<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 – 哈萨克斯坦石油中断</strong></h3>
<p>尽管 ICE 布伦特原油昨日小幅下跌，收盘下跌 0.3%，但在市场整体风险规避的情况下表现相对稳健。这是由于美国与欧洲之间关于特朗普总统对格林兰的要求重新出现的贸易紧张局势。美元走弱为石油及更广泛的商品市场提供了一定支持。ICE 布伦特原油的期货价差持续坚挺也将有助于提振市场，因为这表明现货实物市场趋紧。</p>
<p>在哈萨克斯坦，Tengizchevroil 因发电机发生两起火灾而暂时停止了在其 Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的生产。该生产商在 2025 年前三个季度的日产量约为 89 万桶。哈萨克斯坦最近几个月面临多次供应中断，包括来自俄罗斯 CPC 终端的出口受到无人机袭击的影响。</p>
<p>ICE 柴油裂解价差在最近几天重新走强，接近每桶 25 美元。欧洲中间馏分市场的强劲表现与欧盟对俄罗斯石油生产的精炼产品进口禁令相吻合。该禁令将于 1 月 21 日生效。尽管贸易流动有时间调整以适应禁令，但仍可能导致一些中断。该禁令将主要影响印度到欧洲的中间馏分流动。一些印度炼油商据报道正在调整原油采购，以继续向欧盟销售。</p>
<h3><strong>金属 - 黄金和白银创下新纪录，铜价反弹</strong></h3>
<p>随着地缘政治紧张局势升级，黄金和白银飙升至新纪录高位，推动了对避险资产的需求。最新的催化剂是美国与欧洲之间的摩擦加剧，特朗普对格林兰的控制权的强烈推动引发了对潜在跨大西洋贸易冲突的担忧。</p>
<p>黄金和白银都延续了年初至今的强劲涨幅。黄金上涨约 8%，而白银上涨 30%，在 2025 年已经表现出色的基础上进一步攀升。这一走势受到一系列地缘政治冲击的推动，包括美国逮捕委内瑞拉领导人以及华盛顿对格林兰立场的持续不确定性。</p>
<p>特朗普政府对美联储的反复攻击加剧了投资者对中央银行独立性的担忧，进一步加剧了贬值交易。随着美国债务水平上升和政策不确定性加剧，投资者更倾向于选择黄金和白银而非货币和政府债券。</p>
<p>在工业金属方面，铜价反弹至每吨 13,000 美元，经过上周的波动后回升。这一走势主要受到宏观经济和美元动态的推动。特朗普对多个欧洲国家的新关税威胁使美元走弱，激发了广泛的金属购买情绪。中国 GDP 符合政府目标，进一步支持了市场情绪。这有助于在几周的混合数据后稳定需求预期。</p>
<p>与此同时，LME 跟踪的美国仓库中的铜库存自 2025 年 9 月以来首次上升。截止昨日，库存增加了 950 吨，从零开始增长。这一增长跟随了相对定价的显著变化，LME 现货价格现在高于 Comex 前月期货，逆转了去年将大量铜引入美国并使美国以外市场紧张的模式。这表明，定义了 2025 年大部分时间的极端关税驱动扭曲可能开始正常化。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>捷克生产者价格下跌将影响 CPI</p>
<p>外汇日报：格林兰压力风险美元反弹</p>
<p>鲍威尔与民众对话</p>

<p>商品市场动态强调了美元疲软对市场的影响，特别是在能源和金属领域。由于火灾，哈萨克斯坦的石油生产受到干扰，而布伦特原油价格在更广泛的市场风险下保持稳定。由于地缘政治紧张局势，黄金和白银创下历史新高，黄金年初至今上涨了 8%，白银上涨了 30%。铜价反弹至每吨 13,000 美元，受到宏观动态和中国 GDP 表现的支持。报告还指出，美国仓库中的铜库存上升，表明在之前关税驱动的扭曲后，市场条件可能会趋于正常化</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy – Kazakh oil disruptions</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 – 哈萨克斯坦石油中断</strong></h3>
</div><p>While ICE Brent edged lower yesterday, settling 0.3% lower on the day, it held up relatively well amid the broader risk-off move in markets. This follows the re-emergence of trade tensions between the US and Europe over President Trump's Greenland demands.A weaker US dollar provided some support to oil and the broader commodities complex. Continued firmness in ICE Brent timespreads will also help buoy the market, as it suggests a tighter spot physical market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 ICE 布伦特原油昨日小幅下跌，收盘下跌 0.3%，但在市场整体风险规避的情况下表现相对稳健。这是由于美国与欧洲之间关于特朗普总统对格林兰的要求重新出现的贸易紧张局势。美元走弱为石油及更广泛的商品市场提供了一定支持。ICE 布伦特原油的期货价差持续坚挺也将有助于提振市场，因为这表明现货实物市场趋紧。</p>
</div><p>In Kazakhstan, Tengizchevroil temporarily stopped production at its Tengiz and Korolev fields after two fires broke out at power generators. The producer pumped around 890k b/d over the first three quarters of 2025. Kazakhstan has faced several supply disruptions in recent months, including exports from the CPC terminal in Russia, which were impacted by drone strikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在哈萨克斯坦，Tengizchevroil 因发电机发生两起火灾而暂时停止了在其 Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的生产。该生产商在 2025 年前三个季度的日产量约为 89 万桶。哈萨克斯坦最近几个月面临多次供应中断，包括来自俄罗斯 CPC 终端的出口受到无人机袭击的影响。</p>
</div><p>The ICE gasoil crack has seen renewed strength in recent days, edging back towards US$25/bbl. The strength in the European middle distillate market coincides with the EU’s ban on refined product imports produced from Russian oil. The ban comes into effect on 21 January. While trade flows have had time to adjust to the ban, it may still lead to some disruption. The ban will largely affect middle distillate flows from India to Europe. Some Indian refiners are reportedly adjusting their crude purchases to continue selling into the EU.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ICE 柴油裂解价差在最近几天重新走强，接近每桶 25 美元。欧洲中间馏分市场的强劲表现与欧盟对俄罗斯石油生产的精炼产品进口禁令相吻合。该禁令将于 1 月 21 日生效。尽管贸易流动有时间调整以适应禁令，但仍可能导致一些中断。该禁令将主要影响印度到欧洲的中间馏分流动。一些印度炼油商据报道正在调整原油采购，以继续向欧盟销售。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Metals - Gold and silver hit fresh records, copper rebounds</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>金属 - 黄金和白银创下新纪录，铜价反弹</strong></h3>
