<p>尽管比特币距离历史最高点下跌近 30%，但仍然让投资者对反弹的可能性感到兴奋。</p>
<p>在本次报道时，该资产的交易价格为 92,231 美元，处于一个关键区域，这个区域持续引发多头与空头之间的争论。</p>
<p>交易者普遍认为这个水平是一个临界点，可能会推动价格重新上涨至 100,000 美元，或者引发回调至 80,000 美元区域。链上数据和情绪指标现在提供了更清晰的洞察，显示投资者的布局情况。</p>
<h2><strong>一年变化能否预示下一次反弹？</strong></h2>
<p>比特币的 [BTC] 一年表现变化在历史上一直是识别牛市和熊市早期阶段的可靠指标。</p>
<p>在报道时，一年表现变化为-4.5%，这表明比特币尚未完全进入熊市区域。</p>
<p>然而，这一温和的下跌反映了过去周期中较为罕见的情景，即比特币的一年价格变化短暂转为负值后，随之而来的是强劲的反弹。在 2021 年牛市前也出现过类似的情况。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>为了更好地理解，前一个周期始于 2020 年 3 月，当时比特币的底部约为 3,782 美元，随后上涨至历史最高点 64,850 美元。这一波动代表了在该周期内超过 1,600% 的收益。</p>
<p>虽然类似幅度的收益并不保证，但一年百分比变化回到正值区域可能会使比特币在向新的历史最高点迈进时占据优势。</p>
<p>然而，如果一年百分比变化未能转为正值，可能标志着更深的下行趋势的开始，以及另一个熊市的早期阶段。</p>
<h2><strong>百分比变化是否足以确认熊市阶段？</strong></h2>
<p>年度百分比变化持续为负值将不是判断比特币是否进入长期下行的唯一指标。</p>
<p>其他技术因素也将发挥关键作用。</p>
<p>其中之一是比特币的两年简单移动平均线，目前约为 84,500 美元。</p>
<p>这一水平在历史上一直作为下行风险的主要指标。分析师 Joao Wedson 警告称，失去这一水平将显著增加抛售的概率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>对比特币的清算热图分析揭示了流动性集群在这一 SMA 支撑周围的布局，并显示价格可能的反应。</p>
<p>在报道时，市场在 85,400 美元区域的流动性有限。</p>
<p>然而，交易者在上述价格水平的上下方堆积了大量流动性。上方流动性从 86,817 美元到 90,000 美元区域，而下方则集中在 81,609 美元到 81,733 美元之间。</p>
<p>这些区域通常作为需求区，因为价格往往在进入这些区域后才会做出决定性动作。如果 86,000 美元到 90,000 美元之间的流动性起到催化作用，比特币可能会从这个范围内上涨。</p>
<p>如果这一区域未能维持，比特币可能会失去 84,500 美元的支撑水平，并滑向 81,000 美元区域，面临进一步下行的风险。</p>
<h2><strong>情绪依然看涨</strong></h2>
<p>尽管技术面存在不确定性，但市场情绪仍然大体看涨。</p>
<p>社区情绪指标允许交易者和投资者对价格前景进行投票，显示出强烈的乐观情绪。目前，约 80% 的 590 万投票者支持比特币的看涨情景。</p>
<p>虽然情绪本身不足以确认牛市，但行业人士也在表达信心。币安联合创始人赵长鹏最近在 X 上发帖，暗示超级周期可能即将到来。</p>
<p>他写道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“我可能错了，但超级周期即将来临。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>赵将他的部分观点归因于美国最近的发展，包括将加密货币从某些风险分类中移除，他认为这是该行业的积极信号。</p>
<p>尽管具有投机性，超级周期的前景可能会将比特币推回其历史最高点，并支持短暂负年度变化后随之而来的重大反弹这一罕见历史模式。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特币的一年百分比变化显示出与启动延续至 2025 年的多个月牛市的设置相似的模式。</em></li>
<li><em>两年支撑水平仍然是决定多头或空头将控制市场的关键区域，一些分析师已经呼吁潜在的 “超级周期”。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

GBTC

<p>比特币目前的交易价格为 92,231 美元，较历史最高点下跌近 30%，但投资者对潜在反弹仍持乐观态度。该资产正处于一个关键水平，这可能导致价格上涨至 100,000 美元或回调至 80,000 美元。一年期的表现变化为-4.5%，表明其尚未完全进入熊市。分析师建议，如果比特币的价格能够重新回到正区间，这可能预示着一次重大上涨。市场情绪依然看涨，80% 的投票者支持看涨前景，关于潜在超级周期的讨论也在逐渐浮现</p>

<p>Despite being nearly 30% down from its all-time high, Bitcoin has kept investors enthusiastic about the possibility of a rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管比特币距离历史最高点下跌近 30%，但仍然让投资者对反弹的可能性感到兴奋。</p>
</div><p>The asset, trading at $92,231 at the time of this press, sat in a critical zone that continues to fuel the bulls-versus-bears debate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本次报道时，该资产的交易价格为 92,231 美元，处于一个关键区域，这个区域持续引发多头与空头之间的争论。</p>
</div><p>Traders widely view this level as a tipping point that could either drive a renewed rally toward $100,000 or trigger a pullback into the $80,000 region. On-chain data and sentiment indicators now offer clearer insight into how investors are positioning themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者普遍认为这个水平是一个临界点，可能会推动价格重新上涨至 100,000 美元，或者引发回调至 80,000 美元区域。链上数据和情绪指标现在提供了更清晰的洞察，显示投资者的布局情况。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can the one-year change signal the next rally?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>一年变化能否预示下一次反弹？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] one-year performance change has historically served as a reliable indicator in identifying the early stages of both bull and bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的 [BTC] 一年表现变化在历史上一直是识别牛市和熊市早期阶段的可靠指标。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the one-year performance change stood at -4.5%, suggesting that Bitcoin is not fully in bearish territory yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在报道时，一年表现变化为-4.5%，这表明比特币尚未完全进入熊市区域。</p>
