<p>本周二，美国最高法院将审理特朗普诉库克案。这不仅仅是一起人事争议；它正在成为美联储作为独立中央银行的 <strong>“审判日”</strong>。</p>
<p>根据追风交易台的信息，瑞银在 16 日的报告中直言不讳地表示，此案对美联储的独立性至关重要。如果法院裁定白宫可以绕过《美联储法》的保护，因 “正当理由” 解除库克州长的职务，那么解雇主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的法律大门将被彻底打开。</p>
<p>这样的裁决将冒着立即破坏数据驱动的货币政策制定的风险，取而代之的是政治导向的降息。一旦这条防线被突破，美元、国债和美国股票的定价框架将面临长期的结构性重新定价。瑞银警告称，2026 年注定将动荡不安，而本周正是冲击的震中。</p>
<h2>可能决定美联储命运的 “审判日”</h2>
<p>本周的最高法院听证会（案号 25A312）将决定库克是否可以继续担任美联储州长。</p>
<p>此前，特朗普政府指控库克在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为——这一指控由联邦住房金融局局长威廉·普尔特提出——并通过社交媒体宣布解除她的职务。库克立即提起诉讼，并获得初步禁令，阻止她被解除职务。</p>
<p>瑞银指出，此案直接挑战了《美联储法》中嵌入的 “正当理由” 解除保护，这限制了总统解除美联储州长的能力。</p>
<p>白宫辩称，总统保留广泛的权力来解除官员职务，即使在存在法定解除保护的情况下，只要有行政理由。</p>
<p>正如美国律师协会所观察到的，如果总统的理由获胜，这将 “有效地削弱” 美联储的独立性。如果一位州长可以通过行政指控被边缘化并被禁止投票，那么任何与总统偏好相悖的官员在未来都可能以借口被解除职务。</p>
<h2>最高法院对美联储的 “特殊豁免” 能否维持？</h2>
<p>瑞银强调，尽管最高法院之前削弱了对独立机构的保护，但美联储仍可能是一个例外。</p>
<p>在去年的特朗普诉威尔科克斯案中，法院维持了总统解除国家劳动关系委员会（NLRB）成员的权力。然而，首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨在多数意见中明确为美联储划定了一个 “防火墙”，指出美联储是一个 “结构上独特的准私营实体”，与其他行政机构不同。大法官埃琳娜·卡根在其异议中也强调，法院无意危及美联储。</p>
<p>本周的听证会将检验这个防火墙是否仍然存在。如果法院未能重申美联储的特殊性，市场必须为货币政策完全受行政控制的未来做好准备。</p>
<h2>DOJ 传票与美联储总部 “装修丑闻”</h2>
<p>除了法庭斗争外，美国政府与美联储之间的紧张关系已升级为公开对抗。</p>
<p>司法部已向美联储及鲍威尔本人发出大陪审团传票，调查鲍威尔是否在美联储总部装修项目的管理和成本超支方面误导国会。瑞银认为这可能是试图解除鲍威尔职务的前奏。</p>
<p>鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期将于 2026 年 5 月 15 日结束，但他作为州长的任期将持续到 2028 年 1 月 31 日。</p>
<p>分析师指出，如果政府施加刑事指控，而参议院共和党人（如承诺阻止提名的参议员汤姆·蒂利斯）拒绝推进新任命，FOMC 可能会选择在鲍威尔的主席任期结束后继续保留他作为州长，甚至可能重新选举他为 FOMC 主席，以此作为抵御特朗普推动激进降息的屏障。</p>
<p>瑞银警告称，投资者正进入一个 “颠簸的 2026 年”。如果本周的库克裁决对美联储不利，或者鲍威尔被进一步逼入绝境，市场对美联储独立性的信心可能会崩溃。本周不仅仅是一场法律斗争——它是对以美元计价资产基础逻辑的压力测试。市场的方向性反应已经很明显：美元下跌，股票下跌，国债下跌。</p>

