<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2494" height="1682" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg"/></p>
<p>本周，英镑成为焦点，因为交易者调整了对英格兰银行（BoE）降息的预期。周五，GBP/USD 汇率交易在 1.2692，低于上周五的高点 1.2760。</p>
<h2>BoE 降息押注</h2>
<p>尽管英国发布了混合的经济数据，且里希·苏纳克呼吁在七月举行提前选举，GBP/USD 货币对仍然回落。</p>
<p>周三发布的数据表明，该国的通胀下降速度低于预期。整体 CPI 降至 2.4%，而剔除波动较大的食品和能源产品的核心数据降至 3.6%。</p>
<p>大多数分析师预计 CPI 数据将达到或低于 BoE 的目标 2.0%，因为能源价格已经下降。实际上，能源监管机构的一份报告称，七月的能源账单将下降 7%。</p>
<p>通胀数据的下降使消费者信心增强。Gfk 的数据显示，消费者信心在五月连续第二个月上升，达到了 -17，优于预期的 -18。</p>
<p>然而，另一份报告显示，四月的零售销售仍然承压。根据国家统计局（ONS）的数据，整体零售销售环比下降 2.3%，同比下降 2.7%，均低于预期的下降 0.5% 和 0.2%。</p>
<p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源产品的核心通胀环比下降 2.0%，而核心 CPI 则暴跌 3.0%。这些数据，加上疲软的制造业和服务业采购经理人指数（PMI），意味着经济增长不如预期强劲。</p>
<p>分析师们开始排除 BoE 六月降息的可能性。摩根士丹利、高盛和汇丰的经济学家认为，央行不会如广泛预期的那样在六月降息。相反，他们预计降息将在八月，即提前选举一个月后进行。一位汇丰分析师表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“六月的货币政策委员会会议本来就可能是个悬念，而强劲的通胀数据可能打消了降息的前景。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>GBP/USD 技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="570" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png"/></p>
<p>TradingView 的 GBP/USD 图表</p>
<p>在 4 月 22 日形成晨星形态后，GBP/USD 汇率反弹。随着汇率上涨，25 日和 50 日指数移动平均线（EMA）形成了看涨交叉。</p>
<p>它已移动到 Woodie 支点的第一个阻力位，而 MACD 指标已上升至中性点以上。相对强弱指数（RSI）在接近超买水平后向下指向。</p>
<p>因此，该货币对可能会继续上涨，因为买家瞄准 1.2900 的第二个阻力位，这与 5 月 8 日的最高点相吻合。</p>
<p>关于 GBP/USD 的预测：摩根士丹利、汇丰对 BoE 的态度转变的信号首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

