<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>伦敦，1 月 16 日（路透社）——锡市场在新年伊始表现异常火爆，伦敦和上海市场的价格均飙升至历史最高名义水平。</p>
<p>根据中国有色金属工业协会（CNMIA）的说法，这一涨势是 “不合理的”。该协会上个月警告各方 “避免盲目跟风”。</p>
<p>北京的警告并没有在任何方面阻止中国投资者追逐价格，反而使其不断攀升。</p>
<p>上海期货交易所（ShFE）的锡合约（SSNc1）周四的交易量超过了一百万公吨。这是全球年实际使用量的两倍多。</p>
<p>锡显然处于一个投机泡沫中，一旦趋势转变，这个泡沫将会破裂。但实体市场规模与投资兴趣之间的不匹配预示着未来将会有更多的波动。</p>
<p>而且不仅仅是锡。考虑到目前投资者在工业金属领域的狂潮，锡目前的困境可能预示着其他金属供应链的麻烦。</p>
<h3>不理性的繁荣</h3>
<p>伦敦金属交易所（LME）的锡合约在过去几个月一直在上涨，但本周随着中国投资者的强大财力涌入，价格如超新星般爆发。</p>
<p>LME 三个月金属（CMSN3）在周二突破了 2022 年 3 月的价格峰值 51000 美元/公吨，并在周三飙升至 54760 美元。</p>
<p>推动这一涨势的叙述是供应短缺。</p>
<p>锡的结构性供应问题众所周知。全球矿产生产过于集中在少数国家，并且严重依赖于刚果民主共和国和缅甸半自治的瓦州等边缘地区。</p>
<p>但这一涨势时机不当。</p>
<p>如果说有什么变化，锡的供应状况在最近几个月有所改善。</p>
<p>刚果的比西矿因 M23 叛乱的威胁自一年前面临被攻陷的危险以来已经减退。实际上，矿业运营商 Alphamin Resources（AFM.V）在强劲的第三季度表现后提高了年度生产指导。</p>
<p>缅甸的巨型曼毛矿也在经历了一段时间的停产后，显示出恢复生产的迹象。中国在 11 月从邻国进口了 7190 吨锡原材料，这是自 2024 年 8 月以来的最高月度进口量。</p>
<p>尽管印尼对非法采矿的打击仍在继续，但另一方面，印尼锡出口商协会预计官方生产配额将从 2025 年的 53000 吨增加到 2026 年的 60000 吨。</p>
<p>目前精炼锡也并不稀缺。</p>
<p>生产商和交易商在价格上涨中交付了大量金属。LME 和 ShFE 的库存从 10 月底的 11000 吨上升到超过 19000 吨。</p>
<p>在锡的 2022 年之前的峰值时，库存不足 5000 吨。</p>
<p>因此，当中国国家金属机构将锡的超高价格表现描述为 “不合理” 时，可能是有道理的。</p>
<h3>流动性不匹配</h3>
<p>问题在于，借用经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的话，市场可以保持 “不合理” 的时间比你保持偿付能力的时间要长。</p>
<p>特别是对于像锡这样的小市场，投资者对价格的影响可能过大。</p>
<p>这在上海的情况显然如此。</p>
<p>这种投机性激增长期以来一直是中国商品市场的特征。去年是铝土矿。</p>
<p>中国当局已经进入了熟练的应对模式，提高了交易保证金，特别是日内交易的成本，并限制非会员的持仓规模。</p>
<p>但不仅仅是中国人被锡的供应受限和日益增长的用作半导体焊料的叙述所吸引。</p>
<p>过去两年，基金参与伦敦锡市场的情况稳步上升。</p>
<p>当锡价在 2021 年底和 2022 年初达到如此高峰时，投资基金的多头头寸达到了 2887 份合约，相当于 14435 吨。上个月某个阶段，投资多头头寸上升至创纪录的 5753 份合约，或 28765 吨。</p>
<p>流动性激增使得这个历史上价格波动较大的市场更加动荡。</p>
<p>期货狂潮给实体供应链带来了非常现实的问题，因为生产商和消费者在对冲时努力融资保证金。</p>
<p>流动性风险何时会超过价格风险？或者，你能维持偿付能力多久？</p>
<h3>基金与基本面</h3>
<p>几年前，几乎没有人关注锡。这个市场在实际交易量和期货活动方面都太小，不足以吸引大多数基金经理的投资。</p>
<p>但随着世界意识到锡在即将到来的物联网时代中的核心角色，这种情况正在改变。没有电路板，就没有互联网。在我们这个超连接的世界中，几乎没有其他东西。</p>
<p>但结果是，过多的资金涌入一个无法应对的市场。</p>
<p>代表全球最大精炼锡生产商和用户的 CNMIA 明确指出当前繁荣所带来的危险。</p>
<p>“由基金驱动的快速价格飙升已偏离行业基本面，显著放大了市场风险，并损害了全球产业链。”</p>
<p>随着基金资金涌入工业金属领域，寻找除黄金和白银以外的硬资产，锡的戏剧可能为其他需求旺盛的金属如铜发出及时的警告。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社专栏作家。文中所表达的观点仅代表他个人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。关注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
<p>上海锡市场的不理性繁荣</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2556" height="1052" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9"/></p>
<p>锡库存激增，价格创下历史新高</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1584" height="808" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs"/></p>
<p>基金在 12 月持有 LME 锡合约的创纪录多头头寸</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2548" height="1112" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im"/></p>
<p>（编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
<p>)</p>

<p>锡市场因投机交易而飙升至创纪录高位，尤其是中国投资者的参与。中国有色金属工业协会警告即将出现泡沫，因为上海期货交易所的交易量超过了年度全球使用量。尽管存在结构性供应问题，但近期生产改善和库存上升与价格上涨相矛盾。投资的涌入正在造成市场波动，引发了对锡这种小型市场价格可持续性的担忧。这一情况反映了工业金属的更广泛趋势，预示着供应链可能面临的挑战</p>

<p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The tin market has kicked off the new year in explosive form, prices racing to all-time nominal highs on both the London and Shanghai markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，1 月 16 日（路透社）——锡市场在新年伊始表现异常火爆，伦敦和上海市场的价格均飙升至历史最高名义水平。</p>
