<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="540" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 – 布伦特原油现货价格走弱，而期货价差保持坚挺</strong></h3>
<p>在经历了五天的上涨后，油价昨日承受了显著压力，ICE 布伦特原油收盘下跌 4.15%。此次抛售发生在美国避免对伊朗采取立即行动的背景下，尽管该国正在进行抗议活动。最近几天，关于特朗普政府考虑军事干预的声音日益增多，引发了对伊朗供应以及波斯湾更广泛供应风险的担忧。与伊朗的任何升级都将引发对霍尔木兹海峡石油流动潜在中断的担忧，该海峡是约 2000 万桶/日的运输要道。</p>
<p>尽管风险有所缓解，但仍然相当显著，使市场在短期内保持紧张。然而，若美国在此期间没有采取任何干预措施，风险溢价将继续消退，使得更为看空的基本面占据主导。</p>
<p>尽管我们对市场保持看空的展望，但我们看到 ICE 布伦特原油近期期货价差表现强劲。尽管现货价格疲软，价差昨日仍相对坚挺。这表明现货市场可能存在一定的紧张，可能是由于哈萨克斯坦通过 CPC 终端的原油流量下降所致。</p>
<p>欧洲天然气市场昨日继续上涨。TTF 当天收盘上涨超过 4.2%，使市场回升至每兆瓦时 33 欧元以上。此次上涨是由于预计本月末欧洲大部分地区将出现另一波寒潮。同时，欧盟天然气储存量仍然低于正常水平，目前充满率不到 52%，而五年平均充满率为 67%。我们一直在警告市场可能出现的短期回补反弹，因为在冬季初期，基金在 TTF 中持有的空头头寸相当庞大。投资基金已经将其在 TTF 中的净空头从 12 月中旬的 92.76TWh 减少至目前的 55.14TWh。</p>
<h3><strong>农业 – 可可价格因磨碎量下降而下滑</strong></h3>
<p>可可价格昨日进一步承压，伦敦可可收盘下跌 2.3%。这主要是由于来自欧洲的磨碎数据低于预期。欧洲可可协会的数据表明，2025 年第四季度可可磨碎量同比下降 8.3%，降至 304.5 万吨，为 2013 年以来该时期的最低水平。这使得 2025 年的总磨碎量同比下降 6.1%。</p>
<p>印度国家合作糖厂联合会的数据表明，2025 年 10 月 1 日至 2026 年 1 月 15 日期间，印度的糖产量同比增长 21%，达到 1590 万吨。该期间内，工厂压榨了 176.4 万吨甘蔗，而去年为 148.4 万吨。甘蔗的平均糖回收率为 9%，而上个季节为 8.8%。与此同时，截至 1 月 15 日，约有 519 家工厂在进行压榨，略高于去年的 514 家。该组织重申了 2025/26 年度总糖产量的估计为 3150 万吨，考虑到转向乙醇的量。</p>
<p>在其月度更新中，国际谷物理事会（IGC）将 2025/26 年度全球小麦产量预测从 830 万吨上调至 842 万吨。消费预测从之前的 819 万吨上调至 823 万吨。因此，全球小麦期末库存预测从 275 万吨上调至 283 万吨。大豆的期末库存预测保持不变，为 77 万吨。最后，玉米的全球期末库存预测从 300 万吨上调至 305 万吨，原因是生产预测更强。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>利率快讯：英镑利率和美国 TIC 数据</p>
<p>波兰中央银行预计通胀下降，耐用品不再施加上行风险</p>
<p>欧元区工业生产上升</p>

<p>最新的商品报告显示，油价出现下跌，ICE 布伦特原油下跌 4.15%，原因是关于伊朗供应风险的紧张局势缓解。欧洲天然气市场因寒冷天气预报和更紧张的天然气储存水平而上涨。可可价格因研磨数据令人失望而下跌 2.3%，而印度的糖产量同比增长 21%。国际谷物理事会上调了全球小麦产量预测，同时由于生产预测更强，玉米期末库存估计也有所增加</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy – Brent flat price weakens while timespreads hold firmer</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 – 布伦特原油现货价格走弱，而期货价差保持坚挺</strong></h3>
</div><p>After five days of gains, oil prices came under significant pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 4.15% lower. The sell-off came as the US avoided taking immediate action against Iran amid ongoing protests in the country. There had been growing noise in recent days that the Trump administration was considering military intervention, raising concerns not only over Iranian supply, but broader risks to supply from the Persian Gulf. Any escalation with Iran will also raise concerns about potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint where around 20m b/d passes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了五天的上涨后，油价昨日承受了显著压力，ICE 布伦特原油收盘下跌 4.15%。此次抛售发生在美国避免对伊朗采取立即行动的背景下，尽管该国正在进行抗议活动。最近几天，关于特朗普政府考虑军事干预的声音日益增多，引发了对伊朗供应以及波斯湾更广泛供应风险的担忧。与伊朗的任何升级都将引发对霍尔木兹海峡石油流动潜在中断的担忧，该海峡是约 2000 万桶/日的运输要道。</p>
</div><p>While risks have eased somewhat, they remain significant, keeping the market nervous in the short term. However, the longer this goes on without any US intervention, the risk premium will continue to fade, allowing more bearish fundamentals to dominate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管风险有所缓解，但仍然相当显著，使市场在短期内保持紧张。然而，若美国在此期间没有采取任何干预措施，风险溢价将继续消退，使得更为看空的基本面占据主导。</p>
</div><p>While we maintain a bearish outlook for the market, we are seeing strength in the prompt ICE Brent timespread. The spread held up relatively well yesterday despite weakness in the flat price. This suggests some tightness in the spot market, likely due to a decline in Kazakh oil flows from the CPC terminal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管我们对市场保持看空的展望，但我们看到 ICE 布伦特原油近期期货价差表现强劲。尽管现货价格疲软，价差昨日仍相对坚挺。这表明现货市场可能存在一定的紧张，可能是由于哈萨克斯坦通过 CPC 终端的原油流量下降所致。</p>
