<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>尽管政府关门早已结束，但最近的政府住房更新仅为十月份的数据，即已经滞后两个月。因此，美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）的现有住宅销售报告暂时成为我们观察住房销售、价格和库存的最佳窗口。</p>
<p>根据我今年的背景，自 2022 年美联储开始加息以来，抵押贷款利率也迅速从 3% 上升到 6%-7% 的范围，并一直保持在该范围内。由于销售跟随抵押贷款利率，现有住宅销售迅速下降至 400 万年化单位，并在过去 3.5 年中一直保持在该范围内，通常波动在 +/-20 万之间。自九月份以来，抵押贷款利率处于 3 年多来的低点，而在十二月份，现有住宅销售如预期般反应，突破该范围，年化销售达到 435 万单位，为 2023 年 3 月以来的最高水平：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp"/></p>
<p>在过去的几年里，我一直在关注新房和二手房市场的重新平衡。现有住宅库存已经从市场上消失超过 10 年（这可能部分是由于缺席的租赁业主购买了越来越多的库存），并在疫情期间加速。这导致了待售房屋的急剧短缺，进而引发了买家之间的竞价战和价格飙升。</p>
<p>市场的重新平衡，最重要的是，需要将库存增加到至少达到疫情前的水平，并减缓价格上涨，甚至出现明显下降。这意味着销售水平本身远不如现有住宅的中位价格和库存对我们关于住房市场持续重新平衡的指示重要。</p>
<p>库存的长期下降在 2022 年达到了最低点。该系列数据未经过季节性调整，因此必须按年同比进行观察。在十二月份，库存急剧下降，正如每年一样，降至 118 万，超过了自 2019 年以来每个十二月的水平，当时库存为 139 万：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp"/></p>
<p>由于疫情前库存通常在 170 万到 190 万之间，慢性短缺仍然存在，尽管这种情况正在非常缓慢地缓解。</p>
<p>为了使库存完全调整，价格也必须调整。如下面的图表所示，现有住宅的中位价格在 2019 年 7 月至 2022 年 7 月之间上涨了约 45%，并在今年 7 月之前又上涨了 5%，然后季节性下降：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp"/></p>
<p>在未进行季节性调整的情况下，我的经验法则是，当同比百分比变化低于过去 12 个月最大变化的一半时，就会出现峰值（或谷底）。以下是过去 12 个月的比较：</p>
<p>十二月 6.0%</p>
<p>一月 4.8%</p>
<p>二月 3.6%</p>
<p>三月 2.7%</p>
<p>四月 1.8%</p>
<p>五月 1.3%</p>
<p>六月 2.0%</p>
<p>七月 0.2%</p>
<p>八月 2.2%</p>
<p>九月 2.1%</p>
<p>十月 2.1%</p>
<p>十一月 1.2%</p>
<p>十二月 1.4%</p>
<p>尽管自七月以来的同比价格比较有所上升，但仍远低于过去 12 个月的峰值 6.0%，因此可以得出合理的结论，如果我们能够进行季节性调整，房价比去年春天要软。</p>
<p>我关于现有住宅销售的最后报告得出结论：“新房与现有房市场的重新平衡是一个漫长而缓慢的过程。昨天的现有住宅销售报告是朝着这一重新平衡非常缓慢进展的又一个数据点。” 十二月份的报告为销售的 “绿 shoots” 理论提供了证据，此外还有我们本周早些时候获得的住房建设和新房销售数据。但重新平衡仍然是一个漫长的过程，疫情期间的低库存几乎完全逆转，但仍远低于 2016-2018 年的水平。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>十一月零售销售大幅上升，但同比实际销售疲软预示着进一步的麻烦</p>
<p>十二月就业报告：对即将到来的衰退敲响警钟，但有一些警告</p>
<p>十一月 JOLTS 报告与劳动市场的疲软趋势一致，但呈现横盘而非负向趋势</p>

