<p>卡尼与中国签署贸易协议，背离美国政策</p>
<p>贸易专家表示，中国贸易对双倍非美国出口至关重要</p>
<p>专家警告与中国快速融合的风险</p>
<p>作者：普罗米特·穆克吉，安德鲁·米尔斯，费德里科·马乔尼</p>
<p>渥太华/多哈/迪拜，1 月 20 日（路透社）-</p>
<p>加拿大总理马克·卡尼试图通过与中国更紧密合作并签署较小的贸易协议来促进新的全球贸易秩序，但面临着加拿大仍然对美国经济依赖的巨大限制。</p>
<p>上周，卡尼在与中国签署协议时，推动了比他在欧洲的盟友更进一步的贸易多元化，旨在将加拿大塑造成在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税颠覆长期关系后，新的全球贸易秩序中的潜在领导者。</p>
<p>随着特朗普的外交政策变得更加激进和不可预测，像加拿大这样的国家迫切需要建立新的联盟和贸易伙伴关系。特朗普加大了对从北约成员国丹麦手中夺取格林兰主权的推动，促使欧盟考虑采取反制措施。</p>
<p>卡尼，前英格兰银行和加拿大银行行长，去年在选举中承诺建立新的经济联盟，以帮助加拿大应对特朗普的关税和对加拿大的吞并威胁。</p>
<p>在周一抵达达沃斯全球精英年会之前，他环游世界，访问了之前被加拿大忽视的国家。</p>
<p>“许多多边关系、机构、基于规则的系统，正因各国的各种决定而受到侵蚀，包括美国，” 卡尼在周日的多哈表示，他承诺在国防和安全方面加强合作，并表示在投资促进协议方面取得了进展。</p>
<p>“在有进展的地方，加拿大和志同道合的国家希望取得进展的地方，是通过多边协议，” 卡尼说，倡导在较少国家之间达成协议。</p>
<p>卡尼表示，加拿大已经在倡导成为欧盟与太平洋沿岸国家之间的桥梁。</p>
<p>“在这个动荡的时刻，加拿大将挺身而出并领导。我们将确保将愿意协助这一角色的国家带到谈判桌上，” 外交部长阿尼塔·阿南德在多哈接受路透社采访时表示。</p>
<h3>美国贸易依赖性</h3>
<p>欧盟也在加大贸易多元化的努力 - 在经过 25 年的谈判后与南美贸易集团梅 ercosur 签署协议，9 月与印度尼西亚达成协议，并更新与墨西哥的协议。欧盟已恢复与马来西亚、菲律宾、阿联酋和印度的贸易协议谈判。</p>
<p>但尽管欧盟对美国的商品出口依赖仅略超过 20%，加拿大仍将近 70% 的出口送往南方。</p>
<p>为了将对美国的商品出口减少 10%，加拿大必须将对中国、德国、法国、墨西哥、意大利和印度的出口翻倍，或者找到类似规模的国家，出口发展加拿大的高级经济学家普林斯·欧乌苏表示。</p>
<p>卡尼承诺在未来十年内将加拿大的非美国出口翻倍。贸易专家和经济学家表示，要实现这一目标，加拿大必须在很大程度上依赖中国，当前是其第二大贸易伙伴。</p>
<p>“我们必须非常谨慎……与中国的快速融合也会带来一些长期经济稳定性的问题，” 法律事务所 McMillan 的国际贸易合伙人兼联合负责人威廉·佩勒林表示。</p>
<p>他说，中国制造商有能力在几乎所有商品类别中迅速涌入加拿大市场。</p>
<p>中国对美国的出口去年下降，但对世界其他地区的出口大幅上升。</p>
<p>根据官方数据，加拿大对美国的出口份额在 10 月份降至 COVID-19 疫情年份之外的最低水平。但美国仍占所有出口的 67.3%。尽管政府希望向亚洲出售更多石油，但 90% 的加拿大原油仍然流向美国。</p>
<p>经济学家表示，加拿大对美国的出口份额在短期内不太可能进一步下降，许多公司在等待今年关于美墨加贸易协议谈判的结果。</p>
<h3>追求多项贸易协议</h3>
<p>上周，卡尼成为首位访问卡塔尔的加拿大总理，也是自 2017 年以来首位访问中国的总理。</p>
<p>在北京，卡尼表示，中国已成为比美国更可预测的合作伙伴。他预计将很快访问印度，此前两国恢复了外交关系，并同意重启在其前任贾斯廷·特鲁多领导下停滞的贸易谈判。</p>
<p>加拿大还与厄瓜多尔和印度尼西亚达成了贸易协议，并与阿联酋签署了投资协议。</p>
<p>卡尼的贸易部长马宁德·西杜表示，加拿大接下来将重点关注菲律宾、泰国、梅 ercosur 和沙特阿拉伯，以及印度。</p>
<p>“通常，加拿大政府每年签署一项贸易协议，” 西杜在迪拜接受采访时表示。“我们希望确保尽快完成这些协议。”</p>

