<p>作者：Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon 来源：Tiger Research 翻译：单欧巴，金色财经</p><p>本报告由 Tiger Research 撰写，呈现我们对 2026 年第一季度比特币的展望，目标价格为 185,500 美元。</p><h2 id="otprfc7br">关键要点</h2><ol><li>稳健的宏观环境，向上动能放缓：美联储的降息和 M2 货币供应增长稳步推进，但 45.7 亿美元的 ETF 流出影响了短期趋势。CLARITY 法案预计将吸引大型银行。</li></ol><h2 id="6u68c4u5j">宏观经济宽松持续，市场反弹减弱</h2><p>比特币目前交易价格约为 96,000 美元，比 2025 年 10 月 23 日发布的上一份报告下降了 12%。尽管如此，围绕比特币的宏观经济环境依然强劲。</p><p>美联储继续维持宽松政策立场。2025 年 9 月至 12 月期间，美联储三次降息，每次降幅为 25 个基点，维持当前基准利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的区间。12 月发布的点阵图显示，预计到 2026 年底利率将降至 3.4%。今年大幅降息 50 个基点或更多的可能性较低。然而，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将在今年 5 月结束，特朗普政府可能会任命一位更加鸽派的继任者，从而确保宽松货币政策趋势的延续。尽管宏观经济环境趋向宽松，但机构投资者的入市意愿已降温。2025 年 11 月和 12 月，现货比特币 ETF 录得 45.7 亿美元的资金流出，创下该产品推出以来单月最大流出。全年净资本流入总额为 214 亿美元，比去年减少 39%，去年为 352 亿美元。1 月份的资产再平衡推动了资金流入，但这一反弹的可持续性仍有待观察。同时，MicroStrategy（持有 673,783 个比特币，占流通供应的 3.2%）、Metaplanet 和 Mara 等公司继续增加其比特币持有量。CLARITY 法案作为政策催化剂：在机构需求停滞的背景下，监管政策的推进成为潜在的市场驱动因素。美国众议院通过的 CLARITY 法案明确了证券交易委员会（SEC）与商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）之间的管辖权划分，同时允许银行提供数字资产保管和质押服务。该法案还赋予 CFTC 对数字商品现货市场的监管权，为交易所和经纪商的合规运营提供了明确的法律框架。美国参议院银行委员会定于 1 月 15 日审议该法案。如果法案通过，预计将吸引之前犹豫不决的传统金融机构进入市场。充足的市场流动性，比特币表现滞后除了监管进展，流动性是影响市场的另一个关键变量。2024 年第四季度，全球 M2 货币供应量达到历史最高水平，并仍在上升趋势中。历史上，比特币价格走势通常领先流动性周期，往往在 M2 达到峰值之前启动上升趋势，而在流动性峰值期间则主要处于整合阶段。目前的指标表明，市场流动性可能进一步扩大，这表明比特币仍有上行潜力。由于比特币提前反映了流动性宽松的预期，可能会吸引资金流入。此外，如果股市估值过高，部分资金可能会转向比特币市场。宏观经济调整系数已降低至 25%，而长期前景依然强劲。整体宏观经济趋势与上一季度相比基本未变，降息和流动性扩张的总体方向依然明确。然而，考虑到机构资金流入放缓、美联储领导层可能的变化以及地缘政治风险加剧等因素，我们已将宏观经济调整系数从 35% 下调至 25%。尽管有所降低，25% 的正向调整仍然传递出积极信号。我们认为，监管政策的推进和 M2 货币供应的持续扩张将支持比特币的中长期上升趋势，这一核心观点保持不变。支撑位：$84,000；阻力位：$98,000。除了宏观经济因素，链上指标也释放出相应信号。在 2025 年 11 月的市场调整中，抄底行为集中在$84,000 价格水平，形成了明确的支撑区间。比特币价格自此反弹至该区间之上。$98,000 价格水平对应短期持有者的平均持有成本，构成短期心理阻力位。链上指标显示市场情绪正在从短期恐慌转向中性区间。关键市场指标如 MVRV-Z 指标（1.25）、未实现净利润率（NUPL，0.39）和实现利润/损失率（aSOPR，1.00）均已脱离被低估区间，进入均衡估值区间。考虑到当前市场情绪，因恐慌性抛售驱动的大幅反弹的可能性较低，但当前市场结构仍然提供了盈利潜力。结合前面提到的宏观经济环境和监管进展，数据模型显示比特币中长期价格上涨的逻辑依然有效。当前市场结构与之前周期相比发生了显著变化。机构和长期资本的比例增加，降低了以散户投资者为主导的恐慌性抛售的可能性。近期市场回调主要通过逐步的资产再平衡过程完成。尽管短期市场波动性将持续，但链上指标和资金流动趋势表明比特币的整体长期上升趋势仍然完好无损。</p><h3 id="f07f4z4wq">目标价格下调至$185,500，乐观展望不变</h3><p>根据我们的 TVM 估值框架，我们对 2026 年第一季度市场的计算得出比特币的中性基准估值为$145,000，低于我们之前报告中的$154,000。我们将目标价格修订为$185,500，基本调整为 0%，宏观调整为 25%。</p><p>我们已将基本调整从-2% 提高至 0%。尽管比特币网络活动与上一季度相比基本持平，但市场对 BTCFi 生态系统的重新关注在一定程度上抵消了多头和空头的极端信号。</p><p>相反，我们已将宏观调整从 35% 降低至 25%。</p><p>尽管利率下调预期、M2 扩张以及《透明法案》的潜在通过等因素继续支持市场，但机构资金流入放缓和地缘政治不确定性上升使得我们需要采取更为保守的估值方法。这一目标价格的下调不应被解读为看跌信号。即使在调整后，估值模型仍然显示比特币从当前价格来看大约有 100% 的上涨潜力。基准价格的下调主要反映了短期市场波动的影响，而比特币的内在价值在中长期内仍然呈上升趋势。最近的价格修正是市场健康的再平衡过程，比特币的中长期看涨趋势依然不变。</p>

<p>Tiger Research 发布的 2026 年第一季度比特币估值报告将比特币的目标价格定为 185,500 美元。尽管当前交易价格为 96,000 美元，比上一份报告下降了 12%，但宏观经济环境依然强劲，联邦储备的降息和 M2 货币供应量的增长为此提供了支持。报告强调，ETF 资金流出显著达到 45.7 亿美元，机构投资者的兴趣有所降温。CLARITY 法案预计将吸引传统金融机构，而流动性扩张可能支持比特币的长期上升趋势。关键支撑位和阻力位分别为 84,000 美元和 98,000 美元</p>

<p>Authors: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon Source: Tiger Research Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon 来源：Tiger Research 翻译：单欧巴，金色财经</p>
</div><p>This report, written by Tiger Research, presents our outlook for Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026, with a target price of $185,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本报告由 Tiger Research 撰写，呈现我们对 2026 年第一季度比特币的展望，目标价格为 185,500 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Key Takeaways</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键要点</h2>
</div><ol>