汇丰控股

汇丰

摩根士丹利

汇丰控股有限公司

<p>英镑/美元汇率引起了关注，因为交易者重新评估对英格兰银行（BoE）降息的前景。目前汇率为 1.2692，较之前的 1.2760 下跌，英镑的波动受到混合经济数据的影响，包括通胀下降速度低于预期和零售销售下滑。摩根士丹利和汇丰的分析师现在预测降息将在 8 月而非 6 月，受到近期通胀数据的影响。技术分析表明，英镑/美元有可能上涨至 1.2900，跟随看涨指标</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg"/></p>
<p>The British pound has come in the spotlight this week as traders adjust their Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts outlook. The GBP/USD exchange rate was trading at 1.2692 on Friday, down from last Friday’s high of 1.2760.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，英镑成为焦点，因为交易者调整了对英格兰银行（BoE）降息的预期。周五，GBP/USD 汇率交易在 1.2692，低于上周五的高点 1.2760。</p>
</div><h2>BoE interest rate cuts bets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>BoE 降息押注</h2>
</div><p>The GBP/USD pair pulled back even after the UK published mixed economic data and Rishi Sunak called for a snap election in July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英国发布了混合的经济数据，且里希·苏纳克呼吁在七月举行提前选举，GBP/USD 货币对仍然回落。</p>
</div><p>Data released on Wednesday revealed that the country’s inflation dropped at a slower pace than expected. The headline CPI tumbled to 2.4% while the core figure, which excludes the volatile food and energy products fell to 3.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三发布的数据表明，该国的通胀下降速度低于预期。整体 CPI 降至 2.4%，而剔除波动较大的食品和能源产品的核心数据降至 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Most analysts were expecting the CPI figure to come in at or below the BoE’s target of 2.0% because energy prices have dropped. In fact, a report by the energy regulator said that energy bills will drop 7% in July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数分析师预计 CPI 数据将达到或低于 BoE 的目标 2.0%，因为能源价格已经下降。实际上，能源监管机构的一份报告称，七月的能源账单将下降 7%。</p>
</div><p>The falling inflation figures has led to more confidence among consumers. Data by Gfk showed that consumer confidence rose for the second straight month in May. It moved to minus 17, better than the expected minus 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀数据的下降使消费者信心增强。Gfk 的数据显示，消费者信心在五月连续第二个月上升，达到了 -17，优于预期的 -18。</p>
</div><p>However, another report showed that retail sales remained under pressure in April. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the headline retail sales dropped by 2.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY, worse than the expected drop of 0.5% and 0.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，另一份报告显示，四月的零售销售仍然承压。根据国家统计局（ONS）的数据，整体零售销售环比下降 2.3%，同比下降 2.7%，均低于预期的下降 0.5% 和 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, dropped to 2.0% MoM while the core CPI crashed by 3.0%. These figures, together with the weak flash manufacturing and services PMIs, mean that the economic growth is not as strong as expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源产品的核心通胀环比下降 2.0%，而核心 CPI 则暴跌 3.0%。这些数据，加上疲软的制造业和服务业采购经理人指数（PMI），意味着经济增长不如预期强劲。</p>
</div><p>Analysts have started ruling our a June rate cut by the BoE. Economists at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC believe that the bank will not cut rates in June as widely expected. Instead, they expect the cut to happen in August, a month after the snap election. A HSBC analyst said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们开始排除 BoE 六月降息的可能性。摩根士丹利、高盛和汇丰的经济学家认为，央行不会如广泛预期的那样在六月降息。相反，他们预计降息将在八月，即提前选举一个月后进行。一位汇丰分析师表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The June MPC meeting was always likely to be a close call and and punchy inflation data may have knocked out the prospect of a cut.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“六月的货币政策委员会会议本来就可能是个悬念，而强劲的通胀数据可能打消了降息的前景。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>GBP/USD technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>GBP/USD 技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png"/></p>
<p>GBP/USD chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingView 的 GBP/USD 图表</p>
</div><p>The GBP to USD exchange rate has bounced back after forming a morning star pattern on April 22nd. As it jumped, the 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bullish crossover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 月 22 日形成晨星形态后，GBP/USD 汇率反弹。随着汇率上涨，25 日和 50 日指数移动平均线（EMA）形成了看涨交叉。</p>
</div><p>It has moved to the first resistance of the Woodie pivot point while the MACD indicator has moved above the neutral point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed downwards after nearing the overbought level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它已移动到 Woodie 支点的第一个阻力位，而 MACD 指标已上升至中性点以上。相对强弱指数（RSI）在接近超买水平后向下指向。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the second resistance at 1.2900, which coincides with its highest point on May 8th.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，该货币对可能会继续上涨，因为买家瞄准 1.2900 的第二个阻力位，这与 5 月 8 日的最高点相吻合。</p>
</div><p>The post GBP/USD forecast: signal as Morgan Stanley, HSBC change tune on BoE appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于 GBP/USD 的预测：摩根士丹利、汇丰对 BoE 的态度转变的信号首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

GBP/USD forecast: signal as Morgan Stanley, HSBC change tune on BoE

- 英镑因交易员调整英央行利率预期而受到关注。  
- GBP/USD 汇率从 1.2760 下跌至 1.2692，反映出经济数据利空。  
- 分析师预计英央行将在八月降息，而非六月。

英镑/美元预测：摩根士丹利和汇丰改变了对英国央行的看法