<p>去年主要是抵押贷款利率下降，英格兰银行进行了四次降息，将基准利率从年初的 4.75% 降至 12 月的 3.75%。大多数情况下，抵押贷款机构也相应降低了他们的利率。</p>
<p>2026 年抵押贷款市场将会怎样更难预测：利率会继续下降吗？可负担性标准会放宽吗？抵押贷款市场将如何支持首次购房者？我们与五位抵押贷款专家进行了交谈，了解他们对产品、利率和市场整体情况的看法。</p>
<h2>1. 英格兰银行的两次降息</h2>
<p>在 2025 年多次降息后，大家一致认为今年的降息次数会减少，我们的专家预测在一到两次之间。“我预计英格兰银行今年会进行两次降息：一次在春季大约四月，另一次在年底。由于经济疲软和通胀缓解，” 埃弗里斯抵押贷款服务公司的董事约翰·埃弗里斯表示。</p>
<p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>关于第二抵押贷款你需要知道的一切</strong></p>
<p>“我们预计到年底英格兰银行会再降息两次，” Tembo 的创始人兼首席执行官理查德·达纳表示。“然而，放松的速度可能会是渐进的，因为最近的数据表明，经济在通胀和增长方面看起来更具韧性。”</p>
<p>维利尔斯公司的创始人妮可·扎利斯则更加谨慎，预测可能会有一次降息而不是两次。“市场预测会有一次明确的降息，第二次降息的可能性为 30%。虽然利率可能会放松，但我们不太可能很快回到超低借贷的状态，” 她说。</p>
<h2>2. 针对特定群体放宽可负担性标准</h2>
<p>在 2025 年底，贷款机构普遍放宽了可负担性标准，尽管这一趋势在 2026 年将继续，但我们的专家认为这将限于特定借款人。</p>
<p>“我们已经看到某些群体的资格标准在放宽，包括自雇借款人和外国国籍人士，” 达纳表示。“与其对所有人进行普遍放宽，更可能的是我们会看到有针对性的灵活性，贷款机构会调整他们的标准，以更好地反映现代工作模式和更为多样化的借款人基础。”</p>
<p>“一般来说，我预计对于收入稳定的专业人士（如教师、NHS 工作人员、公务员）、拥有 2-3 年清晰一致账目的自雇借款人以及有保留利润的有限责任公司董事，会有一些放宽，” 扎利斯表示。</p>
<p>埃弗里斯表示同意，并指出他听说有一家贷款机构将 “为教师和教育专业人士提供七倍于他们收入的贷款，这在以前是闻所未闻的”。</p>
<p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>如何减少你的印花税账单</strong></p>
<h2>3. 更加细致的承保</h2>
<p>近年来，承保变得更加个性化和有针对性是另一个增长趋势。潜在借款人不太可能因一般原因被贷款机构拒绝，例如自雇或收入未达到所需的倍数。</p>
<p>“在资格方面，我们预计贷款机构将继续谨慎地扩大准入，但以有针对性的方式，” 肖布鲁克零售抵押贷款的商业总监史蒂夫·格里菲斯表示。“像首次购房者和自雇人士这样的特定群体可能会受益最多，承保将更加细致，更好地反映现实收入和可负担性。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48"/></p>
<p>专家们一致认为，今年英格兰银行的降息次数会减少，预测在一到两次之间。</p>
<h2>4. 更多的仅付息产品</h2>
<p>房价停滞、可负担性标准更严格以及越来越多房东的退出，使得仅付息抵押贷款在近年来失宠。</p>
<p>埃弗里斯认为，2026 年可能会出现反转，提供更多选择。“我们可能会看到贷款机构提供更多仅付息的选项，而这些选项在此之前是很难获得的。这些产品主要面向年收入在 75,000 到 100,000 英镑的高收入者，以便更广泛地获取这些产品，以及拥有强大股权的借款人。” 可负担性压力测试的放松也是这一趋势的原因。</p>
<h2>5. 固定利率主导市场</h2>
<p>根据英国金融机构的数据，2025 年固定利率抵押贷款占英国抵押贷款的 85%，这种主导地位看起来将继续。“借款人对固定利率抵押贷款的偏好依然强烈。固定的月供提供了稳定性，使家庭预算更容易，这是大多数家庭的重要考虑因素，” Together 的董事斯科特·克莱表示。</p>
<p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>“房地产投资的黄金时代” 结束了吗？</strong></p>
<p>“也就是说，随着利率继续下降，浮动利率或跟踪产品可能会变得更具吸引力。我们可能会看到顾问更频繁地推荐这些选项，特别是对于抵押贷款余额较小的老年借款人，他们对利率波动的暴露较少。”</p>
<h2>6. 关注首次购房者</h2>
<p>在 11 月的预算中没有首次购房者的倡议，但尽管如此，我们的专家预测 2026 年将是首次购房者的好年。“我们预计这将是首次购房者的丰收年，” 达纳表示。“随着利率的放松和可负担性的改善，过去几年推迟购房的人们有着显著的被压抑的需求。”</p>
<p>我们的专家预测，与其用新产品吸引首次购房者，不如对现有抵押贷款给予更多的关注。</p>
<p>“我们更可能看到对现有抵押贷款产品的改进，而不是引人注目的重大创新，” Griffiths 说。“对于首次购房者，这可能意味着更灵活的可负担能力评估、更高的收入倍数以及旨在帮助租户迈出第一步的产品。”</p>
<p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>从游泳池和水疗中心到双厨房，房地产开发商是否走得太远？</strong></p>
<h2>7. 创新小众产品</h2>
<p>然而，抵押贷款市场在小型小众产品方面可能会创新。“我们已经看到一家大型贷款机构在买房出租领域推出了针对 HMO 有限公司的跟踪抵押贷款，这是我在过去 10 年中未见过的，” Everest 说。</p>
<p>“我预测我们将看到绿色抵押贷款的创新（针对 EPC A-C 物业提供稍微更好的利率或费用）以及更多长期固定利率（10-15 年），旨在稳定而非便宜的头条利率，” Zalys 补充道。</p>
<p>Griffiths 也同意绿色抵押贷款将在 2026 年的市场中占据一席之地，“但迄今为止的接受度表明，贷款机构可能更关注实用激励措施，例如针对能源改善的现金返还，而不是全新的绿色产品。”</p>
<h2>8. 秋季抵押贷款交易</h2>
<p>许多人在获取抵押贷款的时机上没有太多选择：要么是在当前交易结束时，要么如果他们是首次购房者，则是在找到要购买的房产时。然而，如果在何时可以更换或进入新的抵押贷款交易上有一些余地，那么在接下来的 12 个月中你应该瞄准什么时候呢？</p>
<p>“今年获得抵押贷款的最佳时机是在 9 月和 10 月之间，” Everest 说。“到那时，我们将讨论第二次降息，这可能会在贷款机构的固定利率中考虑到这一点。”</p>
<p><strong>阅读更多：</strong></p>
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<p><strong><em>下载 Yahoo Finance 应用程序，适用于</em></strong> <strong><em>Apple</em></strong> <strong><em>和</em></strong> <strong><em>Android</em></strong> <strong><em>.</em></strong></p>

