<p>大型机构继续从流动市场中移除以太坊 [ETH]，而且这一趋势没有减缓的迹象。</p>
<p>Bitmine 最近质押了 86,848 ETH，价值 2.775 亿美元，使其总质押持有量达到 177 万 ETH，价值约 56.6 亿美元。</p>
<p>与此同时，ETF 累计了 158,545 ETH，自去年底以来吸收了大约 5.2 亿美元。这种稳定的吸收每天都在减少可用市场供应。</p>
<p>然而，价格并没有立即反应。长期参与者显然更重视收益和保管，而不是短期波动。与此同时，投机交易者则显得犹豫不决。</p>
<p>因此，结构性积累与可见价格反应之间形成了越来越大的差距。最终，供应紧缩应该会产生影响。目前，耐心占据主导。</p>
<h2><strong>为什么 $3,390 限制了每次上涨尝试</strong></h2>
<p>以太坊仍然被锁定在一个明确的区间内，卖方继续在 $3,390 附近施加控制。每次反弹进入这个区域都会吸引新的卖压。</p>
<p>买方设法捍卫接近 $3,000 的下方区域，但在此点之上却难以建立动能。因此，价格波动而不是趋势。这种反复的拒绝信号表明谨慎而非疲软。</p>
<p>卖方捍卫关键水平，但避免激进的跟进。同时，买方选择性介入，而不是追逐强势。因此，价格进一步压缩。整合主导了日常结构。</p>
<p>要改变市场情绪，必须在阻力位上有一个决定性的突破。在此之前，区间决定了行为。</p>
<p>动量指标强化了整合的叙述。在撰写时，RSI 从低 50 区间回落，漂移向中 40 区间。这一变化反映出每次反弹后买方力量的减弱。</p>
<p>重要的是，RSI 并没有显示出看涨的背离。因此，动量并未为上涨突破提供确认。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSD_2026-01-20_10-04-55.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSD_2026-01-20_10-04-55.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<h2><strong>ETH 持续离开交易所</strong></h2>
<p>现货流动分析继续在表面下发出积极信号。以太坊记录了持续的交易所流出，截止撰写时，最新的日净流出接近 -7260 万美元。</p>
<p>交易者和长期持有者仍然更倾向于将 ETH 转移到自我保管中。这种行为稳步减少了可用供应。</p>
<p>然而，价格并没有立即反应。这种脱节让短期参与者感到沮丧。</p>
<p>尽管如此，持续的流出往往会在供应驱动的走势之前出现。与此同时，卖方未能强迫持续的下跌。</p>
<p>因此，尽管动量疲弱，价格仍然稳定。交易所的行为反映了持有者的信心，而非恐惧。随着时间的推移，这一趋势应该会进一步收紧市场条件。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-100822.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-100822.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<h2><strong>资金保持积极但…</strong></h2>
<p>衍生品市场继续发出犹豫而非信心的信号。资金利率在撰写时保持在 0.0042 附近，较之前被压制的水平上涨了大约 +1,900.87%。</p>
<p>这一反弹表明相对杠杆已经回归。然而，绝对资金水平仍然适中。多头仍在支付空头，但并不急于追逐。</p>
<p>因此，杠杆参与保持受限。交易者似乎不愿意积极追逐上涨。</p>
<p>与此同时，资金利率拒绝转为负值，这也表明空头缺乏信心。</p>
<p>因此，杠杆未能放大价格行动。在没有持续扩张的资金情况下，以太坊难以产生持久的突破，仍然被困在整合中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Funding-Rates-All-Exchanges-4-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Funding-Rates-All-Exchanges-4-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>以太坊仍然夹在强大的结构性积累与疲弱的短期信心之间。</p>
<p>机构继续锁定供应，但动量和杠杆尚未确认上涨走势。随着资金平稳和 RSI 低迷，价格可能会整合。</p>
<p>在 $3,390 阻力位上方的决定性突破，伴随更强的动量，将表明紧缩的供应终于推动价格上涨。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>结构性积累倾向于耐心，但价格需要信心才能回报长期持有者。</em></li>
<li><em>以太坊的下一步取决于参与的回归，而不仅仅是供应的收紧。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>以太坊的供应量正在减少，因为大型机构继续从流通中移除 ETH，同时进行大量质押和 ETF 积累。然而，由于卖压和谨慎的买入，价格仍然停滞在$3,390 以下。尽管持续的交易所流出表明持有者信心强烈，但动量指标显示买方力量正在减弱。资金费率为正，但缺乏紧迫感，导致杠杆参与受到限制。需要在$3,390 以上有一个决定性的突破才能推动价格上涨，但目前，以太坊正在整合，结构性积累仍在继续，短期内缺乏信心</p>

<p>Large institutions continue removing Ethereum [ETH] from liquid circulation, and the pace shows no sign of slowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型机构继续从流动市场中移除以太坊 [ETH]，而且这一趋势没有减缓的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Bitmine recently staked 86,848 ETH worth $277.5 million, pushing its total staked holdings to 1.77 million ETH valued at around $5.66 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bitmine 最近质押了 86,848 ETH，价值 2.775 亿美元，使其总质押持有量达到 177 万 ETH，价值约 56.6 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, ETFs accumulated 158,545 ETH, absorbing roughly $520 million since late December. This steady absorption reduces available market supply day after day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，ETF 累计了 158,545 ETH，自去年底以来吸收了大约 5.2 亿美元。这种稳定的吸收每天都在减少可用市场供应。</p>
</div><p>However, the price refuses to react immediately. Long-term participants clearly prioritize yield and custody over short-term volatility. At the same time, speculative traders hesitate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，价格并没有立即反应。长期参与者显然更重视收益和保管，而不是短期波动。与此同时，投机交易者则显得犹豫不决。</p>