</div><p>The rally is “unreasonable”, according to the state-backed China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). It warned all parties last month to “avoid blindly following the trend”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据中国有色金属工业协会（CNMIA）的说法，这一涨势是 “不合理的”。该协会上个月警告各方 “避免盲目跟风”。</p>
</div><p>Beijing’s admonition hasn’t in any way deterred Chinese investors from doing just that and chasing the price ever higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京的警告并没有在任何方面阻止中国投资者追逐价格，反而使其不断攀升。</p>
</div><p>The volume of trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s (ShFE) tin contract (SSNc1) exceeded a million metric tons on Thursday. That’s more than twice the world’s annual physical usage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上海期货交易所（ShFE）的锡合约（SSNc1）周四的交易量超过了一百万公吨。这是全球年实际使用量的两倍多。</p>
</div><p>Tin is clearly in a speculative bubble, which will burst just as soon as the trend turns. But the mismatch between the size of the physical market and investment interest foreshadows more volatility ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锡显然处于一个投机泡沫中，一旦趋势转变，这个泡沫将会破裂。但实体市场规模与投资兴趣之间的不匹配预示着未来将会有更多的波动。</p>
</div><p>And not just for tin. Given the tidal wave of investor buying washing through the industrial metals sector right now, tin’s current toil and trouble may be a harbinger for other metal supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且不仅仅是锡。考虑到目前投资者在工业金属领域的狂潮，锡目前的困境可能预示着其他金属供应链的麻烦。</p>
</div><h3>IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>不理性的繁荣</h3>
</div><p>The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin contract has been bubbling away for several months but turned supernova this week as Chinese investors brought their considerable financial firepower to the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦金属交易所（LME）的锡合约在过去几个月一直在上涨，但本周随着中国投资者的强大财力涌入，价格如超新星般爆发。</p>
</div><p>LME three-month metal (CMSN3) took out the previous March 2022 price peak at $51,000 per metric ton on Tuesday and leapt off the charts to $54,760 on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 三个月金属（CMSN3）在周二突破了 2022 年 3 月的价格峰值 51000 美元/公吨，并在周三飙升至 54760 美元。</p>
</div><p>The driving narrative is one of supply shortfall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动这一涨势的叙述是供应短缺。</p>
</div><p>Tin’s structural supply issues are well known. Global mine production is too concentrated in too few countries and heavily dependent on frontier jurisdictions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the semi-autonomous Wa State in Myanmar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锡的结构性供应问题众所周知。全球矿产生产过于集中在少数国家，并且严重依赖于刚果民主共和国和缅甸半自治的瓦州等边缘地区。</p>
</div><p>But this rally is ill-timed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一涨势时机不当。</p>
</div><p>If anything, the tin supply picture has been improving over recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果说有什么变化，锡的供应状况在最近几个月有所改善。</p>
</div><p>The threat to Congo’s Bisie mine from the M23 insurgency has receded since the site was in danger of being overrun a year ago. Indeed, mine operator Alphamin Resources (AFM.V) raised its annual production guidance after a strong third quarter performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刚果的比西矿因 M23 叛乱的威胁自一年前面临被攻陷的危险以来已经减退。实际上，矿业运营商 Alphamin Resources（AFM.V）在强劲的第三季度表现后提高了年度生产指导。</p>
