<p>TradingKey - 在过去一年几乎增长了三倍之后，Robinhood 再次成为增长投资者的焦点。这家在线经纪公司利用了市场的上升、零售交易的复苏以及盈利能力的显著改善。</p>
<p>然而，股价短暂而剧烈的回撤引发了新的质疑：这波反弹是否过头？随着 HOOD 股票接近下一个财报季，投资者现在必须考虑当前价格是否提供了一个有吸引力的入场点，或者短期风险是否变得过于沉重而无法忽视。</p>
<h2><strong>反弹背后的业务</strong></h2>
<p>Robinhood 能够跻身经纪公司排名的顶端，主要是因为它颠覆了传统的按交易收取佣金的模式，并提供了一个以移动为主的用户体验，易于新手理解。该公司通过多个渠道在这一生态系统中获得收入，包括订单流支付、加密交易差价和返利、未投资现金和保证金贷款的净利息收入，以及来自高级 Gold 级别的订阅收入。这些收入来源使平台能够保持交易免费，同时从系统内的活动和余额中获利。</p>
<p>公司的增长轨迹并非一帆风顺。2020 年和 2021 年，由于刺激支票、社交媒体热情和投机热潮，零售交易的繁荣随之而来，但在 2022 年，随着利率上升，投资者转向更安全的资产，交易活动急剧放缓。自那时以来，Robinhood 通过扩大产品供应、增加变现能力，并稳步扩展其金融服务的覆盖范围，重新获得了动力。</p>
<p>从 2020 年到 2024 年，收入增长了三倍以上，达到 29.5 亿美元，而资金客户数量从 1250 万增加到 2520 万。盈利能力也显著改善，调整后的 EBITDA 在 2023 年再次转为正值，并在 2024 年进一步增长，公司也实现了 GAAP 盈利。</p>
<h2><strong>增长正在加速，而非停滞</strong></h2>
<p>公司最新季度的增量销售增长的广泛环境表明，复苏正在加速，而不是停滞。2025 年前九个月的收入同比飙升 65%，达到 31.9 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 增长超过一倍，增加了 116%，达到 17.6 亿美元。GAAP 净收入为 1.69 亿美元，超过 15 倍的增长。这部分业绩得益于对 TradePMR 的收购，但有机增长也很强劲。</p>
<p>用户指标也在增加，月活跃用户约为 1100 万。截至 2025 年第三季度，资金账户已增长至 2680 万，同比增长 10%。更引人注目的是高价值客户的增加：支付高级功能（如保证金访问和更高现金余额利息）的 Gold 订阅用户增加了 77%，达到 390 万。这一趋势表明，用户收入也在随着用户增长而改善，这对维持长期盈利能力至关重要。</p>
<p>华尔街押注这种势头将继续。预计全年收入和调整后的 EBITDA 将分别增长 53% 和 77%，并且根据共识预测，收入和 EBITDA 预计将在 2027 年前显著增长。许多乐观情绪基于 Robinhood 试图成为更广泛的金融科技平台，包括更多传统银行业务、财富管理和 AI 辅助投资工具。</p>
<h2><strong>新的催化剂正在拓宽可解决的市场</strong></h2>
<p>Robinhood 正在为增长开辟额外渠道，除了其主要的经纪平台。更雄心勃勃的代币化项目包括美国国债、股票、ETF，甚至持有私营公司股份的特殊目的工具（SPV）。通过在自己的区块链平台上推出这些工具，公司希望提供比传统模式更快的结算和更低的交易成本。</p>
<p>与此同时，其管理层表示愿意通过收购来扩大客户和资产基础，并正在进入体育预测和其他基于事件的交易产品等相邻市场。全球化是另一个杠杆，最近在印度尼西亚的收购强调了这一战略。总体而言，这些努力旨在确保 Robinhood 在传统零售交易变得更加周期性时仍然保持相关性。</p>
<h2><strong>最近回调真正表明了什么</strong></h2>
<p>由于 11 月交易量低于预期，Hood 股票下跌：在强劲的基本面故事之后，HOOD 股票最近因公司报告 11 月环比交易量疲软而跌宕起伏。股票交易量下降了 37%，而期权和加密交易量分别下降了 28% 和 12%。尽管整体平台资产仅略微下降，大多数数字仍同比上升，但市场将这些数据解读为活动放缓的潜在迹象，并作出了反应。</p>
<p>这并没有吓跑所有人。Cathie Wood 的 Ark Invest 在低迷时买入，跨其基金购买了超过 3000 万美元的 Robinhood 股票，使该公司在 ARK Innovation 和 ARK Fintech &amp; Blockchain ETF 中占据了重要位置。这一决定表明，11 月的放缓是一个异常现象，是 10 月表现异常强劲和加密市场暂时下滑的结果，而不是业务的根本性转变。</p>
<p>这一评估是否正确将在下一批交易回顾和财报中变得更加清晰。在短期内，市场情绪可能会对交易量波动的进一步迹象做出相当敏感的反应。</p>
<h2><strong>估值和关键风险</strong></h2>
<p>在这些水平上，Robinhood 的股票不再便宜。根据不同的指标，该股似乎在未来收益和调整后 EBITDA 的基础上以高倍数交易。如果 Robinhood 能够像过去一年那样持续增长，这种估值是可以合理化的。但如果交易量比预期显著放缓，或者新举措的扩展时间超出预期，倍数可能会急剧收缩。</p>
<p>该公司对市场情绪和交易量的依赖也意味着其业绩将继续呈周期性波动。持续的风险规避环境，或加密货币和期权交易的持续疲软，也可能对收入增长和利润率施加压力。来自其他金融科技平台和传统经纪商的竞争，包括那些常常在 sofi 与 robinhood 等类别下进行比较的公司，也是一个长期问题。</p>
<h2><strong>投资者现在应该如何看待 HOOD 股票</strong></h2>
<p>对于评估 Robinhood 股票价格今天是否过高的投资者来说，风险和时间的暴露是主要因素。在短期内，月度交易数据和财报中仍存在一些短期波动，而溢价估值几乎没有失望的空间。然而，从长远来看，Robinhood 不断增长的生态系统、扩大的 EBITDA 盈利能力以及超越其原始经纪模式的能力，都暗示着持续增长的路径。</p>
<p>如果它能够继续将活跃用户转化为更高价值的订阅者，增加新的资产类别和市场，并保持收入的增长势头，那么今天的估值在事后看来可能仍然是合理的。在这种情况下，最近的回调可以被视为长期上升趋势中的一次暂停，而不是反转的开始。对于一个长期关注的投资者来说，相信该平台能够继续重塑零售金融，Robinhood 是一个高风险、高回报的投资，而不是一个已经结束的故事。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

HOOD

<p>Robinhood 的股票在过去一年中经历了显著增长，几乎增长了三倍，但最近的回调引发了投资者的担忧。该公司改善了盈利能力并扩大了产品种类，导致收入和用户指标激增。尽管最近交易量有所下降，华尔街对 Robinhood 未来的增长仍持乐观态度，认为其在金融科技领域的扩展和新市场机会将推动增长。然而，最近股价的下跌引发了对其涨势可持续性的质疑</p>