</div><p>As a result, a widening gap forms between structural accumulation and visible price response. Eventually, tightening supply should matter. For now, patience dominates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，结构性积累与可见价格反应之间形成了越来越大的差距。最终，供应紧缩应该会产生影响。目前，耐心占据主导。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Why $3,390 caps every upside attempt</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>为什么 $3,390 限制了每次上涨尝试</strong></h2>
</div><p>Ethereum remains locked inside a clearly defined range, and sellers continue asserting control near $3,390. Each rally into this zone attracts fresh selling pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊仍然被锁定在一个明确的区间内，卖方继续在 $3,390 附近施加控制。每次反弹进入这个区域都会吸引新的卖压。</p>
</div><p>Buyers manage to defend the lower region near $3,000, yet they struggle to build momentum beyond that point. Consequently, price oscillates rather than trends. This repeated rejection signals caution rather than weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>买方设法捍卫接近 $3,000 的下方区域，但在此点之上却难以建立动能。因此，价格波动而不是趋势。这种反复的拒绝信号表明谨慎而非疲软。</p>
</div><p>Sellers defend key levels but avoid aggressive follow-through. Meanwhile, buyers step in selectively instead of chasing strength. Therefore, price compresses further. Consolidation dominates daily structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卖方捍卫关键水平，但避免激进的跟进。同时，买方选择性介入，而不是追逐强势。因此，价格进一步压缩。整合主导了日常结构。</p>
</div><p>A decisive break above resistance remains necessary to change sentiment. Until then, the range dictates behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要改变市场情绪，必须在阻力位上有一个决定性的突破。在此之前，区间决定了行为。</p>
</div><p>Momentum indicators reinforce the consolidation narrative. At the time of writing, the RSI rolled over from the low-50s and drifted toward the mid-40s. This shift reflects fading buyer strength after each rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>动量指标强化了整合的叙述。在撰写时，RSI 从低 50 区间回落，漂移向中 40 区间。这一变化反映出每次反弹后买方力量的减弱。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, RSI does not show bullish divergence. Therefore, momentum offers no confirmation for an upside breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，RSI 并没有显示出看涨的背离。因此，动量并未为上涨突破提供确认。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSD_2026-01-20_10-04-55.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSD_2026-01-20_10-04-55.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><h2><strong>ETH keeps leaving exchanges</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>ETH 持续离开交易所</strong></h2>
</div><p>Spot flow analytics continues sending a constructive signal beneath the surface. Ethereum records consistent exchange outflows, with the latest daily netflow near -$72.6 million, as of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货流动分析继续在表面下发出积极信号。以太坊记录了持续的交易所流出，截止撰写时，最新的日净流出接近 -7260 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Traders and long-term holders still prefer moving ETH into self-custody. This behavior steadily reduces the readily available supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者和长期持有者仍然更倾向于将 ETH 转移到自我保管中。这种行为稳步减少了可用供应。</p>
</div><p>However, price does not respond immediately. That disconnect frustrates short-term participants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，价格并没有立即反应。这种脱节让短期参与者感到沮丧。</p>