</div><p>This modest decline, however, mirrored one of the rarer scenarios seen in a past cycle, where Bitcoin’s one-year price change briefly turned negative before a strong rally followed. A similar setup emerged ahead of the 2021 bull run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一温和的下跌反映了过去周期中较为罕见的情景，即比特币的一年价格变化短暂转为负值后，随之而来的是强劲的反弹。在 2021 年牛市前也出现过类似的情况。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>To put this into perspective, the previous cycle began in March 2020, when Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,782 before rallying to an all-time high of $64,850. That move represented a gain of more than 1,600% within the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了更好地理解，前一个周期始于 2020 年 3 月，当时比特币的底部约为 3,782 美元，随后上涨至历史最高点 64,850 美元。这一波动代表了在该周期内超过 1,600% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>While a similar magnitude of gains is not guaranteed, a shift in the one-year percentage change back into positive territory could give Bitcoin an edge in making a major upward swing toward a new all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然类似幅度的收益并不保证，但一年百分比变化回到正值区域可能会使比特币在向新的历史最高点迈进时占据优势。</p>
</div><p>However, if the one-year percentage change fails to turn green, it could mark the start of a deeper downtrend and the early stages of another bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果一年百分比变化未能转为正值，可能标志着更深的下行趋势的开始，以及另一个熊市的早期阶段。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is the percent change enough to confirm a bear phase?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>百分比变化是否足以确认熊市阶段？</strong></h2>
</div><p>A sustained negative reading in the yearly percent change will not be the only metric to watch in determining whether Bitcoin is entering a prolonged decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年度百分比变化持续为负值将不是判断比特币是否进入长期下行的唯一指标。</p>
</div><p>Other technical factors will also play a key role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他技术因素也将发挥关键作用。</p>
</div><p>One of these is Bitcoin’s two-year simple moving average, which currently sits around $84,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中之一是比特币的两年简单移动平均线，目前约为 84,500 美元。</p>
</div><p>This level has historically acted as a major indicator of downside risk. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the probability of capitulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一水平在历史上一直作为下行风险的主要指标。分析师 Joao Wedson 警告称，失去这一水平将显著增加抛售的概率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>An analysis of Bitcoin’s Liquidation Heatmap revealed how liquidity clusters are positioned around this SMA support and signals how the price is likely to react.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对比特币的清算热图分析揭示了流动性集群在这一 SMA 支撑周围的布局，并显示价格可能的反应。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the market showed limited liquidity around the $85,400 region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在报道时，市场在 85,400 美元区域的流动性有限。</p>