</div><p>The European gas market continued to rally yesterday. TTF settled more than 4.2% higher on the day, taking the market back above EUR33/MWh. The move was driven by another cold snap forecast for large parts of Europe towards the end of this month. Meanwhile, EU gas storage remains tighter than usual, with it less than 52% full at the moment vs. a 5-year average of 67% full. We have been warning about the potential for a short-covering rally in the market, given the sizeable short position that funds held in TTF through the early part of winter. Investment funds have already reduced their net short in TTF from 92.76TWh in mid-December to 55.14TWh currently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲天然气市场昨日继续上涨。TTF 当天收盘上涨超过 4.2%，使市场回升至每兆瓦时 33 欧元以上。此次上涨是由于预计本月末欧洲大部分地区将出现另一波寒潮。同时，欧盟天然气储存量仍然低于正常水平，目前充满率不到 52%，而五年平均充满率为 67%。我们一直在警告市场可能出现的短期回补反弹，因为在冬季初期，基金在 TTF 中持有的空头头寸相当庞大。投资基金已经将其在 TTF 中的净空头从 12 月中旬的 92.76TWh 减少至目前的 55.14TWh。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Agriculture – Cocoa prices decline on weaker grindings</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>农业 – 可可价格因磨碎量下降而下滑</strong></h3>
</div><p>Cocoa prices came under further pressure yesterday, with London cocoa settling 2.3% lower on the day. This follows weaker-than-expected grinding data from Europe. Data from the European Cocoa Association shows that cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year on year to 304.5mt in 4Q25, the lowest for this period since 2013. This leaves total grindings for 2025 down 6.1% YoY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可可价格昨日进一步承压，伦敦可可收盘下跌 2.3%。这主要是由于来自欧洲的磨碎数据低于预期。欧洲可可协会的数据表明，2025 年第四季度可可磨碎量同比下降 8.3%，降至 304.5 万吨，为 2013 年以来该时期的最低水平。这使得 2025 年的总磨碎量同比下降 6.1%。</p>
</div><p>National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. data shows that sugar production in India jumped 21% YoY to 15.9mt between 1 Oct 2025 and 15 Jan 2026. Factories crushed 176.4mt of cane over the period compared to 148.4mt a year ago. The average sugar recovery from cane was 9% vs 8.8% in the last season. Meanwhile, around 519 mills were crushing as of 15 January, slightly up from 514 mills last year. The group reiterated its 2025/26 total sugar production estimate of 31.5mt, accounting for volumes diverted to ethanol.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度国家合作糖厂联合会的数据表明，2025 年 10 月 1 日至 2026 年 1 月 15 日期间，印度的糖产量同比增长 21%，达到 1590 万吨。该期间内，工厂压榨了 176.4 万吨甘蔗，而去年为 148.4 万吨。甘蔗的平均糖回收率为 9%，而上个季节为 8.8%。与此同时，截至 1 月 15 日，约有 519 家工厂在进行压榨，略高于去年的 514 家。该组织重申了 2025/26 年度总糖产量的估计为 3150 万吨，考虑到转向乙醇的量。</p>
</div><p>In its monthly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) increased its 2025/26 global wheat output forecasts from 830mt to 842mt. Consumption projections increased to 823mt from previous estimates of 819mt. As a result, global wheat ending stock estimates increased from 275mt to 283mt. For soybeans, ending stock estimates remain unchanged at 77mt. Finally, for corn, the council increased its global ending stocks estimate from 300mt to 305mt on stronger production forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其月度更新中，国际谷物理事会（IGC）将 2025/26 年度全球小麦产量预测从 830 万吨上调至 842 万吨。消费预测从之前的 819 万吨上调至 823 万吨。因此，全球小麦期末库存预测从 275 万吨上调至 283 万吨。大豆的期末库存预测保持不变，为 77 万吨。最后，玉米的全球期末库存预测从 300 万吨上调至 305 万吨，原因是生产预测更强。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Rates Spark: Sterling Rates And US TIC Data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率快讯：英镑利率和美国 TIC 数据</p>
</div><p>Polish Central Bank Sees Decline In Inflation As Durable And No Longer Stresses Upside Risks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰中央银行预计通胀下降，耐用品不再施加上行风险</p>
</div><p>Eurozone Industrial Production On The Rise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元区工业生产上升</p>
</div>

大宗商品动态：伊朗的供应风险有所缓解，但并未完全消失