<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcxZjcz10aW55c3JnYhZoPTc1MBZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcxZjcz10aW55c3JnYhZoPTc1MBZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p><strong>美国加大了确保格林兰的国家安全努力，尽管其在该地区的存在已减少。</strong> 最新的尝试包括威胁对几国征收 10% 的关税，预计下个月开始，6 月将上升至 25%。这对许多欧盟国家来说太过分了，正在考虑一些报复措施。本周晚些时候将举行紧急领导人峰会。特朗普总统似乎正在利用《国际紧急经济权力法》来发出这一威胁。具有讽刺意味的是，最高法院可能在本周晚些时候裁定其使用的合法性。政府确保格林兰的努力也引发了两党的反对。今天是美国的国定假日，市场休市。请注意，周三，最高法院将听取总统试图解雇联邦储备委员会理事库克的上诉。</p>
<p><strong>美元交易偏重，股市大多下跌。</strong> 日本下个月确认举行快选后，JGB 的抛售似乎没有蔓延并引发全球走势。与周末前的猜测相反，今天似乎没有日本对汇率进行干预。美国与欧洲之间的紧张局势助推了贵金属的上涨。很难看到除了俄罗斯和中国以外的紧张局势受益者。</p>
<h3><strong>价格</strong></h3>
<p>G10</p>
<p>• <strong>欧元</strong> 上周以疲软的姿态收盘，低于 1.16 美元，今天早盘进一步下滑至 1.1575 美元以下。自去年 11 月底以来未曾出现这种情况。然而，随着美元负面发展的被认可，欧元完全恢复。欧元在达到 1.1640 美元后停滞。周末前的高点略高于 1.1625 美元，收盘高于此将完成表面看似看涨的技术外部日。今天到期的 2.1 欧元期权在 1.1585 美元。</p>
<p>• 在周末前，美元回落至接近 <strong>JPY157.80</strong>，今天略微延续至 JPY157.45。上周的低点约为 JPY157.50。然而，自低点记录以来，美元反弹至接近 JPY158.15 的会话高点。其恢复似乎与高市长高市长呼吁传闻中的快选有关，定于 2 月 8 日。财政政策仍然是她的主导，并表示她打算维持两年内不对食品征收销售税的承诺。估计这可能会花费约 JPY5 万亿（316 亿美元）。</p>
<p>• <strong>英镑</strong> 在周末前低点（1.3365 美元）上方开盘几点，迅速下跌至接近 1.3330 美元，然后趋于稳定。1.3300 美元区域大致是英镑自去年 11 月 21 日低点（约 1.3040 美元）到上个月初高点（约 1.3570 美元）反弹的中点。英镑恢复并略微超过上周五的高点（约 1.3415 美元）。收盘高于此及 200 日移动平均线（约 1.3405 美元）将显得积极。</p>
<p>• <strong>加元</strong> 在周末前被抛售至自去年 12 月以来的最低水平，但今天趋于稳定。上周五美元接近 CAD1.3930，但回落至接近 CAD1.3885 的周末前低点。图表支撑略低于 CAD1.3880，突破 CAD1.3850 可能增强对美元高位的信心。</p>
<p>• 在连续第三个交易日中，<strong>澳元</strong> 被限制在大约 0.6665 到 0.6710 的区间内。日常动量指标正在下降，但收盘高于 0.6700 将是有利的，自上周一以来未能做到这一点。然而，0.6715-30 区域的阻力可能是更为严峻的障碍。</p>
<p>EM</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 在安静的交易中小幅上涨至新高，但在欧洲活动中略微下滑。美元达到了自 2024 年 7 月以来的最低水平，接近 MXN17.61。随后回升至约 MXN17.67。上周五的高点略高于 MXN17.73。</p>
<p>• 中国人民银行今天将美元的参考汇率设定为 <strong>CNY7.0051</strong>，为 2023 年 5 月以来的最低水平。美元滑落至约 CNH6.9550。市场上已经有几个月的讨论称中国官员正在引导汇率朝 CNY7.0 靠拢。几乎已经实现。</p>
<p>• <strong>印度卢比</strong> 连续第三个交易日下跌。美元达到了 INR91.00。上个月创下的历史高点约为 INR91.0835。外国银行和印度进口商一直在购买美元。</p>
<h3><strong>其他市场</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>股市</strong> 今天表现艰难，尽管中国大陆股票、台湾和韩国等大型交易所逆势而上。欧洲的 Stoxx 600 下跌 1.4%，如果持续将是自 11 月中旬以来的最大跌幅。美国指数期货下跌 1.0%-1.5%。</p>
<p>• <strong>基准 10 年期收益率：</strong> 日本的选举公告使 10 年期 JGB 收益率几乎跳升八个基点至 2.25%。欧洲收益率大多窄幅混合。在期货交易中，尽管 JGB 收益率上涨，美国收益率也在下降。</p>
<p>• <strong>黄金</strong> 和白银的价格已达到创纪录高位。黄金达到了 4690 美元，现在接近 4967 美元。白银突破 94 美元，现在接近 93.30 美元。</p>
<p>• 3 月 <strong>WTI</strong> 轻油回落至五天低点，约为 58.55 美元。周末前的低点接近 58.80 美元，现在徘徊在该区域。</p>
<h3><strong>数据</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天公布了 12 月的消费者物价指数（CPI）。考虑到基数效应，彭博社调查中 0.2% 的中位数预测下降将使得同比增速保持在 2.2%。核心通胀率较为坚挺（11 月为 2.8%），但中央银行行长麦克勒姆表示官员们认为核心通胀率有些被夸大。中央银行上个月表示不确定下一次利率调整的时机。市场相信中央银行在上半年将保持观望。掉期市场预计在年底前加息的概率约为 60%。</p>
<p>• <strong>日本</strong> 报告 11 月核心机械订单下降 11%，抵消了 10 月 7.0% 的增长。此次下降约为彭博社调查中经济学家预测的两倍。11 月工业产出的最终读数修正了之前的低迷，初步估计为下降 2.7%，而非 2.6%。这之前 10 月增长了 1.5%。第三季度工业产出略有下滑。服务业指数在 11 月下降 0.2%，而 10 月增长了 0.8%。第三季度累计增长 0.1%。日本银行将在本周末召开会议，但官员们并未为市场准备任何政策变动，掉期市场对其维持现状充满信心。</p>
