<p>以太坊显示出再次引领市场的迹象，类似于 2025 年第二季度的模式。</p>
<p>根据区块链分析公司 Swissblock 的说法，一个关键的市场周期指标转变为 “主导”（蓝色），这暗示着以太坊可能会迎来一场巨大的反弹。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“将创纪录的质押水平与市场领导地位的变化结合起来，表明以太坊生态系统正在积累显著的动能。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：Swissblock/X</p>
<h2>收益需求催化剂</h2>
<p>在这里，值得注意的是，质押需求（对以太坊 3% 收益的追求）已达到整体供应的创纪录 47%（7785 万 ETH）。</p>
<p>事实上，质押的进入队列已经超过了退出队列，进一步强化了对收益的强烈需求，尤其是来自机构的需求。</p>
<p></p>
<p>来源：Santiment</p>
<p>在过去几周，领先的以太坊国库公司 BitMine 已质押 170 万 ETH（55.6 亿美元），占其总 ETH 持有量的三分之一以上。</p>
<p>而美国现货以太坊 ETF 目前持有近 10% 的总供应量，已申请增加质押，这可能进一步推动需求。</p>
<p>质押热潮的结果？可供抛售的以太坊 [ETH] 越来越少。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，任何积极的宏观环境或市场特定的更新都可能引发对这款山寨币的巨大追捧，几乎没有获利回吐来阻碍其上涨。</p>
<h2>关税会破坏以太坊的布局吗？</h2>
<p>在过去一周，美国现货以太坊 ETF 也吸引了大量需求。根据 CoinShares 的数据，以太坊和瑞波币 [XRP] 上周分别以 4.96 亿美元和 6900 万美元的资金流入领先。</p>
<p>然而，针对欧盟成员国的关税升级在美国对格林兰的立场下，令市场情绪在上周五变得悲观。</p>
<p>到目前为止，本周加密市场继续逆转近期的涨幅，投资者转向风险规避模式。</p>
<p>事实上，即使是跟踪美国零售对以太坊需求的 Coinbase 溢价指数，在上周的反弹尝试后也出现了逆转。</p>
<p>除非该指数转为正值，否则以太坊的可持续复苏在短期内可能仍然难以实现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>从价格图表的角度来看，上述数据集表明，除非更广泛的市场情绪发生变化并且关税风险得到消除，否则以太坊可能会保持在趋势线以下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ETH/USDT，TradingView</p>
<p>趋势线支撑在 2025 年下半年保持了以太坊的下跌，但在 11 月底比特币失守 10 万美元心理关口时被突破。</p>
<p>现在它已成为阻力，清除这一障碍可能是再次确认以太坊多头前进道路的唯一方式。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>以太坊闪现出一个关键的 “主导” 市场周期信号，这可能暗示近期到中期的潜在反弹。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，新关税和宏观新闻风险可能会破坏这种前景，并使以太坊在一段时间内保持在 3300 美元以下。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>以太坊显示出市场领导的迹象，一个关键指标转向 “主导”，暗示潜在的反弹。创纪录的质押水平，47% 的供应量被质押，表明需求强劲，尤其是来自机构的需求。然而，重新升级的关税和风险规避情绪可能会阻碍短期复苏，使 ETH 保持在$3.3k 以下。Coinbase 溢价指数的反转增加了不确定性，因为需要更广泛的情绪变化才能实现可持续的复苏</p>

