<p>杠杆正在悄然重新成为比特币（[BTC]）动能的主要驱动力。最近的突破引发了一场激烈的空头挤压，迫使交易者大规模平仓空头头寸。</p>
<p>根据 Glassnode 的数据，这是自 2025 年 10 月 10 日以来，前 500 种加密货币中最大的空头清算事件。</p>
<p>在图表上，清算峰值与比特币的局部高点紧密对齐。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>交易者在短时间内清除了数百万的空头敞口，强制回补推动价格上涨，增强了上涨压力。</p>
<p>这种行为自 2025 年底以来一直在积累，但随着比特币保持在高位而不是回调，强度加速。</p>
<p>如果当前的清算持续，比特币可能仅凭动能延伸至$100,000-$105,000 区间。</p>
<p>然而，如果融资降温且未平仓合约重置，价格可能会整合。过去的挤压显示，持续性依赖于现货需求取代杠杆。</p>
<h2><strong>OG 供应回撤信号…</strong></h2>
<p>OG 比特币持有者不再以本周期早期的速度进行分发。</p>
<p>来自超过五年未动用的币的 STXO 数据表明，长期持有者的支出明显放缓。</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 的数据确认，OG 在 2024 年期间非常活跃，利用机构需求和政府购买作为理想的退出流动性。</p>
<p>然而，这种行为已经发生了变化。在周期早期，OG 支出在接近 3,800 BTC 时达到峰值，随后降至 3,200 BTC，再到 2,200 BTC。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>短期内，OG 的轻微卖出减少了上方供应，支持价格稳定。相反，从长期来看，这种行为则表明了信心。</p>
<p>历史上，OG 的克制与积累阶段相一致，而不是晚周期的分发。</p>
<h2><strong>鲸鱼对冲，散户入场：谁先崩溃？</strong></h2>
<p>图表突显出明显的分歧。鲸鱼首先平掉他们的多头敞口，然后转向空头，表明了一种有意的转变。</p>
<p>与此同时，尽管动能减弱，价格仍然保持在高位。与此同时，杠杆正在悄然重建。</p>
<p>综合来看，这些因素将风险倾向于下行。鲸鱼早早反应，因为他们看到拥挤的头寸和晚周期行为。</p>
<p>此外，OG 比特币持有者不再积极分发。这隔离了有机卖压，使杠杆成为主要驱动因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>散户交易者往往朝相反方向移动。他们追逐上涨动能，反应价格而非结构。随着波动性扩大，他们倾向于增加多头头寸。</p>
<p>与此同时，来自 Alphractal 的链上数据表明，鲸鱼在比特币接近$69,000 时平掉多头并转向空头。散户交易者则相反，涌入杠杆多头。</p>
<p>不久之后，比特币修正了近 20%，从$69,000 跌至$56,000，然后稳定下来。</p>
<p>这种设置指向潜在的震荡或降温阶段。如果杠杆解除，价格可能会回调，然后才能发生任何可持续的延续。</p>
<p>总的来说，比特币的结构很清晰，因为动能是由杠杆驱动，而不是现货需求。</p>
<p>空头清算推高了价格，而 OG 的卖出放缓，鲸鱼则变得防御性。这收紧了供应，但提高了脆弱性。</p>
<p>因此，上行仍然脆弱。可持续的收益需要现货需求取代杠杆。在此之前，波动风险保持高位，任何进一步的延伸都面临修正重置的风险。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最终思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>杠杆现在驱动比特币的动能，空头清算推高价格，而现货需求仍然是次要的，增加了波动性驱动回调的风险。</em></li>
<li><em>聪明资金开始谨慎，鲸鱼对冲，OG 持有者减缓卖出，信号显示供应收紧，但除非现货买家介入，否则反弹脆弱。</em></li>
</ul>

GBTC

<p>比特币最近的价格动能主要是由杠杆驱动，而非需求，这一点通过一次显著的空头挤压得以体现，迫使交易者平仓看跌头寸。尽管这将比特币推向了 10 万美元的关口，但这一涨势的可持续性取决于现货需求是否能够取代杠杆需求。早期比特币持有者正在减少抛售，表明可能进入积累阶段，但大户正在对冲，显示出谨慎态度。目前的市场结构脆弱，波动风险较高，除非现货买家出现以支撑价格</p>