特朗普媒体科技集团

<p>瑞士银行直言不讳地表示，此次审判关系到美联储独立性的生存。如果法院裁定白宫可以 “有理由” 解雇丽莎·库克，那么鲍威尔被罢免的法律途径将完全打开。以数据为驱动的货币政策逻辑可能瞬间崩溃，投资者必须为行政权力完全接管货币政策做好准备。市场反应的方向已经非常明确——美元下跌，美国股市下跌，美国债券下跌</p>

<p>This Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear Trump v. Cook. This is not merely a personnel dispute; it is shaping up to be a <strong>“judgment day” for the Federal Reserve as an independent central bank</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周二，美国最高法院将审理特朗普诉库克案。这不仅仅是一起人事争议；它正在成为美联储作为独立中央银行的 <strong>“审判日”</strong>。</p>
</div><p>According to information from Zhuifeng Trading Desk, UBS stated bluntly in a report on the 16th that the case is existential for the Fed’s independence. If the Court rules that the White House may bypass the protections of the Federal Reserve Act and remove Governor Lisa Cook “for cause,” the legal door to dismissing Chair Jerome Powell would be kicked wide open.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据追风交易台的信息，瑞银在 16 日的报告中直言不讳地表示，此案对美联储的独立性至关重要。如果法院裁定白宫可以绕过《美联储法》的保护，因 “正当理由” 解除库克州长的职务，那么解雇主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的法律大门将被彻底打开。</p>
</div><p>Such a ruling would risk the immediate collapse of data-driven monetary policymaking, replacing it with politically directed rate cuts. Once this line of defense is breached, the pricing frameworks for the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and U.S. equities would face a long-term structural repricing. UBS warns that 2026 is destined to be turbulent—and this week is the epicenter of the shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这样的裁决将冒着立即破坏数据驱动的货币政策制定的风险，取而代之的是政治导向的降息。一旦这条防线被突破，美元、国债和美国股票的定价框架将面临长期的结构性重新定价。瑞银警告称，2026 年注定将动荡不安，而本周正是冲击的震中。</p>
</div><h2>The “Judgment Day” That Could Decide the Fed’s Fate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>可能决定美联储命运的 “审判日”</h2>
</div><p>This week’s Supreme Court hearing (Docket No. 25A312) will determine whether Lisa Cook can continue serving as a Federal Reserve governor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的最高法院听证会（案号 25A312）将决定库克是否可以继续担任美联储州长。</p>
</div><p>Previously, the Trump administration accused Cook of alleged fraud in a mortgage application—a claim raised by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte—and announced her dismissal via social media. Cook immediately filed suit and obtained a preliminary injunction preventing her removal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此前，特朗普政府指控库克在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为——这一指控由联邦住房金融局局长威廉·普尔特提出——并通过社交媒体宣布解除她的职务。库克立即提起诉讼，并获得初步禁令，阻止她被解除职务。</p>
</div><p>UBS notes that the case directly challenges the “for cause” removal protections embedded in the Federal Reserve Act, which limit a president’s ability to dismiss Fed governors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银指出，此案直接挑战了《美联储法》中嵌入的 “正当理由” 解除保护，这限制了总统解除美联储州长的能力。</p>
</div><p>The White House argues that the president retains broad authority to remove officials, even when statutory removal protections exist, provided there are administrative grounds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫辩称，总统保留广泛的权力来解除官员职务，即使在存在法定解除保护的情况下，只要有行政理由。</p>
</div><p>As the American Bar Association has observed, if the president’s reasoning prevails, it would “effectively hollow out” the Fed’s independence. If a governor can be sidelined through administrative allegations and barred from voting, then any official whose decisions contradict presidential preferences could, in the future, be removed under pretext.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如美国律师协会所观察到的，如果总统的理由获胜，这将 “有效地削弱” 美联储的独立性。如果一位州长可以通过行政指控被边缘化并被禁止投票，那么任何与总统偏好相悖的官员在未来都可能以借口被解除职务。</p>
</div><h2>Can the Supreme Court’s “Special Exemption” for the Fed Hold?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最高法院对美联储的 “特殊豁免” 能否维持？</h2>
