<p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>交易员凯文·缪尔正在出售白银的看涨价差，并购买能源和国际股票</p>
<p>一年前，凯文·缪尔在看涨黄金和白银时感到孤独。现在，他觉得自己只是人群中的一张面孔</p>
<p>一位一直看涨白银的交易员表示，白银已经见顶，本周的市场表现证明了他的观点。</p>
<p>凯文·缪尔，前机构交易员，现在是《宏观游客》博客的作者，在玛吉·莱克的《市场对话》播客中表达了他对这种金属的看法。</p>
<p>白银期货（SI00）在过去 52 周内上涨了三倍，周四早盘价格为 93.61 美元。</p>
<p>缪尔强调 “这纯粹是我作为交易员的看法”，而不是对白银投资案例的正式否定，他只是认为价格走势看起来疲软。他表示希望在重新考虑头寸之前看到 20 美元的回调。</p>
<p>目前，缪尔的策略是进行适度看跌的交易，出售看涨价差，即卖出一个较低行使价的看涨期权，同时买入一个较高行使价的看涨期权。</p>
<p>缪尔引用了本周白银的价格行为作为他直觉的依据。尽管黄金（GC00）在格林兰危机中创下新高，但白银期货合约几乎没有波动。缪尔解释说，明显的交易通常会让人感到不安。</p>
<p>尽管仍然对黄金（GC00）保持长期的喜爱——“我可以看到黄金涨到 8000 美元、10000 美元”，缪尔展现了逆向投资者的直觉，这也影响了他目前对能源投资主题的热情。他认为 “能源非常便宜”，能源股票 XLE 就像去年黄金股票一样。</p>
<p>为了加强他的论点，他引用了吉姆·格兰特的名言：“成功的投资是让每个人都在后期同意你。”</p>
<p>在倡导不受欢迎的能源股票时，缪尔越来越担心他认为对科技行业和特别是 Mag7 MAGS 的投资风险正在增加。他认为这些股票被过度持有且价格昂贵。“对未来的乐观情绪已经被定价到极致，长期来看这些股票不可能成为伟大的投资，” 他说。</p>
<p>在谈话中，缪尔明确表示他厌恶拥挤的交易。他认为 Mag7 交易是 “破产的” 和 “泡沫的”。他查看纳斯达克 100 指数（NDX），发现它已经四个月没有创下新高，而代表纳斯达克下一个一百大股票的交易所交易基金 QQQJ 正在创下新纪录。</p>
<p>缪尔还指出，尽管科技股在互联网泡沫破裂时崩溃，但投资者可能忘记了其他行业，如公用事业、保险和运输在同一时间内提供了强劲的回报。</p>
<p>缪尔识别出的另一个广泛的结构性趋势是，美国不再是投资者唯一的选择。他强调，去年标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）表现适中，但来自欧洲 XX:SXXE、日本（NIY00）和新兴市场的其他市场表现更好，尤其是当以美元计算其回报时。</p>
<p>在过去 52 周内，iShares MSCI 全球所有国家 ETF 上涨了 30%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 12%。</p>
<p>缪尔概述了他的整体理论：过去，外国国家向美国出售商品，获得美元作为回报，但并没有将这些钱兑换成自己的货币，而是将其回收再投资于美国金融资产。</p>
<p>他警告说，这种情况不再会发生。作为例子，在本周的地缘政治动荡中，投资者在寻求避险资产时实际上是抛售美元，转而购买欧元（EURUSD）。</p>
<p>展望未来，缪尔预计国际投资者将更倾向于将这些美元重新兑换回自己的货币，以试图刺激他们的经济，减少对美国增长的依赖。缪尔认为，随着流入美国的现金流减少，购买世界其他地方的股票是有意义的，他对美元的看跌立场进一步强化了这一观点。</p>
<p>——朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>01-22-26 0758ET</p>