<p>TradingKey - After nearly tripling over the past year, Robinhood is once again a magnet for growth investors. The online brokerage has capitalized on a rising market, a resurgence in retail trading, and a dramatic improvement in profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在过去一年几乎增长了三倍之后，Robinhood 再次成为增长投资者的焦点。这家在线经纪公司利用了市场的上升、零售交易的复苏以及盈利能力的显著改善。</p>
</div><p>However, a short-lived but sharp retreat in the share price has led to renewed questions: Is the rally overdone? With HOOD stock approaching its next earnings season amidst high expectations, investors must now consider if the current price offers an attractive entry point or if the short-term risks are becoming too heavy to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股价短暂而剧烈的回撤引发了新的质疑：这波反弹是否过头？随着 HOOD 股票接近下一个财报季，投资者现在必须考虑当前价格是否提供了一个有吸引力的入场点，或者短期风险是否变得过于沉重而无法忽视。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The business behind the rally</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>反弹背后的业务</strong></h2>
</div><p>Robinhood rose to the top of the brokerage ranks in large part because it disrupted the traditional model of charging commissions on trades and offered a mobile-first, user experience that was easy for newcomers to understand. The company derives revenues in this ecosystem via multiple channels, including payment for order flow, crypto trading spreads and rebates, net interest income from uninvested cash and margin lending, and subscription revenue from a premium Gold tier. These sources of income enable the platform to keep trading free, while profiting from activity and balances across the system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 能够跻身经纪公司排名的顶端，主要是因为它颠覆了传统的按交易收取佣金的模式，并提供了一个以移动为主的用户体验，易于新手理解。该公司通过多个渠道在这一生态系统中获得收入，包括订单流支付、加密交易差价和返利、未投资现金和保证金贷款的净利息收入，以及来自高级 Gold 级别的订阅收入。这些收入来源使平台能够保持交易免费，同时从系统内的活动和余额中获利。</p>
</div><p>The company’s trajectory of growth has been anything but straight. A boom in retail trading in 2020 and 2021 encouraged by stimulus checks, social media enthusiasm, and speculative heat was followed by a sharp slowdown in 2022 as rising rates incentivized investors to move into safer assets. Since then, Robinhood has regained its momentum by broadening its product offerings, increasing monetization, and steadily expanding its reach into financial services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的增长轨迹并非一帆风顺。2020 年和 2021 年，由于刺激支票、社交媒体热情和投机热潮，零售交易的繁荣随之而来，但在 2022 年，随着利率上升，投资者转向更安全的资产，交易活动急剧放缓。自那时以来，Robinhood 通过扩大产品供应、增加变现能力，并稳步扩展其金融服务的覆盖范围，重新获得了动力。</p>
</div><p>From 2020 to 2024, revenue more than tripled to $2.95 billion, while the number of funded customers increased from 12.5 million to 25.2 million. Profitability is also significantly better with adjusted EBITDA becoming positive again in 2023 and further increasing in 2024, and the company becoming GAAP profitable as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2020 年到 2024 年，收入增长了三倍以上，达到 29.5 亿美元，而资金客户数量从 1250 万增加到 2520 万。盈利能力也显著改善，调整后的 EBITDA 在 2023 年再次转为正值，并在 2024 年进一步增长，公司也实现了 GAAP 盈利。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Growth Is Accelerating, Not Stalling</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>增长正在加速，而非停滞</strong></h2>