<p>专家预测，到 2026 年，抵押贷款市场将迎来一到两次英格兰银行的降息，重点是放宽对自雇借款人等特定群体的可负担性标准。信贷审核预计将变得更加细致，有利于首次购房者。仅付利息的产品可能会增加供应，而固定利率抵押贷款预计将继续主导市场。尽管预算中没有新的首次购房者倡议，但对这一群体的支持预计将增加。总体而言，市场预计将适应不断变化的经济条件和借款人的需求</p>

<p>Last year was all about mortgage rates coming down, with four Bank of England cuts, taking the base rate from 4.75% at the beginning of the year, to 3.75% by December. For the most part, mortgage lenders responded by reducing their rates too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年主要是抵押贷款利率下降，英格兰银行进行了四次降息，将基准利率从年初的 4.75% 降至 12 月的 3.75%。大多数情况下，抵押贷款机构也相应降低了他们的利率。</p>
</div><p>What 2026 will hold for the mortgage market is more difficult to predict: will rates continue with their downward trajectory? Will the affordability criteria be relaxed? How will the mortgage market support first-time buyers? We spoke to five mortgage experts to get their take on what will happen to products, rates and the market in general.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年抵押贷款市场将会怎样更难预测：利率会继续下降吗？可负担性标准会放宽吗？抵押贷款市场将如何支持首次购房者？我们与五位抵押贷款专家进行了交谈，了解他们对产品、利率和市场整体情况的看法。</p>
</div><h2>1. Two Bank of England rate cuts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 英格兰银行的两次降息</h2>
</div><p>After the multiple rate cuts of 2025, everyone agrees there will be fewer this year, with our experts predicting between one and two. “I expect the Bank of England will go for two rate cuts this year: one in the spring around April and one at the end of the year. Due to the economy weakening and inflation easing,” says John Everest, director at Everest Mortgage Services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年多次降息后，大家一致认为今年的降息次数会减少，我们的专家预测在一到两次之间。“我预计英格兰银行今年会进行两次降息：一次在春季大约四月，另一次在年底。由于经济疲软和通胀缓解，” 埃弗里斯抵押贷款服务公司的董事约翰·埃弗里斯表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>Everything you need to know about second charge mortgages</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>关于第二抵押贷款你需要知道的一切</strong></p>
</div><p>“We expect around two further rate cuts from the Bank of England by the end of the year,” says Richard Dana, founder and CEO of Tembo. “However, the pace of easing is likely to be gradual, as recent data suggests the economy is looking more resilient when it comes to both inflation and growth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们预计到年底英格兰银行会再降息两次，” Tembo 的创始人兼首席执行官理查德·达纳表示。“然而，放松的速度可能会是渐进的，因为最近的数据表明，经济在通胀和增长方面看起来更具韧性。”</p>
</div><p>Nicole Zalys, founder at Villiers &amp; Co, was more restrained and predicted there was more likely to be one cut than two. “Markets are predicting one definite cut and a 30% chance of a second cut happening. While rates should likely ease, we’re unlikely to return to ultra-cheap borrowing anytime soon,” she says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>维利尔斯公司的创始人妮可·扎利斯则更加谨慎，预测可能会有一次降息而不是两次。“市场预测会有一次明确的降息，第二次降息的可能性为 30%。虽然利率可能会放松，但我们不太可能很快回到超低借贷的状态，” 她说。</p>
</div><h2>2. Affordability criteria relaxed for certain groups</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 针对特定群体放宽可负担性标准</h2>
</div><p>At the end of 2025, lenders were easing their affordability criteria across the board and, while this will continue in 2026, our experts believe it will be limited to particular borrowers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年底，贷款机构普遍放宽了可负担性标准，尽管这一趋势在 2026 年将继续，但我们的专家认为这将限于特定借款人。</p>
