<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/1zDaqNjhjNd5.6zHm4ZzCA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04NTc-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5f6d8569871204b40d9a177a0d970ef8?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/1zDaqNjhjNd5.6zHm4ZzCA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04NTc-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5f6d8569871204b40d9a177a0d970ef8"/></p>
<p>台湾的芯片制造商免受美国高额关税的影响（Sam YEH）</p>
<p>去年，台湾经济因人工智能硬件和半导体的出口激增而飞速增长，但传统制造业的公司只能羡慕地看着，因为它们受到美国关税和强势本币的打击。</p>
<p>几十年来，台湾的经济增长依赖于包括机械、金属和化学品在内的各种商品的海外出口，主要是中小型制造商雇佣了数千名工人。</p>
<p>然而，在过去的 12 个月里，这些行业的公司遭受了重创，因为它们出口到美国的商品被征收了 20% 的关税，作为特朗普总统全球贸易战的一部分，威胁到人们的就业。</p>
<p>然而，半导体芯片这一领域却被豁免了——这是一个由台湾科技巨头台积电主导的关键行业。</p>
<p>这意味着，根据政府的估计，经济增长可能在去年飙升了 7.4%，这将是 15 年来的最快增速。</p>
<p>“我们并没有真正感受到这种增长，” 台湾台中市机床制造商 Litz Hitech Corp 的销售总监 Chris Wu 对法新社表示。</p>
<p>“总体数据看起来强劲，但对于传统行业，尤其是我们公司，出口已经下降——我们下降了 30%。”</p>
<p>特朗普最初宣布对台湾出口征收 32% 的关税，后来在去年四月的贸易伙伴措施中降低至 20%。</p>
<p>上周宣布的贸易协议将这一关税再次降低至 15%，与主要制造竞争对手韩国和日本保持一致。</p>
<p>虽然这对传统制造商来说是个好消息，但吴表示这并不是灵丹妙药。</p>
<p>- '悲惨' -</p>
<p>Litz Hitech 的精密工具和加工机器的海外需求尚未恢复，15% 的关税仍然是公司利润率的近三倍。</p>
<p>此外，吴表示，台币比韩元、日元和欧元更强，这意味着台湾的出口变得更加昂贵。</p>
<p>“我认为没有一家台湾机床制造商能够完全吸收（关税）——也许能吸收 2% 到 3%，但完全吸收是不可能的，” 他说。</p>
<p>“我们公司甚至无法吸收 1%。”</p>
<p>台湾的信息和通信技术（ICT）行业，包括半导体芯片，已成为该岛出口依赖型经济的最大驱动力。</p>
<p>去年的数据清楚地显示了科技行业与传统行业之间的巨大差异，ICT 出口激增，而金属、塑料和金属切削机床的出口则都在下降。</p>
<p>“去年的情况非常悲惨，” 台中市进出口商会会长 Jerry Liu 对法新社表示。</p>
<p>台湾对人工智能的依赖让一些专家担心，如果围绕该技术的兴奋泡沫破裂，经济将受到影响。</p>
<p>“这很危险，” 中央研究院经济研究所研究员兼教授陈炳龙说。</p>
<p>“但你能做什么呢？你不能强迫人们不投资于半导体。”</p>
<p>- '咬紧牙关' -</p>
<p>台湾希望其半导体行业在与华盛顿的贸易协议后继续免受特朗普关税的影响，该协议承诺台湾的芯片和科技企业在美国投资高达 5000 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，美国最高法院可能对特朗普施加关税的权力作出裁决，这可能会颠覆该协议。</p>
<p>“如果这违宪……当前的谈判结果可能需要重新进行，” 台湾经济研究院经济学家吴孟涛表示，增加了对 ICT 行业征收关税的风险。</p>
<p>台湾传统制造业的许多人，包括 Litz Hitech，已将员工置于无薪假期或减少工作时间。销售总监吴估计有数千人受到影响。</p>
<p>如果美国联邦储备委员会在 2026 年降息，中小型制造商的条件可能会变得更加严峻。</p>
<p>台币在去年高点回落后，可能会面临新的上涨压力。</p>
<p>刘表示他正在 “咬紧牙关坚持下去”——并希望政府能帮助 “稳定货币”。</p>
<p>但制造商也需要与时俱进，采用人工智能并为客户提供 “综合解决方案”，台湾机床及配件制造商协会会长 Patrick Chen 表示。</p>
<p>“单纯销售独立机器或单个设备是过去的商业模式。”</p>
<p>joy/amj/dan</p>

<p>台湾经济因人工智能硬件和半导体出口激增而实现显著增长，但传统制造商面临美国关税和强势本币的挑战。尽管信息通信技术（ICT）行业蓬勃发展，但机械和其他传统行业的公司出口出现下降，有些下降幅度达到 30%。尽管最近的贸易协议降低了关税，但许多制造商仍难以吸收成本，导致裁员和减少工作时间。专家对台湾对半导体行业的依赖表示担忧，并指出如果该行业出现问题，可能会带来经济风险</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/1zDaqNjhjNd5.6zHm4ZzCA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04NTc-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5f6d8569871204b40d9a177a0d970ef8" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/1zDaqNjhjNd5.6zHm4ZzCA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD04NTc-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/5f6d8569871204b40d9a177a0d970ef8"/></p>
<p>Taiwan's chip manufacturers have been spared hefty US tariffs (Sam YEH)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾的芯片制造商免受美国高额关税的影响（Sam YEH）</p>
</div><p>Taiwan's economy soared last year on skyrocketing exports of AI hardware and semiconductors, but companies in more traditional manufacturing sectors could only look on with envy as they were clobbered by US tariffs and a strong local currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，台湾经济因人工智能硬件和半导体的出口激增而飞速增长，但传统制造业的公司只能羡慕地看着，因为它们受到美国关税和强势本币的打击。</p>
</div><p>The island's growth has for decades been based on overseas shipments of a range of goods including machinery, metals and chemicals, mostly small and medium-sized manufacturers employing thousands of workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几十年来，台湾的经济增长依赖于包括机械、金属和化学品在内的各种商品的海外出口，主要是中小型制造商雇佣了数千名工人。</p>
