<p>Polymarket 博彩网站看好 Warsh 担任美联储主席</p>
<p>日本考虑干预以应对日元贬值</p>
<p>高市早苗计划提前选举以获得财政政策支持</p>
<p>（更新于纽约下午时间）</p>
<p>作者：Karen Brettell</p>
<p>纽约，1 月 16 日（路透社）- 在美国总统特朗普在白宫活动中赞扬经济顾问凯文·哈塞特，并表示他可能希望让哈塞特继续担任现职后，美元在周五上涨，这引发了他不太可能被任命为美联储主席的猜测。</p>
<p>“我看到凯文在观众中，我只想感谢你。你今天在电视上表现得非常出色。说实话，我实际上想让你继续留在你现在的位置上，” 特朗普说。</p>
<p>投资直播的首席货币分析师亚当·巴顿在一份报告中表示：“我们看到一些美元在这个头条新闻下买入，因为这强调了美联储的决定主要与政治信誉有关。”</p>
<p>“在候选人中，哈塞特被视为最不独立的，这反过来又是最鸽派的，因为特朗普长期以来希望降息，” 巴顿说。预计特朗普将在未来几周内提名接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔的候选人，鲍威尔的任期将于 5 月结束。该职位的四位主要候选人是哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、前美联储理事凯文·沃什和黑石集团的首席债券投资经理里克·里德。</p>
<p>博彩网站 Polymarket 显示，沃什现在是获得该职位的热门人选。美元指数（=USD）衡量美元对包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的汇率，上涨 0.06% 至 99.41，欧元（EUR=）下跌 0.1%，报 1.1594。该指数在周四达到了 99.49 的六周高点。</p>
<p>本周，美国货币受到推动，数据显示美国劳动力市场改善，这推迟了对美联储进一步降息的预期，直到 6 月。美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼周五表示，脆弱的就业市场可能迅速恶化，这意味着美国中央银行应随时准备再次降息。周五的数据表明，美国工厂生产在 12 月意外增加，主要金属产量激增抵消了汽车组装厂的下降，但在进口关税带来的挑战背景下，第四季度的活动收缩。</p>
<p>日本警告干预日元 日元在周五也走强，此前日本财政大臣片山萨苏基表示，东京不会排除任何应对货币贬值的选项，包括与美国的协调干预。</p>
<p>周三，日元兑美元贬值至 18 个月低点，原因是人们担心日本首相高市早苗将有更多空间推出财政扩张政策。高市计划在下周解散国会并召开提前的议会选举，她的政党秘书长在周三表示，因为她寻求公众对其支出计划的支持。</p>
<p>“这可能是推动高市交易延续和美元/日元新高的关键因素，” 瑞银的外汇和宏观策略师瓦西里·谢列布里亚科夫说。但 “我们必须权衡美元/日元的上行风险与外汇干预的风险。”</p>
<p>日元（JPY=）兑美元上涨 0.3%，报 158.16。</p>
<p>谢列布里亚科夫认为，在 160-162 区间干预的可能性更大。</p>
<p>CIBC 资本市场 FICC 策略主管诺亚·巴法姆也认为日元可能继续贬值，指出日本官员尚未表现出完全的紧迫感。一些日本银行政策制定者也认为，随着日元贬值可能加剧已经扩大的通胀压力，提前加息的可能性比市场预期的要早，四位熟悉其思路的消息人士表示，四月是一个明显的可能性。</p>
<p>在加密货币方面，比特币（BTC=）下跌 0.77%，报 94,812 美元。</p>
<p>（报道：Karen Brettell；额外报道：Joice Alves 和 Rocky Swift；编辑：Susan Fenton 和 Deepa Babington）</p>

<p>在特朗普总统表示他可能会让经济顾问凯文·哈塞特继续担任现职后，美元走强，减少了市场对他担任美联储主席的猜测。美元指数上升至 99.41，受到积极的劳动力市场数据的支持。与此同时，日本财政部长警告日元贬值，暗示可能会进行干预。日元对美元略微回升至 158.16。博彩市场现在更倾向于凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，因为预计特朗普很快会宣布他的选择</p>