</div><p>“We’re already seeing eligibility criteria soften for certain groups, including self-employed borrowers and foreign nationals,” says Dana. “Rather than a blanket loosening for everyone, it’s more likely we’ll see targeted flexibility, where lenders refine their criteria to better reflect modern working patterns and a more diverse borrower base.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们已经看到某些群体的资格标准在放宽，包括自雇借款人和外国国籍人士，” 达纳表示。“与其对所有人进行普遍放宽，更可能的是我们会看到有针对性的灵活性，贷款机构会调整他们的标准，以更好地反映现代工作模式和更为多样化的借款人基础。”</p>
</div><p>“In general, I would expect some softening for professionals with stable incomes (teachers, NHS, civil servants), self-employed borrowers with 2–3 years of clean, consistent accounts, and limited company directors with retained profits,” says Zalys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“一般来说，我预计对于收入稳定的专业人士（如教师、NHS 工作人员、公务员）、拥有 2-3 年清晰一致账目的自雇借款人以及有保留利润的有限责任公司董事，会有一些放宽，” 扎利斯表示。</p>
</div><p>Everest agrees and flags that he’s heard of a lender that will “offer teachers and educational professionals seven times their income, which is unheard of until now”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃弗里斯表示同意，并指出他听说有一家贷款机构将 “为教师和教育专业人士提供七倍于他们收入的贷款，这在以前是闻所未闻的”。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>How to reduce your stamp duty bill</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>如何减少你的印花税账单</strong></p>
</div><h2>3. More nuanced underwriting</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 更加细致的承保</h2>
</div><p>Another trend which has been growing in previous years is underwriting becoming more personal and targeted. Would-be borrowers are less likely to be rejected by a lender for a general reason, for example being self-employed or because their income doesn’t quite make up the necessary multiples needed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，承保变得更加个性化和有针对性是另一个增长趋势。潜在借款人不太可能因一般原因被贷款机构拒绝，例如自雇或收入未达到所需的倍数。</p>
</div><p>“When it comes to eligibility, we expect lenders to continue cautiously broadening access, but in a targeted way,” says Steve Griffiths, commercial director of retail mortgages at Shawbrook. “Certain groups such as first-time buyers and the self-employed are likely to benefit most, with more nuanced underwriting that better reflects real-world income and affordability.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在资格方面，我们预计贷款机构将继续谨慎地扩大准入，但以有针对性的方式，” 肖布鲁克零售抵押贷款的商业总监史蒂夫·格里菲斯表示。“像首次购房者和自雇人士这样的特定群体可能会受益最多，承保将更加细致，更好地反映现实收入和可负担性。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48"/></p>
<p>Experts agree there will be fewer BoE rate cuts this year, predicting between one and two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家们一致认为，今年英格兰银行的降息次数会减少，预测在一到两次之间。</p>
</div><h2>4. More interest-only products</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 更多的仅付息产品</h2>
</div><p>House price stagnation, stricter affordability criteria and the exit of an increasing number of landlords, has seen interest-only mortgages fall out of favour in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房价停滞、可负担性标准更严格以及越来越多房东的退出，使得仅付息抵押贷款在近年来失宠。</p>
