<p>支持美元贬值论的一个论点是货币供应增长失控。例如，我们看到一篇帖子声称 “美国货币创造的速度令人震惊。” 具体来说，他表示货币供应在 2025 年增加了 1.65 万亿美元。像他这样以绝对美元金额引用货币供应是毫无意义的。要正确评估货币供应的增长，应该将货币供应的变化率与经济增长率（GDP）进行比较。如下所示，M2 同比增长了 4.27%。名义 GDP 增长了 5.71%。换句话说，货币供应的增长速度低于经济增长。此外，尽管最近经济增长有所回升，货币供应的增长仍略低于疫情前的平均水平。</p>
<p>如果货币的增长与经济的生产能力相一致，它有助于通过将货币供应与生产和需求的商品和服务数量对齐来维持价格稳定。当货币增长速度超过实际产出时，就会发生通货膨胀。相反，当货币供应的增长速度低于 GDP 时，流动性短缺可能会限制增长并增加通货紧缩的风险。简单来说，将货币供应的增长与经济增长对齐有助于支持价格稳定、高效的资本配置和可持续的长期扩张。如果说有什么的话，货币增长速度低于经济增长应该引起通缩的警示，而不是 “令人震惊” 的担忧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今日关注</strong></h3>
<p><strong>财报</strong></p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png"/></p>
<p><strong>经济</strong></p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>市场交易更新</strong></h3>
<p>随着标准普尔 500 指数在 <strong><em>周五收于 6940 点</em></strong>，技术条件显示市场处于受控但整合状态，关键里程碑即将到来。该指数维持了去年底至今年初建立的上升趋势，表明持续的看涨动能，因为更高的高点和更高的低点保持不变。此趋势得到了标准普尔 500 指数最近成功测试 20 日移动平均线的支持，广度指标如上涨股票和整体市场参与度超越了仅仅是大型科技股的范围。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png"/></p>
<p>本周的价格走势显示，标准普尔 500 指数在接近历史最高水平时徘徊，同时在心理上重要的 <strong>7000 点</strong> 下方的狭窄区间内整合，这一水平作为即时阻力。技术性卖出和财报前的期权市场动态可能只是对潜在失望风险的预先布局。然而，如果财报好于预期，这可能会导致相当爆炸性的上涨，如果上升楔形模式以看涨方式解决。日线图上的短期动量指标显示中性到略微看涨的条件，趋势放缓但没有逆转。市场当前的结构显示出在强劲上涨后的典型整合行为，通常在广泛的广度保持支持时，预示着继续而非突然逆转。</p>
<p>在下行方面，该指数仍受到交易者和投资者应监测的关键水平的支持。这些包括之前的突破区和 50 日移动平均线，后者在最近的回调中作为动态支撑底线。果断跌破这些支撑可能会发出短期趋势信心丧失的信号，尽管周末的风险事件，如地缘政治发展或政策新闻，仍可能在马丁·路德·金纪念日假期后影响价格走势。</p>
<p>从波动性角度来看，美国股票波动性指标仍然处于低位，尽管波动性略有上升。随着财报季和宏观经济数据发布，我们可能会看到波动性进一步上升，这些数据通常被视为方向性突破的催化剂。</p>
<p>总之，标准普尔 500 指数的技术特征仍然是建设性的，但在阻力附近保持区间。支撑水平目前保持稳定，趋势指标在关键突破水平上仍然看涨。下一次方向性移动可能取决于市场能否突破 7000 点以上的阻力，或测试定义当前趋势结构的更深支撑水平。</p>
<p><strong>关键技术水平 – 标准普尔 500 指数 (SPX)</strong></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>水平</strong></th>
<th><strong>角色</strong></th>
<th><strong>评论</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>7100</td>
<td>下一个阻力</td>
<td>7000 突破以上的下一个上行延伸</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7000</td>
<td>立即阻力</td>
<td>接近历史最高点的心理障碍</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6940</td>
<td>周五收盘水平</td>
<td>当前交易支点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6909</td>
<td>短期支撑</td>
<td>20 日移动平均线</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6829</td>
<td>次级支撑</td>
<td>50 日移动平均线</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6742</td>
<td>更深支撑</td>
<td>100 日移动平均线</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3><strong>未来一周</strong></h3>
<p>假期缩短的一周的亮点将是周四的 PCE 价格数据。考虑到 BLS 最近的积极通胀数据，投资者将寻求在 PCE 中确认。请记住，美联储最重视的是 PCE 价格，而不是 CPI。核心 PCE 的共识预期为月增 0.4%，年增 2.9%。这将表明通胀略高于 CPI。</p>
<p>本周美联储将进入媒体禁言期，接近下周的 FOMC 会议。正如我们在下面分享的，这次会议降息的概率仅为 5%。</p>
<p>本周财报公告的节奏将加快。</p>
<ul>
<li>周二：Netflix、MMM 和联合航空</li>
<li>周三：强生、查尔斯·施瓦布、金德摩根</li>
<li>周四：Visa、宝洁、雅培、英特尔和西南航空</li>
<li>周五：NextEra、斯伦贝谢</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>人工智能生产力、就业和基本收入</strong></h3>
<p>预计人工智能生产力的提升将极大地改变美国经济。企业正在利用人工智能的生产力提升来自动化重复性任务，研究和编码功能已经得以实施。显而易见的问题是，当机器执行曾由人类完成的功能时，人类应该如何获得收入？这种人工智能生产力的提升在各个行业都是可衡量的，因为供应链运作更加高效，数据分析加速，客户服务利用自动化代理来简化任务。制造业，曾被视为经济的稳定部门，正越来越多地使用机器人来降低劳动力成本。专业服务行业也在医疗、法律和其他服务经济领域逐渐取代工人，以提高每位工人的产出（即：利润）。</p>
<p>这并不是新鲜事。自传真机和电话应答设备发明以来，这一趋势一直在加速。使用人工智能生产力提升技术的迹象越来越明显。但正如所示，企业转向关注工人生产力的转变仍在继续。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png"/></p>
<p>最近的企业声明证实了这一转变。在 2025 年的一场金融会议上，摩根大通报告称，人工智能的采用使某些操作的生产力提升从 3% 翻倍至 6%，一些岗位的效率提升达到了 40% 至 50%。其他银行表示，人工智能使他们能够在相同的人数下完成更多的工作。</p>
