<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p><em>美国的数据表现较好，使得美国利率和美元本周略有上升。对鲍威尔的美联储的攻击迄今对美元没有产生影响，而昨晚发布的美国 11 月 TIC 数据表明，外国投资者仍然非常乐意在去年底向美国投资组合资产注入资金。对美元的反对意见仍然需要付出努力</em></p>
<h3><strong>美元：保持稳定</strong></h3>
<p>美元本周在宏观因素的推动下略有上升。美国的数据表现较为强劲，例如零售销售和失业救济申请，而美联储的褐皮书则展示了经济温和扩张的前景，并且对就业市场没有立即威胁。投资者的反应是将美联储的终端利率在宽松周期中上调了约 5 个基点。这是自去年 10 月以来的 32 个基点的重新定价。作为回应，DXY 以非常低的波动性缓慢上升。</p>
<p>在一个安静的星期五，值得提及的是昨晚发布的 11 月美国财政部 TIC 数据。我们的利率同事在这里讨论债券活动。主要结论是外国投资者继续向美国资产市场注入资金。TIC 发布的数据集波动性较大，但从滚动的 12 个月平均来看，11 月外国对美国资产的净购买约为每月 1000 亿美元——相比之下，2024 年夏季约为 250 亿美元。11 月的数据因强劲的股票流入而显得尤为显著。大约 45% 的大型私营部门流入是股票。甚至外国官方部门也购买了 230 亿美元的股票。是的，看来金砖国家的官方集团仍在抛售国债，但这些流入被私营部门的流入所掩盖。</p>
<p>我们再次得出结论，去美元化将需要一些时间，如果美元在今年下跌，将主要受到美国利率下降和外国对美国资产的对冲增加的推动。</p>
<p>今天的数据日历相对安静，似乎没有理由反对温和上升的美元。在接下来的几周内，美元可能面临的一个威胁是，在 160 和 1500 附近对美元/日元和美元/韩元进行大量干预。美国财政部对这种活动表示支持。</p>
<p>在 99.45/50 以上，DXY 可能会继续缓慢向 100 靠近。</p>
<p><em>克里斯·特纳</em></p>
<h3><strong>欧元：作为套利资金货币</strong></h3>
<p>一个月期的欧元/美元波动率仍然徘徊在 5% 左右。大多数人认为，欧元/美元在短期内看起来相对区间波动。由于波动性较低，高收益和新兴市场货币受到需求，投资者似乎更倾向于以仅 2.00% 的成本（使用一个月的隐含收益率）从欧元中融资套利交易，而不是以约 3.55% 的成本从美元中融资。</p>
<p>以欧元融资套利可能被视为比以日元融资更低风险，因为美元/日元一个月的波动率为 8.5%，而日本央行可能随时介入，短暂将美元/日元压低 2-3%。</p>
<p>欧元区的数据日历看起来空荡荡的，欧元/美元可能在没有太多宣传的情况下向 1.1555/65 漂移。</p>
<p><em>克里斯·特纳</em></p>
<h3><strong>日元：许多变数</strong></h3>
<p>现在很难对美元/日元做出有信心的判断。似乎日本下议院将在下周解散，并将在 2 月 8 日举行快选。假设任何自民党的前景大幅改善都将对日元产生负面影响，因为这意味着更宽松的财政和货币政策将更受青睐和更可能。自民党什么情况下算是大幅改善？可能是增加 34 个席位，使自民党本身掌握简单多数。</p>
<p>然而，我们之前对日本政治的变化感到惊讶。现在前自民党联盟党（公明党）与主要反对党（立宪民主党）联合，反对派可能会提供更强的抵抗。如果自民党未能将高市民支持率转化为更多席位，可能会再次导致美元/日元下跌。</p>
<p>还有外汇干预的威胁，我们在本月的外汇讨论中提出了一个离奇的想法，即美联储和日本央行联合干预以出售美元/日元，这将是一个改变游戏规则的举措。可以说，美元/日元在下个月看起来是一个波动的故事，即使在 8.5% 的情况下，一个月交易的美元/日元波动率似乎也并不特别昂贵。</p>
<p><em>克里斯·特纳</em></p>
<h3><strong>波兰兹罗提：降息周期持续，所有选项仍在桌面上</strong></h3>
<p>波兰国家银行昨天的新闻发布会确认，尽管周三利率保持不变，但降息周期仍在继续。同时，行长保持了 2 月份会议的开放性，但并未排除可能会延长暂停，可能直到 4 月。这使得一系列情景仍然在桌面上，个别降息的时机并没有很高的确定性。</p>
<p>在新闻发布会上，我们听到终端利率可能为 3.50%，但也不能排除更低的数字。总体而言，情况对我们来说变化不大。我们预计通胀将继续支持进一步降息，但从行长的言辞中可以明显看出，我们还需要关注劳动力市场和工资的发展。目前，我们经济学家的预测保持不变——在 3 月、5 月和 9 月再降息三次至 3.25%，作为降息周期的结束。</p>
<p>市场对新闻发布会的反应偏鸽派，逆转了周三的鹰派举动。终端利率略微下调 2 个基点至 3.41%，我们可能会看到回到接近 3.30% 的之前低点。外汇市场反应不大，但昨天的新闻发布会给我们提供了一个预示，预计随着流动性回归市场，波兰兹罗提将相对疲软。目前，我们预计市场将测试 4.220，因为本周的波兰国家银行信息。</p>
<p><em>弗朗蒂塞克·塔博尔斯基</em></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
<p>商品供给：伊朗供应风险缓解，但尚未消失</p>
<p>利率快讯：英镑利率与美国 TIC 数据</p>
<p>波兰中央银行预计通胀下降，且不再强调上行风险</p>

<p>本周，由于经济数据强劲，美元略有上涨，外国对美国资产的投资保持强劲。11 月份的 TIC 数据显示，外国对美国资产的净购买平均每月达到 1000 亿美元，主要集中在股票方面。尽管关于去美元化的讨论仍在继续，但这一过程似乎进展缓慢。欧元被用于套利交易，而美元/日元市场受到日本即将发生的政治事件的影响。波兰国家银行继续其降息周期，未来的利率决策仍未确定</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1580519541857-b9b8e6da1471/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1580519541857-b9b8e6da1471?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p><em>Better US data has seen US rates and the dollar tick a little higher this week. The attack on Powell's Fed has had no impact on the dollar so far, and US November TIC data released last night showed that foreigners were still very happy to pour money into US portfolio assets late last year. The case against the dollar remains hard work</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美国的数据表现较好，使得美国利率和美元本周略有上升。对鲍威尔的美联储的攻击迄今对美元没有产生影响，而昨晚发布的美国 11 月 TIC 数据表明，外国投资者仍然非常乐意在去年底向美国投资组合资产注入资金。对美元的反对意见仍然需要付出努力</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>USD: Holding steady</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>美元：保持稳定</strong></h3>
