<p>尽管美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周日披露他收到了与美联储总部装修相关的司法部传票，引发了政治风暴，但多位华尔街分析师认为，真正的风暴眼在于即将于 1 月 21 日举行的美国最高法院听证会。</p>
<p>在那一天，法院将听取与唐纳德·特朗普总统试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克相关的辩论。裁决可能会建立一个关键的法律先例：白宫是否可以援引 “正当理由” 条款绕过《美联储法》下的保护，强制解雇在职的美联储官员。</p>
<p>美国银行经济学家阿迪提亚·巴哈夫在最近的一份报告中直言不讳：“对库克的不利裁决将大幅提高鲍威尔因司法部调查而最终被罢免的可能性。我们一直认为，库克案件对政策前景的影响比下一任美联储主席的身份更为重要。我们现在认为这一观点得到了更坚定的支持。” 他强调，该案件将作为一个试金石，检验总统是否能够重塑美联储的机构结构。</p>
<p>市场正在密切关注。如果美联储的独立性受到侵犯，指导货币政策的框架可能会从基于证据转变为政治驱动——这对长期资本成本和资产定价构成根本威胁。</p>
<p>这些事态发展已经在金融市场上引起了波动。根据 CME 集团的数据，交易员们大幅增加了对美联储在即将召开的政策会议上不采取行动的押注，将下次降息的预期推迟到 6 月。查尔斯·施瓦布的宏观研究与战略负责人凯文·戈登指出，尽管市场对鲍威尔消息的即时反应幅度有限，但方向却是明确的：美元下跌，股票下跌，债券下跌——这为市场在冲击持续的情况下如何定价这一风险提供了预览。</p>
<h3>最高法院的 “决定性战役”：库克案件的连锁反应</h3>
<p>对于投资者来说，1 月 21 日是值得在日历上圈出的日期。</p>
<p>听证会的核心是特朗普政府指控丽莎·库克在抵押贷款申请中虚报了她的主要居住地，构成欺诈。尽管早期的罢免努力被法院阻止，但如果白宫这次胜诉，将为总统 “正当理由” 解雇美联储官员铺平法律道路。</p>
<p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="810" height="513" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e"/></p>
<p>根据 Axios 的报道，1913 年的《美联储法》允许总统仅在 “正当理由” 下罢免董事会成员。雪城大学的法学副教授珍妮·布林指出，尽管最高法院此前已赋予总统对其他机构官员更广泛的解雇权，但历史上一直试图将美联储作为一个 “结构独特、准私营实体” 进行保护。她警告称，如果裁决支持特朗普，这将进一步侵蚀对行政权力的限制。</p>
<p>《巴伦周刊》的评论警告投资者可能过于自满。如果法院允许库克被解雇，特朗普将更容易根据调查结果罢免鲍威尔。文章警告称：“如果投资者感觉特朗普将获得广泛的 ‘正当理由’ 罢免理事的权力，本月可能标志着下一个熊市的开始——甚至是市场崩盘。”</p>
<h3>市场的长期结构性风险</h3>
<p>这场法律斗争的影响远远超出了短期波动。</p>
<p>《巴伦周刊》认为，如果特朗普胜诉并成功 “填补” 美联储，最坏的情况不仅仅是一个在经济周期良性阶段被容忍的鸽派央行。真正的危险在于，当经济周期需要加息时，一个政治忠诚的美联储拒绝采取行动。在那时，市场将付出更高的结构性代价。</p>
<p>查尔斯·施瓦布的凯文·戈登强调，库克裁决 “将在定义任何总统塑造美联储结构的能力方面具有巨大影响。”</p>
<p>珍妮·布林补充说，对鲍威尔的调查表明，政府越来越不受民主规范的约束，使得任何司法制衡显得尤为重要。如果法院未能明确捍卫美联储的独立性，唯一剩下的约束可能就是市场本身——通过剧烈的抛售来阻止进一步的总统干预中央银行。</p>
<h3>鲍威尔的反击：继续担任理事直至最后一刻</h3>
<p>讽刺的是，特朗普政府的激进策略可能适得其反。</p>
<p>根据 CNBC 的报道，针对鲍威尔的调查——重点是他是否误导国会关于装修项目——可能反而坚定了他在担任主席任期结束后继续留在美联储董事会的决心。</p>
<p>虽然鲍威尔的主席任期在 5 月结束，但他作为美联储理事的任期将持续到 2028 年。这将使他能够继续留在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），继续成为特朗普推动激进降息的障碍。</p>
<p>德意志银行首席美国经济学家马修·卢泽蒂向客户表示：“虽然这从未是我们的基本情况，但这个周末的事件可能提高鲍威尔选择留在美联储的可能性。事实上，如果政府继续对鲍威尔主席提出刑事指控，而参议院共和党人拒绝推进新理事的提名，FOMC 可能合理地选择鲍威尔继续担任主席。”</p>
<p>来自 Polymarket 的数据表明，鲍威尔在其主席任期结束后继续担任美联储理事的概率已上升至 55% 以上。自上周以来，他在年底前离开董事会的几率已从 70% 降至 60% 以下。</p>
<p>鲍威尔本人在周日发布的一份声明中暗示了这一可能性：</p>
<p>“我将继续以诚信和为美国人民服务的承诺，履行参议院确认我所做的工作。”</p>

<p>下周二，美国最高法院将就特朗普解雇联邦储备委员会成员丽莎·库克的案件进行听证，这将成为捍卫联邦储备独立性的关键转折点。分析师警告称，如果白宫胜诉，将为特朗普解除鲍威尔的职务打开法律漏洞。一旦联邦储备的独立性受到损害，可能会引发严重的资产重新定价和市场动荡。“本月可能标志着下一个熊市的开始，甚至是市场崩盘。”</p>

<p>Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ignited a political firestorm on Sunday by disclosing that he had received a Justice Department subpoena related to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters, multiple Wall Street analysts argue that the real eye of the storm lies ahead: a US Supreme Court hearing scheduled for January 21.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周日披露他收到了与美联储总部装修相关的司法部传票，引发了政治风暴，但多位华尔街分析师认为，真正的风暴眼在于即将于 1 月 21 日举行的美国最高法院听证会。</p>