<p>Ethereum is showing signs of leading the market again, similar to the pattern seen in Q2 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊显示出再次引领市场的迹象，类似于 2025 年第二季度的模式。</p>
</div><p>According to the blockchain analytics firm Swissblock, a key market cycle indicator flipped to ‘predominance’ (blue), suggesting a potential monster rally for ETH.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据区块链分析公司 Swissblock 的说法，一个关键的市场周期指标转变为 “主导”（蓝色），这暗示着以太坊可能会迎来一场巨大的反弹。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Combining record staking levels with this change in market leadership suggests significant momentum building for the Ethereum ecosystem.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“将创纪录的质押水平与市场领导地位的变化结合起来，表明以太坊生态系统正在积累显著的动能。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Swissblock/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Swissblock/X</p>
</div><h2>The yield demand catalyst</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益需求催化剂</h2>
</div><p>Here, it is worth noting that the staking demand (hunt for ETH’s 3% yield) has reached a record 47% of the overall supply (77.85 million ETH).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里，值得注意的是，质押需求（对以太坊 3% 收益的追求）已达到整体供应的创纪录 47%（7785 万 ETH）。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the staking entry queue has outpaced the exit queue, further reinforcing the overwhelming appetite for yield, especially from institutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，质押的进入队列已经超过了退出队列，进一步强化了对收益的强烈需求，尤其是来自机构的需求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-santiment.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-santiment.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Santiment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Santiment</p>
</div><p>In the past few weeks, BitMine, the leading ETH treasury firm, has staked 1.7 million ETH ($5.56 billion), over a third of its total ETH holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几周，领先的以太坊国库公司 BitMine 已质押 170 万 ETH（55.6 亿美元），占其总 ETH 持有量的三分之一以上。</p>
</div><p>And U.S. spot ETH ETFs, which currently hold nearly 10% of the total supply, have filed to add staking, which could further fuel demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而美国现货以太坊 ETF 目前持有近 10% 的总供应量，已申请增加质押，这可能进一步推动需求。</p>
</div><p>The result of the staking craze? Less and less available Ethereum [ETH] to be dumped on short notice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>质押热潮的结果？可供抛售的以太坊 [ETH] 越来越少。</p>
</div><p>In such a scenario, any positive macro landscape or market-specific update could trigger a massive run for the altcoin, with little profit-taking to hold it back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，任何积极的宏观环境或市场特定的更新都可能引发对这款山寨币的巨大追捧，几乎没有获利回吐来阻碍其上涨。</p>
</div><h2>Will tariffs spoil ETH’s setup?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关税会破坏以太坊的布局吗？</h2>
</div><p>In the past week, the U.S. spot ETH ETFs also attracted massive demand. According to CoinShares, ETH and Ripple [XRP] led last week with $496 million and $69 million in inflows, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，美国现货以太坊 ETF 也吸引了大量需求。根据 CoinShares 的数据，以太坊和瑞波币 [XRP] 上周分别以 4.96 亿美元和 6900 万美元的资金流入领先。</p>
</div><p>However, renewed tariff escalation against European Union member countries amid the U.S. stance on Greenland soured market sentiment last Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，针对欧盟成员国的关税升级在美国对格林兰的立场下，令市场情绪在上周五变得悲观。</p>
</div><p>So far this week, the crypto market has continued to reverse its recent gains as investors turn into risk-off mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，本周加密市场继续逆转近期的涨幅，投资者转向风险规避模式。</p>
</div><p>In fact, even the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks overall U.S. retail demand for ETH, reversed after last week’s attempted recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，即使是跟踪美国零售对以太坊需求的 Coinbase 溢价指数，在上周的反弹尝试后也出现了逆转。</p>
</div><p>Unless the index flips positive, a sustainable ETH recovery may remain elusive in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非该指数转为正值，否则以太坊的可持续复苏在短期内可能仍然难以实现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>From a price chart perspective, the above data sets suggest ETH may remain below the trendline unless broader sentiment shifts and tariff risk is cleared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从价格图表的角度来看，上述数据集表明，除非更广泛的市场情绪发生变化并且关税风险得到消除，否则以太坊可能会保持在趋势线以下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ETH/USDT，TradingView</p>
</div><p>The trendline support held ETH’s decline in H2 2025 but was cracked in late November as Bitcoin lost the $100k psychological level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趋势线支撑在 2025 年下半年保持了以太坊的下跌，但在 11 月底比特币失守 10 万美元心理关口时被突破。</p>
</div><p>Now it has become a resistance, and clearing the hurdle may be the only way to confirm the path forward for ETH bulls again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在它已成为阻力，清除这一障碍可能是再次确认以太坊多头前进道路的唯一方式。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>ETH flashed a key ‘predominance’ market cycle signal that may suggest a potential rally in the near to mid-term.</em></li>
<li><em>However, new tariffs and macro headlines risk derailing such an outlook and keeping Ethereum below $3.3k for a while.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>以太坊闪现出一个关键的 “主导” 市场周期信号，这可能暗示近期到中期的潜在反弹。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，新关税和宏观新闻风险可能会破坏这种前景，并使以太坊在一段时间内保持在 3300 美元以下。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Ethereum’s key indicator shifts to ‘predominance’- Is an ETH rally incoming?

- Ethereum 显示出重新引领市场的迹象，市场周期指标转为 “主导” 状态。  
- 以太坊质押需求已达供应的 47%，机构对收益的需求强劲。  
- 然而，新的关税政策可能影响市场情绪，令以太坊短期内难以突破 3000 美元。

Amb Crypto

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Staking ETF

21Shares Ethereum ETF

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

2 倍做多加密货币行业 ETF - Direxion

IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

Bitwise Ethereum ETF

Franklin Ethereum ETF

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Covered Call ETF

Galaxy Digital

Coinbase

VanEck Ethereum ETF

以太坊的关键指标转向 “主导地位”——ETH 的上涨是否即将到来？