<p>Leverage is quietly reasserting itself as the main driver of Bitcoin’s [BTC] momentum. The recent breakout triggered an aggressive short squeeze, forcing traders to unwind bearish positions at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杠杆正在悄然重新成为比特币（[BTC]）动能的主要驱动力。最近的突破引发了一场激烈的空头挤压，迫使交易者大规模平仓空头头寸。</p>
</div><p>According to Glassnode, this was the largest short-liquidation event across the top 500 cryptocurrencies since the 10th of October 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Glassnode 的数据，这是自 2025 年 10 月 10 日以来，前 500 种加密货币中最大的空头清算事件。</p>
</div><p>On the chart, liquidation spikes align tightly with Bitcoin’s push to local highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在图表上，清算峰值与比特币的局部高点紧密对齐。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Traders wiped out millions in short exposure within a short time window, and forced buybacks chased the price higher, reinforcing upside pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者在短时间内清除了数百万的空头敞口，强制回补推动价格上涨，增强了上涨压力。</p>
</div><p>This behavior has been building since late 2025, but the intensity accelerated as Bitcoin held elevated levels instead of retracing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种行为自 2025 年底以来一直在积累，但随着比特币保持在高位而不是回调，强度加速。</p>
</div><p>If current liquidations persist, Bitcoin could extend toward the $100,000-$105,000 zone on momentum alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果当前的清算持续，比特币可能仅凭动能延伸至$100,000-$105,000 区间。</p>
</div><p>However, if funding cools and open interest resets, the price may consolidate. Past squeezes show sustainability depends on spot demand replacing leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果融资降温且未平仓合约重置，价格可能会整合。过去的挤压显示，持续性依赖于现货需求取代杠杆。</p>
</div><h2><strong>OG supply pullback signals…</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>OG 供应回撤信号…</strong></h2>
</div><p>OG Bitcoin Holders are no longer distributing at the pace seen earlier in this cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OG 比特币持有者不再以本周期早期的速度进行分发。</p>
</div><p>STXO data from coins dormant for over five years shows a clear slowdown in long-term holder spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自超过五年未动用的币的 STXO 数据表明，长期持有者的支出明显放缓。</p>
</div><p>Data from CryptoQuant confirms that OGs were highly active into 2024, using institutional demand and government buying as ideal exit liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 的数据确认，OG 在 2024 年期间非常活跃，利用机构需求和政府购买作为理想的退出流动性。</p>
</div><p>However, that behavior has shifted. Earlier in the cycle, OG spending peaked near 3,800 BTC, then cooled to 3,200 BTC, followed by 2,200 BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种行为已经发生了变化。在周期早期，OG 支出在接近 3,800 BTC 时达到峰值，随后降至 3,200 BTC，再到 2,200 BTC。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>In the short term, lighter OG selling reduces overhead supply and supports price stability. On the contrary, in the long term, this behavior signals conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期内，OG 的轻微卖出减少了上方供应，支持价格稳定。相反，从长期来看，这种行为则表明了信心。</p>
</div><p>Historically, OG restraint aligns with accumulation phases rather than late-cycle distribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，OG 的克制与积累阶段相一致，而不是晚周期的分发。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Whales hedge as retail commits: Who breaks first?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>鲸鱼对冲，散户入场：谁先崩溃？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The chart highlights a clear divergence. Whales first unwind their long exposure and then rotate into shorts, suggesting a deliberate shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表突显出明显的分歧。鲸鱼首先平掉他们的多头敞口，然后转向空头，表明了一种有意的转变。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, price remains elevated even as momentum fades. At the same time, leverage is quietly rebuilding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，尽管动能减弱，价格仍然保持在高位。与此同时，杠杆正在悄然重建。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these factors tilt risk to the downside. Whales react early because they see crowded positioning and late-cycle behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这些因素将风险倾向于下行。鲸鱼早早反应，因为他们看到拥挤的头寸和晚周期行为。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, OG Bitcoin holders are no longer distributing aggressively. That isolates organic selling pressure and leaves leverage as the main driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，OG 比特币持有者不再积极分发。这隔离了有机卖压，使杠杆成为主要驱动因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Retail traders often move in the opposite direction. They chase upside momentum, reacting to price rather than structure. As volatility expands, they tend to add long positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>散户交易者往往朝相反方向移动。他们追逐上涨动能，反应价格而非结构。随着波动性扩大，他们倾向于增加多头头寸。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, on‑chain data from Alphractal showed whales closing longs and flipping short as Bitcoin neared $69,000. Retail traders did the opposite, piling into leveraged longs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，来自 Alphractal 的链上数据表明，鲸鱼在比特币接近$69,000 时平掉多头并转向空头。散户交易者则相反，涌入杠杆多头。</p>
</div><p>Shortly after, Bitcoin corrected nearly 20%, dropping from $69,000 to $56,000 before stabilizing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不久之后，比特币修正了近 20%，从$69,000 跌至$56,000，然后稳定下来。</p>
</div><p>This setup points to a potential shakeout or cooling phase. If leverage unwinds, the price will likely retrace before any sustainable continuation can occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种设置指向潜在的震荡或降温阶段。如果杠杆解除，价格可能会回调，然后才能发生任何可持续的延续。</p>
</div><p>All in all, Bitcoin’s structure is clear as leverage, not spot demand, is driving momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，比特币的结构很清晰，因为动能是由杠杆驱动，而不是现货需求。</p>
</div><p>Short liquidations lifted the price, while OG selling slowed and whales turned defensive. This tightens supply but raises fragility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>空头清算推高了价格，而 OG 的卖出放缓，鲸鱼则变得防御性。这收紧了供应，但提高了脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, upside remains vulnerable. Sustainable gains require spot demand to replace leverage. Until then, volatility risk stays elevated, and any further extension remains exposed to a corrective reset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，上行仍然脆弱。可持续的收益需要现货需求取代杠杆。在此之前，波动风险保持高位，任何进一步的延伸都面临修正重置的风险。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最终思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Leverage now drives Bitcoin’s momentum, with short liquidations lifting price while spot demand remains secondary, increasing the risk of volatility-driven pullbacks.</em></li>
<li><em>Smart money is turning cautious, as whales hedge and OG holders slow selling, signaling tighter supply but a fragile rally unless spot buyers step in.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>杠杆现在驱动比特币的动能，空头清算推高价格，而现货需求仍然是次要的，增加了波动性驱动回调的风险。</em></li>
<li><em>聪明资金开始谨慎，鲸鱼对冲，OG 持有者减缓卖出，信号显示供应收紧，但除非现货买家介入，否则反弹脆弱。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特币：BTC 达到 10 万美元的道路可能依赖于杠杆而非需求的原因