<p>作者：Saeed Azhar</p>
<p>纽约，1 月 12 日（路透社）——高盛（Goldman Sachs，GS.N）预计到 2026 年底，10 年期国债收益率将上升至 4.4%，超过当前的 4.175%，其财富管理部门的投资策略小组在周一的报告中表示，美国经济增长将超过其长期趋势。</p>
<p>这家华尔街银行表示，美国经济增长率可能为 2.3%，高于全球最大经济体的 2% 趋势。</p>
<p>高盛投资策略小组的战术资产配置负责人布雷特·尼尔森（Brett Nelson）告诉记者，强劲的增长 “确实倾向于使收益率曲线陡峭，因为经济增长超过其趋势率，而我们预计美联储将会降息，美联储降息的目标实际上是刺激经济。”</p>
<p>收益率曲线的陡峭化意味着长期和短期利率之间的差距在扩大，通常预示着对未来强劲经济增长的预期。</p>
<p>LSEG 数据显示，利率期货交易者押注 2026 年将总共降息约 50 个基点，或两次各降 25 个基点。</p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将在 5 月结束任期，未来的利率政策可能会在他的接任者手中发生变化。自去年以来，特朗普总统一直在施压美联储，要求更激进的降息，预计将在未来几个月内任命鲍威尔的继任者。</p>
<p>然而，12 月失业率的下降缓解了对劳动力市场疲软的担忧，交易者押注鲍威尔在 5 月任期结束前已经进行了最后一次降息。</p>
<p>这将使任何进一步的政策宽松掌握在特朗普总统选择的鲍威尔继任者手中。</p>
<p>尼尔森表示：“将利率维持在异常低的水平将是自我挫败的，因为这只会导致金融市场使收益率曲线陡峭化。”</p>

高盛

<p>By Saeed Azhar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Saeed Azhar</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2026, surpassing the current 4.175%, with U.S. economic growth outpacing its long-term trend, a report by its wealth management unit’s investment strategy group said on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，1 月 12 日（路透社）——高盛（Goldman Sachs，GS.N）预计到 2026 年底，10 年期国债收益率将上升至 4.4%，超过当前的 4.175%，其财富管理部门的投资策略小组在周一的报告中表示，美国经济增长将超过其长期趋势。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economic growth rate could be 2.3%, above the 2% trend for the world’s biggest economy, the Wall Street bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家华尔街银行表示，美国经济增长率可能为 2.3%，高于全球最大经济体的 2% 趋势。</p>
</div><p>Stronger growth “does tend to steepen the yield curve because you have growth running above its trend rate and then while we do expect the Fed to be cutting, the objective of Fed cuts is actually to stimulate the economy,” Brett Nelson, head of tactical asset allocation for Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group, told reporters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛投资策略小组的战术资产配置负责人布雷特·尼尔森（Brett Nelson）告诉记者，强劲的增长 “确实倾向于使收益率曲线陡峭，因为经济增长超过其趋势率，而我们预计美联储将会降息，美联储降息的目标实际上是刺激经济。”</p>
</div><p>A steeper yield curve means the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates is widening, often signalling expectations for strong future economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率曲线的陡峭化意味着长期和短期利率之间的差距在扩大，通常预示着对未来强劲经济增长的预期。</p>
</div><p>Rates futures traders are betting on a total of roughly 50 basis points in interest rate cuts for 2026, or two cuts of 25 basis points each, LSEG data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LSEG 数据显示，利率期货交易者押注 2026 年将总共降息约 50 个基点，或两次各降 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is set to end his term in May, with future rate policy potentially shifting under his replacement. President Donald Trump, who has been pressuring the Fed since last year for more aggressive rate cuts, is expected to name Powell’s successor in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将在 5 月结束任期，未来的利率政策可能会在他的接任者手中发生变化。自去年以来，特朗普总统一直在施压美联储，要求更激进的降息，预计将在未来几个月内任命鲍威尔的继任者。</p>
</div><p>The drop in the unemployment rate in December has however eased concerns about labor market weakness, with traders betting Powell has delivered his last interest rate cut before his term ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，12 月失业率的下降缓解了对劳动力市场疲软的担忧，交易者押注鲍威尔在 5 月任期结束前已经进行了最后一次降息。</p>
</div><p>That leaves any further policy easing in the hands of whomever President Trump taps as Powell’s successor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将使任何进一步的政策宽松掌握在特朗普总统选择的鲍威尔继任者手中。</p>
</div><p>“It would be self-defeating to keep rates at an abnormally low level because you would simply get the financial markets steepening the yield curve,” Nelson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尼尔森表示：“将利率维持在异常低的水平将是自我挫败的，因为这只会导致金融市场使收益率曲线陡峭化。”</p>
</div>

高盛预计，由于美国经济增长高于趋势，10 年期美国国债收益率将会上升