<p>预测市场对美国未来可能收购格林兰的想法赋予了越来越高的概率，尽管交易者对近期发生任何事情仍持怀疑态度。</p>
<p>Kalshi 交易者预计到 2026 年 5 月这一概率为 13%，到 2027 年之前上升至 27%，到特朗普总统任期结束的 2029 年达到 42%。</p>
<p>该市场的交易量，即在此市场上下注的总金额，略超过 360 万美元。</p>
<p><strong>特朗普为何关注格林兰及其重要性在三张地图中</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/kalshi-trade-greenland.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="931" height="523" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/kalshi-trade-greenland.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x"/></p>
<p>在线预测市场 Kalshi 对美国是否会收购格林兰进行了下注。(Kalshi)</p>
<p>与此同时，Polymarket 对年底前收购的概率定为 21%。Polymarket 的交易量略超过 1380 万美元。</p>
<p>Kalshi 和 Polymarket 允许用户用真钱下注，从政治和经济政策到体育和流行文化，将公众情绪转化为可交易的市场赔率。</p>
<p><strong>特朗普威胁对反对格林兰收购计划的国家征收关税</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/polymarket-greenland-trade.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="931" height="523" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/polymarket-greenland-trade.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x"/></p>
<p>在线预测市场 Polymarket 显示关于美国是否会收购格林兰的下注。(Polymarket)</p>
<p>最新的消息显示，特朗普将目光锁定在格林兰，这个世界上最大的岛屿，其战略价值随着冰层融化而上升，开启了新的航运通道和自然资源的获取。</p>
<p><strong>点击这里获取福克斯商业新闻的移动版</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/greenland-port.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="931" height="523" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/greenland-port.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x"/></p>
<p>格林兰努克港的景观。(Julia Wäschenbach/picture alliance/Getty Images)</p>
<p>这一变化的地理格局也引起了俄罗斯和中国的关注，突显了特朗普关注的地缘政治考量。</p>
<p>欧盟周日表示，将召开紧急会议以协调回应，因特朗普威胁对不支持美国收购格林兰的国家征收关税。</p>

<p>Kalshi 交易者估计，到 2029 年特朗普总统任期结束时，美国获得格林兰部分地区的机会为 42%，目前的赔率为 2026 年 5 月的 13% 和 2027 年前的 27%。Kalshi 上的交易量超过 360 万美元，而 Polymarket 显示的概率为 21%，交易量为 1380 万美元。这一兴趣受到格林兰在不断变化的地缘政治动态中战略价值的推动，因为特朗普威胁对反对收购的国家征收关税</p>

<p>Prediction markets are assigning rising odds to the idea that the United States could one day acquire part of Greenland, even as traders remain skeptical that anything happens in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测市场对美国未来可能收购格林兰的想法赋予了越来越高的概率，尽管交易者对近期发生任何事情仍持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>Kalshi traders put the odds at 13% by May 2026, rising to 27% before 2027 and 42% by the end of President Donald Trump's term in 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kalshi 交易者预计到 2026 年 5 月这一概率为 13%，到 2027 年之前上升至 27%，到特朗普总统任期结束的 2029 年达到 42%。</p>
</div><p>The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little more than $3.6 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该市场的交易量，即在此市场上下注的总金额，略超过 360 万美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>WHY TRUMP ZEROED IN ON GREENLAND AND WHY IT MATTERS IN 3 MAPS</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特朗普为何关注格林兰及其重要性在三张地图中</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/kalshi-trade-greenland.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x" alt="" original-src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/kalshi-trade-greenland.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1"/></p>
<p>Online prediction market Kalshi bet on whether the U.S. will acquire Greenland. (Kalshi)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在线预测市场 Kalshi 对美国是否会收购格林兰进行了下注。(Kalshi)</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Polymarket prices a 21% probability of an acquisition before year’s end. The trading volume on Polymarket is a little north of $13.8 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Polymarket 对年底前收购的概率定为 21%。Polymarket 的交易量略超过 1380 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kalshi 和 Polymarket 允许用户用真钱下注，从政治和经济政策到体育和流行文化，将公众情绪转化为可交易的市场赔率。</p>
</div><p><strong>TRUMP THREATENS TARIFFS ON COUNTRIES OPPOSING GREENLAND TAKEOVER PLANS</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特朗普威胁对反对格林兰收购计划的国家征收关税</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/polymarket-greenland-trade.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x" alt="" original-src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/polymarket-greenland-trade.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1"/></p>
<p>Online prediction market Polymarket showing bets on whether the U.S. will acquire Greenland. (Polymarket)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在线预测市场 Polymarket 显示关于美国是否会收购格林兰的下注。(Polymarket)</p>
</div><p>The latest revelation comes as Trump zeroes in on Greenland, the world’s largest island, whose strategic value has risen as melting ice opens new shipping lanes and access to natural resources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的消息显示，特朗普将目光锁定在格林兰，这个世界上最大的岛屿，其战略价值随着冰层融化而上升，开启了新的航运通道和自然资源的获取。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>点击这里获取福克斯商业新闻的移动版</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/greenland-port.png/query-dGw9MSZ2ZT0x" alt="" original-src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2026/01/931/523/greenland-port.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1"/></p>
<p>A view of a port in Nuuk, Greenland. (Julia Wäschenbach/picture alliance/Getty Images)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>格林兰努克港的景观。(Julia Wäschenbach/picture alliance/Getty Images)</p>
</div><p>That changing landscape has also drawn interest from Russia and China, underscoring the geopolitical calculations behind Trump’s focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化的地理格局也引起了俄罗斯和中国的关注，突显了特朗普关注的地缘政治考量。</p>
</div><p>The European Union said Sunday it will hold an emergency meeting to coordinate a response after Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that do not support a U.S. acquisition of Greenland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟周日表示，将召开紧急会议以协调回应，因特朗普威胁对不支持美国收购格林兰的国家征收关税。</p>
</div>

Kalshi 的交易员认为，在特朗普任期结束前达成格陵兰协议的可能性为 42%