<p>• <strong>中国</strong> 报告称，世界第二大经济体在 2025 年第四季度增长了 1.2%，同比增速为 4.5%。12 月的具体数据喜忧参半。从同比来看，零售销售增速从 1.3% 放缓至 0.9%，为疫情以来的最低水平，而工业产出从 11 月的 4.8% 上升至 5.2%，为三个月以来的最好表现。固定资产投资在年初至今的同比基础上收缩了 3.8%，而第三季度下降为 2.6%。住宅销售在同一基础上持续下滑，而新房和二手房价格自 2023 年 4 月以来持续走软，上次上涨是在 2021 年中期。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
<p>未来一周：自圣诞节以来美元的上涨修正可能进入最后阶段</p>
<p>美元本周表现疲软，但仍在整合区间内</p>
<p>美元坚挺但正在整合中</p>

<p>美国正在加大力度确保格林兰的国家安全，威胁对多个欧盟国家征收 10% 的关税，并将在 6 月前提升至 25%。这引发了欧盟可能的报复以及国家紧急峰会。在这些紧张局势下，美元交易走低，而贵金属价格上涨。欧元在 1.16 美元左右波动，加元在触及低点后趋于稳定。全球股市下跌，欧洲股票大幅下滑。日本即将举行的快闪选举以及欧洲债券收益率的混合情况进一步复杂化了局势</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p><strong>The US stepped up its attempt to secure Greenland for national security purposes, even though it has reduced its presence there.</strong> The latest attempt included a threat to impose 10% tariffs on several EU countries starting next month and would rise to 25% in June. This is too much for many EU countries and some retaliation is being considered. An emergency leader summit will be held later this week. President Trump appears to be using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to authority to make the threat. Ironically, the Supreme Court could rule on the legality of its use later this week. The administration’s effort to secure Greenland also is spurring bipartisan opposition. Today is a national holiday in the US and the markets are closed. Note the Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear the appeal on the president’s effort to fire Governor Cook from the Federal Reserve Board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美国加大了确保格林兰的国家安全努力，尽管其在该地区的存在已减少。</strong> 最新的尝试包括威胁对几国征收 10% 的关税，预计下个月开始，6 月将上升至 25%。这对许多欧盟国家来说太过分了，正在考虑一些报复措施。本周晚些时候将举行紧急领导人峰会。特朗普总统似乎正在利用《国际紧急经济权力法》来发出这一威胁。具有讽刺意味的是，最高法院可能在本周晚些时候裁定其使用的合法性。政府确保格林兰的努力也引发了两党的反对。今天是美国的国定假日，市场休市。请注意，周三，最高法院将听取总统试图解雇联邦储备委员会理事库克的上诉。</p>
</div><p><strong>The dollar has trading with a heavier bias and equities are mostly lower.</strong> The sell-off in JGBs following confirmation of a snap election in Japan next month does not appear to be spilled over and to spur a global move. Contrary to the pre-weekend speculation, there did not appear to be Japanese intervention on the exchange rate today. The heightened tensions between the US and Europe have helped lift the precious metals. It is hard to see the beneficiaries of the tension outside of Russia and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美元交易偏重，股市大多下跌。</strong> 日本下个月确认举行快选后，JGB 的抛售似乎没有蔓延并引发全球走势。与周末前的猜测相反，今天似乎没有日本对汇率进行干预。美国与欧洲之间的紧张局势助推了贵金属的上涨。很难看到除了俄罗斯和中国以外的紧张局势受益者。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Prices</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>价格</strong></h3>
</div><p>G10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G10</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>euro</strong> settled last week on a soft note, below $1.16 and eased below $1.1575 in early dealings today. It has not been here since the end of last November. However, the euro recovered fully as the dollar-negativity of the developments was appreciated. The euro reached $1.1640 before stalling. The pre-weekend high was a little above $1.1625, and a close above there complete the ostensibly bullish technical outside day. Options for 2.1 euros at $1.1585 expire today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>欧元</strong> 上周以疲软的姿态收盘，低于 1.16 美元，今天早盘进一步下滑至 1.1575 美元以下。自去年 11 月底以来未曾出现这种情况。然而，随着美元负面发展的被认可，欧元完全恢复。欧元在达到 1.1640 美元后停滞。周末前的高点略高于 1.1625 美元，收盘高于此将完成表面看似看涨的技术外部日。今天到期的 2.1 欧元期权在 1.1585 美元。</p>