</div><p>That broader environment of rising incremental sales for the company’s latest quarter suggests a recovery is picking up speed, not stalling out. Revenues for the first nine months of 2025 soared 65% year-over-year to $3.19 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled, increasing by 116% to $1.76 billion. GAAP net income was $169 million, more than 15 times higher. Part of that performance is due to the acquisition of TradePMR, but the organic growth has been strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司最新季度的增量销售增长的广泛环境表明，复苏正在加速，而不是停滞。2025 年前九个月的收入同比飙升 65%，达到 31.9 亿美元，调整后的 EBITDA 增长超过一倍，增加了 116%，达到 17.6 亿美元。GAAP 净收入为 1.69 亿美元，超过 15 倍的增长。这部分业绩得益于对 TradePMR 的收购，但有机增长也很强劲。</p>
</div><p>User metrics are also increasing, around 11 million monthly active users. Funded accounts have grown to 26.8 million as of 3Q25, a 10% YoY increase. Even more striking is the increase in higher-value customers: Gold subscribers who pay for premium features such as margin access and higher interest on cash balances, rose 77% to 3.9 million. This trend indicates that revenue per user is also improving together with headline user growth, which is essential to maintaining long term profitablity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>用户指标也在增加，月活跃用户约为 1100 万。截至 2025 年第三季度，资金账户已增长至 2680 万，同比增长 10%。更引人注目的是高价值客户的增加：支付高级功能（如保证金访问和更高现金余额利息）的 Gold 订阅用户增加了 77%，达到 390 万。这一趋势表明，用户收入也在随着用户增长而改善，这对维持长期盈利能力至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is betting that this momentum will continue. Full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to grow by 53% and 77%, respectively, and revenue and EBITDA are expected to grow significantly on a compounding basis through 2027, based on consensus estimates. A lot of that optimism is based on Robinhood’ s bid to become a broader fintech platform, including more traditional banking, wealth management, and AI-assisted investment tools.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街押注这种势头将继续。预计全年收入和调整后的 EBITDA 将分别增长 53% 和 77%，并且根据共识预测，收入和 EBITDA 预计将在 2027 年前显著增长。许多乐观情绪基于 Robinhood 试图成为更广泛的金融科技平台，包括更多传统银行业务、财富管理和 AI 辅助投资工具。</p>
</div><h2><strong>New catalysts are broadening the market that can be addressed</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>新的催化剂正在拓宽可解决的市场</strong></h2>
</div><p>Robinhood is opening up additional channels for growth besides its main brokerage platform. Among the more ambitious tokenization projects is that of U.S. Treasuries, stocks, ETFs and even special-purpose vehicles (SPV) that hold stakes in private companies. By launching these instruments on its own blockchain platform, the company seeks to deliver the benefit of faster settlement and lower transaction costs than traditional models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Robinhood 正在为增长开辟额外渠道，除了其主要的经纪平台。