<p>加拿大总理马克·卡尼正在通过加强与中国的关系和签署较小的贸易协议，追求新的全球贸易秩序，旨在减少加拿大对美国经济的依赖。卡尼与中国达成的最新贸易协议标志着一个重要的转变，他希望在未来十年内将非美国出口翻倍。然而，专家警告不要与中国进行快速整合，以免引发潜在的经济不稳定。卡尼的政府还专注于与其他国家的贸易协议，包括印度、厄瓜多尔和印度尼西亚，以多样化加拿大的贸易伙伴关系</p>

<p>Carney signs trade deal with China, diverging from US policy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡尼与中国签署贸易协议，背离美国政策</p>
</div><p>Trade experts say China trade critical to double non-US exports</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贸易专家表示，中国贸易对双倍非美国出口至关重要</p>
</div><p>Experts warn of risks in rapid integration with China</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家警告与中国快速融合的风险</p>
</div><p>By Promit Mukherjee, Andrew Mills and Federico Maccioni</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：普罗米特·穆克吉，安德鲁·米尔斯，费德里科·马乔尼</p>
</div><p>OTTAWA/DOHA/DUBAI, Jan 20 (Reuters) -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>渥太华/多哈/迪拜，1 月 20 日（路透社）-</p>
</div><p>Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to foster a new global trading order by working more closely with China and inking smaller trade deals, but faces constraints from Canada’s still overwhelming economic dependency on the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大总理马克·卡尼试图通过与中国更紧密合作并签署较小的贸易协议来促进新的全球贸易秩序，但面临着加拿大仍然对美国经济依赖的巨大限制。</p>
</div><p>Last week, Carney took his trade diversification push further than his allies in Europe by signing a deal with China, and aims to project Canada as a potential leader in a new global trading order after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs upended long-standing relationships.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，卡尼在与中国签署协议时，推动了比他在欧洲的盟友更进一步的贸易多元化，旨在将加拿大塑造成在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税颠覆长期关系后，新的全球贸易秩序中的潜在领导者。</p>
</div><p>Forging new alliances and trading partnerships has taken on new urgency for countries like Canada as Trump’s foreign policy grows more aggressive and unpredictable. Trump has intensified his push to wrest sovereignty over Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark, prompting the European Union to weigh hitting back with its own measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着特朗普的外交政策变得更加激进和不可预测，像加拿大这样的国家迫切需要建立新的联盟和贸易伙伴关系。特朗普加大了对从北约成员国丹麦手中夺取格林兰主权的推动，促使欧盟考虑采取反制措施。</p>
</div><p>Carney, the former head of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, won an election last year promising to create new economic alliances to help Canada survive Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex Canada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡尼，前英格兰银行和加拿大银行行长，去年在选举中承诺建立新的经济联盟，以帮助加拿大应对特朗普的关税和对加拿大的吞并威胁。</p>
</div><p>Before arriving at an annual gathering of the global elite in Davos on Monday, he circled the world and visited countries previously overlooked by Canada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周一抵达达沃斯全球精英年会之前，他环游世界，访问了之前被加拿大忽视的国家。</p>
</div><p>“A number of the multilateral relationships, institutions, rules-based systems, are being eroded by various decisions of various countries, the United States included,” Carney said in Doha on Sunday, where he pledged more cooperation on defense and security and said progress had been made on an investment promotion agreement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“许多多边关系、机构、基于规则的系统，正因各国的各种决定而受到侵蚀，包括美国，” 卡尼在周日的多哈表示，他承诺在国防和安全方面加强合作，并表示在投资促进协议方面取得了进展。</p>
</div><p>“Where there is progress, and where Canada and like-minded countries are looking to make progress, is through plurilateral deals,” Carney said, advocating for agreements between a smaller number of countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在有进展的地方，加拿大和志同道合的国家希望取得进展的地方，是通过多边协议，” 卡尼说，倡导在较少国家之间达成协议。</p>
</div><p>Carney said Canada was already advocating to be a bridge between the European Union and Pacific Rim nations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡尼表示，加拿大已经在倡导成为欧盟与太平洋沿岸国家之间的桥梁。</p>
</div><p>“In this moment of volatility, Canada will step up and lead. We will make sure that we are bringing countries to the table who will assist in this role,” Foreign Minister Anita Anand told Reuters in an interview in Doha.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在这个动荡的时刻，加拿大将挺身而出并领导。我们将确保将愿意协助这一角色的国家带到谈判桌上，” 外交部长阿尼塔·阿南德在多哈接受路透社采访时表示。</p>
</div><h3>U.S. TRADE DEPENDENCY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美国贸易依赖性</h3>