</div><p>But the past 12 months saw companies in those sectors dealt a body blow as their goods sold into the United States were loaded with 20 percent levies as part of President Donald Trump's global trade war, threatening people's jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在过去的 12 个月里，这些行业的公司遭受了重创，因为它们出口到美国的商品被征收了 20% 的关税，作为特朗普总统全球贸易战的一部分，威胁到人们的就业。</p>
</div><p>One area that was exempted, however, was semiconductor chips -- a critical sector dominated by Taiwanese tech giant TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，半导体芯片这一领域却被豁免了——这是一个由台湾科技巨头台积电主导的关键行业。</p>
</div><p>That meant economic growth likely ballooned 7.4 percent last year, according to government estimates, which would be the fastest in 15 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着，根据政府的估计，经济增长可能在去年飙升了 7.4%，这将是 15 年来的最快增速。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We don't really feel that growth,&#34; Chris Wu, the sales director of machine toolmaker Litz Hitech Corp in Taiwan's manufacturing hub of Taichung, told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们并没有真正感受到这种增长，” 台湾台中市机床制造商 Litz Hitech Corp 的销售总监 Chris Wu 对法新社表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Overall the data looks strong, but for traditional industries, and for our company in particular, exports have declined -- we're down 30 percent.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“总体数据看起来强劲，但对于传统行业，尤其是我们公司，出口已经下降——我们下降了 30%。”</p>
</div><p>Trump initially announced a 32 percent tariff on Taiwanese exports, which was later lowered to 20 percent, as part of his sweep of measures against dozens of trade partners last April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普最初宣布对台湾出口征收 32% 的关税，后来在去年四月的贸易伙伴措施中降低至 20%。</p>
</div><p>A trade deal announced last week cut that again to 15 percent, in line with key manufacturing rivals South Korea and Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周宣布的贸易协议将这一关税再次降低至 15%，与主要制造竞争对手韩国和日本保持一致。</p>
</div><p>While it was good news for traditional manufacturers, Wu said it was not a panacea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这对传统制造商来说是个好消息，但吴表示这并不是灵丹妙药。</p>
</div><p>- 'Miserable' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- '悲惨' -</p>
</div><p>Overseas demand for Litz Hitech's precision tools and processing machines hasn't recovered, and a 15 percent tariff is still nearly three times the company's profit margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Litz Hitech 的精密工具和加工机器的海外需求尚未恢复，15% 的关税仍然是公司利润率的近三倍。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Wu said, the Taiwan dollar was stronger than the won, yen and euro, meaning Taiwanese exports are more expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，吴表示，台币比韩元、日元和欧元更强，这意味着台湾的出口变得更加昂贵。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't think there is a single Taiwanese machine toolmaker that can negotiate to absorb (the tariff) in full -- maybe two to three percent, but absorbing everything is impossible,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为没有一家台湾机床制造商能够完全吸收（关税）——也许能吸收 2% 到 3%，但完全吸收是不可能的，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Our company can't absorb even one percent.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们公司甚至无法吸收 1%。”</p>
</div><p>Taiwan's information and communication technology (ICT) sector, which includes semiconductor chips, has become by far the biggest driver of the island's export-dependent economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾的信息和通信技术（ICT）行业，包括半导体芯片，已成为该岛出口依赖型经济的最大驱动力。</p>