</div><p>Still, persistent outflows often precede supply-driven moves. Meanwhile, sellers fail to force sustained breakdowns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，持续的流出往往会在供应驱动的走势之前出现。与此同时，卖方未能强迫持续的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, price stabilizes despite weak momentum. Exchange behavior reflects conviction among holders rather than fear. Over time, this trend should tighten conditions further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管动量疲弱，价格仍然稳定。交易所的行为反映了持有者的信心，而非恐惧。随着时间的推移，这一趋势应该会进一步收紧市场条件。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-100822.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-20-100822.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><h2><strong>Funding stays positive but…</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>资金保持积极但…</strong></h2>
</div><p>Derivatives markets continue signaling hesitation rather than confidence. Funding Rates remained positive near 0.0042, at press time, with the metric up roughly +1,900.87% from previously suppressed levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衍生品市场继续发出犹豫而非信心的信号。资金利率在撰写时保持在 0.0042 附近，较之前被压制的水平上涨了大约 +1,900.87%。</p>
</div><p>This rebound shows leverage has returned on a relative basis. However, the absolute funding level remains modest. Longs still pay shorts, yet they do so without urgency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反弹表明相对杠杆已经回归。然而，绝对资金水平仍然适中。多头仍在支付空头，但并不急于追逐。</p>
</div><p>As a result, leverage participation stays restrained. Traders appear unwilling to chase upside aggressively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，杠杆参与保持受限。交易者似乎不愿意积极追逐上涨。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, funding refuses to flip negative, indicating bears lack conviction as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，资金利率拒绝转为负值，这也表明空头缺乏信心。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, leverage fails to amplify price action. Without a sustained expansion in funding, Ethereum struggles to generate a durable breakout and remains trapped inside consolidation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，杠杆未能放大价格行动。在没有持续扩张的资金情况下，以太坊难以产生持久的突破，仍然被困在整合中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Funding-Rates-All-Exchanges-4-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Funding-Rates-All-Exchanges-4-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Ethereum remains caught between strong structural accumulation and weak short‑term conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊仍然夹在强大的结构性积累与疲弱的短期信心之间。</p>
</div><p>Institutions continue to lock supply, but momentum and leverage have yet to confirm an upside move. With funding muted and RSI subdued, the price is likely to consolidate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>机构继续锁定供应，但动量和杠杆尚未确认上涨走势。随着资金平稳和 RSI 低迷，价格可能会整合。</p>
</div><p>A decisive break above the $3,390 resistance, backed by stronger momentum, would indicate that tightening supply is finally pushing the price higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 $3,390 阻力位上方的决定性突破，伴随更强的动量，将表明紧缩的供应终于推动价格上涨。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Structural accumulation favors patience, but price needs conviction before rewarding long-term holders.</em></li>
<li><em>Ethereum’s next move depends on participation returning, not just supply tightening alone.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>结构性积累倾向于耐心，但价格需要信心才能回报长期持有者。</em></li>
<li><em>以太坊的下一步取决于参与的回归，而不仅仅是供应的收紧。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Ethereum supply shrinks: So why is ETH still stuck below $3,390?

- 大型机构持续从流通中移除以太坊，未见减缓迹象。  
- 机构锁定供应，但短期动能不足，价格持续整理。  
- 突破 $3,390 阻力并需强动能，以推动价格上涨。

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以太坊的供应量减少：那么为什么 ETH 仍然徘徊在$3,390 以下呢？