<p>理论上，人工智能生产力提升的承诺令人向往。虽然企业可以用更少的投入生产更多的产品，但人类将有更多时间追求教育、休闲和与家人共度时光，从而提高整体健康和幸福感。再一次，这只是理论，今天评论的主题。</p>
<p>阅读更多…</p>
<h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>市场保持看涨，轮动持续</p>
<p>人工智能生产力、就业与基本收入</p>
<p>疲软的日元、日本央行与套利交易</p>

全美价值股指数 ETF - Vanguard

全美成长股指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

美国大盘成长股 ETF - Charles Schwab

<p>这篇文章讨论了关于货币供应快速增长的误解，强调应将其与 GDP 增长进行评估。文章指出，M2 货币供应增长了 4.27%，而名义 GDP 增长了 5.71%，这表明货币供应的增长并不令人担忧，反而低于疫情前的平均水平。标普 500 指数处于整固状态，关键阻力位在 7000 点，支撑位保持稳定。即将发布的个人消费支出（PCE）价格数据备受关注，随着本周盈利公告的增加，市场将重点关注通胀趋势</p>

<p>Supporting the dollar-debasement narrative is the claim that money supply growth is out of control. For instance, we saw a post claiming “US money creation is happening at an alarming pace.” Specifically, he says the money supply increased by $1.65 trillion in 2025. Quoting the money supply, as he does, in absolute dollar terms is meaningless. To properly gauge money supply growth, one should compare the rate of change in the money supply compared to the economy’s growth rate (GDP). As shown below, M2 grew by 4.27% year over year. Nominal GDP grew by 5.71%. In other words, the money supply grew more slowly than the economy. Furthermore, money supply growth is slightly below the pre-pandemic average, despite a recent uptick in economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支持美元贬值论的一个论点是货币供应增长失控。例如，我们看到一篇帖子声称 “美国货币创造的速度令人震惊。” 具体来说，他表示货币供应在 2025 年增加了 1.65 万亿美元。像他这样以绝对美元金额引用货币供应是毫无意义的。要正确评估货币供应的增长，应该将货币供应的变化率与经济增长率（GDP）进行比较。如下所示，M2 同比增长了 4.27%。名义 GDP 增长了 5.71%。换句话说，货币供应的增长速度低于经济增长。此外，尽管最近经济增长有所回升，货币供应的增长仍略低于疫情前的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>If money grows in line with the economy’s productive capacity, it helps maintain price stability by aligning the money supply with the quantity of goods and services produced and demanded. When money grows faster than real output, inflation occurs. Conversely, when the money supply grows more slowly than GDP, liquidity shortages can constrain growth and increase the risk of deflation. Simply put, aligning money supply growth with economic growth supports stable prices, efficient capital allocation, and sustainable long-term expansion. If anything, the fact that money is not growing as fast as the economy should raise disinflationary flags, not “alarming” concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果货币的增长与经济的生产能力相一致，它有助于通过将货币供应与生产和需求的商品和服务数量对齐来维持价格稳定。当货币增长速度超过实际产出时，就会发生通货膨胀。相反，当货币供应的增长速度低于 GDP 时，流动性短缺可能会限制增长并增加通货紧缩的风险。简单来说，将货币供应的增长与经济增长对齐有助于支持价格稳定、高效的资本配置和可持续的长期扩张。如果说有什么的话，货币增长速度低于经济增长应该引起通缩的警示，而不是 “令人震惊” 的担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>What To Watch Today</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日关注</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Earnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>财报</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Economy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>经济</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Trading Update</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>市场交易更新</strong></h3>