<li>A solid macro environment, with a slowdown in the upward momentum: The Fed's interest rate cuts and M2 money supply growth are progressing steadily, but $4.57 billion in ETF outflows have impacted short-term trends. The CLARITY Act is expected to attract large banks.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>稳健的宏观环境，向上动能放缓：美联储的降息和 M2 货币供应增长稳步推进，但 45.7 亿美元的 ETF 流出影响了短期趋势。CLARITY 法案预计将吸引大型银行。</li>
</ol>
</div><h2>Macroeconomic easing continues, market rally weakens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>宏观经济宽松持续，市场反弹减弱</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,000, down 12% from the previous report published on October 23, 2025. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic environment surrounding Bitcoin remains robust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币目前交易价格约为 96,000 美元，比 2025 年 10 月 23 日发布的上一份报告下降了 12%。尽管如此，围绕比特币的宏观经济环境依然强劲。</p>
</div><h2>The Federal Reserve continues its accommodative policy stance. Between September and December 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, each time by 25 basis points, maintaining the current benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The dot plot released in December shows that interest rates are expected to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026. The likelihood of a significant rate cut of 50 basis points or more this year is low. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end this May, and the Trump administration may appoint a more dovish successor, which will ensure the continuation of the loose monetary policy trend. Despite the shift towards a looser macroeconomic environment, institutional investors' willingness to enter the market has cooled. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $4.57 billion in outflows in November and December 2025, marking the largest single-month outflow since the product's inception. Net capital inflows for the year totaled $21.4 billion, a 39% decrease from $35.2 billion last year. Asset rebalancing in January boosted inflows, but the sustainability of this rebound remains to be seen. Meanwhile, companies such as MicroStrategy (holding 673,783 Bitcoins, representing 3.2% of the circulating supply), Metaplanet, and Mara continued to increase their Bitcoin holdings. The CLARITY Act as a Policy Catalyst: Against the backdrop of stagnant institutional demand, the advancement of regulatory policies has become a potential market driver. The CLARITY Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, clarifies the division of jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while allowing banks to provide digital asset custody and staking services. The act also grants the CFTC regulatory authority over the digital commodity spot market, providing a clear legal framework for the compliant operation of exchanges and brokers. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the bill on January 15. If the bill passes, it is expected to attract previously hesitant traditional financial institutions to enter the market. Ample Market Liquidity, Bitcoin Lagging Performance Besides regulatory progress, liquidity is another key variable affecting the market. Global M2 money supply reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024 and is still on an upward trend. Historically, Bitcoin price movements typically lead liquidity cycles, often initiating an upward trend before M2 reaches its peak, while consolidation is the