</div><p>On that day, the Court will hear arguments related to President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The ruling could establish a critical legal precedent: whether the White House can invoke “for cause” provisions to bypass protections under the Federal Reserve Act and forcibly dismiss a sitting Fed official.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在那一天，法院将听取与唐纳德·特朗普总统试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克相关的辩论。裁决可能会建立一个关键的法律先例：白宫是否可以援引 “正当理由” 条款绕过《美联储法》下的保护，强制解雇在职的美联储官员。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave was blunt in a recent note: “An adverse ruling for Cook would materially raise the probability that Powell could ultimately be removed as a result of the Justice Department investigation. We have long believed that the Cook case matters more for the policy outlook than the identity of the next Fed chair. We now believe that view is even more firmly supported.” He stressed that the case will serve as a litmus test for whether a president can reshape the Federal Reserve’s institutional structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行经济学家阿迪提亚·巴哈夫在最近的一份报告中直言不讳：“对库克的不利裁决将大幅提高鲍威尔因司法部调查而最终被罢免的可能性。我们一直认为，库克案件对政策前景的影响比下一任美联储主席的身份更为重要。我们现在认为这一观点得到了更坚定的支持。” 他强调，该案件将作为一个试金石，检验总统是否能够重塑美联储的机构结构。</p>
</div><p>Markets are watching closely. If the Fed’s independence were to be breached, the framework guiding monetary policy could shift from being evidence-based to politically driven—posing a fundamental threat to long-term capital costs and asset pricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场正在密切关注。如果美联储的独立性受到侵犯，指导货币政策的框架可能会从基于证据转变为政治驱动——这对长期资本成本和资产定价构成根本威胁。</p>
</div><p>The developments have already rippled through financial markets. According to CME Group data, traders have sharply increased bets that the Fed will take no action at its upcoming policy meeting, pushing expectations for the next rate cut out to June. Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at Charles Schwab, noted that while the immediate market reaction to Powell’s news was limited in magnitude, the direction was unambiguous: the dollar fell, equities fell, and bonds fell—offering a preview of how markets may price in this risk should the shock persist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些事态发展已经在金融市场上引起了波动。根据 CME 集团的数据，交易员们大幅增加了对美联储在即将召开的政策会议上不采取行动的押注，将下次降息的预期推迟到 6 月。查尔斯·施瓦布的宏观研究与战略负责人凯文·戈登指出，尽管市场对鲍威尔消息的即时反应幅度有限，但方向却是明确的：美元下跌，股票下跌，债券下跌——这为市场在冲击持续的情况下如何定价这一风险提供了预览。</p>
</div><h3>The Supreme Court’s “Decisive Battle”: The Chain Reaction from the Cook Case</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>最高法院的 “决定性战役”：库克案件的连锁反应</h3>
</div><p>For investors, Tuesday, January 21, is a date that deserves a circle on the calendar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，1 月 21 日是值得在日历上圈出的日期。</p>
</div><p>At the heart of the hearing is the Trump administration’s allegation that Lisa Cook misrepresented her primary residence on a mortgage application, constituting fraud. Although earlier efforts to remove her were blocked by the courts, a White House victory this time would clear the legal path for presidents to dismiss Fed officials “for cause.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>听证会的核心是特朗普政府指控丽莎·库克在抵押贷款申请中虚报了她的主要居住地，构成欺诈。尽管早期的罢免努力被法院阻止，但如果白宫这次胜诉，将为总统 “正当理由” 解雇美联储官员铺平法律道路。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e"/></p>
