<ul>
<li>黄金前景依然强劲看涨，本周初接近 $4,700 创下新高。</li>
<li>来自格林兰局势的地缘政治风险，以及中东和俄罗斯的冲突，持续支撑黄金需求。</li>
<li>现在所有目光都集中在美国 PCE 和 GDP 数据上，以寻找本周新的交易机会。</li>
</ul>
<p>黄金交易价格略低于历史最高点，背景依然明显看涨。针对格林兰的八个欧洲国家的关税威胁，加上俄罗斯、乌克兰和伊朗周围的地缘政治风险已经上升，触发了另一波风险厌恶情绪。</p>
<p>这种情况正在迫使投资者退出风险资产，重新回到传统避险资产，XAU/USD 是主要受益者之一。欧洲官员对华盛顿举动的批评以及未经过测试的反制措施的讨论，加剧了对更深层贸易冲突的担忧，而不仅仅是一次性的头条新闻。</p>
<p>与此同时，美元在重新定价美联储预期方面挣扎。市场在美联储可能不会如此激进放松的暗示后，减少了对 2026 年多次降息的押注，但美元仍然从近期高点回落。</p>
<p>贸易战头条新闻和对美国资产信心危机的担忧，抵消了通常来自于美联储较少鸽派路径的支持。此外，实际收益率的上升不足以显著增加持有无收益资产的机会成本。</p>
<p>中东局势升级的言辞以及对乌克兰关键基础设施潜在攻击的担忧，也在强化避险需求。黄金实际上将每个新头条视为地缘政治风险的期权溢价。大幅上涨至新高表明不仅是短期对冲，还有来自寻求多样化的长期投资者的兴趣，尤其是远离法定货币和以美国为中心的资产。</p>
<p>展望未来，主要的直接催化剂是美国数据发布，特别是 PCE 价格指数和最终 GDP。低于预期的数字将验证市场的谨慎增长前景，并可能延续黄金的上涨。另一方面，强劲的数据可能仅引发短暂的回调，因为强大的地缘政治和对美元的怀疑情绪依然存在。</p>
<h3><strong>黄金技术展望：强劲反弹触及超买区域</strong></h3>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/1-27.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/1-27.png"/></p>
<p>黄金 4 小时图</p>
<p>黄金以看涨缺口开盘，推高至接近 $4,700 的历史高点。价格在上周突破了接近 $4,550 的供应区，进行了回测，并再次回到 $4,618 的 20 周期移动平均线之上。相对强弱指数接近超买区域，表明可能会从 $4,690 的阻力位回调。</p>
<p>移动平均线排列紧密，显示出强劲的看涨趋势。下行空间可能受到 $4,550 的 50 周期移动平均线和供应转为需求区的限制，前方是 $4,500 的 100 周期移动平均线和 $4,400 的 200 周期移动平均线。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
<p>AUD/USD 预测：在澳大利亚就业数据和中国贸易逆风前的整合</p>
<p>GBP/USD 周度预测：美元飙升，涨幅收窄，关注通胀数据</p>
<p>EUR/USD 展望：在美联储与欧洲央行的分歧中，空头瞄准 1.1550</p>

<p>黄金前景看涨，接近 4,700 美元，主要受到格林兰、中东和俄罗斯的地缘政治风险影响。关税威胁和日益上升的风险厌恶情绪促使投资者重新回归黄金作为避险资产。由于降息预期降低，美国美元面临压力，而实际收益率仍然较低。即将发布的美国个人消费支出（PCE）和国内生产总值（GDP）数据可能会影响黄金的走势，较软的数据可能会延续其上涨趋势。技术指标显示出强劲的看涨趋势，但市场接近超买状态，暗示未来可能出现回调</p>

