<p>美国的保证金债务在 12 月份再次上升，连续第七个月创下投资者杠杆的记录。</p>
<p>来自 <strong>金融业监管局</strong>（FINRA）的数据显示，债务环比增长 0.9%，达到 1.23 万亿美元，标志着连续第八个月的增长。从年度来看，保证金债务增长了 36.3%，显示出投资者在最近的股市反弹中对借款的依赖程度。</p>
<p>尽管标准普尔 500 指数在近期高位基本持平，但这种持续上升的趋势使市场在历史上更容易受到突然回调的影响。</p>
<h3>保证金债务的风险</h3>
<p>保证金债务是指投资者通过保证金账户向经纪人借款以购买证券。正如 FINRA 所解释的，T 法规允许经纪人在交易开始时借出股票购买价格的 50%，而 FINRA 的维持规则通常要求保证金账户的权益不得低于证券当前市场价值的 25%。</p>
<p>如果价格下跌且权益低于阈值，经纪人将要求额外现金，发出保证金追缴通知。未能满足这一要求将触发强制平仓，自动扣押并出售头寸以恢复权益水平。</p>
<p>这些机制在市场下跌时会造成压力。随着价格下跌，强制卖出会迅速解除杠杆。最近一个显著的例子是去年十月的比特币。价格的急剧下跌引发了加密相关保证金产品的广泛强制去杠杆，触发了 $193 亿的清算。</p>
<p>今天的保证金债务水平在投资者现金缓冲方面也显得突出。净投资者信用的衡量标准——即从现金余额中减去保证金债务——仍然深度为负，表明投资者整体上欠的债务远远超过他们持有的流动资金。这种不平衡使得在不触发强制卖出的情况下，吸收波动的空间变得更小。</p>
<h3>特朗普的限制性想法</h3>
<p>当市场修正时，投资者争相寻找更多现金作为抵押，未来可能会发现更少的资金来源。</p>
<p>今天在达沃斯发表讲话时，<strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统批评了信用卡利率，并提到计划让国会将利率上限设定为 10%。</p>
<p>&#34;他们向美国人收取 28%、30%、31%、32% 的利率，&#34;特朗普 说。&#34;我们怎么会变成这样？&#34;</p>
<p>这一提案可能对零售投资者产生不均衡的影响。保留信用卡和额度的高质量借款人可能会获得更便宜的短期借款。因此，他们仍然可以利用这一高风险工具来应对保证金追缴。</p>
<p>但对于风险较高的借款人，设定上限可能导致额度减少或账户关闭，切断紧急信用的获取。具有讽刺意味的是，这些投资者往往是最容易受到保证金追缴影响的，且最难以承受强制去杠杆。</p>
<p>对此提案，<strong>摩根大通</strong> 首席执行官 <strong>杰米·戴蒙</strong> 直言不讳，称该提案是一个&#34;经济灾难。&#34;</p>
<p>&#34;这将使 80% 的美国人失去信用，而这正是他们的备用信用，&#34;他说，并补充说，后果将对零售商、旅游公司和市政当局造成影响，影响程度与银行相当。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

金融业 ETF - SPDR

金融业 ETF - Vanguard

美国经纪商&证券交易所 ETF - iShares

摩根大通

金融指数 MSCI ETF - Fidelity

<p>美国的保证金债务在 12 月份达到了创纪录的 1.23 万亿美元，标志着连续第八个月增长，这引发了人们对投资者杠杆和市场脆弱性的担忧。特朗普总统提议将信用卡利率上限设定为 10%，这可能会对零售投资者产生不同的影响。虽然高质量的借款人可能会受益，但风险较高的借款人可能会面临信用获取减少，从而加剧他们对保证金追缴的脆弱性。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙批评了这一提议，警告称这可能会成为影响多个行业的 “经济灾难”</p>

