<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>美元/日元货币对在周五跌至 158.16，因为日元继续从本周早些时候的低点反弹。市场参与者越来越关注即将召开的日本银行（BoJ）会议，希望能获得关于未来利率加息步伐的更明确信号。</p>
<p>监管机构普遍预计在下次会议上将维持政策参数不变。然而，投资者已经开始预计最早在 6 月将进行下一次加息。日本银行行长植田和男最近重申，如果经济动能和通胀动态继续与官方预测一致，央行随时准备收紧政策。</p>
<p>日元的额外支撑来自于对可能进行货币干预的担忧，因为美元/日元接近心理上重要的 160 水平。日本当局多次警告不要出现剧烈的单边汇率波动，增加了市场在该区域的敏感性。</p>
<p>与此同时，政治不确定性继续对日元施加压力。市场正在考虑提前举行议会选举的可能性。根据媒体报道，首相高市早苗可能会宣布解散下议院，以推动更积极的财政政策。进一步的细节预计将在 1 月 19 日向执政联盟的代表提出。</p>
<h3><strong>技术分析</strong></h3>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh4_639041535616688153.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh4_639041535616688153.webp"/></p>
<p>在 H4 图表上，美元/日元已修正至 157.90 区域。今天，相关的考虑是潜在形成新的上升结构的初始阶段，目标为 159.59，并有进一步向 160.00 移动的前景。</p>
<p>这一情景在技术上得到了 MACD 指标的支持，其信号线仍高于零水平并且急剧向上，表明尽管最近有所修正，仍然存在看涨动能。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh1_639041535871604945.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh1_639041535871604945.webp"/></p>
<p>在 H1 图表上，美元/日元正在 158.77 附近形成一个整合区间。该区间目前向下扩展至 157.97。</p>
<ul>
<li>低于该水平的突破可能会触发向 156.60 的下跌</li>
<li>向上的突破将为向 159.59 的看涨波浪打开道路</li>
</ul>
<p>这一前景得到了随机振荡器的支持，其信号线位于 50 水平以上，并稳步向 80 移动，表明看涨压力在增加。</p>
<h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
<p>美元/日元处于关键交汇点，平衡着来自干预风险的日元支撑和对日本银行收紧政策的预期，以及来自政治不确定性的持续压力。在短期内，整合可能会持续，但从当前区间的突破将定义下一个方向性移动。只要该货币对保持在关键支撑水平之上，向 160 区域的更广泛看涨趋势在技术上仍然有效，而向下突破将使焦点转向更深的修正目标。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>英镑/美元稳定：情绪转向英镑有利</p>
<p>黄金创下新高，未来有进一步上涨的空间</p>
<p>欧元/美元等待美国通胀数据以确定方向</p>

<p>美元/日元汇率跌至 158.16，因日元回升，市场关注即将召开的日本银行（BoJ）会议。预计日本银行将维持当前政策，但投资者预期在 6 月会加息。关于货币干预和政治不确定性（包括潜在的提前选举）的担忧正在影响日元。技术分析表明美元/日元正处于整合阶段，关键支撑位将决定未来走势。突破可能导致向 160 的看涨趋势，而向下突破则可能将焦点转向更深的修正</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2020/11/27/16/59/man-5782411_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>The USD/JPY pair fell to 158.16 on Friday as the Japanese yen continued its recovery from earlier this week. Market participants are increasingly focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, hoping for clearer signals regarding the future pace of interest rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元货币对在周五跌至 158.16，因为日元继续从本周早些时候的低点反弹。市场参与者越来越关注即将召开的日本银行（BoJ）会议，希望能获得关于未来利率加息步伐的更明确信号。</p>
</div><p>The regulator is widely expected to keep its policy parameters unchanged at the next meeting. However, investors are already pricing in the next rate hike as early as June. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the central bank remains ready to tighten policy if economic momentum and inflation dynamics continue to align with official forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>监管机构普遍预计在下次会议上将维持政策参数不变。然而，投资者已经开始预计最早在 6 月将进行下一次加息。日本银行行长植田和男最近重申，如果经济动能和通胀动态继续与官方预测一致，央行随时准备收紧政策。</p>
</div><p>Additional support for the yen came from renewed concerns over possible currency intervention as USD/JPY approached the psychologically important 160 level. Japanese authorities have repeatedly warned against sharp, unilateral exchange rate movements, increasing market sensitivity in this zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元的额外支撑来自于对可能进行货币干预的担忧，因为美元/日元接近心理上重要的 160 水平。日本当局多次警告不要出现剧烈的单边汇率波动，增加了市场在该区域的敏感性。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the yen. Markets are factoring in the possibility of early parliamentary elections. According to media reports, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may announce the dissolution of the lower house in an effort to push forward a more active fiscal policy. Further details are expected to be presented to representatives of the ruling coalition on 19 January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，政治不确定性继续对日元施加压力。市场正在考虑提前举行议会选举的可能性。根据媒体报道，首相高市早苗可能会宣布解散下议院，以推动更积极的财政政策。进一步的细节预计将在 1 月 19 日向执政联盟的代表提出。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Technical Analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>技术分析</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh4_639041535616688153.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh4_639041535616688153.webp"/></p>