main phase during liquidity peaks. Current indicators suggest that market liquidity is likely to expand further, indicating that Bitcoin still has upward potential. As Bitcoin reflects expectations of looser liquidity in advance, it may attract capital inflows. Furthermore, if stock market valuations are too high, some capital may shift to the Bitcoin market. The macroeconomic adjustment coefficient has been lowered to 25%, while the long-term outlook remains robust. The overall macroeconomic trend remains fundamentally unchanged compared to the previous quarter, with the general direction of interest rate cuts and liquidity expansion still clear. However, considering factors such as slowing institutional fund inflows, potential changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical risks, we have lowered the macroeconomic adjustment coefficient from 35% to 25%. Despite the reduction, a positive adjustment of 25% still sends a positive signal. We believe that the advancement of regulatory policies and the continued expansion of M2 money supply will support the medium- to long-term upward trend of Bitcoin, and this core view remains unchanged. Support level: $84,000; Resistance level: $98,000. Beyond the macroeconomic factors, on-chain indicators are also releasing corresponding signals. During the market correction in November 2025, bargain hunting concentrated around the $84,000 price level, forming a clear support zone. Bitcoin's price has since rebounded above this zone. The $98,000 price level corresponds to the average holding cost of short-term holders, constituting a short-term psychological resistance level. On-chain indicators show that market sentiment is transitioning from short-term panic to a neutral range. Key market indicators such as the MVRV-Z metric (1.25), Unrealized Net Profit Margin (NUPL, 0.39), and Realized Profit/Loss Margin (aSOPR, 1.00) have all moved out of the undervalued range and into the equilibrium valuation range. While the probability of a significant rebound driven by panic selling is low given the current market sentiment, the current market structure still offers profit potential. Combined with the macroeconomic environment and regulatory developments mentioned earlier, the data model shows that the logic for Bitcoin's medium- to long-term price increase remains valid. The current market structure has changed significantly compared to previous cycles. The increased proportion of institutional and long-term capital has reduced the likelihood of panic selling previously dominated by retail investors. Recent market pullbacks have been largely completed through a gradual asset rebalancing process. Although short-term market volatility will persist, on-chain indicators and fund flow trends suggest that the overall long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains intact.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储继续维持宽松政策立场。2025 年 9 月至 12 月期间，美联储三次降息，每次降幅为 25 个基点，维持当前基准利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的区间。12 月发布的点阵图显示，预计到 2026 年底利率将降至 3.4%。今年大幅降息 50 个基点或更多的可能性较低。然而，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将在今年 5 月结束，特朗普政府可能会任命一位更加鸽派的继任者，从而确保宽松货币政策趋势的延续。尽管宏观经济环境趋向宽松，但机构投资者的入市意愿已降温。2025 年 11 月和 12 月，现货比特币 ETF 录得 45.7 亿美元的资金流出，创下该产品推出以来单月最大流出。全年净资本流入总额为 214 亿美元，比去年减少 39%，去年为 352 亿美元。1 月份的资产再平衡推动了资金流入，但这一反弹的可持续性仍有待观察。同时，MicroStrategy（持有 673,783 个比特币，占流通供应的 3.2%）、Metaplanet 和 Mara 等公司继续增加其比特币持有量。CLARITY 法案作为政策催化剂：在机构需求停滞的背景下，监管政策的推进成为潜在的市场驱动因素。