更雄心勃勃的代币化项目包括美国国债、股票、ETF，甚至持有私营公司股份的特殊目的工具（SPV）。通过在自己的区块链平台上推出这些工具，公司希望提供比传统模式更快的结算和更低的交易成本。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, its management has indicated that it is open to acquisitions to grow its customer and assets base, and it is moving into adjacent markets such as sports prediction and other event-based trading products. Going global is another lever, with recent bolt-ons in Indonesia underscoring this strategy. Collectively, the efforts aim to ensure Robinhood stays relevant if traditional retail trading becomes more cyclical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，其管理层表示愿意通过收购来扩大客户和资产基础，并正在进入体育预测和其他基于事件的交易产品等相邻市场。全球化是另一个杠杆，最近在印度尼西亚的收购强调了这一战略。总体而言，这些努力旨在确保 Robinhood 在传统零售交易变得更加周期性时仍然保持相关性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What the recent pullback really indicates</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最近回调真正表明了什么</strong></h2>
</div><p>Hood stock falls after weaker than expected November trading volumes: following a robust fundamental tale, HOOD stock has stumbled recently after the company reported softer month-over-month trading volumes for the month of November. Equity trading volumes decreased 37%, while options and crypto volumes fell 28% and 12%, respectively. While overall platform assets declined only slightly and most numbers were still rising year over year, the market read the data as a potential sign of slowing activity, and it responded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 11 月交易量低于预期，Hood 股票下跌：在强劲的基本面故事之后，HOOD 股票最近因公司报告 11 月环比交易量疲软而跌宕起伏。股票交易量下降了 37%，而期权和加密交易量分别下降了 28% 和 12%。尽管整体平台资产仅略微下降，大多数数字仍同比上升，但市场将这些数据解读为活动放缓的潜在迹象，并作出了反应。</p>
</div><p>It didn't chase away everyone. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest was buying the dip, snapping up more than $30 million in Robinhood shares across its funds, catapulting the company to significant positions in both the ARK Innovation and ARK Fintech &amp; Blockchain ETFs. The decision suggests that the November slowdown was an aberration, the product of an exceptionally strong performance in October and a temporary downward tick in crypto markets rather than a fundamental shift in the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并没有吓跑所有人。Cathie Wood 的 Ark Invest 在低迷时买入，跨其基金购买了超过 3000 万美元的 Robinhood 股票，使该公司在 ARK Innovation 和 ARK Fintech &amp; Blockchain ETF 中占据了重要位置。这一决定表明，11 月的放缓是一个异常现象，是 10 月表现异常强劲和加密市场暂时下滑的结果，而不是业务的根本性转变。</p>
</div><p>Whether that assessment turns out right will be clearer with the next batch of trading reviews and earnings. In the near term, the sentiment could be quite reactive to further indication of volume volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一评估是否正确将在下一批交易回顾和财报中变得更加清晰。在短期内，市场情绪可能会对交易量波动的进一步迹象做出相当敏感的反应。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Valuation and Key Risks</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>估值和关键风险</strong></h2>