</div><p>• The dollar’s pullback seen before the weekend to almost <strong>JPY157.80</strong> was extended slightly through JPY157.45 today. Last week’s low was about JPY157.50. However, since the low was recorded the dollar rebounded to the session high near JPY158.15. Its recovery appeared linked to Prime Minister Takaichi calling for the much-rumored snap election for February 8. Fiscal policy remains her lead and has signaled her intention to maintain her commitment not to apply the sales tax on food for two years. Estimates suggest it could cost around JPY5 trillion ($31.6 bln).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在周末前，美元回落至接近 <strong>JPY157.80</strong>，今天略微延续至 JPY157.45。上周的低点约为 JPY157.50。然而，自低点记录以来，美元反弹至接近 JPY158.15 的会话高点。其恢复似乎与高市长高市长呼吁传闻中的快选有关，定于 2 月 8 日。财政政策仍然是她的主导，并表示她打算维持两年内不对食品征收销售税的承诺。估计这可能会花费约 JPY5 万亿（316 亿美元）。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Sterling</strong> opened a few ticks above the pre-weekend low ($1.3365) and quickly dropped to nearly $1.3330 before steadying. The $1.3300 area is roughly the halfway point of sterling’s rally from last November 21 low (~$1.3040) to a high early last month (~$!.3570). Sterling recovery and rose slightly through last Friday’s high (~$1.3415). A close above there and the 200-day moving average (~$1.3405) would appear constructive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>英镑</strong> 在周末前低点（1.3365 美元）上方开盘几点，迅速下跌至接近 1.3330 美元，然后趋于稳定。1.3300 美元区域大致是英镑自去年 11 月 21 日低点（约 1.3040 美元）到上个月初高点（约 1.3570 美元）反弹的中点。英镑恢复并略微超过上周五的高点（约 1.3415 美元）。收盘高于此及 200 日移动平均线（约 1.3405 美元）将显得积极。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Canadian dollar</strong> was sold to its lowest level before the weekend since early December, but it has steadied today. The US dollar reached nearly CAD1.3930 last Friday but returned to the pre-weekend low near CAD1.3885. Chart support is seen slightly below CAD1.3880, and a break of CAD1.3850 could boost confidence a greenback high may be in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>加元</strong> 在周末前被抛售至自去年 12 月以来的最低水平，但今天趋于稳定。上周五美元接近 CAD1.3930，但回落至接近 CAD1.3885 的周末前低点。图表支撑略低于 CAD1.3880，突破 CAD1.3850 可能增强对美元高位的信心。</p>
</div><p>• For the third consecutive session, the <strong>Australian dollar</strong> has been confined to a roughly $0.6665 to $0.6710 range. The daily momentum indicators are falling but a close above $0.6700, which it has not been able to do since last Monday, would be helpful. However, resistance in the $0.6715-30 area may be the more formidable hurdle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在连续第三个交易日中，<strong>澳元</strong> 被限制在大约 0.6665 到 0.6710 的区间内。日常动量指标正在下降，但收盘高于 0.6700 将是有利的，自上周一以来未能做到这一点。然而，0.6715-30 区域的阻力可能是更为严峻的障碍。</p>