</div><p>Gold and silver surged to fresh record highs as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The latest catalyst is renewed friction between the US and Europe, with Trump’s intensifying push to take control of Greenland stoking concerns over a potential transatlantic trade conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着地缘政治紧张局势升级，黄金和白银飙升至新纪录高位，推动了对避险资产的需求。最新的催化剂是美国与欧洲之间的摩擦加剧，特朗普对格林兰的控制权的强烈推动引发了对潜在跨大西洋贸易冲突的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Both gold and silver have extended their strong year-to-date gains. Gold is up around 8%, while silver has climbed 30%, building on an already robust performance in 2025. The move has been driven by a series of geopolitical shocks, including the US arrest of Venezuela’s leader and the continued uncertainty surrounding Washington’s stance on Greenland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金和白银都延续了年初至今的强劲涨幅。黄金上涨约 8%，而白银上涨 30%，在 2025 年已经表现出色的基础上进一步攀升。这一走势受到一系列地缘政治冲击的推动，包括美国逮捕委内瑞拉领导人以及华盛顿对格林兰立场的持续不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the volatility, the Trump administration’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve intensified investor concerns about central bank independence. This has reinforced the debasement trade. Investors are favouring gold and silver over currencies and government bonds amid rising US debt levels and heightened policy unpredictability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府对美联储的反复攻击加剧了投资者对中央银行独立性的担忧，进一步加剧了贬值交易。随着美国债务水平上升和政策不确定性加剧，投资者更倾向于选择黄金和白银而非货币和政府债券。</p>
</div><p>In industrial metals, copper climbed toward $13,000/t, rebounding after last week’s volatility. The move was driven largely by macro and dollar dynamics. Trump’s threat of new tariffs on several European countries pushed the dollar lower, sparking broad-based metals buying. Sentiment was further supported by China’s GDP meeting the government’s target. This helped stabilise demand expectations following weeks of mixed data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在工业金属方面，铜价反弹至每吨 13,000 美元，经过上周的波动后回升。这一走势主要受到宏观经济和美元动态的推动。特朗普对多个欧洲国家的新关税威胁使美元走弱，激发了广泛的金属购买情绪。中国 GDP 符合政府目标，进一步支持了市场情绪。这有助于在几周的混合数据后稳定需求预期。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, copper inventories in US warehouses tracked by the LME rose for the first time since September 2025 <strong>.</strong> As of yesterday, they increased by 950 tonnes, climbing from zero. The build follows a notable flip in relative pricing with LME spot now trading above Comex front-month futures, reversing last year’s pattern that drew huge volumes of copper into the US and left ex-US markets tight. This suggests the extreme tariff-driven distortions that defined much of 2025 may be beginning to normalise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，LME 跟踪的美国仓库中的铜库存自 2025 年 9 月以来首次上升。截止昨日，库存增加了 950 吨，从零开始增长。这一增长跟随了相对定价的显著变化，LME 现货价格现在高于 Comex 前月期货，逆转了去年将大量铜引入美国并使美国以外市场紧张的模式。这表明，定义了 2025 年大部分时间的极端关税驱动扭曲可能开始正常化。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Falling Czech Producer Prices Will Shape CPI</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>捷克生产者价格下跌将影响 CPI</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Greenland Pressure Risks Dollar Blowback</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇日报：格林兰压力风险美元反弹</p>
</div><p>Powell To The People</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔与民众对话</p>
</div>

大宗商品动态：美元走软为市场带来了一些利好