<p>疲弱的日元引发干预担忧，兑美元汇率创下 2024 年 7 月以来最低</p><p>美联储独立性担忧仍在投资者心中</p><p>在地缘政治紧张局势中，黄金和白银达到历史新高</p><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p><p>新加坡，1 月 14 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市周三上涨，受到日本股市的提振，投资者为可能导致更多财政刺激的日本快选做好准备，同时对中央银行独立性和温和的美国通胀数据的担忧使货币波动加剧。</p><p>全球的地缘政治紧张局势推动黄金创下历史新高，并使油价上涨，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普呼吁伊朗人继续抗议，称援助即将到来。伊朗则指责特朗普鼓励政治不稳定和煽动暴力。</p><p>日本日元（JPY=）在亚洲早盘时段兑美元汇率跌至 159.415，创下 2024 年 7 月以来的最低水平，市场干预的威胁再次浮现。当地媒体报道称，首相高市早苗正在考虑于 2 月 8 日召开快选。</p><p>疲弱的日元和更多刺激的前景使日经指数（.N225）上涨超过 1%，创下新高，并推动日本国债下跌，这种被称为 “高市交易” 的现象本周似乎得到了加速，因为投资者对该国的财政健康感到担忧。</p><p>State Street Investment Management 的高级固定收益策略师 Masahiko Loo 表示，市场的波动反映了对财政宽松的预期，尽管考虑到政治限制，这些预期可能被夸大，因为高市的联盟需要在上院获得反对派的支持才能通过立法。</p><p>“如果日元突破 161 的水平，可能会触发新的干预以遏制过度波动，” Loo 说。“在这种情况下，对日本银行加息的预期可能会提前到 4 月，这可能成为货币动态的转折点。”</p><p>MSCI 亚太地区股票的最广泛指数（.MIAP00000PUS）上涨 0.2%，徘徊在周二创下的历史最高点下方。隔夜，美国股市收盘下跌，金融股领跌，此前摩根大通高管的评论加剧了对特朗普最近提出的信用卡利率上限提案的担忧。</p><p>中国股市（.CSI300）在早盘交易中上涨 0.7%，略低于周二创下的 10 年高点。欧洲股指期货（STXEc1）上涨 0.1%，指向平淡的开盘。</p><h3>通胀降温</h3><p>周二的数据表明，美国上个月的潜在通胀压力适度。经济学家表示，这表明进口关税对价格的传导正在减缓，使得今年的降息仍在考虑之中，尽管普遍预期美联储本月将维持利率不变。</p><p>交易员预计今年至少会有两次降息，但预计在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期在 5 月结束后才会采取行动。</p><p>StoneX 的高级市场分析师 Matt Simpson 表示，美国通胀没有足够降温，无法推动降息的临近。</p><p>“由于缺乏经济角度的降息热情，美元可能在潮流转向看跌之前享受更多的买盘，” Simpson 说。</p><p>美元指数（=USD），追踪美元兑包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的表现，微幅上涨至 99.243，此前在上一交易日上涨了 0.2%。</p><p>由于投资者担心特朗普下台后美联储的独立性，美元在本周初受到打击，此前美国司法部威胁要起诉美联储主席鲍威尔，原因是与一项建筑翻新项目有关。</p><p>这导致鲍威尔发表了强烈的反驳，全球中央银行官员随后在周二联合发表声明支持他。</p><p>Balfour Capital Group 的首席投资官 Steve Lawrence 表示，市场似乎将这一事件视为主要是政治性的，而不是实质性的机构威胁。</p><p>“鲍威尔将任何起诉威胁的描述为恐吓，进一步强化了这种解读，表明机构防御而非升级，” Lawrence 说。“从市场的角度来看，这表明美联储周围现有的防护措施仍被视为完好无损。”</p><p>在商品市场，黄金（XAU=）上涨 0.6%，至每盎司 4,613.93 美元，白银（XAG=）上涨超过 2%，也攀升至历史新高。</p>

<p>亚洲股市上涨，以日本股市为首，因担忧可能的提前选举可能促使财政刺激。日元贬值至 2024 年 7 月以来的最低水平，引发干预担忧。由于地缘政治紧张局势，黄金和白银创下历史新高。美国通胀数据表明温和压力，保持了降息的可能性，尽管对立即降息的预期较低。美元指数小幅上涨，反映出对特朗普政府下美联储独立性的持续担忧。总体而言，市场对财政宽松预期和地缘政治发展作出反应</p>

<p>Frail yen stokes intervention worries, hits lowest vs dollar since July 2024</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的日元引发干预担忧，兑美元汇率创下 2024 年 7 月以来最低</p>
</div><p>Fed independence worries remain on investors mind</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储独立性担忧仍在投资者心中</p>
</div><p>Gold and silver reach record highs amid geopolitical tensions</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在地缘政治紧张局势中，黄金和白银达到历史新高</p>
</div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>SINGAPORE, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, buoyed by Japanese shares, as investors braced for a snap election in Japan that could lead to more fiscal stimulus, while worries about central bank independence and benign U.S. inflation data whipsawed currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡，1 月 14 日（路透社）- 亚洲股市周三上涨，受到日本股市的提振，投资者为可能导致更多财政刺激的日本快选做好准备，同时对中央银行独立性和温和的美国通胀数据的担忧使货币波动加剧。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitical tensions across the globe lifted gold to a record peak and sent oil prices higher as U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranians to keep protesting, saying help is on the way. Iran in turn accused Trump of encouraging political destabilization and inciting violence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球的地缘政治紧张局势推动黄金创下历史新高，并使油价上涨，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普呼吁伊朗人继续抗议，称援助即将到来。伊朗则指责特朗普鼓励政治不稳定和煽动暴力。</p>