<p>交易员凯文·缪尔（Kevin Muir）认为银价已经见顶，并以近期的价格走势作为证据。他正在出售银的看涨价差，同时偏向能源和国际股票。缪尔指出，银期货在过去一年中上涨了三倍，但似乎已经疲软，暗示可能会回调至 20 美元。他对被高估的科技股表示担忧，并强调国际市场的吸引力日益增加，因为投资者可能会转向非美国资产。缪尔的整体策略反映出一种逆向投资的思维，主张投资能源，并对科技领域的拥挤交易保持谨慎</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>Trader Kevin Muir is selling call spreads on silver and buying energy and international stocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员凯文·缪尔正在出售白银的看涨价差，并购买能源和国际股票</p>
</div><p>A year ago, Kevin Muir felt alone being so bullish gold and silver. Now, he feels like he's just a face in the crowd</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一年前，凯文·缪尔在看涨黄金和白银时感到孤独。现在，他觉得自己只是人群中的一张面孔</p>
</div><p>A trader who's been bullish silver says it's topped out, and that the action this week proves his case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位一直看涨白银的交易员表示，白银已经见顶，本周的市场表现证明了他的观点。</p>
</div><p>Kevin Muir, a former institutional trader and now author of the Macro Tourist blog, expressed his view on the metal in Maggie Lake's &#34;Talking Markets&#34; podcast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯文·缪尔，前机构交易员，现在是《宏观游客》博客的作者，在玛吉·莱克的《市场对话》播客中表达了他对这种金属的看法。</p>
</div><p>Silver futures (SI00) have tripled over the last 52 weeks, to $93.61, in early action on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银期货（SI00）在过去 52 周内上涨了三倍，周四早盘价格为 93.61 美元。</p>
</div><p>Muir is at pains to emphasize &#34;this is purely the trader in me speaking&#34; and rather than a formal repudiation of the investment case for silver, he just thinks the price action looks tired. He said he'd like to see a $20 retracement before reconsidering the position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缪尔强调 “这纯粹是我作为交易员的看法”，而不是对白银投资案例的正式否定，他只是认为价格走势看起来疲软。他表示希望在重新考虑头寸之前看到 20 美元的回调。</p>
</div><p>For now, Muir's tactic is putting on the modestly bearish trade of selling a call spread, which is selling a lower strike call while simultaneously buying a higher-priced one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，缪尔的策略是进行适度看跌的交易，出售看涨价差，即卖出一个较低行使价的看涨期权，同时买入一个较高行使价的看涨期权。</p>
</div><p>Muir cited this week's price behavior in silver as justification for his hunch. While gold (GC00) has forged new highs amid the Greenland crisis, the silver futures contract has scarcely budged. Trades that are obvious usually feel wrong, Muir explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缪尔引用了本周白银的价格行为作为他直觉的依据。尽管黄金（GC00）在格林兰危机中创下新高，但白银期货合约几乎没有波动。缪尔解释说，明显的交易通常会让人感到不安。</p>
</div><p>While still retaining a long-term fondness for gold (GC00)- &#34;I could see gold going to $8,000, $10,000,&#34; - Muir displays the instincts of a contrarian and this informs his current enthusiasm for the energy investment theme. He reckons, &#34;energy is dirt cheap&#34; and energy stocks XLE are what gold stocks were like last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管仍然对黄金（GC00）保持长期的喜爱——“我可以看到黄金涨到 8000 美元、10000 美元”，缪尔展现了逆向投资者的直觉，这也影响了他目前对能源投资主题的热情。他认为 “能源非常便宜”，能源股票 XLE 就像去年黄金股票一样。</p>
</div><p>To reinforce his argument, he quotes Jim Grant's maxim: &#34;Successful investing is about having everyone agree with you - later.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了加强他的论点，他引用了吉姆·格兰特的名言：“成功的投资是让每个人都在后期同意你。”</p>