<p>According to Axios, the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 allows presidents to remove board members only “for cause.” Jenny Breen, an associate professor of law at Syracuse University, noted that while the Supreme Court has previously granted presidents broader dismissal authority over officials at other agencies, it has historically sought to insulate the Federal Reserve as a “structurally unique, quasi-private entity.” A ruling in Trump’s favor, she warned, would mark a further erosion of constraints on executive power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Axios 的报道，1913 年的《美联储法》允许总统仅在 “正当理由” 下罢免董事会成员。雪城大学的法学副教授珍妮·布林指出，尽管最高法院此前已赋予总统对其他机构官员更广泛的解雇权，但历史上一直试图将美联储作为一个 “结构独特、准私营实体” 进行保护。她警告称，如果裁决支持特朗普，这将进一步侵蚀对行政权力的限制。</p>
</div><p>A Barron’s commentary cautioned that investors may be dangerously complacent. If the Court permits Cook’s dismissal, Trump would find it far easier to remove Powell on the basis of investigative findings. “If investors sense that Trump will gain broad authority to remove governors ‘for cause,’ this month could mark the beginning of the next bear market—or even a market crash,” the article warned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《巴伦周刊》的评论警告投资者可能过于自满。如果法院允许库克被解雇，特朗普将更容易根据调查结果罢免鲍威尔。文章警告称：“如果投资者感觉特朗普将获得广泛的 ‘正当理由’ 罢免理事的权力，本月可能标志着下一个熊市的开始——甚至是市场崩盘。”</p>
</div><h3>Long-Term Structural Risks for Markets</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>市场的长期结构性风险</h3>
</div><p>The implications of this legal battle extend well beyond short-term volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场法律斗争的影响远远超出了短期波动。</p>
</div><p>Barron’s argued that if Trump prevails and successfully “packs” the Fed, the worst-case scenario is not merely a dovish central bank tolerated during a benign phase of the cycle. The real danger emerges when the economic cycle demands rate hikes—and a politically loyal Fed refuses to act. At that point, markets would pay a far steeper structural price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《巴伦周刊》认为，如果特朗普胜诉并成功 “填补” 美联储，最坏的情况不仅仅是一个在经济周期良性阶段被容忍的鸽派央行。真正的危险在于，当经济周期需要加息时，一个政治忠诚的美联储拒绝采取行动。在那时，市场将付出更高的结构性代价。</p>
</div><p>Charles Schwab’s Kevin Gordon emphasized that the Cook ruling “will carry enormous weight in defining the extent of any president’s ability to shape the structure of the Federal Reserve.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查尔斯·施瓦布的凯文·戈登强调，库克裁决 “将在定义任何总统塑造美联储结构的能力方面具有巨大影响。”</p>
</div><p>Jenny Breen added that the investigation into Powell suggests a government increasingly unconstrained by democratic norms, making any judicial check particularly important. If the Court fails to clearly defend the Fed’s independence, the only remaining constraint may be the market itself—through a violent sell-off that halts further presidential interference with the central bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>珍妮·布林补充说，对鲍威尔的调查表明，政府越来越不受民主规范的约束，使得任何司法制衡显得尤为重要。如果法院未能明确捍卫美联储的独立性，唯一剩下的约束可能就是市场本身——通过剧烈的抛售来阻止进一步的总统干预中央银行。</p>