</div><p>The giant Man Maw mine in Myanmar is also showing signs of renewed productive life after a prolonged absence. China imported 7,190 tons of tin raw materials from its neighbour in November, the highest monthly tally since August 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缅甸的巨型曼毛矿也在经历了一段时间的停产后，显示出恢复生产的迹象。中国在 11 月从邻国进口了 7190 吨锡原材料，这是自 2024 年 8 月以来的最高月度进口量。</p>
</div><p>And while Indonesia’s crackdown on illegal mining continues, the flip side is an expected increase in official-sector production quotas from 53,000 tons in 2025 to 60,000 tons in 2026, according to the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管印尼对非法采矿的打击仍在继续，但另一方面，印尼锡出口商协会预计官方生产配额将从 2025 年的 53000 吨增加到 2026 年的 60000 吨。</p>
</div><p>Nor is there any scarcity of refined tin right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前精炼锡也并不稀缺。</p>
</div><p>Producers and traders have delivered significant amounts of metal into the price rally. Combined stocks held by the LME and ShFE have risen from 11,000 tons at the end of October to over 19,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生产商和交易商在价格上涨中交付了大量金属。LME 和 ShFE 的库存从 10 月底的 11000 吨上升到超过 19000 吨。</p>
</div><p>At the time of tin’s previous 2022 peak, inventory was under 5,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在锡的 2022 年之前的峰值时，库存不足 5000 吨。</p>
</div><p>So when China’s state metals body describes tin’s super-charged price performance as “unreasonable”, it may have a point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，当中国国家金属机构将锡的超高价格表现描述为 “不合理” 时，可能是有道理的。</p>
</div><h3>LIQUIDITY MISMATCH</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>流动性不匹配</h3>
</div><p>The problem, to paraphrase economist John Maynard Keynes, is that a market can remain “unreasonable” longer than you can remain solvent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，借用经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的话，市场可以保持 “不合理” 的时间比你保持偿付能力的时间要长。</p>
</div><p>Particularly if it’s a small market such as tin, where investors can have an outsize price impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特别是对于像锡这样的小市场，投资者对价格的影响可能过大。</p>
</div><p>This is clearly the case in Shanghai right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这在上海的情况显然如此。</p>
</div><p>Such speculative surges have long characterised China’s commodity markets. Last year it was alumina.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种投机性激增长期以来一直是中国商品市场的特征。去年是铝土矿。</p>
</div><p>The Chinese authorities have gone into well-practiced fire-fighting mode, raising trading margins, particularly the cost of intraday trades, and limiting position sizes for non-members.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国当局已经进入了熟练的应对模式，提高了交易保证金，特别是日内交易的成本，并限制非会员的持仓规模。</p>
</div><p>But it’s not just the Chinese who have been drawn in by tin’s narrative of constrained supply and growing usage as a semiconductor solder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但不仅仅是中国人被锡的供应受限和日益增长的用作半导体焊料的叙述所吸引。</p>
</div><p>Fund participation in the London tin market has been steadily rising over the last couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去两年，基金参与伦敦锡市场的情况稳步上升。</p>
</div><p>When tin prices last scaled such giddy heights in late 2021 and early 2022, the investment fund long position peaked at 2,887 contracts, equivalent to 14,435 tons. At one stage last month, the investment long position rose to a record 5,753 contracts, or 28,765 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当锡价在 2021 年底和 2022 年初达到如此高峰时，投资基金的多头头寸达到了 2887 份合约，相当于 14435 吨。上个月某个阶段，投资多头头寸上升至创纪录的 5753 份合约，或 28765 吨。</p>