</div><p>Data for last year laid bare the stark difference in fortunes for tech and more traditional industries, with ICT exports soaring, while metals, plastics and metal-cutting machine tools were all lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年的数据清楚地显示了科技行业与传统行业之间的巨大差异，ICT 出口激增，而金属、塑料和金属切削机床的出口则都在下降。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Last year's situation was miserable, very miserable,&#34; Jerry Liu, chairman of the Taichung Importers and Exporters Chamber of Commerce, told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“去年的情况非常悲惨，” 台中市进出口商会会长 Jerry Liu 对法新社表示。</p>
</div><p>Taiwan's reliance on AI has left some experts worried about the economic impact if the bubble of excitement around the technology were to burst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾对人工智能的依赖让一些专家担心，如果围绕该技术的兴奋泡沫破裂，经济将受到影响。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That's dangerous,&#34; said Chen Been-lon, a research fellow and professor in the Institute of Economics at Academia Sinica.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这很危险，” 中央研究院经济研究所研究员兼教授陈炳龙说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But what can you do? You cannot force people not to invest in semiconductors.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“但你能做什么呢？你不能强迫人们不投资于半导体。”</p>
</div><p>- 'Gritting my teeth' -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- '咬紧牙关' -</p>
</div><p>Taiwan hopes its semiconductor industry remains protected from Trump's tariffs after the trade deal with Washington committed Taiwanese chip and tech businesses to invest up to $500 billion on US soil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾希望其半导体行业在与华盛顿的贸易协议后继续免受特朗普关税的影响，该协议承诺台湾的芯片和科技企业在美国投资高达 5000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>However, a potential US Supreme Court ruling against Trump's power to apply levies could upend the agreement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美国最高法院可能对特朗普施加关税的权力作出裁决，这可能会颠覆该协议。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If it's unconstitutional... the current negotiated result may need to be redone,&#34; said Wu Meng-tao, an economist at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, raising the risk of tariffs on the ICT sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果这违宪……当前的谈判结果可能需要重新进行，” 台湾经济研究院经济学家吴孟涛表示，增加了对 ICT 行业征收关税的风险。</p>
</div><p>Many in Taiwan's traditional manufacturing sector, including Litz Hitech, have put employees on unpaid leave or reduced their working hours. Wu, the sales director, estimates thousands are affected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾传统制造业的许多人，包括 Litz Hitech，已将员工置于无薪假期或减少工作时间。销售总监吴估计有数千人受到影响。</p>
</div><p>Conditions for small and medium-sized manufacturers could get tougher in 2026 if the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美国联邦储备委员会在 2026 年降息，中小型制造商的条件可能会变得更加严峻。</p>
</div><p>The Taiwan dollar, which has pulled back from its highs last year, could come under renewed upward pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台币在去年高点回落后，可能会面临新的上涨压力。</p>
</div><p>Liu said he was &#34;gritting my teeth and holding on&#34; -- and hoping that the government helped to &#34;stabilise the currency&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刘表示他正在 “咬紧牙关坚持下去”——并希望政府能帮助 “稳定货币”。</p>
</div><p>But manufacturers also needed to move with the times by adopting AI and offering customers &#34;comprehensive solutions&#34;, said Patrick Chen, chairman of the Taiwan Machine Tools and Accessory Builders' Association.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但制造商也需要与时俱进，采用人工智能并为客户提供 “综合解决方案”，台湾机床及配件制造商协会会长 Patrick Chen 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Simply selling standalone machines or individual pieces of equipment is a business model of the past.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“单纯销售独立机器或单个设备是过去的商业模式。”</p>
</div><p>joy/amj/dan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>joy/amj/dan</p>
</div>

增长在哪里？：台湾的传统制造商错失了出口繁荣的机会