<p>On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to the 157.90 area. For today, it is relevant to consider the potential formation of the initial phase of a renewed upward structure, targeting 159.59, with the prospect of a further move towards 160.00.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 H4 图表上，美元/日元已修正至 157.90 区域。今天，相关的考虑是潜在形成新的上升结构的初始阶段，目标为 159.59，并有进一步向 160.00 移动的前景。</p>
</div><p>This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above the zero level and is directed sharply upward, indicating that bullish momentum remains despite the recent correction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一情景在技术上得到了 MACD 指标的支持，其信号线仍高于零水平并且急剧向上，表明尽管最近有所修正，仍然存在看涨动能。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh1_639041535871604945.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/andrey-goilov/user_content/ckimages/orig_usdjpyh1_639041535871604945.webp"/></p>
<p>On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 158.77. The range has currently expanded downward to 157.97.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 H1 图表上，美元/日元正在 158.77 附近形成一个整合区间。该区间目前向下扩展至 157.97。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A breakout below this level would likely trigger a decline towards 156.60</li>
<li>A breakout to the upside would open the way for a bullish wave towards 159.59</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>低于该水平的突破可能会触发向 156.60 的下跌</li>
<li>向上的突破将为向 159.59 的看涨波浪打开道路</li>
</ul>
</div><p>This outlook is supported by the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal line is positioned above the 50 level and is moving steadily upward towards 80, indicating growing bullish pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一前景得到了随机振荡器的支持，其信号线位于 50 水平以上，并稳步向 80 移动，表明看涨压力在增加。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
</div><p>USD/JPY remains at a critical juncture, balancing yen support from intervention risks and expectations of BoJ tightening against ongoing pressure from political uncertainty. In the short term, consolidation is likely to persist, but a breakout from the current range will define the next directional move. As long as the pair holds above key support levels, the broader bullish trend towards the 160 area remains technically valid, while a downside breakout would shift focus towards deeper corrective targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元处于关键交汇点，平衡着来自干预风险的日元支撑和对日本银行收紧政策的预期，以及来自政治不确定性的持续压力。在短期内，整合可能会持续，但从当前区间的突破将定义下一个方向性移动。只要该货币对保持在关键支撑水平之上，向 160 区域的更广泛看涨趋势在技术上仍然有效，而向下突破将使焦点转向更深的修正目标。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>GBP/USD Stable: Sentiment Shifts In Favor Of Sterling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英镑/美元稳定：情绪转向英镑有利</p>
</div><p>Gold Sets New Highs, With Further Gains Ahead</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金创下新高，未来有进一步上涨的空间</p>
</div><p>EUR/USD Awaiting U.S. Inflation Data For Direction</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元/美元等待美国通胀数据以确定方向</p>
</div>

美元兑日元汇率下滑，因日元对一系列市场消息作出反应