</div><p>The dollar is drifting higher this week on probably what is best described as a macro move. US data has come in on the firmer side, e.g. retail sales and jobless claims, while the Fed's Beige Book presented a view of a gently expanding economy and no immediate threat to the jobs market. Investors have reacted by marking the Fed terminal rate for the easing cycle some 5bp higher this week. That's a 32bp re-rating from the lows seen last October. In response, DXY is edging higher in a very low volatility manner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元本周在宏观因素的推动下略有上升。美国的数据表现较为强劲，例如零售销售和失业救济申请，而美联储的褐皮书则展示了经济温和扩张的前景，并且对就业市场没有立即威胁。投资者的反应是将美联储的终端利率在宽松周期中上调了约 5 个基点。这是自去年 10 月以来的 32 个基点的重新定价。作为回应，DXY 以非常低的波动性缓慢上升。</p>
</div><p>On a quiet Friday, it is worth talking about the release last night of US Treasury TIC data for November. Our rate colleagues discuss the bond activity here. The main takeaway is that foreigners continue to pour money into US asset markets. The TIC release is a volatile data set, but looking at the rolling 12-month average, in November the net foreign purchase of US assets was around $100bn per month – compared to around $25bn in the summer of 2024. November's data was notable for strong flows into equities. Around 45% of the large private sector inflow was in equities. And even the foreign official sector bought $23bn of equities. Yes, it looks like the BRICS official grouping is still offloading Treasuries, but these flows are being dwarfed by the private sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一个安静的星期五，值得提及的是昨晚发布的 11 月美国财政部 TIC 数据。我们的利率同事在这里讨论债券活动。主要结论是外国投资者继续向美国资产市场注入资金。TIC 发布的数据集波动性较大，但从滚动的 12 个月平均来看，11 月外国对美国资产的净购买约为每月 1000 亿美元——相比之下，2024 年夏季约为 250 亿美元。11 月的数据因强劲的股票流入而显得尤为显著。大约 45% 的大型私营部门流入是股票。甚至外国官方部门也购买了 230 亿美元的股票。是的，看来金砖国家的官方集团仍在抛售国债，但这些流入被私营部门的流入所掩盖。</p>
</div><p>We would again conclude that de-dollarisation is going to take some time and that if the dollar is to come lower this year, it will be driven by lower US rates and increased foreign hedging of US assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们再次得出结论，去美元化将需要一些时间，如果美元在今年下跌，将主要受到美国利率下降和外国对美国资产的对冲增加的推动。</p>
</div><p>The data calendar is relatively quiet today, and there seems to be no reason to argue with a gently bid dollar. One possible threat to the dollar over the next couple of weeks could come from heavy intervention to sell both USD/JPY and USD/KRW near 160 and 1500 respectively. The US Treasury is sounding supportive of such activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的数据日历相对安静，似乎没有理由反对温和上升的美元。在接下来的几周内，美元可能面临的一个威胁是，在 160 和 1500 附近对美元/日元和美元/韩元进行大量干预。美国财政部对这种活动表示支持。</p>
</div><p>Above 99.45/50, DXY can probably continue to grind towards 100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 99.45/50 以上，DXY 可能会继续缓慢向 100 靠近。</p>