</div><h3>Powell’s Countermove: Staying On as Governor to Fight to the End</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鲍威尔的反击：继续担任理事直至最后一刻</h3>
</div><p>Ironically, the Trump administration’s aggressive tactics may prove counterproductive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讽刺的是，特朗普政府的激进策略可能适得其反。</p>
</div><p>According to CNBC, the investigation into Powell—focused on whether he misled Congress about the renovation project—may instead harden his resolve to remain on the Federal Reserve Board after his term as chair expires in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CNBC 的报道，针对鲍威尔的调查——重点是他是否误导国会关于装修项目——可能反而坚定了他在担任主席任期结束后继续留在美联储董事会的决心。</p>
</div><p>While Powell’s chairmanship ends in May, his term as a Fed governor runs through 2028. That would allow him to remain on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), serving as a continuing obstacle to Trump’s push for aggressive rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然鲍威尔的主席任期在 5 月结束，但他作为美联储理事的任期将持续到 2028 年。这将使他能够继续留在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），继续成为特朗普推动激进降息的障碍。</p>
</div><p>Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti wrote to clients: “While this has never been our base case, the events of this weekend could raise the probability that Powell chooses to remain at the Fed. In fact, if the administration presses forward with criminal charges against Chair Powell and Senate Republicans refuse to advance nominations for new governors, the FOMC could plausibly select Powell to remain as chair.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志银行首席美国经济学家马修·卢泽蒂向客户表示：“虽然这从未是我们的基本情况，但这个周末的事件可能提高鲍威尔选择留在美联储的可能性。事实上，如果政府继续对鲍威尔主席提出刑事指控，而参议院共和党人拒绝推进新理事的提名，FOMC 可能合理地选择鲍威尔继续担任主席。”</p>
</div><p>Data from Polymarket show that the probability of Powell staying on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends has risen above 55%. Since last week, the odds of his departure from the Board by year-end have fallen from 70% to below 60%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 Polymarket 的数据表明，鲍威尔在其主席任期结束后继续担任美联储理事的概率已上升至 55% 以上。自上周以来，他在年底前离开董事会的几率已从 70% 降至 60% 以下。</p>
</div><p>Powell himself hinted at this possibility in a statement released on Sunday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔本人在周日发布的一份声明中暗示了这一可能性：</p>
</div><p>“I will continue to carry out the work the Senate confirmed me to do with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我将继续以诚信和为美国人民服务的承诺，履行参议院确认我所做的工作。”</p>
</div>

Compared with Powell receiving subpoenas, next week’s court hearing is seen as far more consequential for the Federal Reserve’s independence

- 美联储主席鲍威尔因装修受司法部调查，引发市场波动。  
- 最高法院将于 1 月 21 日听证特朗普对库克的罢免案，可能重塑美联储独立性。  
- 若裁决支持特朗普，市场面临长期结构性风险，或进一步影响货币政策。

与杰罗姆·鲍威尔收到传票相比，下周的法庭听证会被认为对美联储的独立性影响更大