</div><p>The Japanese yen (JPY=) hit its weakest level since July 2024 at 159.415 per dollar in early Asian hours, as the threat of a market intervention resurfaced. Local media reported that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was considering calling a snap lower house election on February 8.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日元（JPY=）在亚洲早盘时段兑美元汇率跌至 159.415，创下 2024 年 7 月以来的最低水平，市场干预的威胁再次浮现。当地媒体报道称，首相高市早苗正在考虑于 2 月 8 日召开快选。</p>
</div><p>The frail yen and the prospect of more stimulus sent the Nikkei (.N225) up more than 1% to a record and pushed Japanese government bonds lower, a so-called “Takaichi trade” that appears to have been turbocharged this week as investors worry about the country’s fiscal health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的日元和更多刺激的前景使日经指数（.N225）上涨超过 1%，创下新高，并推动日本国债下跌，这种被称为 “高市交易” 的现象本周似乎得到了加速，因为投资者对该国的财政健康感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management, said the market moves reflected expectations of fiscal easing, though they may be overstated given political constraints as Takaichi’s coalition would need the opposition’s support in the upper house to pass legislation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>State Street Investment Management 的高级固定收益策略师 Masahiko Loo 表示，市场的波动反映了对财政宽松的预期，尽管考虑到政治限制，这些预期可能被夸大，因为高市的联盟需要在上院获得反对派的支持才能通过立法。</p>
</div><p>“Any sharp and decisive break beyond 161 level (for yen) could trigger renewed intervention to curb excessive volatility,” Loo said. “In that scenario, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike may shift forward to April, potentially serving as an inflection point for currency dynamics.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果日元突破 161 的水平，可能会触发新的干预以遏制过度波动，” Loo 说。“在这种情况下，对日本银行加息的预期可能会提前到 4 月，这可能成为货币动态的转折点。”</p>
</div><p>MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) was up 0.2% to hover just below a record peak reached on Tuesday. Overnight, U.S. stocks ended lower, led by a drop in financial shares after comments from JPMorgan executives added to worries about Trump’s recent proposal for a cap on credit card rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 亚太地区股票的最广泛指数（.MIAP00000PUS）上涨 0.2%，徘徊在周二创下的历史最高点下方。隔夜，美国股市收盘下跌，金融股领跌，此前摩根大通高管的评论加剧了对特朗普最近提出的信用卡利率上限提案的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Chinese stocks (.CSI300) rose 0.7% in early trade, just below a 10-year high that was hit on Tuesday. European stock futures (STXEc1) rose 0.1%, pointing to a muted open.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国股市（.CSI300）在早盘交易中上涨 0.7%，略低于周二创下的 10 年高点。欧洲股指期货（STXEc1）上涨 0.1%，指向平淡的开盘。</p>
</div><h3>COOLING INFLATION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>通胀降温</h3>