</div><p><em>Chris Turner</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>克里斯·特纳</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>EUR: Used as a funding currency for carry</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>欧元：作为套利资金货币</strong></h3>
</div><p>One-month traded EUR/USD volatility continues to languish near 5%. And most are concluding that EUR/USD looks pretty range-bound in the near term. With volatility low, and high-yield and emerging market currencies in demand, it seems investors are preferring to fund carry trades out of the euro at a cost of just 2.00% (using the one-month implied yield) rather than dollars at around 3.55%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个月期的欧元/美元波动率仍然徘徊在 5% 左右。大多数人认为，欧元/美元在短期内看起来相对区间波动。由于波动性较低，高收益和新兴市场货币受到需求，投资者似乎更倾向于以仅 2.00% 的成本（使用一个月的隐含收益率）从欧元中融资套利交易，而不是以约 3.55% 的成本从美元中融资。</p>
</div><p>Funding carry out of the euro may well be seen as less risky than funding out of the yen, where USD/JPY one-month volatility trades at 8.5% and the Bank of Japan could come in any day now and briefly drive USD/JPY 2-3% lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以欧元融资套利可能被视为比以日元融资更低风险，因为美元/日元一个月的波动率为 8.5%，而日本央行可能随时介入，短暂将美元/日元压低 2-3%。</p>
</div><p>The eurozone data calendar looks bare and EUR/USD could drift towards 1.1555/65 without much fanfare.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元区的数据日历看起来空荡荡的，欧元/美元可能在没有太多宣传的情况下向 1.1555/65 漂移。</p>
</div><p><em>Chris Turner</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>克里斯·特纳</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>JPY: Many moving parts</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>日元：许多变数</strong></h3>
</div><p>It is hard to have a conviction call on USD/JPY right now. It seems the Japanese lower house will be dissolved next week and a snap election will be held on 8 February. The playbook assumes that any big improvement in the LDP's fortunes is a yen-negative on the view that looser fiscal and monetary policy will be favoured and more likely. What constitutes a big improvement for the LDP? Probably a 34-seat gain such that the LDP party itself commands a simple majority.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在很难对美元/日元做出有信心的判断。似乎日本下议院将在下周解散，并将在 2 月 8 日举行快选。假设任何自民党的前景大幅改善都将对日元产生负面影响，因为这意味着更宽松的财政和货币政策将更受青睐和更可能。自民党什么情况下算是大幅改善？可能是增加 34 个席位，使自民党本身掌握简单多数。</p>
</div><p>However, we have all been surprised by Japanese politics before. And there is little concern that now the former LDP coalition party (Komeito) has teamed up with the main opposition party (CDP), the opposition could offer stiffer resistance. An LDP failure to convert PM Takaichi's strong popularity ratings into more seats could end up sending USD/JPY lower again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我们之前对日本政治的变化感到惊讶。现在前自民党联盟党（公明党）与主要反对党（立宪民主党）联合，反对派可能会提供更强的抵抗。如果自民党未能将高市民支持率转化为更多席位，可能会再次导致美元/日元下跌。</p>
</div><p>There's also the FX intervention threat, and one outlandish idea we presented in this month's FX Talking was that of joint Fed-BoJ intervention to sell USD/JPY, which would be a game-changer. Suffice to say that USD/JPY looks like a volatile story over the next month and that even at 8.5%, one-month traded USD/JPY volatility does not seem especially expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有外汇干预的威胁，我们在本月的外汇讨论中提出了一个离奇的想法，即美联储和日本央行联合干预以出售美元/日元，这将是一个改变游戏规则的举措。可以说，美元/日元在下个月看起来是一个波动的故事，即使在 8.5% 的情况下，一个月交易的美元/日元波动率似乎也并不特别昂贵。</p>