</div><p>EM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EM</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Mexican peso</strong> edged to a new high today in quiet turnover but has pushed slightly lower in European activity. The dollar reached its lowest level since July 2024 near MXN17.61. It recovered to around MXN17.67. Last Friday’s high was a little above MXN17.73.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 在安静的交易中小幅上涨至新高，但在欧洲活动中略微下滑。美元达到了自 2024 年 7 月以来的最低水平，接近 MXN17.61。随后回升至约 MXN17.67。上周五的高点略高于 MXN17.73。</p>
</div><p>• The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at <strong>CNY7.0051</strong> today, its lowest level since May 2023. The greenback slipped to about CNH6.9550. There has been talk in the markets for the past few months that Chinese officials were guiding the fix toward CNY7.0. It has almost been achieved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 中国人民银行今天将美元的参考汇率设定为 <strong>CNY7.0051</strong>，为 2023 年 5 月以来的最低水平。美元滑落至约 CNH6.9550。市场上已经有几个月的讨论称中国官员正在引导汇率朝 CNY7.0 靠拢。几乎已经实现。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Indian rupee</strong> fell for the third consecutive session. The dollar reached INR91.00. The record-high set last month was about INR91.0835. Foreign banks and Indian importers have been buying dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>印度卢比</strong> 连续第三个交易日下跌。美元达到了 INR91.00。上个月创下的历史高点约为 INR91.0835。外国银行和印度进口商一直在购买美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Other Markets</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>其他市场</strong></h3>
</div><p>• <strong>Equities</strong> are having a tough day, though mainland Chinese stocks, and Taiwan and South Korea were among the large bourses that bucked the trend. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off 1.4%, which if sustained would be the large drop since mid-November. US index futures are off 1.0%-1.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>股市</strong> 今天表现艰难，尽管中国大陆股票、台湾和韩国等大型交易所逆势而上。欧洲的 Stoxx 600 下跌 1.4%，如果持续将是自 11 月中旬以来的最大跌幅。美国指数期货下跌 1.0%-1.5%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Benchmark 10-year yields:</strong> The election announcement in Japan saw the 10-year JGB yield jump almost eight basis points to 2.25%. European yields are mostly narrowly mixed. In futures trading US yields are also lower despite the jump in JGB yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>基准 10 年期收益率：</strong> 日本的选举公告使 10 年期 JGB 收益率几乎跳升八个基点至 2.25%。欧洲收益率大多窄幅混合。在期货交易中，尽管 JGB 收益率上涨，美国收益率也在下降。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Gold</strong> and Silver have been bid to record highs. Gold reached $4690 and is now closer to $4967. Silver poked above $94 and is now near $93.30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>黄金</strong> 和白银的价格已达到创纪录高位。黄金达到了 4690 美元，现在接近 4967 美元。白银突破 94 美元，现在接近 93.30 美元。</p>
</div><p>• March <strong>WTI</strong> eased to a five-day low around $58.55. The pre-weekend low was closer to $58.80, and it is straddling that area now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 3 月 <strong>WTI</strong> 轻油回落至五天低点，约为 58.55 美元。周末前的低点接近 58.80 美元，现在徘徊在该区域。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Data</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>数据</strong></h3>