Forestar集团

<p>12 月份现有住宅销售年化增至 435 万套，为 2023 年 3 月以来的最高水平，显示出房地产市场可能正在重新平衡。尽管库存短缺问题长期存在，并在 2022 年达到峰值，但市场正在缓慢调整。中位房价出现软化迹象，年同比价格变动仍低于之前的峰值。该报告支持销售的 “绿 shoots” 论点，尽管整体的重新平衡过程仍然缓慢且具有挑战性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=MXwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHw%3D&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Although the government shutdown is long over, the most recent government housing updates have been for October, I.e., two months stale. Thus, the NAR’s existing home sales report has temporarily become among our best look at housing sales, prices, and inventorythe housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管政府关门早已结束，但最近的政府住房更新仅为十月份的数据，即已经滞后两个月。因此，美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）的现有住宅销售报告暂时成为我们观察住房销售、价格和库存的最佳窗口。</p>
</div><p>As per my context all this year, after the Fed began hiking rates in 2022, mortgage rates also rapidly rose from 3% to the 6%-7% range, where they have remained ever since. Since sales follow mortgage interest rates, existing home sales rapidly declined to 4.0 million annualized, and have remained in that range, generally +/-0.20 million for the past 3.5+ years. Since September, mortgage rates have been at the bottom of their 3+ year range, and in December existing home sales predictably reacted, breaking out of that range to the upside, at 4.35 million units annualized, the highest number since March 2023:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据我今年的背景，自 2022 年美联储开始加息以来，抵押贷款利率也迅速从 3% 上升到 6%-7% 的范围，并一直保持在该范围内。由于销售跟随抵押贷款利率，现有住宅销售迅速下降至 400 万年化单位，并在过去 3.5 年中一直保持在该范围内，通常波动在 +/-20 万之间。自九月份以来，抵押贷款利率处于 3 年多来的低点，而在十二月份，现有住宅销售如预期般反应，突破该范围，年化销售达到 435 万单位，为 2023 年 3 月以来的最高水平：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp"/></p>
<p>In the past several years, I have been looking for the new and existing home markets to rebalance. Existing home inventory has been removed from the market for over 10 years (likely due in part to absentee rental owners buying increasing chunks of inventory), and really accelerated during the pandemic. This caused an acute shortage of houses for sale, which in turn led to bidding wars among buyers and a spike in prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的几年里，我一直在关注新房和二手房市场的重新平衡。现有住宅库存已经从市场上消失超过 10 年（这可能部分是由于缺席的租赁业主购买了越来越多的库存），并在疫情期间加速。这导致了待售房屋的急剧短缺，进而引发了买家之间的竞价战和价格飙升。</p>
</div><p>A rebalancing of the market, more than anything, would require an increase in inventory at least to pre-COVID levels, and a deceleration of price increases, or even outright decreases. Which means that the level of sales themselves was far less important than what the median price for an existing home and inventory are telling us about the ongoing rebalancing of the housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的重新平衡，最重要的是，需要将库存增加到至少达到疫情前的水平，并减缓价格上涨，甚至出现明显下降。这意味着销售水平本身远不如现有住宅的中位价格和库存对我们关于住房市场持续重新平衡的指示重要。</p>
</div><p>The secular decline in inventory reached a nadir in 2022. This series is not seasonally adjusted, so it must be looked at YoY. In December, inventory declined sharply, as it does every year, to 1.18 million, exceeding every December level since 2019, when its level was 1.39 million:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库存的长期下降在 2022 年达到了最低点。该系列数据未经过季节性调整，因此必须按年同比进行观察。在十二月份，库存急剧下降，正如每年一样，降至 118 万，超过了自 2019 年以来每个十二月的水平，当时库存为 139 万：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp"/></p>
<p>Since inventory was typically in the 1.7 million to 1.9 million range before the pandemic, the chronic shortage still exists, although it is very slowly abating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于疫情前库存通常在 170 万到 190 万之间，慢性短缺仍然存在，尽管这种情况正在非常缓慢地缓解。</p>
</div><p>For inventory to fully adjust, so must prices. As shown in the graph below, the median price of an existing home rose about 45% between July 2019 and July 2022 and another 5% from there through July of this year, before seasonally declining:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了使库存完全调整，价格也必须调整。如下面的图表所示，现有住宅的中位价格在 2019 年 7 月至 2022 年 7 月之间上涨了约 45%，并在今年 7 月之前又上涨了 5%，然后季节性下降：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp"/></p>
<p>With seasonal adjustments are not made, my rule of thumb is that a peak (or trough) occurs when the YoY% change is less than half of its maximum change in the past 12 months. Here are the comparisons in the past 12 months:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未进行季节性调整的情况下，我的经验法则是，当同比百分比变化低于过去 12 个月最大变化的一半时，就会出现峰值（或谷底）。以下是过去 12 个月的比较：</p>
</div><p>December 6.0%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月 6.0%</p>
</div><p>January 4.8%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一月 4.8%</p>
</div><p>February 3.6%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>二月 3.6%</p>
</div><p>March 2.7%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三月 2.7%</p>
</div><p>April 1.8%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月 1.8%</p>
</div><p>May 1.3%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五月 1.3%</p>
</div><p>June 2.0%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>六月 2.0%</p>
</div><p>July 0.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七月 0.2%</p>
</div><p>August 2.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八月 2.2%</p>
</div><p>September 2.1%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>九月 2.1%</p>
</div><p>October 2.1%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十月 2.1%</p>
</div><p>November 1.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月 1.2%</p>
</div><p>December 1.4%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月 1.4%</p>
</div><p>While YoY price comparisons have crept up since July, they remain well below their past 12 month peak of 6.0%, so the fair conclusion remains that, if we could seasonally adjust, house prices are softer than they were last spring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管自七月以来的同比价格比较有所上升，但仍远低于过去 12 个月的峰值 6.0%，因此可以得出合理的结论，如果我们能够进行季节性调整，房价比去年春天要软。</p>
</div><p>My last report on existing home sales concluded that “the rebalancing of the [new vs. existing housing] market is a long, slow slog. Yesterday’s existing home sales report is another data point of very slow progress towards that rebalancing.” The December report adds evidence to the “green shoots” thesis for sales on top of the housing construction and new home sales data we got earlier this week. But the rebalancing remains a long slog, with the pandemic-era low inventory almost totally reversed, yet far below the 2016-18 levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我关于现有住宅销售的最后报告得出结论：“新房与现有房市场的重新平衡是一个漫长而缓慢的过程。昨天的现有住宅销售报告是朝着这一重新平衡非常缓慢进展的又一个数据点。” 十二月份的报告为销售的 “绿 shoots” 理论提供了证据，此外还有我们本周早些时候获得的住房建设和新房销售数据。但重新平衡仍然是一个漫长的过程，疫情期间的低库存几乎完全逆转，但仍远低于 2016-2018 年的水平。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Monthly Retail Sales Sharply Higher In November, But Flagging YoY Real Sales Spell Further Trouble</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月零售销售大幅上升，但同比实际销售疲软预示着进一步的麻烦</p>
</div><p>December Jobs Report: Ringing The Alarm Bells For Imminent Recession, With Caveats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月就业报告：对即将到来的衰退敲响警钟，但有一些警告</p>
</div><p>November JOLTS Report Consistent With A Weak, But Sideways Rather Than Negative, Trend In The Labor Market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月 JOLTS 报告与劳动市场的疲软趋势一致，但呈现横盘而非负向趋势</p>
</div>

12 月现房销售为销售市场的 “绿芽” 论点提供了更多证据