</div><p><em>Chris Turner</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>克里斯·特纳</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>PLN: The cutting cycle continues and all options remain on the table</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>波兰兹罗提：降息周期持续，所有选项仍在桌面上</strong></h3>
</div><p>Yesterday's press conference by the National Bank of Poland confirmed that the cutting cycle continues despite the fact that rates remained unchanged on Wednesday. At the same time, the governor kept the February meeting open but did not rule out a longer pause, possibly until April. This leaves a whole range of scenarios on the table and conviction on the timing of individual rate cuts is not high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰国家银行昨天的新闻发布会确认，尽管周三利率保持不变，但降息周期仍在继续。同时，行长保持了 2 月份会议的开放性，但并未排除可能会延长暂停，可能直到 4 月。这使得一系列情景仍然在桌面上，个别降息的时机并没有很高的确定性。</p>
</div><p>During the press conference, we heard that the terminal rate could be 3.50%, but a lower number cannot be ruled out either. Overall, the picture has not changed much for us. We expect that inflation will continue to support further rate cuts, but it is clear from the governor's rhetoric that we also need to monitor the labour market and wage developments. For now, our economists' forecast remains unchanged – three more rate cuts in March, May and September to 3.25%, as the end of the cutting cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新闻发布会上，我们听到终端利率可能为 3.50%，但也不能排除更低的数字。总体而言，情况对我们来说变化不大。我们预计通胀将继续支持进一步降息，但从行长的言辞中可以明显看出，我们还需要关注劳动力市场和工资的发展。目前，我们经济学家的预测保持不变——在 3 月、5 月和 9 月再降息三次至 3.25%，作为降息周期的结束。</p>
</div><p>The market reacted dovishly to the press conference and reversed Wednesday's hawkish move. The terminal rate was priced slightly down by 2bp to 3.41%, and we will probably see a return to previous lows near 3.30%. FX was not very reactive, but yesterday's press conference gives us an indication to expect a rather weaker PLN as liquidity returns to the market. For now, we expect the market to test 4.220 due to this week's NBP message.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对新闻发布会的反应偏鸽派，逆转了周三的鹰派举动。终端利率略微下调 2 个基点至 3.41%，我们可能会看到回到接近 3.30% 的之前低点。外汇市场反应不大，但昨天的新闻发布会给我们提供了一个预示，预计随着流动性回归市场，波兰兹罗提将相对疲软。目前，我们预计市场将测试 4.220，因为本周的波兰国家银行信息。</p>
</div><p><em>Frantisek Taborsky</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>弗朗蒂塞克·塔博尔斯基</em></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
</div><p>The Commodities Feed: Iranian Supply Risks Ease, But Have Not Disappeared</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品供给：伊朗供应风险缓解，但尚未消失</p>
</div><p>Rates Spark: Sterling Rates And US TIC Data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率快讯：英镑利率与美国 TIC 数据</p>
</div><p>Polish Central Bank Sees Decline In Inflation As Durable And No Longer Stresses Upside Risks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰中央银行预计通胀下降，且不再强调上行风险</p>
</div>

去美元化的趋势依然难以捉摸