<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="540" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源</strong></h3>
<p>昨天商品市场的大动作是天然气，前一个月的亨利中心期货上涨了 25%。这在周二也出现了类似的上涨。亨利中心本周迄今已上涨超过 50%，原因是美国出现寒冷天气。这导致取暖需求激增，并引发了对德克萨斯州等南方地区可能出现供应中断的担忧。潜在影响是显著的。我们只需回顾 2021 年 2 月的冬季风暴，当时美国天然气产量创下历史上最大月度下降，环比下降约 7%。</p>
<p>天然气的上涨让投机者感到意外。最新的持仓数据显示，截至上周二，投机者在亨利中心持有 104,000 手的净空头，而总空头则是自 2024 年 11 月以来的最高水平。因此，空头回补加剧了本周的上涨力度。</p>
<p>然而，美国天然气库存仍然充足。最新数据显示，截至 1 月 9 日，库存为 3.19 万亿立方英尺，同比增长 1%，也比 5 年平均水平高出 3.4%。这表明此次上涨应该是短暂的，尽管很大程度上取决于风暴影响的严重程度。</p>
<p>美国市场的上涨对全球天然气市场产生了连锁反应。在欧洲，TTF 昨日收盘上涨超过 9%，短暂突破 40 欧元/兆瓦时，创下自 2025 年 6 月以来的最高水平。欧洲市场也面临寒冷天气和紧张的库存，这支撑了价格。美国的供应担忧只会加剧这些忧虑，因为可能会影响美国液化天然气流向欧洲。考虑到欧盟天然气库存目前仅为 48% 满，寒冷天气的预测和供应中断的风险表明，市场波动性在短期内可能仍将保持高位。</p>
<p>TTF 的最新持仓数据显示，基金在市场上积极买入，在上一个报告周内，从 55.1 太瓦时的净空头转变为 57.7 太瓦时的净多头。这一变化主要是由于空头回补和新多头进入市场的共同推动。</p>
<p>昨天油市相对平静，ICE 布伦特原油收盘上涨不到 0.5%。美国与欧盟之间贸易紧张局势的缓和在特朗普总统放弃对格林兰征收关税的威胁后为市场提供了一些支持。</p>
<p>国际能源署（IEA）每月油市报告中也有一些支持因素。该机构将 2026 年的石油需求增长预期从 86 万桶/日上调至 93 万桶/日，反映出经济状况的正常化和油价的降低。然而，IEA 仍预计市场在 2026 年前将保持大幅过剩。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>英国通胀预计在 4 月将降至 2%，尽管最近有所上升</p>
<p>外汇日报：不信任美元的抛售</p>
<p>利率快讯：收益率飙升，但水平远未过高</p>

美国近 12 月期天然气 ETF

2 倍做多彭博天然气 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空彭博天然气 ETF - ProShares