</div><p>The European Union is also intensifying its trade diversification efforts - signing a deal with South American trade bloc Mercosur after 25 years of talks, concluding a deal with Indonesia in September and updating agreements with Mexico. The EU has resumed trade agreement negotiations with Malaysia, the Philippines, the United Arab Emirates and India.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟也在加大贸易多元化的努力 - 在经过 25 年的谈判后与南美贸易集团梅 ercosur 签署协议，9 月与印度尼西亚达成协议，并更新与墨西哥的协议。欧盟已恢复与马来西亚、菲律宾、阿联酋和印度的贸易协议谈判。</p>
</div><p>But while the EU relies on the U.S. for just over 20% of goods exports, Canada still sends close to 70% of its exports south of the border.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管欧盟对美国的商品出口依赖仅略超过 20%，加拿大仍将近 70% 的出口送往南方。</p>
</div><p>For Canada to reduce merchandise exports to the U.S. by 10%, it would have to double its exports to China, Germany, France, Mexico, Italy and India or find similar countries of that size, said Prince Owusu, senior economist with Export Development Canada.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了将对美国的商品出口减少 10%，加拿大必须将对中国、德国、法国、墨西哥、意大利和印度的出口翻倍，或者找到类似规模的国家，出口发展加拿大的高级经济学家普林斯·欧乌苏表示。</p>
</div><p>Carney has pledged to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Trade experts and economists say to achieve this, Canada has to heavily rely on China, currently its No. 2 trade partner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡尼承诺在未来十年内将加拿大的非美国出口翻倍。贸易专家和经济学家表示，要实现这一目标，加拿大必须在很大程度上依赖中国，当前是其第二大贸易伙伴。</p>
</div><p>“We have to be very cautious… Moving too quickly and integrating too quickly with China also creates some issues around long-term stability for the economy,” said William Pellerin, partner and co-head for international trade at law firm McMillan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们必须非常谨慎……与中国的快速融合也会带来一些长期经济稳定性的问题，” 法律事务所 McMillan 的国际贸易合伙人兼联合负责人威廉·佩勒林表示。</p>
</div><p>Chinese manufacturers have the ability to flood the Canadian market overnight in just about every category of goods, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，中国制造商有能力在几乎所有商品类别中迅速涌入加拿大市场。</p>
</div><p>China’s shipments to the U.S. fell last year but rose sharply to the rest of the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国对美国的出口去年下降，但对世界其他地区的出口大幅上升。</p>
</div><p>Canada’s share of exports to the U.S. fell to their lowest ever level outside the COVID-19 pandemic years in October, according to official data. But the U.S. still accounted for 67.3% of all exports. While the government hopes to sell more oil to Asia, 90% of Canadian crude goes to the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据官方数据，加拿大对美国的出口份额在 10 月份降至 COVID-19 疫情年份之外的最低水平。但美国仍占所有出口的 67.3%。尽管政府希望向亚洲出售更多石油，但 90% 的加拿大原油仍然流向美国。</p>
</div><p>Economists say the U.S. share of Canadian exports is unlikely to decline much more anytime soon, with many companies awaiting the outcome of negotiations over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家表示，加拿大对美国的出口份额在短期内不太可能进一步下降，许多公司在等待今年关于美墨加贸易协议谈判的结果。</p>
</div><h3>PURSUING MULTIPLE TRADE DEALS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>追求多项贸易协议</h3>
</div><p>Carney last week became the first Canadian prime minister to visit Qatar and the first to visit China since 2017.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，卡尼成为首位访问卡塔尔的加拿大总理，也是自 2017 年以来首位访问中国的总理。</p>
</div><p>In Beijing, Carney said China had become a more predictable partner than the U.S. He is expected to visit India soon, after the two countries restored diplomatic ties and agreed to restart trade talks that had stalled under his predecessor Justin Trudeau.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在北京，卡尼表示，中国已成为比美国更可预测的合作伙伴。他预计将很快访问印度，此前两国恢复了外交关系，并同意重启在其前任贾斯廷·特鲁多领导下停滞的贸易谈判。</p>
</div><p>Canada has also wrapped up trade deals with Ecuador and Indonesia and signed investment agreements with the United Arab Emirates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大还与厄瓜多尔和印度尼西亚达成了贸易协议，并与阿联酋签署了投资协议。</p>
</div><p>Carney’s Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said Canada will next focus on the Philippines, Thailand, Mercosur and Saudi Arabia, as well as India.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡尼的贸易部长马宁德·西杜表示，加拿大接下来将重点关注菲律宾、泰国、梅 ercosur 和沙特阿拉伯，以及印度。</p>
</div><p>“Normally, the government of Canada signs one trade agreement a year,” Sidhu said in an interview in Dubai. “We want to make sure we get those done as soon as possible.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通常，加拿大政府每年签署一项贸易协议，” 西杜在迪拜接受采访时表示。“我们希望确保尽快完成这些协议。”</p>
</div>

ANALYSIS-Canada's Carney aims to lead new global trading order less reliant on US

- 加拿大总理马尔克·卡尼与中国签署贸易协议，推动全球贸易新秩序。  
- 专家认为，加拿大需依赖中国以增加非美国出口，但警告迅速整合可能造成风险。  
- 加拿大的美国出口占比仍接近 70%，减轻依赖面临挑战。

分析——加拿大的卡尼计划领导新的全球贸易秩序，以减少对美国的依赖