</div><p>Data on Tuesday showed moderate underlying inflation pressures last month in the U.S. Economists said this suggested the pass-through of import tariffs to prices was slowing, keeping rate cuts on the table this year, although the broad expectation is for the Fed to stand pat this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二的数据表明，美国上个月的潜在通胀压力适度。经济学家表示，这表明进口关税对价格的传导正在减缓，使得今年的降息仍在考虑之中，尽管普遍预期美联储本月将维持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>Traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, with a move not expected until after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员预计今年至少会有两次降息，但预计在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期在 5 月结束后才会采取行动。</p>
</div><p>Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at StoneX, said U.S. inflation is not slowing sufficiently to move the needle towards imminent rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneX 的高级市场分析师 Matt Simpson 表示，美国通胀没有足够降温，无法推动降息的临近。</p>
</div><p>“With lack of enthusiasm for cuts from an economic perspective, the US dollar might enjoy a bit more of a bid before the tide reverts to bearish hands,” Simpson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于缺乏经济角度的降息热情，美元可能在潮流转向看跌之前享受更多的买盘，” Simpson 说。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index (=USD) , which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, inched higher to 99.243 after rising 0.2% in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指数（=USD），追踪美元兑包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的表现，微幅上涨至 99.243，此前在上一交易日上涨了 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>The dollar was knocked back at the start of the week as investors worried about Fed independence under Trump after the U.S. Department of Justice threatened to indict Fed Chair Powell in connection with a building renovation project.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投资者担心特朗普下台后美联储的独立性，美元在本周初受到打击，此前美国司法部威胁要起诉美联储主席鲍威尔，原因是与一项建筑翻新项目有关。</p>
</div><p>That led to a sharp rebuke from Powell and global central bank officials later issued a coordinated statement of support for him on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致鲍威尔发表了强烈的反驳，全球中央银行官员随后在周二联合发表声明支持他。</p>
</div><p>Steve Lawrence, chief investment officer of Balfour Capital Group, said markets appeared to view this episode as largely political rather than a substantive institutional threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Balfour Capital Group 的首席投资官 Steve Lawrence 表示，市场似乎将这一事件视为主要是政治性的，而不是实质性的机构威胁。</p>
</div><p>“Powell’s characterization of any threat of indictment as intimidation reinforces that interpretation, signalling institutional defence rather than escalation,” Lawrence said. “From a market perspective, this suggests existing guardrails around the Fed are still seen as intact.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“鲍威尔将任何起诉威胁的描述为恐吓，进一步强化了这种解读，表明机构防御而非升级，” Lawrence 说。“从市场的角度来看，这表明美联储周围现有的防护措施仍被视为完好无损。”</p>
</div><p>In commodities, gold (XAU=) rose 0.6% to $4,613.93 per ounce and silver (XAG=) surged more than 2%, also climbing to a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品市场，黄金（XAU=）上涨 0.6%，至每盎司 4,613.93 美元，白银（XAG=）上涨超过 2%，也攀升至历史新高。</p>
</div>

全球市场 - 亚洲股市略有上涨，脆弱的日元引发了对干预的担忧