<p>在过去三年中，七大巨头一直是股市反弹的领先指标。但随着 2026 年的到来，它们的集体动能似乎正在减弱，这一精英的巨型科技股群体现在开始对更广泛的市场产生拖累作用，而不是推动力。</p>
<p>从年初到 1 月 14 日，七大巨头中的五个成员处于负增长区间。</p>
<p><strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA)，<strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAPL)，<strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MSFT)，<strong>Meta Platforms Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: META)，以及 <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: TSLA) 均出现下滑。</p>
<p>只有 <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) 和 <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) 逆势而上。</p>
<p>平均来看，该组的年初至今下跌了 1.7%，而受欢迎的 <strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong> (NYSE: MAGS) 在同一时期下跌了 2.5%。</p>
<h2>科技精英在 2026 年初从领头羊转变为滞后者</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>名称</th>
<th>总回报（年初至今）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>NVIDIA Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.18%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+7.14%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.62%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Microsoft Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.30%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+2.49%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Meta Platforms, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.67%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Magnificent Seven（平均）</strong></td>
<td><strong>-1.70%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.50%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>在过去三个月的大部分时间里，七大巨头的表现优于等权重市场。随着 2026 年的开始，这一关系发生了变化。</p>
<p>这一科技精英的表现不佳对更广泛的市场造成了压力。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在 2026 年迄今几乎持平，仅上涨 0.7%，突显出指数级表现仍然高度依赖少数几家巨型公司的影响。</p>
<p>七大巨头仍占标准普尔 500 指数总权重的 35% 以上。当去除集中效应时，这种依赖性变得更加明显。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，持有等权重标准普尔 500 指数的投资者——例如 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong> (NYSE: RSP)——年初至今上涨了 3.3%，表现优于市值加权指数。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png"/></p>
<h2>投资者从科技股转向价值股</h2>
<p>“纳斯达克 100 在去年年底遭遇重创，因为投资者减少了对成长型科技股的投资，同时将收益再投资于被忽视的价值股，”<strong>David Morrison</strong>，Trade Nation 的分析师表示。</p>
<p>“这扩大了股票的投资范围，对市场来说是一个健康的发展，” 他补充道。</p>
<p>这一转变在风格因子中表现得非常明显，价值股在最近几个月有效地领先于成长股。</p>
<p><strong>Vanguard Value ETF</strong> (NYSE: VTV) 自去年十月中旬以来上涨了 7%，超越了 <strong>Vanguard Growth ETF</strong> (NYSE: VUG) 5 个百分点。</p>
<h2>这只是巨型科技股的暂时停顿吗？</h2>
<p>一些分析师认为，近期的回调更像是喘息，而不是崩溃，尤其是在第四季度财报即将公布之际。</p>
<p>根据 <strong>Jeff Buchbinder</strong>，LPL Financial 的首席股票策略师，人工智能仍然是推动盈利增长的主导力量。</p>
<p>与人工智能相关的公司，包括七大巨头，预计将在第四季度推动标准普尔 500 指数约 80% 的预期 8% 盈利增长，基于当前的估计。</p>
<p>仅科技行业的盈利预计将增长超过 25%，最终结果可能将增长推高至 30% 以上。</p>
<p>“换个角度来看，最大的六家科技公司，即七大巨头中不包括特斯拉（TSLA），预计将在本季度推动超过 60% 的标准普尔 500 盈利增长，平均增长 19%，” Buchbinder 表示。</p>
<p>这一增速将是指数中剩余 493 家公司可能交付的增速的两倍多。</p>
<h2>牛市的下一步是什么？</h2>
<p>巨型科技股之外的盈利增长悄然改善。根据 LPL Financial 的数据，剩余的标准普尔 493 家公司在 2025 年第三季度的利润增长了 11.8%，并可能再次实现两位数的增长。</p>
<p>这一差距仍然解释了为什么该公司更青睐大型成长股而非大型价值股，即使领导地位开始转变。</p>
<p>真正的转折点取决于华盛顿。周期性价值股只有在财政政策提供支持的情况下才能继续获得增长，而科技股则需要降温，Buchbinder 表示。</p>
<p>他预计，与 “一项美丽的法案” 相关的额外刺激措施可能会延续这一轮换，工业股将成为未来一年的突出主题。</p>
<p>目前，七大巨头不再单独支撑市场。华尔街首次看到一个不依赖科技巨头每一步都在引领的反弹。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>七大科技股（The Magnificent Seven）在 2026 年初失去动能，负面影响标准普尔 500 指数（S&P 500），投资者开始转向价值股。七大成员中有五个处于负增长状态，整体年初至今平均下降 1.7%。这一变化表明了更广泛的市场趋势，因为等权重指数的表现优于市值加权的标准普尔 500 指数。分析师认为，这一回调可能是暂时的，预计未来一个季度由人工智能相关公司推动的强劲盈利增长将会出现，同时财政政策可能会影响未来的市场动态</p>

<p>For about three years, the Magnificent Seven have been the leading indicators of the equity market rally. But as 2026 gets underway, their collective momentum appears to be fading, and the elite group of mega-cap tech stocks is now starting to act as a drag on the broader market rather than its engine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，七大巨头一直是股市反弹的领先指标。但随着 2026 年的到来，它们的集体动能似乎正在减弱，这一精英的巨型科技股群体现在开始对更广泛的市场产生拖累作用，而不是推动力。</p>
</div><p>From the start of the year through Jan. 14, five members of the Magnificent Seven sit in negative territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从年初到 1 月 14 日，七大巨头中的五个成员处于负增长区间。</p>
</div><p><strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA), <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAPL), <strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MSFT), <strong>Meta Platforms Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: META), and <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: TSLA) have all slipped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA)，<strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAPL)，<strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MSFT)，<strong>Meta Platforms Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: META)，以及 <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: TSLA) 均出现下滑。</p>