</div><p>While advocating unfashionable energy stocks, Muir is increasingly concerned about what he thinks are mounting risks to betting on the technology sector and Mag7 MAGS in particular. He thinks they are over-owned and expensive. &#34;The optimism about the future is so well-priced in that there's zero chance that over the long run these end up being great investments,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在倡导不受欢迎的能源股票时，缪尔越来越担心他认为对科技行业和特别是 Mag7 MAGS 的投资风险正在增加。他认为这些股票被过度持有且价格昂贵。“对未来的乐观情绪已经被定价到极致，长期来看这些股票不可能成为伟大的投资，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>During the conversation, Muir makes it clear he abhors crowded trades. He thinks the Mag7 trade is &#34;broke&#34; and &#34;frothy.&#34; He looks at Nasdaq-100 NDX index and finds it hasn't made a high for four months while the exchange-traded fund representing the next one hundred largest stocks on Nasdaq QQQJ is setting fresh records.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在谈话中，缪尔明确表示他厌恶拥挤的交易。他认为 Mag7 交易是 “破产的” 和 “泡沫的”。他查看纳斯达克 100 指数（NDX），发现它已经四个月没有创下新高，而代表纳斯达克下一个一百大股票的交易所交易基金 QQQJ 正在创下新纪录。</p>
</div><p>Muir also noted that while tech stocks crashed during the dot-com bubble's burst, investors might have forgotten is that other sectors, like utilities, insurance and transportation delivered powerful returns at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缪尔还指出，尽管科技股在互联网泡沫破裂时崩溃，但投资者可能忘记了其他行业，如公用事业、保险和运输在同一时间内提供了强劲的回报。</p>
</div><p>One other broad structural trend Muir identifies is that the U.S. is no longer the only game in town for investors. He stresses that last year, the S&amp;P 500 SPX index did moderately well but other markets from Europe XX:SXXE to Japan (NIY00) and emerging markets did much better, and better still when their returns are calculated in dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缪尔识别出的另一个广泛的结构性趋势是，美国不再是投资者唯一的选择。他强调，去年标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）表现适中，但来自欧洲 XX:SXXE、日本（NIY00）和新兴市场的其他市场表现更好，尤其是当以美元计算其回报时。</p>
</div><p>Over the last 52 weeks, the iShares MSCI all-country world ETF has gained 30%, versus 12% for the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 52 周内，iShares MSCI 全球所有国家 ETF 上涨了 30%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 12%。</p>
</div><p>Muir outlines his overall theory that in the past, foreign countries sold stuff to America, received dollars in return but rather than convert that money into their own currencies, they recycled it into U.S. financial assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缪尔概述了他的整体理论：过去，外国国家向美国出售商品，获得美元作为回报，但并没有将这些钱兑换成自己的货币，而是将其回收再投资于美国金融资产。</p>
</div><p>That's no longer going to be the case, he warns. As an example, during this week's geopolitical tumult, the dollar was actually sold in favor of the euro (EURUSD) when investors sought safe-haven assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他警告说，这种情况不再会发生。作为例子，在本周的地缘政治动荡中，投资者在寻求避险资产时实际上是抛售美元，转而购买欧元（EURUSD）。</p>
</div><p>Going forward, Muir anticipates a much greater fashion for international investors to repatriate those dollars back into their own currencies as they try to boost their economies and be less dependent on U.S. growth. Buying stocks in the rest of the world, as fewer cash flows are recycled into the U.S., makes sense to Muir and his bearish stance on the dollar reinforces the opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，缪尔预计国际投资者将更倾向于将这些美元重新兑换回自己的货币，以试图刺激他们的经济，减少对美国增长的依赖。缪尔认为，随着流入美国的现金流减少，购买世界其他地方的股票是有意义的，他对美元的看跌立场进一步强化了这一观点。</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>01-22-26 0758ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-22-26 0758ET</p>
</div>

This contrarian trader says silver has topped out - and this week's action proves it

Dow Jones

贵金属股 ETF -ETFS

黄金 ETF - iShares

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

Sprott Silver Mnrs & Physical Silver ETF

德银贵金属基金 - PowerShares

2 倍做多标普能源行业指数 ETF - ProShares

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多白银 ETF - ProShares

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

Silverbox Corp IV

这位逆向交易者称白银已经达到顶峰，而本周的市场表现证明了这一点