</div><p>With the S&amp;P 500 closing at <strong><em>6940 on Friday</em></strong>, the technical conditions reveal a market in a controlled but consolidative state as key milestones approach. The index maintained its uptrend established late last year and into early January, signaling continued bullish momentum as higher highs and higher lows remain intact. This trend is supported by the S&amp;P 500’s recent successful test of the 20-day moving average, with breadth indicators such as advancing stocks and total market participation expanding beyond just mega-cap technology names.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着标准普尔 500 指数在 <strong><em>周五收于 6940 点</em></strong>，技术条件显示市场处于受控但整合状态，关键里程碑即将到来。该指数维持了去年底至今年初建立的上升趋势，表明持续的看涨动能，因为更高的高点和更高的低点保持不变。此趋势得到了标准普尔 500 指数最近成功测试 20 日移动平均线的支持，广度指标如上涨股票和整体市场参与度超越了仅仅是大型科技股的范围。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png"/></p>
<p>Price action through the week saw the S&amp;P 500 navigate around near‑record levels while consolidating within a tight range just below the psychologically significant <strong>7000 level</strong>, which acts as immediate resistance. Both the technical selling and options market dynamics ahead of earnings could just be prepositioning against potential disappointment risk. However, if earnings are better than feared, this could lead to a rather explosive move higher if the rising wedge pattern resolves bullishly. Short‑term momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest neutral to slightly bullish conditions, with the trend slowing but without reversing. The market’s current structure shows typical consolidation behavior after a strong advance, often preceding a continuation rather than an abrupt reversal when broader breadth remains supportive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周的价格走势显示，标准普尔 500 指数在接近历史最高水平时徘徊，同时在心理上重要的 <strong>7000 点</strong> 下方的狭窄区间内整合，这一水平作为即时阻力。技术性卖出和财报前的期权市场动态可能只是对潜在失望风险的预先布局。然而，如果财报好于预期，这可能会导致相当爆炸性的上涨，如果上升楔形模式以看涨方式解决。日线图上的短期动量指标显示中性到略微看涨的条件，趋势放缓但没有逆转。市场当前的结构显示出在强劲上涨后的典型整合行为，通常在广泛的广度保持支持时，预示着继续而非突然逆转。</p>
</div><p>On the downside, the index remains supported by key levels that traders and investors should monitor. These include the prior breakout zones and the 50‑day moving average, which has acted as a dynamic support floor through recent pullbacks. A decisive break below these supports could signal a loss of short‑term trend conviction, though weekend risk events, such as geopolitical developments or policy news, could still influence price action once markets reopen after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下行方面，该指数仍受到交易者和投资者应监测的关键水平的支持。这些包括之前的突破区和 50 日移动平均线，后者在最近的回调中作为动态支撑底线。果断跌破这些支撑可能会发出短期趋势信心丧失的信号，尽管周末的风险事件，如地缘政治发展或政策新闻，仍可能在马丁·路德·金纪念日假期后影响价格走势。</p>
</div><p>From a volatility perspective, U.S. equity volatility metrics remain subdued, although volatility has risen mildly. We could see a further pickup in volatility with earnings season and macroeconomic data releases, which are known to act as catalysts for directional breaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从波动性角度来看，美国股票波动性指标仍然处于低位，尽管波动性略有上升。随着财报季和宏观经济数据发布，我们可能会看到波动性进一步上升，这些数据通常被视为方向性突破的催化剂。</p>
</div><p>In sum, the S&amp;P 500’s technical profile remains constructive but range‑bound near resistance. Support levels are holding for now, and trend measures remain bullish above the key breakout levels. The next directional move will likely hinge on the market’s ability to clear resistance above 7000 or to test deeper support levels that define the current trend structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，标准普尔 500 指数的技术特征仍然是建设性的，但在阻力附近保持区间。支撑水平目前保持稳定，趋势指标在关键突破水平上仍然看涨。下一次方向性移动可能取决于市场能否突破 7000 点以上的阻力，或测试定义当前趋势结构的更深支撑水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS – S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键技术水平 – 标准普尔 500 指数 (SPX)</strong></p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>Level</strong></th>