</div><p>Only <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) and <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) have bucked the trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) 和 <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) 逆势而上。</p>
</div><p>On average, the group is down 1.7% year-to-date while the popular <strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong> (NYSE: MAGS) has fallen 2.5% during the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均来看，该组的年初至今下跌了 1.7%，而受欢迎的 <strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong> (NYSE: MAGS) 在同一时期下跌了 2.5%。</p>
</div><h2>Tech's Elite Turn From Leaders to Laggers in Early 2026</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>科技精英在 2026 年初从领头羊转变为滞后者</h2>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>NAME</th>
<th>TOTAL RETURN (YTD)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>NVIDIA Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.18%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+7.14%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.62%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Microsoft Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.30%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+2.49%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Meta Platforms, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.67%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Magnificent Seven (Average)</strong></td>
<td><strong>-1.70%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.50%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>名称</th>
<th>总回报（年初至今）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>NVIDIA Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.18%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+7.14%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.62%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Microsoft Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.30%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+2.49%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Meta Platforms, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.67%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Magnificent Seven（平均）</strong></td>
<td><strong>-1.70%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.50%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>For much of the past three months, the Magnificent Seven outperformed the equal-weighted market. That relationship snapped as 2026 began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三个月的大部分时间里，七大巨头的表现优于等权重市场。随着 2026 年的开始，这一关系发生了变化。</p>
</div><p>This tech-elite underperformance has weighed on the broader market. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is barely positive so far in 2026, up just 0.7%, highlighting how heavily index-level performance still depends on a handful of mega-cap names.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一科技精英的表现不佳对更广泛的市场造成了压力。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 在 2026 年迄今几乎持平，仅上涨 0.7%，突显出指数级表现仍然高度依赖少数几家巨型公司的影响。</p>
</div><p>The Magnificent Seven still account for more than 35% of the S&amp;P 500's total weighting. That dependence becomes even clearer when the concentration effect is removed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七大巨头仍占标准普尔 500 指数总权重的 35% 以上。当去除集中效应时，这种依赖性变得更加明显。</p>
</div><p>Notably, an investor holding an equal-weighted version of the S&amp;P 500 — such as the <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong> (NYSE: RSP) — would be up 3.3% year-to-date, outperforming the market-cap-weighted index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，持有等权重标准普尔 500 指数的投资者——例如 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong> (NYSE: RSP)——年初至今上涨了 3.3%，表现优于市值加权指数。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png"/></p>
<h2>Investors Rotate Away From Tech And Into Value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者从科技股转向价值股</h2>
