<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>2 月 1 日，英格兰银行（BoE）宣布决定将利率维持在 5.25% 时，没人感到惊讶。</p>
<p>随着人们对美国联邦储备委员会可能在 3 月降息的乐观情绪日益高涨，以及欧洲中央银行可能在 6 月跟进，许多人将当前的利率维持视为一种必要的表演，以维持 “高利率持续更长时间” 的假象，然后尽快降低利率。</p>
<p>但对于经济背景截然不同的英国来说，情况是否会有所不同？是否会有一个截然不同的惊喜在等待着？</p>
<h2>降息意愿的 ‘微弱证据’</h2>
<p>英国高净值投资服务公司 Wealth Club 的投资经理 Nicholas Hyett 表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在圣诞节之前，投资者对中央银行家们的印象是他们随时准备降息，只等着第一个借口就能再次降低利率……[但] 几乎没有证据表明中央银行家们渴望降息。最新的 BoE 决定中利率如预期保持不变，但有两位货币政策委员会成员投票支持加息，认为货币政策需要在更长时间内保持紧缩，以控制核心通胀。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>87% 的脱节</h2>
<p>问题在于公众并没有相同的看法。新的研究发现，英国居民实际上认为情况正好相反。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Clifton Private Finance 抵押贷款脉搏报告 2024</p>
<p>在 Clifton Private Finance 最近的一项研究中，名为《Clifton Private Finance 抵押贷款脉搏报告 2024》，在 2023 年 11 月至 2024 年 1 月期间，数千名访问者被问及他们是否认为利率会升高。</p>
<p>他们发现，绝大多数参与者——87%——强烈认为利率在接下来的 12 个月内会保持不变或下降。在这些人中，62% 似乎积极认为会降息，而近 25% 认为利率会保持不变。</p>
<p>仅有 13.4% 的受访者愿意考虑在接下来的一年内，出于任何原因，利率可能实际升高的可能性。</p>
<h2>震惊之后</h2>
<p>如果 2024 年英国不是降息而是加息，这无疑会让许多人感到惊讶——这种震惊可能会使市场暂时陷入动荡。但这种情况有多大可能性呢？</p>
<p>中央银行在最近几个月一再表示，如果他们看到通胀再次抬头的任何微弱迹象，他们愿意 “彻底扭转局面”，再次加息。</p>
<p>在 2 月 1 日，英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利在 BoE 的货币报告新闻发布会上表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>如果我们在接下来的三年内将银行利率保持在 5.25%，我们认为通胀最终可能会显著低于目标。但如果我们遵循市场利率的调整路径 [降低利率]，我们认为通胀在未来三年内大部分时间将高于目标。我们必须在足够长的时间内保持货币政策的紧缩。需要保持紧缩的时间有多长？需要达到什么水平的银行利率才能实现这一点？这些问题的答案最终将取决于即将到来的数据告诉我们关于英国经济和中期通胀的前景。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>换句话说：‘如果没有外部的地缘政治逆风再次出现，就像俄罗斯第一次入侵乌克兰那样，那么我们在中期内降低利率的机会看起来不错。如果没有，我们将继续保持紧缩。’</p>
<p>问题在于，已经存在显著的逆风：中东持续的危机，贝利在同一货币政策报告演讲中直接提到过。</p>
<h2>结论</h2>
<p>英格兰银行加息，而不是世界其他地方期待已久的降息，并不是不可能的。</p>
<p>我们只希望，如果加息发生，这一意外决定对英国市场造成的震惊不会使其已经岌岌可危的经济在今年无法实现任何增长。</p>
<p>本文标题为《2024 年英国加息的可能性 - 如果 87% 的人错了呢？》，首发于 Invezz。</p>

<p>英格兰银行（BoE）在 2 月 1 日将利率维持在 5.25%，这一决定并未让人感到意外。尽管美国和欧洲对降息的乐观情绪在上升，但英国居民普遍认为利率将保持不变或下降，最近的一项调查显示 87% 的人预计不会加息。投资经理尼古拉斯·海耶特（Nicholas Hyett）指出，央行官员中对降息的渴望几乎没有证据。英国可能的加息将可能震动市场，尤其是在当前经济面临的各种阻力，包括地缘政治紧张局势。英格兰银行的立场依然谨慎，强调需要采取限制性的货币政策</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>On February 1st, when the Bank of England (BoE) announced that it had decided to keep interest rates steady at 5.25%, it surprised no one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月 1 日，英格兰银行（BoE）宣布决定将利率维持在 5.25% 时，没人感到惊讶。</p>
</div><p>With growing optimism that the Federal Reserve in the United States may cut rates as soon as March, and that the European Central Bank may follow suit around June, many are viewing the current rate holds as a necessary bit of theatre to keep up the ‘higher for longer’ charade before lowering interest rates as quickly as possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着人们对美国联邦储备委员会可能在 3 月降息的乐观情绪日益高涨，以及欧洲中央银行可能在 6 月跟进，许多人将当前的利率维持视为一种必要的表演，以维持 “高利率持续更长时间” 的假象，然后尽快降低利率。</p>
</div><p>But what if that’s not the case for the United Kingdom, with its very different current economic backdrop? What if a very different surprise was waiting?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于经济背景截然不同的英国来说，情况是否会有所不同？是否会有一个截然不同的惊喜在等待着？</p>
</div><h2>‘Little evidence’ of rate cut eagerness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息意愿的 ‘微弱证据’</h2>
</div><p>Nicholas Hyett, an investment manager at UK-based high net-worth investment service Wealth Club, had this to say:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国高净值投资服务公司 Wealth Club 的投资经理 Nicholas Hyett 表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Before Christmas, investors had built up a picture of central bankers as trigger happy rate cutters, just waiting for the first excuse to get rates falling once again… [but] there’s little evidence central bankers are rate cut hungry. Rates were unchanged as expected [in the latest BoE decision] but two MPC members voted to increase rates – arguing that monetary policy need to be restrictive for longer to get core inflation back under control.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在圣诞节之前，投资者对中央银行家们的印象是他们随时准备降息，只等着第一个借口就能再次降低利率……[但] 几乎没有证据表明中央银行家们渴望降息。最新的 BoE 决定中利率如预期保持不变，但有两位货币政策委员会成员投票支持加息，认为货币政策需要在更长时间内保持紧缩，以控制核心通胀。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>An 87% disconnect</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>87% 的脱节</h2>
</div><p>The trouble is that the public does not have the same view. New research is finding that UK residents, in fact, think the opposite is true.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于公众并没有相同的看法。新的研究发现，英国居民实际上认为情况正好相反。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png"/></p>
<p>Source: The Clifton Private Finance Mortgage Pulse Report 2024</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Clifton Private Finance 抵押贷款脉搏报告 2024</p>
