的国家补贴。欧盟试图通过对 2024 年中国制造的电动车征收关税来平衡竞争环境，但中国制造商选择吸收大部分关税。因此，中国电动车相对于欧洲制造的车型的价格优势仅略微缩小。在过去两年中，欧洲汽车制造商的结果是中国市场增长放缓，欧洲市场的利润压力加剧。就在情况似乎无法更糟时，美国对欧洲汽车征收了关税。这些关税对德国的豪华车型，如梅赛德斯 - 奔驰 S 级（MBGn.DE）、宝马 7 系（BMWG.DE）和保时捷 911 造成了特别大的打击，因为它们是在德国本土生产的。结果是整个行业的股价暴跌。自 2024 年初以来，Stoxx Europe 600 汽车及零部件指数（.SXAP）表现不及 Stoxx Europe 600（.STOXX）35%。</p>
<h3>乐观情绪回归</h3>
<p>然而，在经历了两年的糟糕表现后，最近的三项发展可能预示着命运的逆转。首先，分析师认为困扰该行业多年的利润压力正在缓解。共识预测显示，2026 年的利润率将从 2025 年的极低水平开始扩张，因为过去的成本削减开始生效。其次，在经历了两年的不断盈利下调后，分析师开始上调他们的预测，自 10 月中旬以来，Stoxx Europe 600 汽车及零部件指数的每股收益预期上升了 5%。第三，投资者开始对该行业表现出兴趣。在 Sentix 对欧洲投资者情绪的月度调查中，汽车行业在 12 月表现突出，机构投资者的看法从 11 月的净 35% 看空转为 12 月的净 6% 看多。散户投资者仍然净 34% 看空，但这仍然比 11 月的净 55% 看空有所改善。2026 年会成为表现优异的行业吗？我自己的分析表明，欧洲汽车及零部件行业在 2026 年的盈利增长将高于整体市场。我之前解释过我用于长期盈利预测的构建块方法。类似的方法可以用于预测 2026 年的盈利增长。如果我们查看欧洲制造商销售汽车的地区的实际 GDP 增长，并加上当地的通货膨胀率，我们就能对 2026 年的潜在收入增长有一个大致的了解。对于 Stoxx Europe 600 汽车及零部件指数的公司来说，这将意味着 2026 年收入增长为 4.5%，而 Stoxx Europe 600 整体的收入增长为 4.3%。然后，我将分析师对利润率变化的共识预期纳入考虑。最后，我假设公司将继续以与去年大致相同的速度回购股票。结果是，汽车行业在 2026 年的每股收益增长预期为 8.6%，而 Stoxx Europe 600 的预期为 6.5%。如果这种盈利超越的情况实现，投资者可能会继续买入这一复苏，触发汽车股票的市盈率扩张，进一步推动股价回报。诚然，复苏的早期阶段仍面临许多风险。一方面，欧盟似乎准备延长淘汰内燃机的过渡期，这将允许公司将相关投资分摊到更长的时间内，从而减少年度盈利的冲击。然而，中国竞争对手继续获得市场份额，可能迫使欧洲汽车制造商接受更大的价格削减，进一步压缩利润率。如果美国政府判断回流到美国的速度不如预期，可能还会决定提高对欧洲汽车的关税。但在欧洲汽车行业的隧道尽头似乎有光明的前景。希望这不是迎面而来的火车。（这里表达的观点是乔阿希姆·克莱门特，Panmure Liberum 的投资策略师。）喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社的开放兴趣（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的重要新来源。ROI 提供从掉期利率到大豆的深思熟虑、数据驱动的分析。市场变化比以往任何时候都更快。ROI 可以帮助您跟上。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
<p>欧盟对中国电动车的关税对价格优势影响不大</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3YLHcIR?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1002" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3YLHcIR"/></p>
<p>欧盟对中国电动车的关税对价格优势影响不大 这里 预计 2026 年欧洲汽车公司的运营利润率将扩大</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3NycgZS?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3NycgZS"/></p>
<p>预计 2026 年欧洲汽车公司的运营利润率将扩大 这里 预计 2026 年每股收益增长</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4bs12jw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="818" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4bs12jw"/></p>
<p>预计 2026 年每股收益增长 这里</p>
<p>（撰写：乔阿希姆·克莱门特 编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>

AUTO

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, an investment strategist for Panmure Liberum)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（这里表达的观点是作者的个人观点，他是 Panmure Liberum 的投资策略师）</p>
</div><p>By Joachim Klement</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：乔阿希姆·克莱门特</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - After two years of significant underperformance, the European automotive sector is finally showing signs of a turnaround. Could this much-hated sector become an outperformer in 2026? Europe’s car manufacturers are in a terrible place. The industry suffers from several structural pressures. For one, the transition to electric vehicles requires large investments as European manufacturers scramble to catch up with the technological advancements of EV juggernaut Tesla (TSLA.O) and Chinese manufacturers. These investments will pressure European carmakers’ profit margins for years to come compared with the margins investors were used to before the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, lacklustre demand from Chinese consumers has weighed on growth for European carmakers while also pushing Chinese EV makers into the single market as they pursue their own growth ambitions. Chinese competitors have a distinct advantage here, as they benefit from significant state subsidies. The European Union