</div><p>The liquidity rush has injected more volatility into a market with a history of price wildness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流动性激增使得这个历史上价格波动较大的市场更加动荡。</p>
</div><p>The futures frenzy poses very real-world problems for the physical supply chain as producers and consumers struggle to finance margins against their hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期货狂潮给实体供应链带来了非常现实的问题，因为生产商和消费者在对冲时努力融资保证金。</p>
</div><p>When does liquidity risk override price risk? Or, how long can you remain solvent?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流动性风险何时会超过价格风险？或者，你能维持偿付能力多久？</p>
</div><h3>FUNDS AND FUNDAMENTALS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>基金与基本面</h3>
</div><p>A few years ago no one paid much attention to tin. The market was too small, both in terms of physical volumes and futures activity, to qualify for investment with most fund managers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几年前，几乎没有人关注锡。这个市场在实际交易量和期货活动方面都太小，不足以吸引大多数基金经理的投资。</p>
</div><p>That is changing as the world wakes up to tin’s central role in the coming Internet of Things Age. No circuit boards, no internet. And very little else in our hyper-connected world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着世界意识到锡在即将到来的物联网时代中的核心角色，这种情况正在改变。没有电路板，就没有互联网。在我们这个超连接的世界中，几乎没有其他东西。</p>
</div><p>But the result is too much money flooding into a market ill-equipped to handle it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但结果是，过多的资金涌入一个无法应对的市场。</p>
</div><p>CNMIA, which speaks on behalf of both the world’s largest refined tin producer and user, is clear about the dangers posed by the current exuberance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>代表全球最大精炼锡生产商和用户的 CNMIA 明确指出当前繁荣所带来的危险。</p>
</div><p>“The rapid price surge driven by funds has deviated from industry fundamentals, significantly magnifying market risks and harming the global industry chain.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由基金驱动的快速价格飙升已偏离行业基本面，显著放大了市场风险，并损害了全球产业链。”</p>
</div><p>As fund money pours into the industrial metals complex in search of hard assets other than gold and silver, tin’s drama may serve as a timely warning for other in-demand metals such as copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着基金资金涌入工业金属领域，寻找除黄金和白银以外的硬资产，锡的戏剧可能为其他需求旺盛的金属如铜发出及时的警告。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社专栏作家。文中所表达的观点仅代表他个人。喜欢这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），获取关于市场和金融的发人深省、数据驱动的评论。关注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
</div><p>Irrational exuberance on the Shanghai tin market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上海锡市场的不理性繁荣</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9"/></p>
<p>Tin stocks surge as price hits record highs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>锡库存激增，价格创下历史新高</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs"/></p>
<p>Funds held a record long position on the LME tin contract in December</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基金在 12 月持有 LME 锡合约的创纪录多头头寸</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：玛格丽塔·蔡）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

ROI-锡价泡沫预示着全球工业将面临艰难和困扰：安迪·霍姆