</div><p>In a recent study by Clifton Private Finance, namedThe Clifton Private Finance Mortgage Pulse Report 2024, thousands of visitors to the site were asked in between November 2023 and January 2024 if they believed interest rates would rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Clifton Private Finance 最近的一项研究中，名为《Clifton Private Finance 抵押贷款脉搏报告 2024》，在 2023 年 11 月至 2024 年 1 月期间，数千名访问者被问及他们是否认为利率会升高。</p>
</div><p>And what they found was that the vast majority – 87% of all participants – felt strongly that interest rates would either stay the same or drop in the next 12 months. Of these, 62% actively seemed to think rate cuts would happen, while almost 25% felt rates would stay the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们发现，绝大多数参与者——87%——强烈认为利率在接下来的 12 个月内会保持不变或下降。在这些人中，62% 似乎积极认为会降息，而近 25% 认为利率会保持不变。</p>
</div><p>Just 13.4% of respondents were willing to consider the possibility that interest rates might actually rise within the next year, for any reason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅有 13.4% 的受访者愿意考虑在接下来的一年内，出于任何原因，利率可能实际升高的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>After shock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>震惊之后</h2>
</div><p>A rate hike for the UK rather than cuts later in 2024 would certainly be a surprise to many – and the kind of shock that may send markets into a temporary tailspin. But how likely is this?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 2024 年英国不是降息而是加息，这无疑会让许多人感到惊讶——这种震惊可能会使市场暂时陷入动荡。但这种情况有多大可能性呢？</p>
</div><p>Central banks have said again and again in recent months that they are willing to ‘turn the whole thing around’ and raise rates again, should they see the slightest sign of inflation rearing its head again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行在最近几个月一再表示，如果他们看到通胀再次抬头的任何微弱迹象，他们愿意 “彻底扭转局面”，再次加息。</p>
</div><p>On February 1st, Governor of the BoE Andrew Bailey said the following at the BoE’s monetary report press conference:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月 1 日，英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利在 BoE 的货币报告新闻发布会上表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>If we were to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% for the next three years, we think it is likely that inflation would eventually fall significantly below target. But if we were to follow the market-rate conditioning path [of lowering interest rates], we think inflation would be above target for much of the next three years. We have to keep monetary policy sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long. For how long will a restrictive stance be needed? What level of Bank Rate will be required to deliver it? The answers to those questions will ultimately depend on what the incoming data tell us about the outlook for the UK economy and inflation over the medium term.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>如果我们在接下来的三年内将银行利率保持在 5.25%，我们认为通胀最终可能会显著低于目标。但如果我们遵循市场利率的调整路径 [降低利率]，我们认为通胀在未来三年内大部分时间将高于目标。我们必须在足够长的时间内保持货币政策的紧缩。需要保持紧缩的时间有多长？需要达到什么水平的银行利率才能实现这一点？这些问题的答案最终将取决于即将到来的数据告诉我们关于英国经济和中期通胀的前景。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In other words: ‘if no external, geopolitical headwinds come again, the way that Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine did the first time, then the chances of us lowering the interest rate in the medium-term look good. If not, we stay as restrictive as ever.’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说：‘如果没有外部的地缘政治逆风再次出现，就像俄罗斯第一次入侵乌克兰那样，那么我们在中期内降低利率的机会看起来不错。如果没有，我们将继续保持紧缩。’</p>
</div><p>The trouble with this is that there are significant headwinds already: the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which Bailey directly referred to in his same monetary policy report speech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，已经存在显著的逆风：中东持续的危机，贝利在同一货币政策报告演讲中直接提到过。</p>
</div><h2>The bottom line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论</h2>
</div><p>An interest rate hike from the BoE, instead of the long-awaited rate cuts the rest of the world is banking on, is not out of the realms of possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格兰银行加息，而不是世界其他地方期待已久的降息，并不是不可能的。</p>
</div><p>Let’s just hope that, if a hike happens, the shock such an unanticipated decision would have on UK markets wouldn’t push its already-flailing economy too far to see any growth this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们只希望，如果加息发生，这一意外决定对英国市场造成的震惊不会使其已经岌岌可危的经济在今年无法实现任何增长。</p>
</div><p>The post The odds of a UK rate hike in 2024 - what if 87% of people are wrong? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文标题为《2024 年英国加息的可能性 - 如果 87% 的人错了呢？》，首发于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

2024 年英国加息的几率——如果 87% 的人都判断错误会怎样？