</div><p>Hood stock is no longer cheap at these levels. Based on different metrics, the share seems to be trading at a high multiple on a forward-looking basis on both earnings and adjusted EBITDA. That valuation can be rationalized if Robinhood keeps growing like it has over the past year. But if the volume of trade slows more significantly than expected or if new initiatives take longer than anticipated to scale up, the multiple could contract sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些水平上，Robinhood 的股票不再便宜。根据不同的指标，该股似乎在未来收益和调整后 EBITDA 的基础上以高倍数交易。如果 Robinhood 能够像过去一年那样持续增长，这种估值是可以合理化的。但如果交易量比预期显著放缓，或者新举措的扩展时间超出预期，倍数可能会急剧收缩。</p>
</div><p>The company’s dependence upon market sentiment and trading volume also means that its results will continue to be cyclical. A sustained risk-off environment, or a persistent weakening in trading of crypto and options, would also be likely to put pressure on the growth of revenue and on margins. Competition from other fintech platforms and traditional brokers, including ones frequently compared under categories such as sofi vs robinhood, is another long-term issue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司对市场情绪和交易量的依赖也意味着其业绩将继续呈周期性波动。持续的风险规避环境，或加密货币和期权交易的持续疲软，也可能对收入增长和利润率施加压力。来自其他金融科技平台和传统经纪商的竞争，包括那些常常在 sofi 与 robinhood 等类别下进行比较的公司，也是一个长期问题。</p>
</div><h2><strong>How Investors Should Think About HOOD Stock Now</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>投资者现在应该如何看待 HOOD 股票</strong></h2>
</div><p>For investors assessing whether hood stock price is high today or not, the exposure is largely related to time and risk. In the near-term, some short-term volatility in monthly trading data and earnings reports persists, and a premium valuation leaves little room for disappointment. Longer term, however, Robinhood’s growing ecosystem, expanding EBITDA profitability and ability to pivot beyond its original brokerage model, all suggest a path for sustained growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于评估 Robinhood 股票价格今天是否过高的投资者来说，风险和时间的暴露是主要因素。在短期内，月度交易数据和财报中仍存在一些短期波动，而溢价估值几乎没有失望的空间。然而，从长远来看，Robinhood 不断增长的生态系统、扩大的 EBITDA 盈利能力以及超越其原始经纪模式的能力，都暗示着持续增长的路径。</p>
</div><p>If it can continue converting active users into higher-value subscribers, add new asset classes and markets, and sustain that momentum in revenue, today’s valuation may still prove reasonable in hindsight. In that case, the recent pullback could be considered as nothing more than a pause in a longer term uptrend rather than the beginning of a reversal. For a long-term-focused investor who believes the platform can continue to reshape retail finance, Robinhood is a high risk, high reward wager and not a story that has already run its course.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果它能够继续将活跃用户转化为更高价值的订阅者，增加新的资产类别和市场，并保持收入的增长势头，那么今天的估值在事后看来可能仍然是合理的。在这种情况下，最近的回调可以被视为长期上升趋势中的一次暂停，而不是反转的开始。对于一个长期关注的投资者来说，相信该平台能够继续重塑零售金融，Robinhood 是一个高风险、高回报的投资，而不是一个已经结束的故事。</p>
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Robinhood 股票前景：在经历上涨和近期回调后，HOOD 股票是否值得买入？