<th><strong>Role</strong></th>
<th><strong>Comment</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>7100</td>
<td>Next resistance</td>
<td>Next upside extension above a 7000 breakout</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7000</td>
<td>Immediate resistance</td>
<td>Psychological barrier near all‑time high</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6940</td>
<td>Friday close level</td>
<td>Current trading pivot</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6909</td>
<td>Near‑term support</td>
<td>20-day moving average</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6829</td>
<td>Secondary support</td>
<td>50-day moving average</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6742</td>
<td>Deeper support</td>
<td>100-day moving average</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>水平</strong></th>
<th><strong>角色</strong></th>
<th><strong>评论</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>7100</td>
<td>下一个阻力</td>
<td>7000 突破以上的下一个上行延伸</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7000</td>
<td>立即阻力</td>
<td>接近历史最高点的心理障碍</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6940</td>
<td>周五收盘水平</td>
<td>当前交易支点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6909</td>
<td>短期支撑</td>
<td>20 日移动平均线</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6829</td>
<td>次级支撑</td>
<td>50 日移动平均线</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6742</td>
<td>更深支撑</td>
<td>100 日移动平均线</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h3><strong>The Week Ahead</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>未来一周</strong></h3>
</div><p>The highlight of the holiday-shortened week will be Thursday’s PCE prices data. Given the recent positive inflation data from the BLS, investors will look for confirmation in PCE. Bear in mind that the Fed relies most heavily on PCE prices, not CPI. The consensus estimate has Core PCE at +0.4% monthly and 2.9% annually. This would indicate slightly higher inflation than the CPI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假期缩短的一周的亮点将是周四的 PCE 价格数据。考虑到 BLS 最近的积极通胀数据，投资者将寻求在 PCE 中确认。请记住，美联储最重视的是 PCE 价格，而不是 CPI。核心 PCE 的共识预期为月增 0.4%，年增 2.9%。这将表明通胀略高于 CPI。</p>
</div><p>The Fed will be in its media blackout period this week as they approach next week’s FOMC meeting. As we share below, the odds of a rate cut at this meeting are a mere 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周美联储将进入媒体禁言期，接近下周的 FOMC 会议。正如我们在下面分享的，这次会议降息的概率仅为 5%。</p>
</div><p>The pace of earnings announcements will increase this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周财报公告的节奏将加快。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Tuesday: Netflix, MMM, and United Airlines</li>
<li>Wednesday: J&amp;J, Charles Schwab, Kinder Morgan</li>
<li>Thursday: Visa, P&amp;G, Abbott, Intel, and Southwest Air</li>
<li>Friday: NextEra, Schlumberger</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>周二：Netflix、MMM 和联合航空</li>
<li>周三：强生、查尔斯·施瓦布、金德摩根</li>
<li>周四：Visa、宝洁、雅培、英特尔和西南航空</li>
<li>周五：NextEra、斯伦贝谢</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>AI Productivity, Employment, and UBI</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>人工智能生产力、就业和基本收入</strong></h3>