</div><p>“The Nasdaq 100 took a knock at the end of last year as investors cut their exposure to growthy tech names, while reinvesting the proceeds in overlooked value plays,” said <strong>David Morrison</strong>, analyst at Trade Nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“纳斯达克 100 在去年年底遭遇重创，因为投资者减少了对成长型科技股的投资，同时将收益再投资于被忽视的价值股，”<strong>David Morrison</strong>，Trade Nation 的分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>“This has broadened out equity exposure and is a healthy development for the market,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这扩大了股票的投资范围，对市场来说是一个健康的发展，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><p>The shift shows up clearly across style factors, as value stocks have effectively led growth in recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一转变在风格因子中表现得非常明显，价值股在最近几个月有效地领先于成长股。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>Vanguard Value ETF</strong> (NYSE: VTV) has risen by 7% since mid-october, outperforming the <strong>Vanguard Growth ETF</strong> (NYSE: VUG) by 5 percentage points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Vanguard Value ETF</strong> (NYSE: VTV) 自去年十月中旬以来上涨了 7%，超越了 <strong>Vanguard Growth ETF</strong> (NYSE: VUG) 5 个百分点。</p>
</div><h2>Is This Just A Pause For Mega-Cap Tech?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只是巨型科技股的暂时停顿吗？</h2>
</div><p>Some analysts see the recent pullback as a breather rather than a breakdown, especially with fourth-quarter earnings approaching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师认为，近期的回调更像是喘息，而不是崩溃，尤其是在第四季度财报即将公布之际。</p>
</div><p>According to <strong>Jeff Buchbinder,</strong> chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, artificial intelligence remains the dominant force behind earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>Jeff Buchbinder</strong>，LPL Financial 的首席股票策略师，人工智能仍然是推动盈利增长的主导力量。</p>
</div><p>AI-related names, including the Magnificent Seven, are expected to drive roughly 80% of the S&amp;P 500's projected 8% earnings growth in the fourth quarter, based on current estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与人工智能相关的公司，包括七大巨头，预计将在第四季度推动标准普尔 500 指数约 80% 的预期 8% 盈利增长，基于当前的估计。</p>
</div><p>The technology sector alone is forecast to grow earnings by more than 25%, with final results potentially pushing growth above 30%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅科技行业的盈利预计将增长超过 25%，最终结果可能将增长推高至 30% 以上。</p>
</div><p>“Slicing this another way, the biggest six technology companies, i.e., the Mag Seven excluding Tesla (TSLA), are expected to drive over 60% of S&amp;P 500 earnings growth for the quarter by growing earnings an average of 19%,” Buchbinder said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“换个角度来看，最大的六家科技公司，即七大巨头中不包括特斯拉（TSLA），预计将在本季度推动超过 60% 的标准普尔 500 盈利增长，平均增长 19%，” Buchbinder 表示。</p>
</div><p>That pace would more than double what the remaining 493 companies in the index are likely to deliver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一增速将是指数中剩余 493 家公司可能交付的增速的两倍多。</p>
</div><h2>What Comes Next For The Bull Market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛市的下一步是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Earnings growth beyond mega-cap tech has quietly improved. The remaining S&amp;P 493 grew profits 11.8% in the third quarter of 2025 and could post double-digit growth again, according to LPL Financial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巨型科技股之外的盈利增长悄然改善。根据 LPL Financial 的数据，剩余的标准普尔 493 家公司在 2025 年第三季度的利润增长了 11.8%，并可能再次实现两位数的增长。</p>
</div><p>That gap still explains why the firm favors large growth stocks over large value, even as leadership starts to shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一差距仍然解释了为什么该公司更青睐大型成长股而非大型价值股，即使领导地位开始转变。</p>
</div><p>A true turning point depends on Washington. Cyclical value stocks can keep gaining ground only if fiscal policy adds fuel while technology cools, according to Buchbinder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>真正的转折点取决于华盛顿。周期性价值股只有在财政政策提供支持的情况下才能继续获得增长，而科技股则需要降温，Buchbinder 表示。</p>
</div><p>He expects that additional stimulus tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act may extend that rotation, with industrial stocks emerging as a standout theme for the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他预计，与 “一项美丽的法案” 相关的额外刺激措施可能会延续这一轮换，工业股将成为未来一年的突出主题。</p>
</div><p>For now, the Magnificent Seven are no longer carrying the market alone. Wall Street is getting a first look at a rally that does not depend on tech giants leading every step.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，七大巨头不再单独支撑市场。华尔街首次看到一个不依赖科技巨头每一步都在引领的反弹。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

为什么壮丽七巨头在 2026 年初对市场的掌控力减弱了？