</div><p>UBS emphasizes that while the Supreme Court has previously weakened protections for independent agencies, the Federal Reserve may still be an exception.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银强调，尽管最高法院之前削弱了对独立机构的保护，但美联储仍可能是一个例外。</p>
</div><p>In last year’s Trump v. Wilcox case, the Court upheld the president’s authority to dismiss members of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). However, Chief Justice John Roberts explicitly carved out a “firewall” for the Federal Reserve in the majority opinion, stating that the Fed is a “structurally unique, quasi-private entity” distinct from other executive agencies. Justice Elena Kagan, in her dissent, also underscored that the Court had no intention of jeopardizing the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在去年的特朗普诉威尔科克斯案中，法院维持了总统解除国家劳动关系委员会（NLRB）成员的权力。然而，首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨在多数意见中明确为美联储划定了一个 “防火墙”，指出美联储是一个 “结构上独特的准私营实体”，与其他行政机构不同。大法官埃琳娜·卡根在其异议中也强调，法院无意危及美联储。</p>
</div><p>This week’s hearing will test whether that firewall still stands. If the Court fails to reaffirm that the Fed is different, markets must prepare for a future in which monetary policy falls fully under executive control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的听证会将检验这个防火墙是否仍然存在。如果法院未能重申美联储的特殊性，市场必须为货币政策完全受行政控制的未来做好准备。</p>
</div><h2>DOJ Subpoenas and the Fed Headquarters “Renovation Scandal”</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>DOJ 传票与美联储总部 “装修丑闻”</h2>
</div><p>Beyond the courtroom battle, tensions between the U.S. administration and the Federal Reserve have escalated into an open confrontation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了法庭斗争外，美国政府与美联储之间的紧张关系已升级为公开对抗。</p>
</div><p>The Department of Justice has issued grand jury subpoenas to the Fed and to Powell himself, investigating whether Powell misled Congress regarding the management and cost overruns of the Fed’s headquarters renovation project. UBS views this as a potential prelude to an attempt to remove Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>司法部已向美联储及鲍威尔本人发出大陪审团传票，调查鲍威尔是否在美联储总部装修项目的管理和成本超支方面误导国会。瑞银认为这可能是试图解除鲍威尔职务的前奏。</p>
</div><p>Powell’s term as Fed chair ends on May 15, 2026, but his term as a governor runs through January 31, 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期将于 2026 年 5 月 15 日结束，但他作为州长的任期将持续到 2028 年 1 月 31 日。</p>
</div><p>Analysts note that if the administration presses criminal charges, and if Senate Republicans—such as Senator Thom Tillis, who has vowed to block nominations—refuse to advance new appointments, the FOMC could choose to keep Powell on as a governor after his chairmanship ends, and may even re-elect him as FOMC chair, using him as a bulwark against Trump’s push for aggressive rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出，如果政府施加刑事指控，而参议院共和党人（如承诺阻止提名的参议员汤姆·蒂利斯）拒绝推进新任命，FOMC 可能会选择在鲍威尔的主席任期结束后继续保留他作为州长，甚至可能重新选举他为 FOMC 主席，以此作为抵御特朗普推动激进降息的屏障。</p>
</div><p>UBS warns that investors are entering a “bumpy 2026.” If this week’s Cook ruling goes against the Fed, or if Powell is pushed further into a corner, market confidence in Federal Reserve independence could collapse. This week is not merely a legal battle—it is a stress test of the foundational logic underpinning dollar-denominated assets. The market’s directional response has already been clear: the dollar down, equities down, Treasuries down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银警告称，投资者正进入一个 “颠簸的 2026 年”。如果本周的库克裁决对美联储不利，或者鲍威尔被进一步逼入绝境，市场对美联储独立性的信心可能会崩溃。本周不仅仅是一场法律斗争——它是对以美元计价资产基础逻辑的压力测试。市场的方向性反应已经很明显：美元下跌，股票下跌，国债下跌。</p>
</div>

The watershed moment for the independence of the Federal Reserve! Tomorrow, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear the "Trump v. Cook" case

- 美国最高法院将审理特朗普诉库克案，涉及美联储独立性。  
- 瑞银警告称，若裁定白宫可解除库克，将影响美元和国债定价。  
- 此案可能导致美联储面临政治导向的货币政策风险。

美联储独立性的关键时刻！明天，美国最高法院将审理 “Trump v. Cook” 案