tried to level the playing field with tariffs on Chinese-manufactured EVs in 2024, but Chinese manufacturers have chosen to absorb most of the tariffs. Chinese EVs’ price advantage over European-made models has thus narrowed only slightly. The result for European carmakers in the last two years has been declining growth in China and intensifying margin pressure in Europe. And just when things seemed like they could not get any worse, the U.S. imposed tariffs on European vehicles. These levies hit German luxury models like the Mercedes-Benz S-Class (MBGn.DE) , BMW 7-Series (BMWG.DE) and Porsche 911 particularly hard because they are manufactured domestically in Germany. The upshot has been a slump in share prices across the sector. Since the start of 2024, the Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles &amp; Parts Index (.SXAP) has underperformed the Stoxx Europe 600 (.STOXX) by 35%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，1 月 12 日（路透社）——经过两年的显著低迷，欧洲汽车行业终于显示出复苏的迹象。这个备受诟病的行业在 2026 年会成为表现优异的行业吗？欧洲的汽车制造商正处于困境。该行业面临多重结构性压力。首先，向电动车的转型需要大量投资，因为欧洲制造商急于追赶特斯拉（TSLA.O）和中国制造商的技术进步。这些投资将在未来几年对欧洲汽车制造商的利润率造成压力，相较于 COVID-19 疫情前投资者所习惯的利润率。同时，来自中国消费者的疲软需求对欧洲汽车制造商的增长造成了影响，同时也推动中国电动车制造商进入单一市场，以追求自身的增长目标。中国竞争对手在这里具有明显的优势，因为他们受益于大量的国家补贴。欧盟试图通过对 2024 年中国制造的电动车征收关税来平衡竞争环境，但中国制造商选择吸收大部分关税。因此，中国电动车相对于欧洲制造的车型的价格优势仅略微缩小。在过去两年中，欧洲汽车制造商的结果是中国市场增长放缓，欧洲市场的利润压力加剧。就在情况似乎无法更糟时，美国对欧洲汽车征收了关税。这些关税对德国的豪华车型，如梅赛德斯 - 奔驰 S 级（MBGn.DE）、宝马 7 系（BMWG.DE）和保时捷 911 造成了特别大的打击，因为它们是在德国本土生产的。结果是整个行业的股价暴跌。自 2024 年初以来，Stoxx Europe 600 汽车及零部件指数（.SXAP）表现不及 Stoxx Europe 600（.STOXX）35%。</p>
</div><h3>OPTIMISM RETURNS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>乐观情绪回归</h3>
</div><p>Yet after two very bad years, three recent developments may herald a reversal of fortunes. First, analysts think that the margin pressures that have dogged the industry for years are easing. Consensus estimates point to expanding margins in 2026 from the extremely low levels of 2025 as past cost cutting takes effect. Second, after two years of nonstop earnings downgrades, analysts have started to upgrade their forecasts, with earnings per share expectations for the Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles &amp; Parts Index rising 5% since the middle of October. Third, investors are starting to warm to the sector. In Sentix’s monthly survey of European investor sentiment, the automotive sector stood out in December, with institutional investors moving from net 35% bearish positions in November to net 6% bullish in December. Retail investors remain net 34% bearish, but that is still an improvement from the net 55% bearish level in November. AN OUTPERFORMER IN 2026? My own analysis suggests that the European automobiles and parts industry will enjoy earnings growth higher than the overall market’s in 2026. I have previously explained the building-block approach to earnings growth I use for long-term earnings forecasts. A similar methodology can be used to forecast 2026 earnings growth. If we look at the real GDP growth in the regions where European manufacturers sell their cars and add the local inflation rate, we get an idea of the potential revenue growth in 2026. For the companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles &amp; Parts Index, that would amount to 4.5% revenue growth in 2026 compared with 4.3% for the Stoxx Europe 600 overall. I then incorporate analysts’ consensus expectations for profit margin changes. Finally, I assume that companies will continue to buy back their shares at roughly the same rate as they did last year. The result is an EPS growth estimate for the automotive sector of 8.6% in 2026 compared with 