<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home%20Depot_Cumberland.jpg/query-aXRvaz1hbGNJa2p4Rg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home%20Depot_Cumberland.jpg/query-aXRvaz1hbGNJa2p4Rg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：HomeDepot.com</em></p>
<p><strong>公司简介</strong></p>
<p>家得宝（Home Depot，HD）是全球最大的家居改善零售商，运营着一个主导的仓储式商店网络，并支持一个高度集成的数字平台。该公司服务于 DIY 消费者和专业承包商（“专业人士”），利用在采购、物流、私有品牌和供应商关系方面无与伦比的规模。家得宝的规模、运营效率和品牌实力创造了持久的竞争优势，而其严格的资本配置则通过分红和回购支持持续的股东回报。尽管需求是周期性的，并与住房和装修活动相关，但 HD 在经济周期中产生强劲而稳定的自由现金流。</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>现金流折现分析</strong></p>
<p><strong>输入</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>折现率：</strong> 10%</li>
<li><strong>终值增长率：</strong> 3%</li>
<li><strong>加权平均资本成本（WACC）：</strong> 10%</li>
</ul>
<hr/>
<p><strong>预测自由现金流</strong></p>
<p>2025 年：<strong>$14.5</strong> → 现值：<strong>$13.2</strong></p>
<p>2026 年：<strong>$15.0</strong> → 现值：<strong>$12.4</strong></p>
<p>2027 年：<strong>$15.5</strong> → 现值：<strong>$11.6</strong></p>
<p>2028 年：<strong>$16.0</strong> → 现值：<strong>$10.9</strong></p>
<p>2029 年：<strong>$16.5</strong> → 现值：<strong>$10.3</strong></p>
<p>自由现金流现值总和 = $58.4B</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>终值计算</strong></p>
<p><strong>终值计算</strong></p>
<p>使用永续增长模型，2029 年自由现金流 = <strong>$16.5B</strong>：</p>
<p>终值 = (16.5 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$242.8B</strong></p>
<p>终值的现值：</p>
<p>现值（终值）= 242.8 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$150.8B</strong></p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>企业价值</strong></p>
<p>企业价值 = $58.4B + $150.8B = $209.2B</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>净债务</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>现金及现金等价物：</strong> 约 $1.7B</li>
<li><strong>总债务：</strong> 约 $65.4B</li>
</ul>
<p>净债务 ≈ $63.7B</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>股权价值及每股价值</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>股权价值：</strong> $209.2B − $63.7B = <strong>$145.5B</strong></li>
<li><strong>流通股数：</strong> 约 0.995B</li>
</ul>
<p>每股内在价值 ≈ $146</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>结论</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>现金流折现价值：约 $146</li>
<li>当前价格：约 $375</li>
<li>安全边际：–61%</li>
</ul>
<p>家得宝仍然是一家高质量、现金生成的零售特许经营，具有无与伦比的家居改善规模、强大的专业人士曝光率和一流的运营效率。其在住房周期中产生可观自由现金流的能力支持持续的分红和股票回购，增强了其作为长期复合增长者的吸引力。</p>
<p>然而，在使用 10% 的折现率和 3% 的终值增长的标准化现金流折现框架下，HD 当前的市场价格暗示的预期远高于保守的内在价值。该估值假设住房活动的持续再加速、利润率扩张或资本回报超过该模型中所包含的内容。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者而言，家得宝继续代表一家具有持久业务、强大竞争优势和严格资本配置的公司。然而，在今天的估值下，该股票提供的 <strong>安全边际有限</strong>，这表明未来的回报可能更多地依赖于业务执行而非市盈率扩张。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
<p>Bill Nygren：上涨的东西必然会下跌！</p>
<p>深度价值生物防御制药公司 – SIGA Technologies Inc.</p>
<p>Domino’s Pizza Inc：我们对内在价值的计算</p>