</div><p>Everest believes that 2026 might see a reversal with more of a selection on offer. “We could see more interest-only options from lenders, which up until now are difficult to obtain. These products are aimed at higher earners, generally of £75,000 to £100,000, to access these broadly and [those with] strong equity.” The relaxation of affordability stress tests is also behind this trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃弗里斯认为，2026 年可能会出现反转，提供更多选择。“我们可能会看到贷款机构提供更多仅付息的选项，而这些选项在此之前是很难获得的。这些产品主要面向年收入在 75,000 到 100,000 英镑的高收入者，以便更广泛地获取这些产品，以及拥有强大股权的借款人。” 可负担性压力测试的放松也是这一趋势的原因。</p>
</div><h2>5. Fixed rates to dominate market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 固定利率主导市场</h2>
</div><p>In 2025, according to UK Finance, fixed-rate mortgages accounted for 85% of UK mortgages and that dominance looks likely to continue. “Borrower preference for fixed-rate mortgages remains strong. Fixed monthly payments provide stability and make household budgeting easier, which is a key consideration for most families,” says Scott Clay, director at Together.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据英国金融机构的数据，2025 年固定利率抵押贷款占英国抵押贷款的 85%，这种主导地位看起来将继续。“借款人对固定利率抵押贷款的偏好依然强烈。固定的月供提供了稳定性，使家庭预算更容易，这是大多数家庭的重要考虑因素，” Together 的董事斯科特·克莱表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>Is the ‘golden age of property investing’ over?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>“房地产投资的黄金时代” 结束了吗？</strong></p>
</div><p>“That said, as rates continue to fall, variable or tracker products may become more attractive. We could see advisers recommending these options more frequently, particularly for older borrowers with smaller mortgage balances who are less exposed to interest rate fluctuations.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“也就是说，随着利率继续下降，浮动利率或跟踪产品可能会变得更具吸引力。我们可能会看到顾问更频繁地推荐这些选项，特别是对于抵押贷款余额较小的老年借款人，他们对利率波动的暴露较少。”</p>
</div><h2>6. Focus on FTBs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>6. 关注首次购房者</h2>
</div><p>There were no First-Time Buyer initiatives in the November budget but, despite this, our experts predict 2026 will be a good year for those starting out on the housing ladder. “We expect this to be a bumper year for first-time buyers,” says Dana. “With interest rates easing and affordability improving, there is significant pent-up demand from people who have delayed buying over the past couple of years.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 11 月的预算中没有首次购房者的倡议，但尽管如此，我们的专家预测 2026 年将是首次购房者的好年。“我们预计这将是首次购房者的丰收年，” 达纳表示。“随着利率的放松和可负担性的改善，过去几年推迟购房的人们有着显著的被压抑的需求。”</p>
</div><p>Rather than wooing FTBs with new products, our experts predict that they’ll be looked on more favourably for existing mortgages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的专家预测，与其用新产品吸引首次购房者，不如对现有抵押贷款给予更多的关注。</p>
</div><p>“We’re more likely to see refinements to existing mortgage products rather than big headline-grabbing innovations,” says Griffiths. “For first-time buyers, that could mean more flexible affordability assessments, higher income multiples and products designed to help renters take the first step onto the ladder.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们更可能看到对现有抵押贷款产品的改进，而不是引人注目的重大创新，” Griffiths 说。“对于首次购房者，这可能意味着更灵活的可负担能力评估、更高的收入倍数以及旨在帮助租户迈出第一步的产品。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>From swimming pools and spas to dual kitchens, have property developers gone too far?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阅读更多：</strong> <strong>从游泳池和水疗中心到双厨房，房地产开发商是否走得太远？</strong></p>