</div><p>It is expected that AI productivity increases will vastly transform the U.S. economy. Firms are utilizing AI productivity enhancements to automate repetitive tasks, and research and coding functions have already been implemented. The obvious problem is that when machines perform functions once done by humans, what are the humans supposed to do for income? This increase in AI productivity is measurable across various sectors, as supply chains operate more efficiently, data analysis accelerates, and customer service utilizes automated agents to streamline tasks. Manufacturing, once considered a stable sector of the economy, is increasingly using robotics to reduce labor costs. Professional services are also increasingly displacing workers in medical, legal, and other areas of the service economy to improve output (read: profits) per worker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计人工智能生产力的提升将极大地改变美国经济。企业正在利用人工智能的生产力提升来自动化重复性任务，研究和编码功能已经得以实施。显而易见的问题是，当机器执行曾由人类完成的功能时，人类应该如何获得收入？这种人工智能生产力的提升在各个行业都是可衡量的，因为供应链运作更加高效，数据分析加速，客户服务利用自动化代理来简化任务。制造业，曾被视为经济的稳定部门，正越来越多地使用机器人来降低劳动力成本。专业服务行业也在医疗、法律和其他服务经济领域逐渐取代工人，以提高每位工人的产出（即：利润）。</p>
</div><p>This is not a new thing. It has been accelerating since the invention of the fax machine and phone answering devices. The use of AI productivity-enhancing technology is becoming increasingly apparent. But as shown, the shift by corporations to focus on worker productivity is ongoing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是新鲜事。自传真机和电话应答设备发明以来，这一趋势一直在加速。使用人工智能生产力提升技术的迹象越来越明显。但正如所示，企业转向关注工人生产力的转变仍在继续。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png"/></p>
<p>Recent corporate statements confirm this shift. At a 2025 financial conference, JPMorgan Chase reported that AI adoption doubled productivity gains in certain operations from 3% to 6%, with some roles seeing efficiency increases of 40% to 50%. Other banks said AI allows them to accomplish more work with the same headcount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的企业声明证实了这一转变。在 2025 年的一场金融会议上，摩根大通报告称，人工智能的采用使某些操作的生产力提升从 3% 翻倍至 6%，一些岗位的效率提升达到了 40% 至 50%。其他银行表示，人工智能使他们能够在相同的人数下完成更多的工作。</p>
</div><p>In theory, the promise of AI productivity increases is alluring. While firms can produce more with fewer inputs, humans will have more time to pursue education, leisure, and spend time with their families, increasing overall health and happiness. Again, that is theory, and the subject of today’s commentary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理论上，人工智能生产力提升的承诺令人向往。虽然企业可以用更少的投入生产更多的产品，但人类将有更多时间追求教育、休闲和与家人共度时光，从而提高整体健康和幸福感。再一次，这只是理论，今天评论的主题。</p>
</div><p>READ MORE…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读更多…</p>
</div><h3><strong>Tweet of the Day</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Rotation Continues As Markets Remain Bullish</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场保持看涨，轮动持续</p>
</div><p>AI Productivity, Employment And UBI</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能生产力、就业与基本收入</p>
</div><p>A Weak Yen, The BoJ, And The Carry Trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲软的日元、日本央行与套利交易</p>
</div>

The Money Supply Myth: Context Matters

- 文章指出美元贬值论的支持来自资金供应增长失控的说法。  
- 2025 年，美国货币供应增长 1.65 万亿美元，年比增长 4.27%，低于 GDP 的 5.71%。  
- 当前市场在关键阻力位 7000 附近整理，后续走势可能受财报影响。

货币供应的迷思：背景因素至关重要