<ul>
<li>The gold outlook remains strongly bullish, hitting fresh all-time highs near $4,700 at the start of the week.</li>
<li>Geopolitical risks stemming from the Greenland situation, along with conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, keep gold demand underpinned.</li>
<li>All eyes are now on US PCE and GDP data to find fresh trading opportunities this week.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>黄金前景依然强劲看涨，本周初接近 $4,700 创下新高。</li>
<li>来自格林兰局势的地缘政治风险，以及中东和俄罗斯的冲突，持续支撑黄金需求。</li>
<li>现在所有目光都集中在美国 PCE 和 GDP 数据上，以寻找本周新的交易机会。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Gold is trading just below record highs, and the backdrop still clearly leans bullish. Tariff threats on eight European countries over Greenland, combined with already higher geopolitical risks around Russia?Ukraine and Iran, have triggered another wave of risk aversion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金交易价格略低于历史最高点，背景依然明显看涨。针对格林兰的八个欧洲国家的关税威胁，加上俄罗斯、乌克兰和伊朗周围的地缘政治风险已经上升，触发了另一波风险厌恶情绪。</p>
</div><p>The situation is pushing investors out of risk assets and back into traditional havens, with XAU/USD one of the primary beneficiaries. European officials’ criticism of Washington’s move and talk of untested countermeasures reinforce fears of a deeper trade conflict rather than a one-off headline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情况正在迫使投资者退出风险资产，重新回到传统避险资产，XAU/USD 是主要受益者之一。欧洲官员对华盛顿举动的批评以及未经过测试的反制措施的讨论，加剧了对更深层贸易冲突的担忧，而不仅仅是一次性的头条新闻。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the US dollar is struggling to capitalize on the repricing of Fed expectations. Markets have reduced bets on multiple rate cuts in 2026 after hints that the Fed may not ease as aggressively, yet the greenback has still retreated from recent highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美元在重新定价美联储预期方面挣扎。市场在美联储可能不会如此激进放松的暗示后，减少了对 2026 年多次降息的押注，但美元仍然从近期高点回落。</p>
</div><p>Trade?war headlines and a crisis of confidence in US assets are offsetting the support that usually comes from a less?dovish Fed path. Moreover, real yields are not rising enough to meaningfully increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贸易战头条新闻和对美国资产信心危机的担忧，抵消了通常来自于美联储较少鸽派路径的支持。此外，实际收益率的上升不足以显著增加持有无收益资产的机会成本。</p>
</div><p>Escalating rhetoric in the Middle East and concerns over potential attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine are also reinforcing safe-haven demand. Gold is effectively pricing each new headline as an option premium on geopolitical risk. Large moves to fresh record levels suggest not only short-term hedging but also growing interest from longer-horizon investors seeking diversification away from fiat and US-centric assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东局势升级的言辞以及对乌克兰关键基础设施潜在攻击的担忧，也在强化避险需求。黄金实际上将每个新头条视为地缘政治风险的期权溢价。大幅上涨至新高表明不仅是短期对冲，还有来自寻求多样化的长期投资者的兴趣，尤其是远离法定货币和以美国为中心的资产。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, the main immediate catalysts are US data releases, especially the PCE Price Index and final GDP. Softer?than?expected numbers would validate the market’s cautious growth outlook and likely extend gold’s upside. On the other hand, stronger data might spark only temporary pullbacks given the powerful geopolitical and dollar-skeptic undercurrent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，主要的直接催化剂是美国数据发布，特别是 PCE 价格指数和最终 GDP。低于预期的数字将验证市场的谨慎增长前景，并可能延续黄金的上涨。另一方面，强劲的数据可能仅引发短暂的回调，因为强大的地缘政治和对美元的怀疑情绪依然存在。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Gold Technical Outlook: Strong Rally Hits Overbought Area</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>黄金技术展望：强劲反弹触及超买区域</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/1-27.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/1-27.png"/></p>
<p>Gold 4-hour chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金 4 小时图</p>
</div><p>Gold opened the week with a bullish gap, pushing to a record high just under $4,700. The price broke the supply zone near $4,550 last week, retested, and moved back well above the 20-period MA at $4,618. The RSI is near the overbought zone, indicating a potential pullback from the $4,690 resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金以看涨缺口开盘，推高至接近 $4,700 的历史高点。价格在上周突破了接近 $4,550 的供应区，进行了回测，并再次回到 $4,618 的 20 周期移动平均线之上。相对强弱指数接近超买区域，表明可能会从 $4,690 的阻力位回调。</p>
</div><p>The MAs are stacked, revealing a strong bullish trend. The downside could be limited by the confluence of the 50-period MA and a supply-turned-demand zone at $4,550, ahead of the 100-period MA at $4,500 and the 200-period MA at $4,400.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>移动平均线排列紧密，显示出强劲的看涨趋势。下行空间可能受到 $4,550 的 50 周期移动平均线和供应转为需求区的限制，前方是 $4,500 的 100 周期移动平均线和 $4,400 的 200 周期移动平均线。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
</div><p>AUD/USD Forecast: Consolidation Ahead Of AUS Jobs Data, China Trade Headwinds</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AUD/USD 预测：在澳大利亚就业数据和中国贸易逆风前的整合</p>
</div><p>GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Gains Pared As Dollar Surges, Eyes On Inflation Data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GBP/USD 周度预测：美元飙升，涨幅收窄，关注通胀数据</p>
</div><p>EUR/USD Outlook: Bears Aiming For 1.1550 Amid Fed-ECB Divergence</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EUR/USD 展望：在美联储与欧洲央行的分歧中，空头瞄准 1.1550</p>
</div>

黄金前景：贸易战和地缘政治因素推动避险需求