</div><h2>7. Innovative niche products</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>7. 创新小众产品</h2>
</div><p>The mortgage market is likely to innovate when it comes to smaller, niche products, however. “We've already seen a big lender in the buy-to-let space launch tracker mortgages for HMO limited companies which I’ve not seen in the past 10 years,” says Everest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，抵押贷款市场在小型小众产品方面可能会创新。“我们已经看到一家大型贷款机构在买房出租领域推出了针对 HMO 有限公司的跟踪抵押贷款，这是我在过去 10 年中未见过的，” Everest 说。</p>
</div><p>“I predict we will see innovations with green mortgages (slightly better rates or fees for EPC A–C properties) and more long-term fixes (10-15 years) aimed at stability rather than cheap headline rates,” adds Zalys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我预测我们将看到绿色抵押贷款的创新（针对 EPC A-C 物业提供稍微更好的利率或费用）以及更多长期固定利率（10-15 年），旨在稳定而非便宜的头条利率，” Zalys 补充道。</p>
</div><p>Griffiths also agrees that green mortgages will feature in the 2026 market “but uptake so far suggests lenders may focus more on practical incentives such as cashback for energy improvements rather than entirely new green products”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Griffiths 也同意绿色抵押贷款将在 2026 年的市场中占据一席之地，“但迄今为止的接受度表明，贷款机构可能更关注实用激励措施，例如针对能源改善的现金返还，而不是全新的绿色产品。”</p>
</div><h2>8. Autumn mortgage deals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>8. 秋季抵押贷款交易</h2>
</div><p>Many people don’t have much of a choice when it comes to the timing of getting a mortgage: either it’s at the end of their current deal or, if they’re a first-time buyer, when they’ve found a property to purchase. However, if there is some leeway in when you can swap or enter into a new mortgage deal, when should you aim for over the next 12 months?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人在获取抵押贷款的时机上没有太多选择：要么是在当前交易结束时，要么如果他们是首次购房者，则是在找到要购买的房产时。然而，如果在何时可以更换或进入新的抵押贷款交易上有一些余地，那么在接下来的 12 个月中你应该瞄准什么时候呢？</p>
</div><p>“The best time to get a mortgage this year would be between September and October,” says Everest. “By then, we’ll be talking about a second rate cut and this could be factored into the lenders fix rates prior to that happening.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“今年获得抵押贷款的最佳时机是在 9 月和 10 月之间，” Everest 说。“到那时，我们将讨论第二次降息，这可能会在贷款机构的固定利率中考虑到这一点。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阅读更多：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>How you can still make money from flipping property</li>
<li>What are branded residences and who’s buying them?</li>
<li>The pros and cons of buying property off-plan</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如何通过翻转房产仍然赚钱</li>
<li>什么是品牌住宅，谁在购买它们？</li>
<li>购买期房的利弊</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong><em>Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for</em></strong> <strong><em>Apple</em></strong> <strong><em>and</em></strong> <strong><em>Android</em></strong> <strong><em>.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>下载 Yahoo Finance 应用程序，适用于</em></strong> <strong><em>Apple</em></strong> <strong><em>和</em></strong> <strong><em>Android</em></strong> <strong><em>.</em></strong></p>
</div>

2026 年抵押贷款的八大预测