<p>U.S. margin debt rose again in December, extending a relentless climb in investor leverage to a record for the seventh consecutive month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的保证金债务在 12 月份再次上升，连续第七个月创下投资者杠杆的记录。</p>
</div><p>Data from the <strong>Financial Industry Regulatory Authority</strong> (FINRA) shows that debt increased 0.9% month over month to $1.23 trillion, marking the eighth straight monthly increase. On a yearly basis, margin debt is up 36.3%, showing how much investors relied on borrowed money during the latest equity rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 <strong>金融业监管局</strong>（FINRA）的数据显示，债务环比增长 0.9%，达到 1.23 万亿美元，标志着连续第八个月的增长。从年度来看，保证金债务增长了 36.3%，显示出投资者在最近的股市反弹中对借款的依赖程度。</p>
</div><p>The steady rise has occurred even as the S&amp;P 500 has largely flattened near recent highs, a combination that historically has left markets more vulnerable to abrupt pullbacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管标准普尔 500 指数在近期高位基本持平，但这种持续上升的趋势使市场在历史上更容易受到突然回调的影响。</p>
</div><h3>The Peril Of Margin Debt</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>保证金债务的风险</h3>
</div><p>Margin debt represents money investors borrow from their brokers through margin accounts to purchase securities. As FINRA explains, Regulation T allows brokers to lend up to 50% of the purchase price of a stock at initiation, while FINRA maintenance rules generally require that equity in a margin account not fall below 25% of the securities' current market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保证金债务是指投资者通过保证金账户向经纪人借款以购买证券。正如 FINRA 所解释的，T 法规允许经纪人在交易开始时借出股票购买价格的 50%，而 FINRA 的维持规则通常要求保证金账户的权益不得低于证券当前市场价值的 25%。</p>
</div><p>If prices fall and equity drops below the threshold, brokers will demand additional cash, issuing the margin call. Failure to meet it triggers forced liquidations, seizing and selling positions automatically to restore equity levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果价格下跌且权益低于阈值，经纪人将要求额外现金，发出保证金追缴通知。未能满足这一要求将触发强制平仓，自动扣押并出售头寸以恢复权益水平。</p>
</div><p>These mechanics are a source of market stress during selloffs. As prices decline, forced selling triggers a rapid unwind of leverage. The most notable recent example is Bitcoin last October. A sharp price drop sparked a widespread forced deleveraging across crypto-linked margin products, triggering a $19.3 billion liquidation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些机制在市场下跌时会造成压力。随着价格下跌，强制卖出会迅速解除杠杆。最近一个显著的例子是去年十月的比特币。价格的急剧下跌引发了加密相关保证金产品的广泛强制去杠杆，触发了 $193 亿的清算。</p>
</div><p>Today's margin debt level also stands out relative to investor cash buffers. Measures of net investor credit—which subtract margin debt from cash balances—remain deeply negative, indicating that investors, in aggregate, owe far more than they hold in ready liquidity. That imbalance leaves less room to absorb volatility without triggering forced selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的保证金债务水平在投资者现金缓冲方面也显得突出。净投资者信用的衡量标准——即从现金余额中减去保证金债务——仍然深度为负，表明投资者整体上欠的债务远远超过他们持有的流动资金。这种不平衡使得在不触发强制卖出的情况下，吸收波动的空间变得更小。</p>
</div><h3>Trump's Restrictive Ideas</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>特朗普的限制性想法</h3>
</div><p>When the market corrects, and investors scramble to find more cash for collateral, there might be fewer places to find it going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当市场修正时，投资者争相寻找更多现金作为抵押，未来可能会发现更少的资金来源。</p>
</div><p>Speaking today in Davos, President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> has criticized credit card rates, mentioning a plan to get Congress to cap the interest at 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天在达沃斯发表讲话时，<strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统批评了信用卡利率，并提到计划让国会将利率上限设定为 10%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;They charge Americans interest rates of 28%, 30%, 31%, 32%,&#34; Trump said. &#34;Whatever happened to usury?&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;他们向美国人收取 28%、30%、31%、32% 的利率，&#34;特朗普 说。&#34;我们怎么会变成这样？&#34;</p>
</div><p>The proposal could create uneven implications for retail investors. High-quality borrowers who retain their cards and limits might actually get cheaper short-term borrowing. Thus, they could still use this risky vehicle to cover margin calls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一提案可能对零售投资者产生不均衡的影响。保留信用卡和额度的高质量借款人可能会获得更便宜的短期借款。因此，他们仍然可以利用这一高风险工具来应对保证金追缴。</p>
</div><p>But for riskier borrowers, a cap could lead to reduced limits or closed accounts, cutting off access to emergency credit. Ironically, those investors are often the most vulnerable to margin calls and the least able to withstand forced deleveraging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于风险较高的借款人，设定上限可能导致额度减少或账户关闭，切断紧急信用的获取。具有讽刺意味的是，这些投资者往往是最容易受到保证金追缴影响的，且最难以承受强制去杠杆。</p>
</div><p>Responding to the idea, <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> CEO <strong>Jamie Dimon</strong> has been blunt, calling the proposal an &#34; economic disaster.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对此提案，<strong>摩根大通</strong> 首席执行官 <strong>杰米·戴蒙</strong> 直言不讳，称该提案是一个&#34;经济灾难。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;It would remove credit from 80% of Americans, and that is their back-up credit,&#34; he said, adding that the fallout would hit retailers, travel companies, and municipalities as much as banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这将使 80% 的美国人失去信用，而这正是他们的备用信用，&#34;他说，并补充说，后果将对零售商、旅游公司和市政当局造成影响，影响程度与银行相当。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

特朗普的信用卡攻击与高达 1.23 万亿美元的投资者杠杆发生碰撞