美国天然气 ETF

LNGZ

天然气股指数 ETF - First Trust

<p>天然气价格在美国寒冷天气的影响下飙升了 25%，亨利中心期货本周上涨超过 50%，主要由于取暖需求增加和供应担忧。投机者措手不及，导致了空头回补。美国天然气库存仍然充足，但根据风暴的严重程度，这种情况可能是短暂的。此次涨势影响了全球市场，欧洲天然气价格也随之上涨。石油市场保持稳定，受到美欧贸易紧张局势缓解和国际能源署（IEA）修订的需求增长预期的支持，尽管预计到 2026 年将出现过剩</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源</strong></h3>
</div><p>The big move in commodity markets yesterday was natural gas, with front-month Henry Hub futures surging 25%. This followed a similar move higher on Tuesday. Henry Hub has rallied by more than 50% so far this week amid a cold freeze across the US. This is leading to a surge in heating demand and raising concerns about potential supply disruptions amid freezing conditions as far south as Texas. The potential impact is significant. We just need to look back to the February 2021 winter storm, when US natural gas output saw its largest monthly decline on record, falling around 7% month-on-month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天商品市场的大动作是天然气，前一个月的亨利中心期货上涨了 25%。这在周二也出现了类似的上涨。亨利中心本周迄今已上涨超过 50%，原因是美国出现寒冷天气。这导致取暖需求激增，并引发了对德克萨斯州等南方地区可能出现供应中断的担忧。潜在影响是显著的。我们只需回顾 2021 年 2 月的冬季风暴，当时美国天然气产量创下历史上最大月度下降，环比下降约 7%。</p>
</div><p>The move in gas has caught speculators off guard. The most recent positioning data shows that speculators held a net short of 104k lots in Henry Hub as of last Tuesday, while the gross short stood at its largest since November 2024. So, short covering is adding to the move's intensity this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然气的上涨让投机者感到意外。最新的持仓数据显示，截至上周二，投机者在亨利中心持有 104,000 手的净空头，而总空头则是自 2024 年 11 月以来的最高水平。因此，空头回补加剧了本周的上涨力度。</p>
</div><p>However, US natural gas storage is still comfortable. The latest data shows that storage stood at 3.19Tcf as of 9 January, 1% higher year-on-year and also 3.4% above the 5-year average. This suggests the move should be fairly short-lived, though much will depend on the severity of the storm's impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美国天然气库存仍然充足。最新数据显示，截至 1 月 9 日，库存为 3.19 万亿立方英尺，同比增长 1%，也比 5 年平均水平高出 3.4%。这表明此次上涨应该是短暂的，尽管很大程度上取决于风暴影响的严重程度。</p>
</div><p>The rally in the US market has had a ripple effect across global gas markets. In Europe, TTF settled more than 9% higher yesterday and briefly broke above EUR40/MWh, its highest level since June 2025. The European market has been dealing with its own cold weather and tight storage, which supported prices. Supply concerns in the US will only add to these worries, given the potential for a disruption in US LNG flow to Europe. Given that EU gas storage is now just 48% full, forecasts of cold weather and the risk of supply disruptions suggest market volatility will likely remain elevated in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国市场的上涨对全球天然气市场产生了连锁反应。在欧洲，TTF 昨日收盘上涨超过 9%，短暂突破 40 欧元/兆瓦时，创下自 2025 年 6 月以来的最高水平。欧洲市场也面临寒冷天气和紧张的库存，这支撑了价格。美国的供应担忧只会加剧这些忧虑，因为可能会影响美国液化天然气流向欧洲。考虑到欧盟天然气库存目前仅为 48% 满，寒冷天气的预测和供应中断的风险表明，市场波动性在短期内可能仍将保持高位。</p>
</div><p>The latest positioning data for TTF shows that funds have been aggressively buying the market, shifting from a net short of 55.1TWh to a net long of 57.7TWh over the last reporting week. This move was driven fairly equally by short covering and fresh longs entering the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TTF 的最新持仓数据显示，基金在市场上积极买入，在上一个报告周内，从 55.1 太瓦时的净空头转变为 57.7 太瓦时的净多头。这一变化主要是由于空头回补和新多头进入市场的共同推动。</p>
</div><p>Oil markets were calmer yesterday, with ICE Brent settling just shy of 0.5% higher. A de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and EU provided some support to the market after President Trump backed down on his threat of tariffs over Greenland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天油市相对平静，ICE 布伦特原油收盘上涨不到 0.5%。美国与欧盟之间贸易紧张局势的缓和在特朗普总统放弃对格林兰征收关税的威胁后为市场提供了一些支持。</p>
</div><p>There were also some supportive factors in the IEA’s monthly oil market report. The agency revised its oil demand growth estimates for 2026 from 860k b/d to 930k b/d, reflecting more normalised economic conditions and lower oil prices. However, the IEA still expects the market to remain in large surplus through 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署（IEA）每月油市报告中也有一些支持因素。该机构将 2026 年的石油需求增长预期从 86 万桶/日上调至 93 万桶/日，反映出经济状况的正常化和油价的降低。然而，IEA 仍预计市场在 2026 年前将保持大幅过剩。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>UK Inflation Likely To Fall To 2% In April Despite Latest Uptick</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国通胀预计在 4 月将降至 2%，尽管最近有所上升</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Not Trusting The Dollar Sell-Off</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇日报：不信任美元的抛售</p>
</div><p>Rates Spark: Yields Have Spiked, But Levels Are Far From Overly Elevated</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率快讯：收益率飙升，但水平远未过高</p>
</div>

商品动态：美国天然气因冰冻天气而飙升