家得宝

<p>家得宝公司被分析其内在价值，得出的折现现金流（DCF）价值约为每股 146 美元，而当前价格约为 375 美元，显示出 61% 的安全边际。该公司是家居改善零售的领导者，展现出强劲的现金流和竞争优势。然而，高市场价格表明市场预期超过保守的内在价值，依赖于未来的住房活动和利润扩张。长期投资者在当前估值下可能会发现安全性有限，强调业务执行而非多重扩张以获取未来回报</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home Depot_Cumberland.jpg/query-aXRvaz1hbGNJa2p4Rg" alt="" original-src="https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home%20Depot_Cumberland.jpg?itok=alcIkjxF"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: HomeDepot.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：HomeDepot.com</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Profile</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>公司简介</strong></p>
</div><p>The Home Depot (HD) is the world’s largest home improvement retailer, operating a dominant network of warehouse-style stores supported by a highly integrated digital platform. The company serves both do-it-yourself (DIY) consumers and professional contractors (“Pros”), leveraging unmatched scale in sourcing, logistics, private-label brands, and supplier relationships. Home Depot’s size, operational efficiency, and brand strength create durable competitive advantages, while its disciplined capital allocation supports consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. Although demand is cyclical and tied to housing and renovation activity, HD generates strong and resilient free cash flow across economic cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝（Home Depot，HD）是全球最大的家居改善零售商，运营着一个主导的仓储式商店网络，并支持一个高度集成的数字平台。该公司服务于 DIY 消费者和专业承包商（“专业人士”），利用在采购、物流、私有品牌和供应商关系方面无与伦比的规模。家得宝的规模、运营效率和品牌实力创造了持久的竞争优势，而其严格的资本配置则通过分红和回购支持持续的股东回报。尽管需求是周期性的，并与住房和装修活动相关，但 HD 在经济周期中产生强劲而稳定的自由现金流。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>DCF Analysis</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>现金流折现分析</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Inputs</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>输入</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Discount Rate:</strong> 10%</li>
<li><strong>Terminal Growth Rate:</strong> 3%</li>
<li><strong>WACC:</strong> 10%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>折现率：</strong> 10%</li>
<li><strong>终值增长率：</strong> 3%</li>
<li><strong>加权平均资本成本（WACC）：</strong> 10%</li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Forecasted Free Cash Flows</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>预测自由现金流</strong></p>
</div><p>2025: <strong>$14.5</strong> → PV: <strong>$13.2</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年：<strong>$14.5</strong> → 现值：<strong>$13.2</strong></p>
</div><p>2026: <strong>$15.0</strong> → PV: <strong>$12.4</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年：<strong>$15.0</strong> → 现值：<strong>$12.4</strong></p>
</div><p>2027: <strong>$15.5</strong> → PV: <strong>$11.6</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2027 年：<strong>$15.5</strong> → 现值：<strong>$11.6</strong></p>
</div><p>2028: <strong>$16.0</strong> → PV: <strong>$10.9</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2028 年：<strong>$16.0</strong> → 现值：<strong>$10.9</strong></p>
</div><p>2029: <strong>$16.5</strong> → PV: <strong>$10.3</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2029 年：<strong>$16.5</strong> → 现值：<strong>$10.3</strong></p>
</div><p>Total Present Value of FCFs = $58.4B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自由现金流现值总和 = $58.4B</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Terminal Value Calculation</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>终值计算</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Terminal Value Calculation</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>终值计算</strong></p>
</div><p>Using the perpetuity growth model with 2029 FCF = <strong>$16.5B</strong>:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用永续增长模型，2029 年自由现金流 = <strong>$16.5B</strong>：</p>
</div><p>TV = (16.5 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$242.8B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>终值 = (16.5 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$242.8B</strong></p>
</div><p>Present Value of Terminal Value:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>终值的现值：</p>
</div><p>PV(TV) = 242.8 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$150.8B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现值（终值）= 242.8 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$150.8B</strong></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Enterprise Value</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>企业价值</strong></p>
</div><p>Enterprise Value = $58.4B + $150.8B = $209.2B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业价值 = $58.4B + $150.8B = $209.2B</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Net Debt</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>净债务</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Cash &amp; Equivalents:</strong> ~$1.7B</li>
<li><strong>Total Debt:</strong> ~$65.4B</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>现金及现金等价物：</strong> 约 $1.7B</li>
<li><strong>总债务：</strong> 约 $65.4B</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Net Debt ≈ $63.7B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净债务 ≈ $63.7B</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Equity Value &amp; Per-Share Value</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>股权价值及每股价值</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Equity Value:</strong> $209.2B − $63.7B = <strong>$145.5B</strong></li>
<li><strong>Shares Outstanding:</strong> ~0.995B</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>股权价值：</strong> $209.2B − $63.7B = <strong>$145.5B</strong></li>
<li><strong>流通股数：</strong> 约 0.995B</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Intrinsic Value per Share ≈ $146</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每股内在价值 ≈ $146</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结论</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>DCF Value: ~$146</li>
<li>Current Price: ~$375</li>
<li>Margin of Safety: –61%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>现金流折现价值：约 $146</li>
<li>当前价格：约 $375</li>
<li>安全边际：–61%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Home Depot remains a high-quality, cash-generative retail franchise with unmatched scale in home improvement, strong Pro exposure, and best-in-class operating efficiency. Its ability to generate substantial free cash flow through housing cycles supports continued dividends and share repurchases, reinforcing its appeal as a long-term compounder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝仍然是一家高质量、现金生成的零售特许经营，具有无与伦比的家居改善规模、强大的专业人士曝光率和一流的运营效率。其在住房周期中产生可观自由现金流的能力支持持续的分红和股票回购，增强了其作为长期复合增长者的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>However, under a standardized DCF framework using a 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth, HD’s current market price implies expectations well above conservative intrinsic value. The valuation assumes a sustained reacceleration in housing activity, margin expansion, or capital returns that exceed what is embedded in this model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在使用 10% 的折现率和 3% 的终值增长的标准化现金流折现框架下，HD 当前的市场价格暗示的预期远高于保守的内在价值。该估值假设住房活动的持续再加速、利润率扩张或资本回报超过该模型中所包含的内容。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, Home Depot continues to represent a durable business with strong competitive advantages and disciplined capital allocation. At today’s valuation, however, the stock offers <strong>limited margin of safety</strong>, suggesting that future returns are likely to be driven more by business execution than by multiple expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者而言，家得宝继续代表一家具有持久业务、强大竞争优势和严格资本配置的公司。然而，在今天的估值下，该股票提供的 <strong>安全边际有限</strong>，这表明未来的回报可能更多地依赖于业务执行而非市盈率扩张。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
</div><p>Bill Nygren: What Goes Up Must Come Down!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bill Nygren：上涨的东西必然会下跌！</p>
</div><p>Deep Value Biodefense Pharmaceutical Company – SIGA Technologies Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深度价值生物防御制药公司 – SIGA Technologies Inc.</p>
</div><p>Domino’s Pizza Inc: Our Calculation Of Intrinsic Value</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Domino’s Pizza Inc：我们对内在价值的计算</p>
</div>

家得宝公司：我们对其内在价值的计算