</div><p>However, traders have stacked substantial liquidity both above and below the aforementioned price level. On the upside, liquidity builds from $86,817 up to the $90,000 zone, while on the downside, it concentrates between $81,609 and $81,733.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，交易者在上述价格水平的上下方堆积了大量流动性。上方流动性从 86,817 美元到 90,000 美元区域，而下方则集中在 81,609 美元到 81,733 美元之间。</p>
</div><p>These zones often act as demand areas, as price tends to trade into them before making a decisive move. If the liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000 acts as a catalyst, Bitcoin could swing higher from this range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些区域通常作为需求区，因为价格往往在进入这些区域后才会做出决定性动作。如果 86,000 美元到 90,000 美元之间的流动性起到催化作用，比特币可能会从这个范围内上涨。</p>
</div><p>If this region fails to hold, Bitcoin could lose the $84,500 support level and slide toward the $81,000 region, with the risk of further downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这一区域未能维持，比特币可能会失去 84,500 美元的支撑水平，并滑向 81,000 美元区域，面临进一步下行的风险。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Sentiment remains bullish</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>情绪依然看涨</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite the technical uncertainty, market sentiment remains largely bullish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管技术面存在不确定性，但市场情绪仍然大体看涨。</p>
</div><p>Community Sentiment indicators, which allow traders and investors to vote on their price outlook, show strong optimism. Currently, around 80% of 5.9 million voters are backing a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>社区情绪指标允许交易者和投资者对价格前景进行投票，显示出强烈的乐观情绪。目前，约 80% 的 590 万投票者支持比特币的看涨情景。</p>
</div><p>While sentiment alone is not enough to confirm a bull market, industry figures are also expressing confidence. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, recently posted on X, suggesting that a super cycle could be approaching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然情绪本身不足以确认牛市，但行业人士也在表达信心。币安联合创始人赵长鹏最近在 X 上发帖，暗示超级周期可能即将到来。</p>
</div><p>He wrote,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他写道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“I could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“我可能错了，但超级周期即将来临。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Zhao attributed part of his outlook to recent developments in the United States, including the removal of crypto from certain risk classifications, which he views as a positive signal for the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>赵将他的部分观点归因于美国最近的发展，包括将加密货币从某些风险分类中移除，他认为这是该行业的积极信号。</p>
</div><p>Although speculative, the prospect of a super cycle could push Bitcoin back toward its all-time high and support the rare historical pattern where a brief negative yearly change precedes a major rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管具有投机性，超级周期的前景可能会将比特币推回其历史最高点，并支持短暂负年度变化后随之而来的重大反弹这一罕见历史模式。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s one-year percentage change is showing a similar pattern to the setup that kickstarted the multi-month bull run that extended into 2025.</em></li>
<li><em>The two-year support level remains a key zone in determining whether bulls or bears will take control, with some analysts already calling for a potential “super cycle.”</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特币的一年百分比变化显示出与启动延续至 2025 年的多个月牛市的设置相似的模式。</em></li>
<li><em>两年支撑水平仍然是决定多头或空头将控制市场的关键区域，一些分析师已经呼吁潜在的 “超级周期”。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

随着超级周期的讨论浮出水面，比特币接近这一罕见的设置——如果……比特币可能会出现上涨