<p>Polymarket betting site favors Warsh for Fed Chair role</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 博彩网站看好 Warsh 担任美联储主席</p>
</div><p>Japan considers intervention to counter yen weakness</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本考虑干预以应对日元贬值</p>
</div><p>Takaichi plans snap election to gain support for fiscal policies</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高市早苗计划提前选举以获得财政政策支持</p>
</div><p>(Updated in New York afternoon time)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新于纽约下午时间）</p>
</div><p>By Karen Brettell</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Karen Brettell</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The dollar gained on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump praised economic adviser Kevin Hassett at a White House event and said he may want to keep him in his current role, prompting speculation he is less likely to be named as chair of the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，1 月 16 日（路透社）- 在美国总统特朗普在白宫活动中赞扬经济顾问凯文·哈塞特，并表示他可能希望让哈塞特继续担任现职后，美元在周五上涨，这引发了他不太可能被任命为美联储主席的猜测。</p>
</div><p>“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我看到凯文在观众中，我只想感谢你。你今天在电视上表现得非常出色。说实话，我实际上想让你继续留在你现在的位置上，” 特朗普说。</p>
</div><p>“We have seen some US dollar buying on this headline, as it underscores that the Fed decision is mostly about political credibility,” Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive, said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资直播的首席货币分析师亚当·巴顿在一份报告中表示：“我们看到一些美元在这个头条新闻下买入，因为这强调了美联储的决定主要与政治信誉有关。”</p>
</div><p>“Of the candidates, Hassett is seen as the least independent, which in turn is the most-dovish due to Trump’s longstanding desire to cut rates,” Button said. Trump is expected to name his candidate to succeed Jerome Powell in the coming weeks, with Powell’s term due to end in May. The leading four candidates for the role are Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock’s chief bond investment manager Rick Rieder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在候选人中，哈塞特被视为最不独立的，这反过来又是最鸽派的，因为特朗普长期以来希望降息，” 巴顿说。预计特朗普将在未来几周内提名接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔的候选人，鲍威尔的任期将于 5 月结束。该职位的四位主要候选人是哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、前美联储理事凯文·沃什和黑石集团的首席债券投资经理里克·里德。</p>
</div><p>Betting site Polymarket shows that Warsh is now a favorite to get the role. The dollar index (=USD) , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.06% to 99.41, with the euro (EUR=) down 0.1% at $1.1594. The index reached a six-week high of 99.49 on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博彩网站 Polymarket 显示，沃什现在是获得该职位的热门人选。美元指数（=USD）衡量美元对包括日元和欧元在内的一篮子货币的汇率，上涨 0.06% 至 99.41，欧元（EUR=）下跌 0.1%，报 1.1594。该指数在周四达到了 99.49 的六周高点。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. currency has been boosted this week by data showing an improving U.S. labor market, which has pushed back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts until June. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday a fragile job market that could weaken quickly means the U.S. central bank should stand ready to cut interest rates again if needed. Data on Friday showed that U.S. factory production unexpectedly increased in December amid a surge in primary metals output that offset a decline at motor vehicle assembly plants, but activity contracted in the fourth quarter against the backdrop of challenges from import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，美国货币受到推动，数据显示美国劳动力市场改善，这推迟了对美联储进一步降息的预期，直到 6 月。美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼周五表示，脆弱的就业市场可能迅速恶化，这意味着美国中央银行应随时准备再次降息。周五的数据表明，美国工厂生产在 12 月意外增加，主要金属产量激增抵消了汽车组装厂的下降，但在进口关税带来的挑战背景下，第四季度的活动收缩。</p>
</div><p>JAPAN WARNS ON YEN INTERVENTION The yen was also stronger on Friday after Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo would not rule out any options to counter weakness in the currency, including coordinated intervention with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本警告干预日元 日元在周五也走强，此前日本财政大臣片山萨苏基表示，东京不会排除任何应对货币贬值的选项，包括与美国的协调干预。</p>
</div><p>The Japanese currency weakened to an 18-month low against the dollar on Wednesday on concerns that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will have more leeway to introduce fiscally expansionist policies. Takaichi plans to dissolve parliament next week and call a snap parliamentary election, the secretary general of her party said on Wednesday, as she seeks public backing for her spending plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，日元兑美元贬值至 18 个月低点，原因是人们担心日本首相高市早苗将有更多空间推出财政扩张政策。高市计划在下周解散国会并召开提前的议会选举，她的政党秘书长在周三表示，因为她寻求公众对其支出计划的支持。</p>
</div><p>“That’s probably the key factor orchestrating the extension of the Takaichi trade and the new dollar/yen highs,” said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX and macro strategist at UBS. But “we have to weigh the upside in dollar/yen against risks of FX intervention.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这可能是推动高市交易延续和美元/日元新高的关键因素，” 瑞银的外汇和宏观策略师瓦西里·谢列布里亚科夫说。但 “我们必须权衡美元/日元的上行风险与外汇干预的风险。”</p>
</div><p>The Japanese yen (JPY=) strengthened 0.3% against the greenback to 158.16 per dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元（JPY=）兑美元上涨 0.3%，报 158.16。</p>
</div><p>Serebriakov sees an intervention as more likely in the 160-162 area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谢列布里亚科夫认为，在 160-162 区间干预的可能性更大。</p>
</div><p>Noah Buffam, director in FICC strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, also sees potential for the yen to continue to weaken, noting that Japanese officials are not yet showing full urgency in their warnings. Some Bank of Japan policymakers also see scope to raise interest rates sooner than markets expect with April a distinct possibility, as a sliding yen risks adding to already broadening inflationary pressure, four sources familiar with its thinking said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 资本市场 FICC 策略主管诺亚·巴法姆也认为日元可能继续贬值，指出日本官员尚未表现出完全的紧迫感。一些日本银行政策制定者也认为，随着日元贬值可能加剧已经扩大的通胀压力，提前加息的可能性比市场预期的要早，四位熟悉其思路的消息人士表示，四月是一个明显的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin (BTC=) fell 0.77% to $94,812.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在加密货币方面，比特币（BTC=）下跌 0.77%，报 94,812 美元。</p>
</div><p>(Reporitng by Karen Brettell; Additonal reporting by Joice Alves and Rocky Swift; Editing by Susan Fenton and Deepa Babington)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（报道：Karen Brettell；额外报道：Joice Alves 和 Rocky Swift；编辑：Susan Fenton 和 Deepa Babington）</p>
</div>

外汇市场——由于 Hassett 被任命为美联储主席的几率下降，美元走强