6.5% for the Stoxx Europe 600. If this kind of earnings outperformance materialises, investors will likely continue to buy into the recovery, triggering an expansion of price-to-earnings ratios for automotive stocks, further boosting share-price returns. Admittedly, it is early in the turnaround and there are many risks. On the one hand, the EU seems set to extend the transition period for phasing out internal combustion engines, which would allow companies to spread the related investments over a longer period of time, reducing the annual earnings hit. However, Chinese competitors continue to gain market share and may force European carmakers to accept even larger price reductions, further reducing margins. The U.S. government could also decide to raise tariffs on European cars if it judges that reshoring to the U.S. is not happening as fast as it would like. But there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel in the European automotive industry. Let’s hope it doesn’t turn out to be an oncoming train. (The views expressed here are those of Joachim Klement, an investment strategist for Panmure Liberum.) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在经历了两年的糟糕表现后，最近的三项发展可能预示着命运的逆转。首先，分析师认为困扰该行业多年的利润压力正在缓解。共识预测显示，2026 年的利润率将从 2025 年的极低水平开始扩张，因为过去的成本削减开始生效。其次，在经历了两年的不断盈利下调后，分析师开始上调他们的预测，自 10 月中旬以来，Stoxx Europe 600 汽车及零部件指数的每股收益预期上升了 5%。第三，投资者开始对该行业表现出兴趣。在 Sentix 对欧洲投资者情绪的月度调查中，汽车行业在 12 月表现突出，机构投资者的看法从 11 月的净 35% 看空转为 12 月的净 6% 看多。散户投资者仍然净 34% 看空，但这仍然比 11 月的净 55% 看空有所改善。2026 年会成为表现优异的行业吗？我自己的分析表明，欧洲汽车及零部件行业在 2026 年的盈利增长将高于整体市场。我之前解释过我用于长期盈利预测的构建块方法。类似的方法可以用于预测 2026 年的盈利增长。如果我们查看欧洲制造商销售汽车的地区的实际 GDP 增长，并加上当地的通货膨胀率，我们就能对 2026 年的潜在收入增长有一个大致的了解。对于 Stoxx Europe 600 汽车及零部件指数的公司来说，这将意味着 2026 年收入增长为 4.5%，而 Stoxx Europe 600 整体的收入增长为 4.3%。然后，我将分析师对利润率变化的共识预期纳入考虑。最后，我假设公司将继续以与去年大致相同的速度回购股票。结果是，汽车行业在 2026 年的每股收益增长预期为 8.6%，而 Stoxx Europe 600 的预期为 6.5%。如果这种盈利超越的情况实现，投资者可能会继续买入这一复苏，触发汽车股票的市盈率扩张，进一步推动股价回报。诚然，复苏的早期阶段仍面临许多风险。一方面，欧盟似乎准备延长淘汰内燃机的过渡期，这将允许公司将相关投资分摊到更长的时间内，从而减少年度盈利的冲击。然而，中国竞争对手继续获得市场份额，可能迫使欧洲汽车制造商接受更大的价格削减，进一步压缩利润率。如果美国政府判断回流到美国的速度不如预期，可能还会决定提高对欧洲汽车的关税。但在欧洲汽车行业的隧道尽头似乎有光明的前景。希望这不是迎面而来的火车。（这里表达的观点是乔阿希姆·克莱门特，Panmure Liberum 的投资策略师。）喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社的开放兴趣（ROI），这是您获取全球金融评论的重要新来源。ROI 提供从掉期利率到大豆的深思熟虑、数据驱动的分析。市场变化比以往任何时候都更快。ROI 可以帮助您跟上。请在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。</p>
</div><p>EU tariffs on Chinese EVs did little to reduce price advantage</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟对中国电动车的关税对价格优势影响不大</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3YLHcIR" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3YLHcIR"/></p>
<p>EU tariffs on Chinese EVs did little to reduce price advantage here European auto company operating margins forecast to expand in 2026</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟对中国电动车的关税对价格优势影响不大 这里 预计 2026 年欧洲汽车公司的运营利润率将扩大</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3NycgZS" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3NycgZS"/></p>
<p>European auto company operating margins forecast to expand in 2026 here Forecast EPS growth in 2026</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计 2026 年欧洲汽车公司的运营利润率将扩大 这里 预计 2026 年每股收益增长</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4bs12jw" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4bs12jw"/></p>
<p>Forecast EPS growth in 2026 here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计 2026 年每股收益增长 这里</p>
</div><p>(Writing by Joachim Klement Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（撰写：乔阿希姆·克莱门特 编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
</div>

Klement 表示，ROI-欧洲不受欢迎的汽车行业可能会在 2026 年给投资者带来惊喜