</div><p>• <strong>Canada</strong> reports December CPI today. Given the base effect, the 0.2% decline of the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey would allow the year-over-year rate to hold steady at 2.2%. The underlying core rates have been firmer (2.8% in November) but central bank governor Macklem has suggested officials see the underlying rates as a bit exaggerated. The central bank said last month it is not sure the timing of the direction of the next rate adjustment. The market is convinced that the central bank is on the sidelines in the first half. The swaps market is discounting about a 60% chance of a hike before the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天公布了 12 月的消费者物价指数（CPI）。考虑到基数效应，彭博社调查中 0.2% 的中位数预测下降将使得同比增速保持在 2.2%。核心通胀率较为坚挺（11 月为 2.8%），但中央银行行长麦克勒姆表示官员们认为核心通胀率有些被夸大。中央银行上个月表示不确定下一次利率调整的时机。市场相信中央银行在上半年将保持观望。掉期市场预计在年底前加息的概率约为 60%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Japan</strong> reported an 11% drop in core machine orders in November, which offset the 7.0% jump in October. The drop was around twice what the economists in Bloomberg’s poll projected. The final reading of November industrial output revised the poor, the preliminary estimate to a 2.7% decline rather than 2.6% decline. It follows a 1.5% gain in October. Industrial output slipped slightly in Q3. The tertiary industry index (services) slipped by 0.2% in November after a 0.8% increase in October. It rose a cumulative 0.1% in Q3. The BOJ meets at the end of the week, but officials have not prepared the market for a move, and the swaps market is confident that it will stand pat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>日本</strong> 报告 11 月核心机械订单下降 11%，抵消了 10 月 7.0% 的增长。此次下降约为彭博社调查中经济学家预测的两倍。11 月工业产出的最终读数修正了之前的低迷，初步估计为下降 2.7%，而非 2.6%。这之前 10 月增长了 1.5%。第三季度工业产出略有下滑。服务业指数在 11 月下降 0.2%，而 10 月增长了 0.8%。第三季度累计增长 0.1%。日本银行将在本周末召开会议，但官员们并未为市场准备任何政策变动，掉期市场对其维持现状充满信心。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>China</strong> reported the world’s second-largest economy grew by 1.2% in Q4 25 for a 4.5% year-over-year pace. The December details were mixed. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales slowed to 0.9% from 1.3%, the weakest since Covid, while industrial output rose 5.2% from 4.8% in November, the best in three months. Fixed asset investment contracted by 3.8% on a year-over-year year-to-date basis form a 2.6% drop in Q3. Residential property sales continued to slide on the same basis, while new and used house prices softened as they have since April 2023, the last time they increased. The peak though was around the middle of 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>中国</strong> 报告称，世界第二大经济体在 2025 年第四季度增长了 1.2%，同比增速为 4.5%。12 月的具体数据喜忧参半。从同比来看，零售销售增速从 1.3% 放缓至 0.9%，为疫情以来的最低水平，而工业产出从 11 月的 4.8% 上升至 5.2%，为三个月以来的最好表现。固定资产投资在年初至今的同比基础上收缩了 3.8%，而第三季度下降为 2.6%。住宅销售在同一基础上持续下滑，而新房和二手房价格自 2023 年 4 月以来持续走软，上次上涨是在 2021 年中期。</p>
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