美国众议院通过的 CLARITY 法案明确了证券交易委员会（SEC）与商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）之间的管辖权划分，同时允许银行提供数字资产保管和质押服务。该法案还赋予 CFTC 对数字商品现货市场的监管权，为交易所和经纪商的合规运营提供了明确的法律框架。美国参议院银行委员会定于 1 月 15 日审议该法案。如果法案通过，预计将吸引之前犹豫不决的传统金融机构进入市场。充足的市场流动性，比特币表现滞后除了监管进展，流动性是影响市场的另一个关键变量。2024 年第四季度，全球 M2 货币供应量达到历史最高水平，并仍在上升趋势中。历史上，比特币价格走势通常领先流动性周期，往往在 M2 达到峰值之前启动上升趋势，而在流动性峰值期间则主要处于整合阶段。目前的指标表明，市场流动性可能进一步扩大，这表明比特币仍有上行潜力。由于比特币提前反映了流动性宽松的预期，可能会吸引资金流入。此外，如果股市估值过高，部分资金可能会转向比特币市场。宏观经济调整系数已降低至 25%，而长期前景依然强劲。整体宏观经济趋势与上一季度相比基本未变，降息和流动性扩张的总体方向依然明确。然而，考虑到机构资金流入放缓、美联储领导层可能的变化以及地缘政治风险加剧等因素，我们已将宏观经济调整系数从 35% 下调至 25%。尽管有所降低，25% 的正向调整仍然传递出积极信号。我们认为，监管政策的推进和 M2 货币供应的持续扩张将支持比特币的中长期上升趋势，这一核心观点保持不变。支撑位：$84,000；阻力位：$98,000。除了宏观经济因素，链上指标也释放出相应信号。在 2025 年 11 月的市场调整中，抄底行为集中在$84,000 价格水平，形成了明确的支撑区间。比特币价格自此反弹至该区间之上。$98,000 价格水平对应短期持有者的平均持有成本，构成短期心理阻力位。链上指标显示市场情绪正在从短期恐慌转向中性区间。关键市场指标如 MVRV-Z 指标（1.25）、未实现净利润率（NUPL，0.39）和实现利润/损失率（aSOPR，1.00）均已脱离被低估区间，进入均衡估值区间。考虑到当前市场情绪，因恐慌性抛售驱动的大幅反弹的可能性较低，但当前市场结构仍然提供了盈利潜力。结合前面提到的宏观经济环境和监管进展，数据模型显示比特币中长期价格上涨的逻辑依然有效。当前市场结构与之前周期相比发生了显著变化。机构和长期资本的比例增加，降低了以散户投资者为主导的恐慌性抛售的可能性。近期市场回调主要通过逐步的资产再平衡过程完成。尽管短期市场波动性将持续，但链上指标和资金流动趋势表明比特币的整体长期上升趋势仍然完好无损。</h2>
</div><h3>Target price lowered to $185,500, bullish outlook unchanged</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>目标价格下调至$185,500，乐观展望不变</h3>
</div><p>Based on our TVM valuation framework, our calculations for the market in Q1 2026 yield a neutral benchmark valuation of $145,000 for Bitcoin, down from $154,000 in our previous report. We revise our target price to $185,500 with a 0% fundamental adjustment and a 25% macro adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据我们的 TVM 估值框架，我们对 2026 年第一季度市场的计算得出比特币的中性基准估值为$145,000，低于我们之前报告中的$154,000。我们将目标价格修订为$185,500，基本调整为 0%，宏观调整为 25%。</p>
</div><p>We have increased the fundamental adjustment from -2% to 0%. While Bitcoin network activity remained largely flat compared to the previous quarter, the renewed market focus on the BTCFi ecosystem partially offset the extreme signals from both bulls and bears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们已将基本调整从-2% 提高至 0%。尽管比特币网络活动与上一季度相比基本持平，但市场对 BTCFi 生态系统的重新关注在一定程度上抵消了多头和空头的极端信号。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, we have decreased the macro adjustment from 35% to 25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，我们已将宏观调整从 35% 降低至 25%。</p>
</div><p>While factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, M2 expansion, and the potential passage of the Clarity Act continue to support the market, slowing institutional inflows and rising geopolitical uncertainty necessitate a more conservative valuation approach. This target price reduction should not be interpreted as a bearish signal. Even after the adjustment, the valuation model still indicates approximately 100% upside potential for Bitcoin from its current price. The benchmark price reduction primarily reflects the impact of short-term market volatility, while Bitcoin's intrinsic value remains on an upward trend in the medium to long term. The recent price correction is a healthy market rebalancing process, and the medium- to long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin remains unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管利率下调预期、M2 扩张以及《透明法案》的潜在通过等因素继续支持市场，但机构资金流入放缓和地缘政治不确定性上升使得我们需要采取更为保守的估值方法。这一目标价格的下调不应被解读为看跌信号。即使在调整后，估值模型仍然显示比特币从当前价格来看大约有 100% 的上涨潜力。基准价格的下调主要反映了短期市场波动的影响，而比特币的内在价值在中长期内仍然呈上升趋势。最近的价格修正是市场健康的再平衡过程，比特币的中长期看涨趋势依然不变。</p>
</div>

2026 年第一季度比特币估值报告：目标价格为 185,500 美元